rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 169.

btc6000

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Quote from: RAJSALLIN on June 10, 2014, 08:35:55 AM

...Also the number of transactions/day are still worrying but I guess it's likely they will follow when/if prices start climbing fast

Worrying compared to what?

Number of transactions excluding popular addresses is ~3x what it was this time last year.

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?showDataPoints=false×pan=1year&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=1&address=

thezerg

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Quote from: RAJSALLIN on June 10, 2014, 08:35:55 AM

So if nearly everyone is expecting the same thing (another blow off top within 2 months) does this mean you are all going to be buying like crazy soon or are you expecting new buyers to enter in mass soon? Feels kind of odd. Also the number of transactions/day are still worrying but I guess it's likely they will follow when/if prices start climbing fast

It is very possible that we are more like at Jan 15, 2012 at this point. In other words, we've recovered from the oversold condition but will be basically flat (slowly creeping up) for another year -- probably until there's another minor meltdown in the traditional banking sector.

madmat

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Quote from: piramida on June 10, 2014, 08:45:56 AM

Quote from: RAJSALLIN on June 10, 2014, 08:35:55 AM

So if nearly everyone is expecting the same thing

you should understand that this forum != everyone. the wider definition of "everyone" is yet undecided, they usually jump in during the rally and until the very top when media coverage is peaking. people here, mostly, are already all-in.

Completely agree. Media coverage is near 0 at the moment : http://www.google.fr/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&cmpt=q

piramida

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Borsche

Quote from: RAJSALLIN on June 10, 2014, 08:35:55 AM

So if nearly everyone is expecting the same thing

you should understand that this forum != everyone. the wider definition of "everyone" is yet undecided, they usually jump in during the rally and until the very top when media coverage is peaking. people here, mostly, are already all-in.

RAJSALLIN

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So if nearly everyone is expecting the same thing (another blow off top within 2 months) does this mean you are all going to be buying like crazy soon or are you expecting new buyers to enter in mass soon? Feels kind of odd. Also the number of transactions/day are still worrying but I guess it's likely they will follow when/if prices start climbing fast

BitChick

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Quote from: dnaleor on June 10, 2014, 04:56:10 AM

Quote from: DieJohnny on June 10, 2014, 04:41:08 AM

Quote from: dnaleor on June 10, 2014, 04:26:34 AM

After that, we could see a short rally above 1000 USD followed by a small crash towards 950 USD or something (just below 1000 USD). (compare to the rally 130 -> 206 and crash towards 156 USD).
After that crash, we are ready to rally again towards 3000, 4000, 5000 who knows? Grin

206 to 156 is 25% not 5%

I think we are at this step right now, last of weak hands are gonna sell soon, we dip below 500, then off too 2000-2500.

206 to 156 is indeed more than 5%
But liquidity increased also.

Possible scenario will be rally towards 1050 and down to 900-950. It's really hard to predict the level a rally/dump will reach, but it's almost certain we won't go straight up towards 1200 USD starting tomorrow Wink

Thanks for posting that! Saying something is "almost certain" in Bitcoin is one way to cause the opposite to happen. Wink

ErisDiscordia

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Imposition of ORder = Escalation of Chaos

Quote from: dnaleor on June 10, 2014, 04:26:34 AM

I think we need to compare the current price range (640-660) with the 95 USD range back then. We will probably see a new rally with a conslidation around 800 USD (which will compare to the 120-130 USD in september).
After that, we could see a short rally above 1000 USD followed by a small crash towards 950 USD or something (just below 1000 USD). (compare to the rally 130 -> 206 and crash towards 156 USD).
After that crash, we are ready to rally again towards 3000, 4000, 5000 who knows? Grin

This is exactly what I am expecting.

So far none of my expectations came true Cool

dnaleor

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Quote from: DieJohnny on June 10, 2014, 04:41:08 AM

Quote from: dnaleor on June 10, 2014, 04:26:34 AM

After that, we could see a short rally above 1000 USD followed by a small crash towards 950 USD or something (just below 1000 USD). (compare to the rally 130 -> 206 and crash towards 156 USD).
After that crash, we are ready to rally again towards 3000, 4000, 5000 who knows? Grin

206 to 156 is 25% not 5%

I think we are at this step right now, last of weak hands are gonna sell soon, we dip below 500, then off too 2000-2500.

206 to 156 is indeed more than 5%
But liquidity increased also.

Possible scenario will be rally towards 1050 and down to 900-950. It's really hard to predict the level a rally/dump will reach, but it's almost certain we won't go straight up towards 1200 USD starting tomorrow Wink

dnaleor

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I am expecting at least 3000 USD: my log trenline gives this exchange rate at the end of the year. I would be surprised if we stay below the trendline during 2014 for the whole time.

edit: off course, the trendline changes with new data, but i doubt it goes down that much...

Todorius

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Quote from: DieJohnny on June 10, 2014, 04:41:08 AM

Quote from: dnaleor on June 10, 2014, 04:26:34 AM

After that, we could see a short rally above 1000 USD followed by a small crash towards 950 USD or something (just below 1000 USD). (compare to the rally 130 -> 206 and crash towards 156 USD).
After that crash, we are ready to rally again towards 3000, 4000, 5000 who knows? Grin

206 to 156 is 25% not 5%

I think we are at this step right now, last of weak hands are gonna sell soon, we dip below 500, then off too 2000-2500.

And that is a very conservative estimate. 0.4 units above the log trendline, as was the case during the last bubbles, would put us at least at 4000 right now, maybe more like 5000.
But of course, every bubble is different. Still, 2000-2500 feels pretty low.

DieJohnny

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Quote from: dnaleor on June 10, 2014, 04:26:34 AM

After that, we could see a short rally above 1000 USD followed by a small crash towards 950 USD or something (just below 1000 USD). (compare to the rally 130 -> 206 and crash towards 156 USD).
After that crash, we are ready to rally again towards 3000, 4000, 5000 who knows? Grin

206 to 156 is 25% not 5%

I think we are at this step right now, last of weak hands are gonna sell soon, we dip below 500, then off too 2000-2500.

Todorius

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Quote from: dnaleor on June 10, 2014, 04:26:34 AM

Quote from: Todorius on June 10, 2014, 03:56:25 AM

It looks like history does like to repeat itself again.
Feels a lot like September 2013. Back then, we had a stable 120 for 5-6 weeks and then lift-off.

It could very well be, that we'll have the same at 650. Stable for another 4 weeks, and then lift-off towards new highs.
Ok, we'd be a bit too late for the ATH, a month or so, but then again the deflation of this bubble took longer, which explains the delay.

I think the breakout will come suddenly and violently, none expecting it, same as last year. Then we'll move pretty fast upwards, 2 months later being at the 4-6$/mBTC range.

I think we need to compare the current price range (640-660) with the 95 USD range back then. We will probably see a new rally with a conslidation around 800 USD (which will compare to the 120-130 USD in september).
After that, we could see a short rally above 1000 USD followed by a small crash towards 950 USD or something (just below 1000 USD). (compare to the rally 130 -> 206 and crash towards 156 USD).
After that crash, we are ready to rally again towards 3000, 4000, 5000 who knows? Grin

A consolidation at 800 sure would be nice. The higher the launchpad, the higher the rocket will go

Your prediction makes also sense. It will be interesting either way Wink

dnaleor

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Quote from: Todorius on June 10, 2014, 03:56:25 AM

It looks like history does like to repeat itself again.
Feels a lot like September 2013. Back then, we had a stable 120 for 5-6 weeks and then lift-off.

It could very well be, that we'll have the same at 650. Stable for another 4 weeks, and then lift-off towards new highs.
Ok, we'd be a bit too late for the ATH, a month or so, but then again the deflation of this bubble took longer, which explains the delay.

I think the breakout will come suddenly and violently, none expecting it, same as last year. Then we'll move pretty fast upwards, 2 months later being at the 4-6$/mBTC range.

I think we need to compare the current price range (640-660) with the 95 USD range back then. We will probably see a new rally with a conslidation around 800 USD (which will compare to the 120-130 USD in september).
After that, we could see a short rally above 1000 USD followed by a small crash towards 950 USD or something (just below 1000 USD). (compare to the rally 130 -> 206 and crash towards 156 USD).
After that crash, we are ready to rally again towards 3000, 4000, 5000 who knows? Grin

Todorius

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It looks like history does like to repeat itself again.
Feels a lot like September 2013. Back then, we had a stable 120 for 5-6 weeks and then lift-off.

It could very well be, that we'll have the same at 650. Stable for another 4 weeks, and then lift-off towards new highs.
Ok, we'd be a bit too late for the ATH, a month or so, but then again the deflation of this bubble took longer, which explains the delay.

I think the breakout will come suddenly and violently, none expecting it, same as last year. Then we'll move pretty fast upwards, 2 months later being at the 4-6$/mBTC range.

eat_more_fruit

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Quote from: xxnewbiecoinerxx on June 05, 2014, 10:02:36 AM

how does this all MtGox scam affect the trendline and price predictions?

News do not immediately affect a long-term trend line. Eventually their effect, if any, gets absorbed into the trend line, which may be periodically recalculated for better fit (i.e. higher correlation coefficient).

zimmah

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Quote from: Asrael999 on June 05, 2014, 10:05:42 AM

Quote from: xxnewbiecoinerxx on June 05, 2014, 10:02:36 AM

How Bots Manipulated The Price Of Bitcoin Through "Massive Fraudulent Trading Activity" At MtGox
http://www.zerohedge.com/node/488930

quick post a story from 26th May, no one will notice.

Did you hear mt gox actually collapsed?

By the way we reached an all time high of 266 a while ago

Asrael999

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Quote from: xxnewbiecoinerxx on June 05, 2014, 10:02:36 AM

How Bots Manipulated The Price Of Bitcoin Through "Massive Fraudulent Trading Activity" At MtGox
http://www.zerohedge.com/node/488930

quick post a story from 26th May, no one will notice.

xxnewbiecoinerxx

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Risto, how does this all MtGox scam affect the trendline and price predictions?

How Bots Manipulated The Price Of Bitcoin Through "Massive Fraudulent Trading Activity" At MtGox
http://www.zerohedge.com/node/488930

kehtolo

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Quote from: MahaRamana on June 05, 2014, 09:43:14 AM

Quote from: kehtolo on June 05, 2014, 09:38:55 AM

Quote from: MahaRamana on June 05, 2014, 09:33:35 AM

CEO of Ebay says : " at PayPal, we’re going to have to integrate digital currencies into our wallet"

I think that's a pretty bullish comment.

and then have e-bay coin or something.. would be great if it was bitcoin.. and honestly speaking.. do you see a better alternative out there??

Why would ebay want to launch a new P2P blockchain ? I don't see how it could make sense for them.

Nah, you're right, neither do i! haha.. i was being cynical i guess.
They would need to use and already established crypto.. it doesn't imply that this will 100% be bitcoin, but it is THE most already established one out there.

Torque

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Quote from: MahaRamana on June 05, 2014, 09:43:14 AM

Quote from: kehtolo on June 05, 2014, 09:38:55 AM

Quote from: MahaRamana on June 05, 2014, 09:33:35 AM

CEO of Ebay says : " at PayPal, we’re going to have to integrate digital currencies into our wallet"

I think that's a pretty bullish comment.

and then have e-bay coin or something.. would be great if it was bitcoin.. and honestly speaking.. do you see a better alternative out there??

Why would ebay want to launch a new P2P blockchain ? I don't see how it could make sense for them.

Yeah, this. Also, why would the CEO say that he actually owns bitcoin, but then only integrate something else into PayPal? Wouldn't make sense.

Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 169. (Read 907229 times)