rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 167.

molecular

donator

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1019

Quote from: Pruden on June 12, 2014, 06:00:19 PM

Quote from: molecular on June 12, 2014, 05:45:07 PM

oh man, feds are auctioning off the silkroad coins..

Wouldn't this be too funny if this turned out the same way as the SR bust, subsequent "little fast crash" and rocket afterwards back in '13?

Wishful thinking at its worst. The SR bust took coins off the market, this movement returns the same amount. It's exactly the opposite effect. That's why the price rebounded in October: some smart people noticed the bust would increase the value of the floating bitcoins. We are not seeing a rebound now.

Yes, you're probably right, it's way too different a type of event.

However I don't understand how this is bearish news at all. It's not like the buyers of those coins will turn around and dump them on the market? Is it just because the demand will be expected to decrease? Did some entities cancel their "coin buying subscriptions" at bitstamp because he decided to buy some of the sr coins and now the selling from bitpay et al is stronger on stamp with that demand gone?

Pruden

hero member

Activity: 496

Merit: 500

Spanish Bitcoin trader

Quote from: molecular on June 12, 2014, 05:45:07 PM

oh man, feds are auctioning off the silkroad coins..

Wouldn't this be too funny if this turned out the same way as the SR bust, subsequent "little fast crash" and rocket afterwards back in '13?

Wishful thinking at its worst. The SR bust took coins off the market, this movement returns the same amount. It's exactly the opposite effect. That's why the price rebounded in October: some smart people noticed the bust would increase the value of the floating bitcoins. We are not seeing a rebound now.

RoadStress

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1007

http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/bitcoins/

rpitila how does this affect the TA?

molecular

donator

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1019

Quote from: molecular on June 12, 2014, 04:00:49 AM

Quote from: Todorius on June 11, 2014, 07:23:10 AM

Quote from: holomen on June 11, 2014, 05:04:02 AM

I could call Last 6 days a flat water.

Average Trade volume within that period seems to be similar to May1-May19.

I have a feeling we should be making leg up to 800 soon.

But who could tell when the storm begins?

Yes. And I can't emphasize enough how much that feels like September 2013, when we had to endure weeks and weeks of low price action and volume seemed to fade off into the depths of nothingness.
Yet, out of nowhere, a sudden burst of green showed up in mid October, the volume ever increasing. When this will happen is hard to know. We could go sideways for another month in the worst case, or a few more days in the best. Yet the leg to 800 will surely come at some point.

Out of nowhere? I attribute the October '13 runup to increased confidence after the SR bust.

Maybe we should bust SR2?

oh man, feds are auctioning off the silkroad coins..

Wouldn't this be too funny if this turned out the same way as the SR bust, subsequent "little fast crash" and rocket afterwards back in '13?

Erdogan

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1005

Quote from: eat_more_fruit on June 11, 2014, 11:44:17 AM

So, on the assumption there is a spectacular breakout in 2014 and >1 yr. hodlers on the SSS plan get to divest a small percentage, which assets would people here recommend to park the fiat in?

Bitcoin is still the best investment, so if you don't need to consume now, why not suspend the SSS divestment for one iteration.

Erdogan

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1005

Quote from: bananaControl on June 11, 2014, 10:52:13 AM

Quote from: wiltontilt on June 11, 2014, 10:46:05 AM

Quote from: Todorius on June 11, 2014, 07:23:10 AM

Quote from: holomen on June 11, 2014, 05:04:02 AM

I could call Last 6 days a flat water.

Average Trade volume within that period seems to be similar to May1-May19.

I have a feeling we should be making leg up to 800 soon.

But who could tell when the storm begins?

Yes. And I can't emphasize enough how much that feels like September 2013, when we had to endure weeks and weeks of low price action and volume seemed to fade off into the depths of nothingness.
Yet, out of nowhere, a sudden burst of green showed up in mid October, the volume ever increasing. When this will happen is hard to know. We could go sideways for another month in the worst case, or a few more days in the best. Yet the leg to 800 will surely come at some point.

Isn't this primarily the work of the willy bot? Is there any indication that this will happen naturally in the near future?

You almost make it sound like you think that other markets are not manipulated - like there actually is such a thing as a natural and pure market somewhere.

In the free market, it is allowed to try to fool the other traders, but the others are free to expect it and take countermeasures.

molecular

donator

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1019

Quote from: dnaleor on June 12, 2014, 04:54:29 AM

Quote from: molecular on June 12, 2014, 04:00:49 AM

Quote from: Todorius on June 11, 2014, 07:23:10 AM

Quote from: holomen on June 11, 2014, 05:04:02 AM

I could call Last 6 days a flat water.

Average Trade volume within that period seems to be similar to May1-May19.

I have a feeling we should be making leg up to 800 soon.

But who could tell when the storm begins?

Yes. And I can't emphasize enough how much that feels like September 2013, when we had to endure weeks and weeks of low price action and volume seemed to fade off into the depths of nothingness.
Yet, out of nowhere, a sudden burst of green showed up in mid October, the volume ever increasing. When this will happen is hard to know. We could go sideways for another month in the worst case, or a few more days in the best. Yet the leg to 800 will surely come at some point.

Out of nowhere? I attribute the October '13 runup to increased confidence after the SR bust.

Maybe we should bust SR2?

Indeed. When I saw the recovery, I became very bullish. In those days, bitcoin was not really mainstream yet. Anything could happen. People thought that SR was needed to create a large demand for BTC. In 24-48 hours BTC was back to the previous level!
I immedialty told everyone to BUY BUY BUY at that moment Cheesy

edit: I miss the feeling of the start of a rally Undecided

The start of a rally is more fun than the rally itself, in my opinion...

Those days were so exciting Grin

So true.

I really have no idea wether or when we will have that pleasure again. That just adds to the excitiment, should it really happen, of course.

Todorius

full member

Activity: 196

Merit: 100

Quote from: dnaleor on June 12, 2014, 04:54:29 AM

Quote from: molecular on June 12, 2014, 04:00:49 AM

Quote from: Todorius on June 11, 2014, 07:23:10 AM

Quote from: holomen on June 11, 2014, 05:04:02 AM

I could call Last 6 days a flat water.

Average Trade volume within that period seems to be similar to May1-May19.

I have a feeling we should be making leg up to 800 soon.

But who could tell when the storm begins?

Yes. And I can't emphasize enough how much that feels like September 2013, when we had to endure weeks and weeks of low price action and volume seemed to fade off into the depths of nothingness.
Yet, out of nowhere, a sudden burst of green showed up in mid October, the volume ever increasing. When this will happen is hard to know. We could go sideways for another month in the worst case, or a few more days in the best. Yet the leg to 800 will surely come at some point.

Out of nowhere? I attribute the October '13 runup to increased confidence after the SR bust.

Maybe we should bust SR2?

Indeed. When I saw the recovery, I became very bullish. In those days, bitcoin was not really mainstream yet. Anything could happen. People thought that SR was needed to create a large demand for BTC. In 24-48 hours BTC was back to the previous level!
I immedialty told everyone to BUY BUY BUY at that moment Cheesy

edit: I miss the feeling of the start of a rally Undecided

The start of a rally is more fun than the rally itself, in my opinion...

Those theys were so exciting Grin

I think even more exciting days are to come, Dnaleor. As bitcoin gets more and more mainstream, things will happen that many did not anticipate, wonderful new applications and uses of bitcoin that we now still cannot imagine. I'm really looking forward to the future!

dnaleor

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1000

Want privacy? Use Monero!

Quote from: molecular on June 12, 2014, 04:00:49 AM

Quote from: Todorius on June 11, 2014, 07:23:10 AM

Quote from: holomen on June 11, 2014, 05:04:02 AM

I could call Last 6 days a flat water.

Average Trade volume within that period seems to be similar to May1-May19.

I have a feeling we should be making leg up to 800 soon.

But who could tell when the storm begins?

Yes. And I can't emphasize enough how much that feels like September 2013, when we had to endure weeks and weeks of low price action and volume seemed to fade off into the depths of nothingness.
Yet, out of nowhere, a sudden burst of green showed up in mid October, the volume ever increasing. When this will happen is hard to know. We could go sideways for another month in the worst case, or a few more days in the best. Yet the leg to 800 will surely come at some point.

Out of nowhere? I attribute the October '13 runup to increased confidence after the SR bust.

Maybe we should bust SR2?

Indeed. When I saw the recovery, I became very bullish. In those days, bitcoin was not really mainstream yet. Anything could happen. People thought that SR was needed to create a large demand for BTC. In 24-48 hours BTC was back to the previous level!
I immedialty told everyone to BUY BUY BUY at that moment Cheesy

edit: I miss the feeling of the start of a rally Undecided

The start of a rally is more fun than the rally itself, in my opinion...

Those days were so exciting Grin

Todorius

full member

Activity: 196

Merit: 100

My thoughts on what will happen during the coming weeks:

Notice the similarities to the 2013 recovery - absolutely mindboggling!

We might retest the first Fibo Level at slightly over 600, then a few weeks of boredom, and then lift-off in early July.
It might play out another way, but history tends to repeat itself, so I'd put the chances of that happening, slightly above other scenarios.

molecular

donator

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1019

Quote from: eat_more_fruit on June 11, 2014, 11:44:17 AM

So, on the assumption there is a spectacular breakout in 2014 and >1 yr. hodlers on the SSS plan get to divest a small percentage, which assets would people here recommend to park the fiat in?

good land and real estate maybe?

molecular

donator

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1019

Quote from: Todorius on June 11, 2014, 07:23:10 AM

Quote from: holomen on June 11, 2014, 05:04:02 AM

I could call Last 6 days a flat water.

Average Trade volume within that period seems to be similar to May1-May19.

I have a feeling we should be making leg up to 800 soon.

But who could tell when the storm begins?

Yes. And I can't emphasize enough how much that feels like September 2013, when we had to endure weeks and weeks of low price action and volume seemed to fade off into the depths of nothingness.
Yet, out of nowhere, a sudden burst of green showed up in mid October, the volume ever increasing. When this will happen is hard to know. We could go sideways for another month in the worst case, or a few more days in the best. Yet the leg to 800 will surely come at some point.

Out of nowhere? I attribute the October '13 runup to increased confidence after the SR bust.

Maybe we should bust SR2?

Todorius

full member

Activity: 196

Merit: 100

Quote from: av123 on June 11, 2014, 07:16:39 PM

Quote from: rpietila on June 11, 2014, 05:40:27 PM

Quote from: rpietila on May 14, 2014, 02:27:05 PM

This chart shows that the double bottom turns to an uptrend that will take us to the price level prevalent before the first flashcrash (in 2014's case 650, prior to dipping to 400 in 2014-2-25). This will happen slowly but steadily during 7 weeks.

TL; DR: We are at 650 in the beginning of July, 2014.

Looks like we are right on target for that.

I think we'll stay flat at this level and then in the beginning of July, things will start to heat up suddenly.
Beginning of July we very well might still be in this price range, end of July: higher than the old ATH. Yes, you heard me right Wink

av123

member

Activity: 98

Merit: 10

Quote from: rpietila on June 11, 2014, 05:40:27 PM

Quote from: rpietila on May 14, 2014, 02:27:05 PM

This chart shows that the double bottom turns to an uptrend that will take us to the price level prevalent before the first flashcrash (in 2014's case 650, prior to dipping to 400 in 2014-2-25). This will happen slowly but steadily during 7 weeks.

TL; DR: We are at 650 in the beginning of July, 2014.

Looks like we are right on target for that.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: rpietila on May 14, 2014, 02:27:05 PM

This chart shows that the double bottom turns to an uptrend that will take us to the price level prevalent before the first flashcrash (in 2014's case 650, prior to dipping to 400 in 2014-2-25). This will happen slowly but steadily during 7 weeks.

TL; DR: We are at 650 in the beginning of July, 2014.

Wary

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

Who's there?

Quote from: MahaRamana on June 11, 2014, 12:48:49 PM

Quote from: eat_more_fruit on June 11, 2014, 11:44:17 AM

So, on the assumption there is a spectacular breakout in 2014 and >1 yr. hodlers on the SSS plan get to divest a small percentage, which assets would people here recommend to park the fiat in?

The best you can invest in is your own business that creates value for others, that you are passionate about and that is profitable. I have found this to be the best asset.
Precious metals are good to have in small amount as an insurance if things go bad - they could be valuable in some scenarios.
Real estate depending on your personal situation/location. Productive land.

I don't like publicly traded companies and debt (treasuries).

But don't forget that most of new businesses fail.

MahaRamana

sr. member

Activity: 338

Merit: 250

Quote from: eat_more_fruit on June 11, 2014, 11:44:17 AM

So, on the assumption there is a spectacular breakout in 2014 and >1 yr. hodlers on the SSS plan get to divest a small percentage, which assets would people here recommend to park the fiat in?

The best you can invest in is your own business that creates value for others, that you are passionate about and that is profitable. I have found this to be the best asset.
Precious metals are good to have in small amount as an insurance if things go bad - they could be valuable in some scenarios.
Real estate depending on your personal situation/location. Productive land.

I don't like publicly traded companies and debt (treasuries).

eat_more_fruit

newbie

Activity: 25

Merit: 0

So, on the assumption there is a spectacular breakout in 2014 and >1 yr. hodlers on the SSS plan get to divest a small percentage, which assets would people here recommend to park the fiat in?

Todorius

full member

Activity: 196

Merit: 100

Quote from: bananaControl on June 11, 2014, 10:52:13 AM

Quote from: wiltontilt on June 11, 2014, 10:46:05 AM

Quote from: Todorius on June 11, 2014, 07:23:10 AM

Quote from: holomen on June 11, 2014, 05:04:02 AM

I could call Last 6 days a flat water.

Average Trade volume within that period seems to be similar to May1-May19.

I have a feeling we should be making leg up to 800 soon.

But who could tell when the storm begins?

Yes. And I can't emphasize enough how much that feels like September 2013, when we had to endure weeks and weeks of low price action and volume seemed to fade off into the depths of nothingness.
Yet, out of nowhere, a sudden burst of green showed up in mid October, the volume ever increasing. When this will happen is hard to know. We could go sideways for another month in the worst case, or a few more days in the best. Yet the leg to 800 will surely come at some point.

Isn't this primarily the work of the willy bot? Is there any indication that this will happen naturally in the near future?

You almost make it sound like you think that other markets are not manipulated - like there actually is such a thing as a natural and pure market somewhere.

Yes. And don't forget two things:
1. The willy bot might have very well been a bot for large players, to aquire large masses of BTC, having some special 0% fee agreement with Mt Gox.
2. Or other willy-type bots might very well be active right now, or start aquiring large masses of BTC in the near future.

bananaControl

sr. member

Activity: 322

Merit: 250

Decentralize All The Things!

Quote from: wiltontilt on June 11, 2014, 10:46:05 AM

Quote from: Todorius on June 11, 2014, 07:23:10 AM

Quote from: holomen on June 11, 2014, 05:04:02 AM

I could call Last 6 days a flat water.

Average Trade volume within that period seems to be similar to May1-May19.

I have a feeling we should be making leg up to 800 soon.

But who could tell when the storm begins?

Yes. And I can't emphasize enough how much that feels like September 2013, when we had to endure weeks and weeks of low price action and volume seemed to fade off into the depths of nothingness.
Yet, out of nowhere, a sudden burst of green showed up in mid October, the volume ever increasing. When this will happen is hard to know. We could go sideways for another month in the worst case, or a few more days in the best. Yet the leg to 800 will surely come at some point.

Isn't this primarily the work of the willy bot? Is there any indication that this will happen naturally in the near future?

You almost make it sound like you think that other markets are not manipulated - like there actually is such a thing as a natural and pure market somewhere.

Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 167. (Read 907212 times)