Downtrend or not, how low do oyu seriously think it will go?
I think $550 is as low as it gets. And even that was much lower than i ever expected it to be.
Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 164. (Read 907212 times)
Selling in the middle of an uptrend is not smart.
We are in a downtrend since around 666, and a downtrend since 1163.
It is true that we are in an uptrend since around 350 (and since 0) but it all depends on the perspective you take and the faith you have.
Now seems to be a poor moment to sell because the market clearly overreacted to the auction announcement. But when we were stuck at 640 it felt like the market was waiting for a reason to go lower. I think it would have corrected even without the news so the news only exaggerated the correction.
However, until we are at a new ATH, it can be argued that we are still in a downtrend since the previous one.
I was also thinking of shorting a %'age - but then decided no.
Small gains compared to just waiting. Patience is the rarest gift. I need more of it.
Small gains compared to just waiting. Patience is the rarest gift. I need more of it.
What do you risto think about the GHash.IO shit?
IMO it is a pretty considerable risk towards bitcoin, and could make some people hedge some of their btc stash and I'm thinking the same. But TBH even if this would result in panic selling, I really don't think we would even hit 400$ because GHash shit can be dealt with and there are currently loads of people and especially smart people interested in buying btc soon.
Should I sell 20-50% of my not so large stash (20-30) in order to buy some back in case the price goes ~400$?
IMO it is a pretty considerable risk towards bitcoin, and could make some people hedge some of their btc stash and I'm thinking the same. But TBH even if this would result in panic selling, I really don't think we would even hit 400$ because GHash shit can be dealt with and there are currently loads of people and especially smart people interested in buying btc soon.
Should I sell 20-50% of my not so large stash (20-30) in order to buy some back in case the price goes ~400$?
That's a nonissue.
I don't mean that there wasn't work to be done on that field, but I mean the things have been discussed for 3 years already so there is no reason to do anything now unless you are a miner yourself.
Selling in the middle of an uptrend is not smart.
What do you risto think about the GHash.IO shit?
IMO it is a pretty considerable risk towards bitcoin, and could make some people hedge some of their btc stash and I'm thinking the same. But TBH even if this would result in panic selling, I really don't think we would even hit 400$ because GHash shit can be dealt with and there are currently loads of people and especially smart people interested in buying btc soon.
Should I sell 20-50% of my not so large stash (20-30) in order to buy some back in case the price goes ~400$?
IMO it is a pretty considerable risk towards bitcoin, and could make some people hedge some of their btc stash and I'm thinking the same. But TBH even if this would result in panic selling, I really don't think we would even hit 400$ because GHash shit can be dealt with and there are currently loads of people and especially smart people interested in buying btc soon.
Should I sell 20-50% of my not so large stash (20-30) in order to buy some back in case the price goes ~400$?
I changed my mind concerning the "unfairness" of treatment between U.S. and foreign bidders. It seems that it is rather uncommon to give any opportunity for the foreign bidders. I also don't accept U.S. customers so it's pot blaming the kettle here... 
Experienced trader here: Buy with risk $400.
Closer to risk better reward.
Closer to risk better reward.
If the terms were not an issue (ie. I had full trust on the seller that coins go to the highest bidder, and only $200k deposit per lot was needed) I might bid for two lots at $500 and $4xx for a short-medium term arbitrage play. Lower than that is probably dreaming - and if it should happen, they get sold in the exchanges anyway where it's possible to pick them up.
Experienced trader here: Buy with risk $400.
Closer to risk better reward.
Closer to risk better reward.
i think it depends on the method of how the sr coins get sold.
Explained here:
http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/bitcoins/
Crony auction at its best. Too short notice for anyone with BTC to attend. Until next monday I am supposed to have created a bank account in the U.S., and have transferred 100% of my anticipated total bid amount into it in USD, the proceed of the bitcoin sales that I have made in the space of this few hours/days?
Sorry. This is going to achieve exactly what was intended. Almost no bids, and the ones rock-bottom. Bad publicity, resulting panic selling. Bitcoins of the people going to the hands of banksters cheaply. But really - what else did you expect?
It is actually a over a week to set up the US bank account and initiate the wire transfer for the 200,000 USD deposit. The deadline for registration is noon June 23rd 2014. For the balance of the funds on a winning bid it is July 01, 2014.
Edit: Why would anyone with BTC sell BTC to raise USD in order to participate in this auction? Hoping to get back in at a lower price? This could very easily backfire.
It said that the bolded part is also true.
I anticipate it will go at a discount. Also I want to keep the others honest by not giving too much discount. Btw. "discount" is calculated from the base price of $650, which was prevailing before the news.
Great thread mr rpietila. Thank you.
I set up a few automated charts here for anyone interested:
http://ripple.tech-trader.net/?pair=BTC-USD
Main value of the algos there are the trendlines and support/resistance drawing, which are strength-weighted based on how well the levels are tested. I'm also working on a few automated strategies for the trading itself if anyone's interested in collaborating.
I'm mainly watching to see if the support at $550 holds. If not, I'd expect a test of the next closest trendline below that.
http://ripple.tech-trader.net/?pair=BTC-USD
Main value of the algos there are the trendlines and support/resistance drawing, which are strength-weighted based on how well the levels are tested. I'm also working on a few automated strategies for the trading itself if anyone's interested in collaborating.
I'm mainly watching to see if the support at $550 holds. If not, I'd expect a test of the next closest trendline below that.
good looking charts!
I set up a few automated charts here for anyone interested:
http://ripple.tech-trader.net/?pair=BTC-USD
Main value of the algos there are the trendlines and support/resistance drawing, which are strength-weighted based on how well the levels are tested. I'm also working on a few automated strategies for the trading itself if anyone's interested in collaborating.
I'm mainly watching to see if the support at $550 holds. If not, I'd expect a test of the next closest trendline below that.
http://ripple.tech-trader.net/2014-06-13_19-43,_60_Minute_BTC-USD_Chart.jpg
http://ripple.tech-trader.net/?pair=BTC-USD
Main value of the algos there are the trendlines and support/resistance drawing, which are strength-weighted based on how well the levels are tested. I'm also working on a few automated strategies for the trading itself if anyone's interested in collaborating.
I'm mainly watching to see if the support at $550 holds. If not, I'd expect a test of the next closest trendline below that.
http://ripple.tech-trader.net/2014-06-13_19-43,_60_Minute_BTC-USD_Chart.jpg
i think it depends on the method of how the sr coins get sold.
Explained here:
http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/bitcoins/
Crony auction at its best. Too short notice for anyone with BTC to attend. Until next monday I am supposed to have created a bank account in the U.S., and have transferred 100% of my anticipated total bid amount into it in USD, the proceed of the bitcoin sales that I have made in the space of this few hours/days?
Sorry. This is going to achieve exactly what was intended. Almost no bids, and the ones rock-bottom. Bad publicity, resulting panic selling. Bitcoins of the people going to the hands of banksters cheaply. But really - what else did you expect?
It is actually a over a week to set up the US bank account and initiate the wire transfer for the 200,000 USD deposit. The deadline for registration is noon June 23rd 2014. For the balance of the funds on a winning bid it is July 01, 2014.
Edit: Why would anyone with BTC sell BTC to raise USD in order to participate in this auction? Hoping to get back in at a lower price? This could very easily backfire.
Well only positive out of all the news in the last 24h is at least now the US could never illegalize bitcoins after selling some. How could they? Even many years in the future it would be very difficult to illegalize something the government sold on the open market.
Hemp as an example comes to mind...
If they feel the need to criminalize bitcoin they will not hesitate.
Yes probably true but still somewhat of a move in the direction of bringing bitcoin into an acceptance
Double standard. One for you, one for the government types. Prescription medicine, atomic bombs, lying in the house of representatives, insider trading, lying in investigations, fill inn 100 more...
Well only positive out of all the news in the last 24h is at least now the US could never illegalize bitcoins after selling some. How could they? Even many years in the future it would be very difficult to illegalize something the government sold on the open market.
Hemp as an example comes to mind...
If they feel the need to criminalize bitcoin they will not hesitate.
Yes probably true but still somewhat of a move in the direction of bringing bitcoin into an acceptance
Well only positive out of all the news in the last 24h is at least now the US could never illegalize bitcoins after selling some. How could they? Even many years in the future it would be very difficult to illegalize something the government sold on the open market.
Hemp as an example comes to mind...
If they feel the need to criminalize bitcoin they will not hesitate.
Damn finex.. always trying to stop it going down... I better bail out of here soon 
China wants to go down 
Well only positive out of all the news in the last 24h is at least now the US could never illegalize bitcoins after selling some. How could they? Even many years in the future it would be very difficult to illegalize something the government sold on the open market.
Ghash.io 51% mining control could only be useful for double spending. That's all.
So don't sell your BTCs because of this FUD.
So don't sell your BTCs because of this FUD.
No, that's not all. They could take 100% of the mining rewards by only building on their own blocks, knocking everyone else out of the mining business so that they then control 100% of the mining. They could also halt the network and destroy it completely.
And you're going to say "but they can't steal coins". So what? They can make everyone's coins value drop to zero, which is about the same as stealing them from any coin holder's standpoint.
So then you might say "but why would they destroy the network? They'll lose money too." We don't even know who "they" are. Maybe that was their intent all along, or maybe a government agency is going to compensate them. Given what's at stake you can't just ignore this risk.
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