Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 171. (Read 907212 times)

SlipperySlope - Very interesting numbers you got, as well as the current resistant point. I'm very similar to you via my Gann chart.

Notice current resistance (double red ring we have been bouncing off) and if your follow my chart out and up, you get 800 by mid June (Max) and the topside looks around 900 in late July.
Very rough numbers, not as much about price projection as it is about resistance/support points. Current support would be the red and black line below us.

So be it.

Why an ounce? Both ounce and bitcoin are arbitrary: gold can be measured in carats or grams, and bitcoins can be millibitcoins or decibitcoins or whatever. Isn't it better to compare market caps of gold and bitcoin?

Here is the three-day resolution chart on Bitstamp showing the pause around $650 that some observers expected. When the rally penetrates this resistance, the next pause could be near $800. If it takes the rest of this month to do that, then I expect the bubble to get going in July and rapidly ascend beyond the all-time-high of $1163.

...and others just melt them anyway, because they know the law can't be enforced, especially in small operations involving a few people.

Refining to purity is what requires a larger operation. If you just melt the coins into bars or cubes, it's not 99.9% copper, so you have to ship the bars to the refinery to make them 99.9... if you do that, then you are using two heat cycles one for initial melt and one for refining (=more energy expended) so in that regard there is a loss. But it's still cheaper than moving them to Canada for melting (as they used to).

A few years ago a law was passed in the US making it illegal to melt down pennies and nickles.  There is also a law against taking more than $5 worth of pennies out of the US.  People still hoard copper pennies on the hope that the US will do away with pennies and they will be able to melt them.

CHOO CHOOOOOOOOOOOO   

A success in Bitcoin will take away part of the market of gold for sure.

No they don't. Yet.

But it really show the worthlessness of FIAT IMHO.

For a hobby I do searching with a metal detector.
It is really funny to dig up perfectly year 1766 coins and see the degradation in time.
1800+ coins are already mixed with iron because they rust a bit.
1900+ are worse and you are very lucky to find an intact euro "copper" coin because 2006 "copper" coins are already looking like cauliflower.
In 20 years time you won't find a euro "copper" coin but you'll still find intact year 1700 coins.

It really made me think about our current monetary system while walking on the beach etc.

Official inflation numbers are problematic because the indexes are constantly re-adjusted. If you use the official indexes of 1980 or 1990, you see inflation is much larger (applying these indexes in 2014). If you want to lower inflation these days, all you have to do is increase the percentage of technological products and services in the index and say "see? the prices are going down because you can get a mobile phone for less, a better laptop for less, a telecommunications contract for less etc etc".

Growth = increase in GDP minus inflation. So it "pays" when you under-report and hide* your inflation, as you can show a larger "real" increase in GDP. Additionally no-one complains because if you give people 3% interest and they have 5% low inflation, they'll rise up and go to PMs.

So instead of trying to convince people that they are "gaining" money by leaving their money at the bank, they undereport the inflation to make it "obvious" that people will "gain". Inflation 2% (instead of 5% actual), interest 3%, so 1% "profit" instead of 2% loss. Much easier to sell it in this way.

The larger the inflation, the more visible this under-reporting is. In some countries inflation is running at 20-25% and the government is reporting like half of it. That's visible and people complain because they can see that their money are running out FAST. 3-5-7% isn't so much and people at this level are under the influence of the Al Gore frog analogy... the frog is boiling at a rate too slow to notice. By the time the frog "gets it" (after a decade of depreciated bank deposits) it'll be too late because the interest doesn't cover the losses. So it has to be some other asset that protects people from inflation. Whether gold, silver, BTC etc etc - things that either inflate to a lower degree than fiat, or that have an increase in demand which is larger than their inflation.

* There are things you can hide, and things you can't... In US coinage, right now, pre1982 copper pennies cost more than 2cents in copper value compared to the 1cent face value.

Nickels (5c coins) are also very marginal as the metal costs 99% of the coin's face value. As it crosses over 100-110-120%, hoarding of nickels for melting, or as a way to counter inflation, will start to occur.

In Europe it's extremely "fascinating" that our 1c, 2c and 5c coins have a copper look, but in fact are made of dirt-cheap iron with a copper plating. You can't make this stuff up... copper is used for plating! They want to give people the impression of "value" and that nothing changed relative to the past (abundance of copper coins for small denominations in most european countries) because if people saw the iron they would immediately understand these are "cheap" coins... But they can't afford to go copper. The money's face value cannot afford to buy the metal it's minted on.

Dude, how can silver be 5 times cheaper than it is now? It's already unprofitable to mine silver, and silver is used in industries a lot. The demand for silver can not even go 5 times lower. Even if the demand for silver (as investment) would drop to 0, silver would still be in high demand for industrial purposes. Silver prices could even rise without anyone having to invest in silver, just because the industrial demand is so high and will only increase as production of electronics increases.

Also the gold to silver ratio is incredibly low. So silver will more likely gain on gold.

Bitcoin will still outperform both gold and silver. But gold and silver will still gain value relative to fiat. I think a 10-20 time increase for gold and a 50-100 time increase for silver is realistically possible.

This is my strategy. Once the market value of a bitcoin equals the market value of an ounce of gold, a yet to be determined amount of my bitcoins will be sold/exchanged for gold. A small percentage mind you, as I'm a believer in the long-term progressive success of bitcoin. If something catastrophic happens (fatal flaw discovered in the protocol, whatever...), I will go down with the ship, bag in hand.

I believe you are correct.

The Zeitgeist would like to have a debt-free pure fiat currency. I think it is slightly better than the current system (due to moral grounds - I believe the govt is more entitled to the seigniorage that the banking cartel) but still many better systems exist.

Bitcoin is unique in that in the course of its existence, $600M is burned in mining, which has at each time been the full payment for the new coins at market value (the "value added" or "profit" to the miners in general has been very low), yet the coins are now worth $8000M, so we have been able to monetize the network value up to $7400M while ensuring that nobody gets a free ride. In more than 90% of the altcoins, this is not the case.

Yes!  executive order 11110, resulting in over 4 billion worth of $1 denominated silver certificates.  I heard of that with great interest also.  Regarding the Chinese Yuan article, I misread the headline: actually their currency only devalued in the last 7 days, but is up slightly over the longer term against the dollar.

I have the memory that ruble and yuan would not be issued through debt issuance but as "pure paper" like Finnish Markka used to be some decades ago.

JFK got killed after proposing that the U.S. moved to debt-free U.S. Notes and scrapped FED-currency.

why do you see ruble or yuan a possible exception; being different from any other fiat currency?  They are all devaluating in sync with eachother across the world:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-25/welcome-currency-wars-china-yuan-devalues-most-20-years
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304856504579338583232958714 (Ruble drops to 5 year low)

I don't believe at all that bitcoin's rise means gold's demise. When bitcoin rises and holders diversify, a disproportionate amount is going to physical gold. I think this offsets the (also large) percentage of gold hoarders dishoarding gold to buy BTC.

Fiat is the thing I don't see anyone is interested in this scenario. It is also an instrument of slavery, because for every dollar you own, someone else is in debt the equal amount. It is shameful to have balances in most national fiats for this reason (ruble, yuan perhaps exception).

yes, hedge your bitcoin with gold or visa verca

    Nothing to apologize for.  I was being a little facetious, but it is a valid point that the likelihood of this shit is stronger than merely non-zero.  How do you hedge that, besides planning to be somewhere else?   Bitcoin is likely good for that, but gold may be required to grease the wheels on the journey.  Always have some gold 
 
Which is more likely :  Western Governments adopting bitcoin, or terrorizing their subjects to the point of violent revolt?  I'm pretty sure I know which path they are progressing thus far.  That doesn't make bitcoin any less valuable, but it might raise the perceived value of PMs.

Wake me when BTC get over $700.

Out.