rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 178.

wachtwoord

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Quote from: Ultros on May 30, 2014, 09:19:17 AM

Quote from: TERA on May 30, 2014, 09:18:11 AM

I believe it is ridiculous to think that in 3 years bitcoin will be
-As big in market cap as the U.S. dollar.
-Fully intergrated with all merchants and all consumers
-Full integrated into wall street
-The currency of choice in the mainstream with all consumers clearly choosing bitcoin over fiat
-All employees salaries are paid in btc, all bills are paid in btc, you pay your rent and taxes in btc, etc.

This is the type of thing that the $1,000,000 mark would imply, and I think it would take a lot longer than 3 years. I think it would take it 10 years at least.

That would mean that the 'trendline' needs some serious adjustment - perhaps it is a different shape altogether than a simple exponential increase.

And people call you a bear. Grin

last time I did he explained to me he wasn't Wink

ErisDiscordia

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Imposition of ORder = Escalation of Chaos

Quote from: pinksheep on May 30, 2014, 09:02:40 AM

So you think we could see $30,000 to $100,000 over the next couple of years?

The way I see it this is an inevitable conclusion if we assume any sort of meaningful success for Bitcoin. Where success is defined as replacing significant parts of current markets (payments, remittance, gold, fiat currency) and/or creating new ones (microtransactions, gambling, crowdfunding, smart contracts, Huh

). The capitalization of the Bitcoin ecosystem and thus inevitably the price of one Bitcoin will have to be in that sort of ballpark in order for the occurrence of such scenarios to be possible.

The question of whether we reach such prices then becomes a question if Bitcoin can achieve these things and that of course is impossible to foretell - but everyone can do their own research and form their own opinion about that and act accordingly.

Ultros

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Quote from: TERA on May 30, 2014, 09:18:11 AM

I believe it is ridiculous to think that in 3 years bitcoin will be
-As big in market cap as the U.S. dollar.
-Fully intergrated with all merchants and all consumers
-Full integrated into wall street
-The currency of choice in the mainstream with all consumers clearly choosing bitcoin over fiat
-All employees salaries are paid in btc, all bills are paid in btc, you pay your rent and taxes in btc, etc.

This is the type of thing that the $1,000,000 mark would imply, and I think it would take a lot longer than 3 years. I think it would take it 10 years at least.

That would mean that the 'trendline' needs some serious adjustment - perhaps it is a different shape altogether than a simple exponential increase.

And people call you a bear. Grin

TERA

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I believe it is ridiculous to think that in 3 years bitcoin will be
-As big in market cap as the U.S. dollar.
-Fully intergrated with all merchants and all consumers
-Full integrated into wall street
-The currency of choice in the mainstream with all consumers clearly choosing bitcoin over fiat
-All employees salaries are paid in btc, all bills are paid in btc, you pay your rent and taxes in btc, etc.

This is the type of thing that the $1,000,000 mark would imply, and I think it would take a lot longer than 3 years. I think it would take it 10 years at least.

That would mean that the 'trendline' needs some serious adjustment - perhaps it is a different shape altogether than a simple exponential increase.

wachtwoord

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Quote from: BitchicksHusband on May 30, 2014, 08:58:17 AM

Quote from: TERA on May 30, 2014, 08:50:31 AM

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on May 30, 2014, 08:44:35 AM

Quote from: TERA on May 30, 2014, 08:06:44 AM

It is a bad thing if people use the emotion of short term action to adjust their long term projections. The theory behind all of these long term projections are that they are calculated in such a way that they occur regardless of the current short term action.

Isn't that a good thing for you as a day trader, though? If people wouldn't react emotionally while participating in markets, you probably wouldn't have made as much money as you did.

"Don't tap the glass" say the poker players. You will scare away the fish

My posting is only directed at the participants of this thread who have been posting models of 'the trendline' going to $1,000,000 such as rpetelia. It is not about the market as a whole.

Slippery's adoption curve seems a little high to me. I see us starting to level off in the mid-5 to low-6 digits ($30,000-$100,000), and this is still after several more bubbles over the next couple years.

Could we get to $1 million per coin? Yeah, but I think that will take 25-50 years.

But the end point of this curve doesn't really matter. $30k or $300M gives the same curve on the spot we are right now. It doesn't go faster than exponentially!

pinksheep

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So you think we could see $30,000 to $100,000 over the next couple of years?

BitchicksHusband

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Quote from: TERA on May 30, 2014, 08:50:31 AM

Quote from: ErisDiscordia on May 30, 2014, 08:44:35 AM

Quote from: TERA on May 30, 2014, 08:06:44 AM

It is a bad thing if people use the emotion of short term action to adjust their long term projections. The theory behind all of these long term projections are that they are calculated in such a way that they occur regardless of the current short term action.

Isn't that a good thing for you as a day trader, though? If people wouldn't react emotionally while participating in markets, you probably wouldn't have made as much money as you did.

"Don't tap the glass" say the poker players. You will scare away the fish

My posting is only directed at the participants of this thread who have been posting models of 'the trendline' going to $1,000,000 such as rpetelia. It is not about the market as a whole.

Slippery's adoption curve seems a little high to me. I see us starting to level off in the mid-5 to low-6 digits ($30,000-$100,000), and this is still after several more bubbles over the next couple years.

Could we get to $1 million per coin? Yeah, but I think that will take 25-50 years.

TERA

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Quote from: ErisDiscordia on May 30, 2014, 08:44:35 AM

Quote from: TERA on May 30, 2014, 08:06:44 AM

It is a bad thing if people use the emotion of short term action to adjust their long term projections. The theory behind all of these long term projections are that they are calculated in such a way that they occur regardless of the current short term action.

Isn't that a good thing for you as a day trader, though? If people wouldn't react emotionally while participating in markets, you probably wouldn't have made as much money as you did.

"Don't tap the glass" say the poker players. You will scare away the fish

My posting is only directed at the participants of this thread who have been posting models of 'the trendline' going to $1,000,000 such as rpetelia. It is not about the market as a whole.

ErisDiscordia

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Imposition of ORder = Escalation of Chaos

Quote from: TERA on May 30, 2014, 08:06:44 AM

It is a bad thing if people use the emotion of short term action to adjust their long term projections. The theory behind all of these long term projections are that they are calculated in such a way that they occur regardless of the current short term action.

Isn't that a good thing for you as a day trader, though? If people wouldn't react emotionally while participating in markets, you probably wouldn't have made as much money as you did.

"Don't tap the glass" say the poker players. You will scare away the fish

inca

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Quote from: TERA on May 30, 2014, 08:06:44 AM

Quote from: zimmah on May 30, 2014, 08:03:09 AM

Quote from: TERA on May 30, 2014, 07:34:08 AM

I bet in everyone's mind in this thread, this glorious 35% rally is some type evidence that all the $1,000,000+ projections are coming to fruition, whereas there might have been some doubt about them earlier. Pretty soon there will be new charts pinpointing exactly when $1,000,000 will be reached, which will be even earlier than previously projected, possibly with even higher targets afterwards, and it's all because of this rally.

you're making it seem like it's a bad thing.

It is a bad thing if people use the emotion of short term action to adjust their long term projections. The theory behind all of these long term projections are that they are calculated in such a way that they occur regardless of the current short term action.

How does one project the future without including the immediate past as reference?

People being ebullient after price rises following a bear market is entirely normal. Just as sorrow levels were high as the price kept falling endlessly.

The reason people project seemingly massive bitcoin gains is that they are possible if adoption waves continue. Sure they will likely not happen this year or anytime soon, but they could.

zimmah

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it may be a good thing though because if enough people believe in it it will happen regardless.

TERA

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Quote from: zimmah on May 30, 2014, 08:03:09 AM

Quote from: TERA on May 30, 2014, 07:34:08 AM

I bet in everyone's mind in this thread, this glorious 35% rally is some type evidence that all the $1,000,000+ projections are coming to fruition, whereas there might have been some doubt about them earlier. Pretty soon there will be new charts pinpointing exactly when $1,000,000 will be reached, which will be even earlier than previously projected, possibly with even higher targets afterwards, and it's all because of this rally.

you're making it seem like it's a bad thing.

It is a bad thing if people use the emotion of short term action to adjust their long term projections. The theory behind all of these long term projections are that they are calculated in such a way that they occur regardless of the current short term action.

zimmah

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Activity: 1106

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Quote from: TERA on May 30, 2014, 07:34:08 AM

I bet in everyone's mind in this thread, this glorious 35% rally is some type evidence that all the $1,000,000+ projections are coming to fruition, whereas there might have been some doubt about them earlier. Pretty soon there will be new charts pinpointing exactly when $1,000,000 will be reached, which will be even earlier than previously projected, possibly with even higher targets afterwards, and it's all because of this rally.

you're making it seem like it's a bad thing.

pinksheep

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Never mind $1,000,000, I'd be quite happy with $50,000

Hopefully by the end of 2015

kehtolo

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Quote from: TERA on May 30, 2014, 07:34:08 AM

I bet in everyone's mind in this thread, this glorious 35% rally is some type evidence that all the $1,000,000+ projections are coming to fruition, whereas there might have been some doubt about them earlier. Pretty soon there will be new charts pinpointing exactly when $1,000,000 will be reached, which will be even earlier than previously projected, possibly with even higher targets afterwards, and it's all because of this rally.

it looks likely for next week $1M!!!

Grin

TERA

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I bet in everyone's mind in this thread, this glorious 35% rally is some type evidence that all the $1,000,000+ projections are coming to fruition, whereas there might have been some doubt about them earlier. Pretty soon there will be new charts pinpointing exactly when $1,000,000 will be reached, which will be even earlier than previously projected, possibly with even higher targets afterwards, and it's all because of this rally.

SlipperySlope

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Stephen Reed

We are now two weeks after the breakout of the resistance trendline from the November 2013 peak. It appears the next resistance could be at $650 where prices stalled for a while on the way down. This is the 3-day resolution chart from Bitstamp.

pinksheep

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Quote from: Alonzo Ewing on May 30, 2014, 01:12:05 AM

Quote from: bitcoinsrus on May 29, 2014, 10:03:54 AM

As much as that sounds awesome, that means that the market cap (assuming most of the 21 million coins are in circulation by then) would be 21,000,000,000,000 (or 21 trillion).

I forgot where I heard about if BTC reaches 300k, that would be around gold standard.
To me, it seems mind boggling and might (or might not) go around those areas.

[edit]: If bitcoin becomes international payment (around the world). Seems more possible (then if it just stays mainly in one area (like China or US or something)

Payments is small time. If you add up the market caps of VISA, MasterCard, Western Union, and Paypal, you get on the order of a couple hundred billion.

The money is in the wealth assets. Gold itself is $6 trillion. And gold is a very very small part of people's wealth. Add up real estate, stocks, and bonds, and you'll see some monster numbers.

Heck, just add up the nations of the worlds' reserve assets. I can readily see Bitcoin becoming THE reserve currency of the world. Now that would be a big number.

This is why I don't worry about merchant adoption: its use as a speculative store of value is the primary driver of the price, and it's much more important.

I agree with you about payment being small time, but I can't see BTC becoming the reserve currency for a VERY long time. What time frame do you have in mind for this to happen? Also I can't imagine governments letting it happen.

SnowMonkey_CG

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Was just surprised to see, stamp is normally close to finex... I just closed my long position on bitfinex at 603 hoping to reopen lower.

Ozziecoin

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Quote from: SnowMonkey_CG on May 30, 2014, 06:41:34 AM

Bitfinex seems to be pulling away from stamp... why?!

(I don't like seeing price action I don't recognise!)

Because they have a bot called Willy2.... Grin

Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 178. (Read 907229 times)