Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 177. (Read 907212 times)
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Currently, I suppose that the mining reward is mostly spent on new mining equipment and power. The equipment manufacturers may accept bitcoin payments. So a portion of the mining reward may stay in bitcoin and not be exchanged for fiat. In the summer of 2016 the block creation reward is scheduled to again halve to 12.6 bitcoins per mined block. My logistic model has a trend price of about $840,000 for July 1, 2017. So three years from now, 1800 daily block creation reward bitcoins would have a fiat value of $151 million. Even if converted entirely into fiat, I think that figure is achievable by worldwide investment.
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A price of above $840,000 by July 1 2017 is one of the most optimistic predictions I have seen. In percentage terms, how likely do you think it is that that will happen?
According to Peter_R's Metcalf Law model, the bitcoin price is proportional to the square of the number of transactions. An increase of 3.2x in bitcoin transaction quantity supports a 10x increase in bitcoin price. Currently, transaction volume is about 60,000 daily. To support prices 1000x greater than today we need transaction growth 31.6x greater. That works out to 1.9 million transactions per day. Is that doable in three years?
You mean like 22 transactions per second, or 13200 transactions per block, with about 6.6Mb each?Not possible by this metric alone, so maybe on-chain Bitcoin will not reach 1M USD in the next 3 years?
Also current price growth suggests a price of 3.67M USD in exactly 3 years, something has to change for this to be possible.
Even if scaling like that was accomplished "easily", what would have to change is the rate with which fiat is issued:
3.67mn USD per BTC x 3600 per day = 13.2bn USD per day to buy daily supply = 4.82 trillion USD per year to buy annual supply.
The monetary base of USD/EUR etc wouldn't be able to cope with that - even if conversion is taking place at just 25% of BTCs (>1trn USD per year required).
The Bitcoin wiki has an article on scaling here that addresses 2000 transactions per second. That is doable. And I have a project to re-engineer the Bitcoin network that makes it even more doable, should I succeed.
Currently, I suppose that the mining reward is mostly spent on new mining equipment and power. The equipment manufacturers may accept bitcoin payments. So a portion of the mining reward may stay in bitcoin and not be exchanged for fiat. In the summer of 2016 the block creation reward is scheduled to again halve to 12.6 bitcoins per mined block. My logistic model has a trend price of about $840,000 for July 1, 2017. So three years from now, 1800 daily block creation reward bitcoins would have a fiat value of $151 million. Even if converted entirely into fiat, I think that figure is achievable by worldwide investment.
One could make that happen much faster, without transactions, if instead of waiting on the wisdom charts all day, he drove BTC demand up drying liquidity... how? With the plan I proposed earlier about minting physical gold/platinum/silver coins with BTCs in them for collectors and precious metal "stackers". This could drive the entire annual supply of BTCs out of circulation, every year - thus making (practical) inflation go to zero or negative, as new bitcoins are "stacked" as rounds / collectibles. The number of 1 oz gold rounds that are sold every year are like millions. Same for silver rounds... only the US mint makes 50mn american silver eagles. What if stackers and collectors had the option to buy gold+silver+btc in them? It would be a triple-hedge-coin against fiat consisting of PM, collectible/rare (due to bitcoins rarity) and self-hedged between bitcoin and gold/silver/platinum.
Silver/Goldbugs generally dislike bitcoin but what they do really hate is FIAT - so in this they sometimes find Bitcoin to be an ally (and sometimes to be a government scam to divert from their favorite PMs). Some times they also understand numismatics and how mintage affects rarity and value and in this they can't really escape the proposition of gold bitcoins. People are currently paying premiums for ...Pandas (gold coins in china), why wouldn't they pay if there was a gold coin + 1 btc in it?
And here is the 6-hour resolution chart from Bitstamp, showing the 10 day rally reaching prices not seen since March . . .
According to Peter_R's Metcalf Law model, the bitcoin price is proportional to the square of the number of transactions. An increase of 3.2x in bitcoin transaction quantity supports a 10x increase in bitcoin price. Currently, transaction volume is about 60,000 daily. To support prices 1000x greater than today we need transaction growth 31.6x greater. That works out to 1.9 million transactions per day. Is that doable in three years?
You mean like 22 transactions per second, or 13200 transactions per block, with about 6.6Mb each?Not possible by this metric alone, so maybe on-chain Bitcoin will not reach 1M USD in the next 3 years?
Also current price growth suggests a price of 3.67M USD in exactly 3 years, something has to change for this to be possible.
Even if scaling like that was accomplished "easily", what would have to change is the rate with which fiat is issued:
3.67mn USD per BTC x 3600 per day = 13.2bn USD per day to buy daily supply = 4.82 trillion USD per year to buy annual supply.
The monetary base of USD/EUR etc wouldn't be able to cope with that - even if conversion is taking place at just 25% of BTCs (>1trn USD per year required).
The Bitcoin wiki has an article on scaling here that addresses 2000 transactions per second. That is doable. And I have a project to re-engineer the Bitcoin network that makes it even more doable, should I succeed.
Currently, I suppose that the mining reward is mostly spent on new mining equipment and power. The equipment manufacturers may accept bitcoin payments. So a portion of the mining reward may stay in bitcoin and not be exchanged for fiat. In the summer of 2016 the block creation reward is scheduled to again halve to 12.6 bitcoins per mined block. My logistic model has a trend price of about $840,000 for July 1, 2017. So three years from now, 1800 daily block creation reward bitcoins would have a fiat value of $151 million. Even if converted entirely into fiat, I think that figure is achievable by worldwide investment.
The monetary base of USD/EUR etc wouldn't be able to cope with that - even if conversion is taking place at just 25% of BTCs (>1trn USD per year required).
Until a few months ago, QE program in US alone was buying 1trn a year in treasuries and mortgages.
Funny you should mention that. I just printed an article on that to show my students, especially the bankers.
Any idea on the level now?
This should almost be criminal. All that money just sitting in banks or going to stock buy backs and such?
Nice place to start.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-06/500-billion-2013-corporate-buybacks-half-qe
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304020704579276633464650694
ps - Argentina has an exchange. This is the start of another wave imo...
The monetary base of USD/EUR etc wouldn't be able to cope with that - even if conversion is taking place at just 25% of BTCs (>1trn USD per year required).
Until a few months ago, QE program in US alone was buying 1trn a year in treasuries and mortgages.
Assuming bitcoin does take over a lot of traditional uses of money; People who think it will take 25-30 years for bitcoin to take hold are absolutely mental in my opinion.
Do you people not remember how quickly the the internet transformed purchasing and absolutely destroyed most brick and mortar outfits within 3-5 years?
How quickly did netflix put all video stores out of business? I fondly remember going to the video store to rent movies... it was only 2-3 years ago!
Now Look how far we have come in only 8 months... Last year we didn't even know if bitcoin was legal!, now the US is creating regulation and large companies seem to be embracing it. Dish Network and big gold retailers legitimizing bitcoin, Last year, the only way to get bitcoins was through mining or localbitcoins.... (or shady paypal / wire transfers out of the country) Now we can buy on coinbase / circle / etc... gyft came online. Someone can now easily live just on bitcoin alone. This is 8 months of incredible progress!
I'm not saying bitcoin necessarily WILL take over all our financial systems, but the internet payments sector / wealth accumulation / speculation vehicle portions of bitcoin if they DO happen will basically happen incredibly quickly... Despite being complex... bitcoin is actually much simpler to use and implement than current banking and payment structures. Once we reach a certain point with bitcoin.... mass adoption will be incredible and very quick, think smartphone adoption.... from 2007 with the first iphone / android phones to 2014 where everyone has a smartphone / iphone. Also cell phone adoption... When I entered high school in 1999, 1% of kids maybe had a cell phone if any.. by the time my little sister graduated in 2005, every kid had a cell phone. I think that will be the speed at which this thing happens. 7 year boom.
25-30 years might be the range for TOTAL adoption.... but 80-90% of bitcoins major growth periods for bitcoin and bitcoin type technologies will happen within a decade, not a quarter of a century.
I think you make good points, but maybe you are getting ahead of yourself wrt retailDo you people not remember how quickly the the internet transformed purchasing and absolutely destroyed most brick and mortar outfits within 3-5 years?
How quickly did netflix put all video stores out of business? I fondly remember going to the video store to rent movies... it was only 2-3 years ago!
Now Look how far we have come in only 8 months... Last year we didn't even know if bitcoin was legal!, now the US is creating regulation and large companies seem to be embracing it. Dish Network and big gold retailers legitimizing bitcoin, Last year, the only way to get bitcoins was through mining or localbitcoins.... (or shady paypal / wire transfers out of the country) Now we can buy on coinbase / circle / etc... gyft came online. Someone can now easily live just on bitcoin alone. This is 8 months of incredible progress!
I'm not saying bitcoin necessarily WILL take over all our financial systems, but the internet payments sector / wealth accumulation / speculation vehicle portions of bitcoin if they DO happen will basically happen incredibly quickly... Despite being complex... bitcoin is actually much simpler to use and implement than current banking and payment structures. Once we reach a certain point with bitcoin.... mass adoption will be incredible and very quick, think smartphone adoption.... from 2007 with the first iphone / android phones to 2014 where everyone has a smartphone / iphone. Also cell phone adoption... When I entered high school in 1999, 1% of kids maybe had a cell phone if any.. by the time my little sister graduated in 2005, every kid had a cell phone. I think that will be the speed at which this thing happens. 7 year boom.
25-30 years might be the range for TOTAL adoption.... but 80-90% of bitcoins major growth periods for bitcoin and bitcoin type technologies will happen within a decade, not a quarter of a century.
I can't argue with those statistics..... I think my bias is the fact that I mostly pay attention to electronics and computing product sales which are industries that were probably much more heavily affected by e-commerce than the overall economy was. (i.e. people still buy groceries in the grocery store, cars at the dealerships, food at a restaurant, but they no longer go to ultimate electronics, compusa, or the mom and pop computer store to buy their computer parts.)
According to Peter_R's Metcalf Law model, the bitcoin price is proportional to the square of the number of transactions. An increase of 3.2x in bitcoin transaction quantity supports a 10x increase in bitcoin price. Currently, transaction volume is about 60,000 daily. To support prices 1000x greater than today we need transaction growth 31.6x greater. That works out to 1.9 million transactions per day. Is that doable in three years?
You mean like 22 transactions per second, or 13200 transactions per block, with about 6.6Mb each?Not possible by this metric alone, so maybe on-chain Bitcoin will not reach 1M USD in the next 3 years?
Also current price growth suggests a price of 3.67M USD in exactly 3 years, something has to change for this to be possible.
Even if scaling like that was accomplished "easily", what would have to change is the rate with which fiat is issued:
3.67mn USD per BTC x 3600 per day = 13.2bn USD per day to buy daily supply = 4.82 trillion USD per year to buy annual supply.
The monetary base of USD/EUR etc wouldn't be able to cope with that - even if conversion is taking place at just 25% of BTCs (>1trn USD per year required).
I believe it is ridiculous to think that in 3 years bitcoin will be
-As big in market cap as the U.S. dollar.
-Fully intergrated with all merchants and all consumers
-Full integrated into wall street
-The currency of choice in the mainstream with all consumers clearly choosing bitcoin over fiat
-All employees salaries are paid in btc, all bills are paid in btc, you pay your rent and taxes in btc, etc.
This is the type of thing that the $1,000,000 mark would imply, and I think it would take a lot longer than 3 years. I think it would take it 10 years at least.
That would mean that the 'trendline' needs some serious adjustment - perhaps it is a different shape altogether than a simple exponential increase.
-As big in market cap as the U.S. dollar.
-Fully intergrated with all merchants and all consumers
-Full integrated into wall street
-The currency of choice in the mainstream with all consumers clearly choosing bitcoin over fiat
-All employees salaries are paid in btc, all bills are paid in btc, you pay your rent and taxes in btc, etc.
This is the type of thing that the $1,000,000 mark would imply, and I think it would take a lot longer than 3 years. I think it would take it 10 years at least.
That would mean that the 'trendline' needs some serious adjustment - perhaps it is a different shape altogether than a simple exponential increase.
It depends on what variables you are looking at.
For example, USD is an important variable.
If it breaks down quicker from here, we will just see a shift of wealth.
Those places to shift to are limited.
If you look at fewer variables in the price discovery formula, then a high
Price of bitcoin doesn't fit that kind of linear thinking.
Assuming bitcoin does take over a lot of traditional uses of money; People who think it will take 25-30 years for bitcoin to take hold are absolutely mental in my opinion.
Do you people not remember how quickly the the internet transformed purchasing and absolutely destroyed most brick and mortar outfits within 3-5 years?
How quickly did netflix put all video stores out of business? I fondly remember going to the video store to rent movies... it was only 2-3 years ago!
Now Look how far we have come in only 8 months... Last year we didn't even know if bitcoin was legal!, now the US is creating regulation and large companies seem to be embracing it. Dish Network and big gold retailers legitimizing bitcoin, Last year, the only way to get bitcoins was through mining or localbitcoins.... (or shady paypal / wire transfers out of the country) Now we can buy on coinbase / circle / etc... gyft came online. Someone can now easily live just on bitcoin alone. This is 8 months of incredible progress!
I'm not saying bitcoin necessarily WILL take over all our financial systems, but the internet payments sector / wealth accumulation / speculation vehicle portions of bitcoin if they DO happen will basically happen incredibly quickly... Despite being complex... bitcoin is actually much simpler to use and implement than current banking and payment structures. Once we reach a certain point with bitcoin.... mass adoption will be incredible and very quick, think smartphone adoption.... from 2007 with the first iphone / android phones to 2014 where everyone has a smartphone / iphone. Also cell phone adoption... When I entered high school in 1999, 1% of kids maybe had a cell phone if any.. by the time my little sister graduated in 2005, every kid had a cell phone. I think that will be the speed at which this thing happens. 7 year boom.
25-30 years might be the range for TOTAL adoption.... but 80-90% of bitcoins major growth periods for bitcoin and bitcoin type technologies will happen within a decade, not a quarter of a century.
I think you make good points, but maybe you are getting ahead of yourself wrt retailDo you people not remember how quickly the the internet transformed purchasing and absolutely destroyed most brick and mortar outfits within 3-5 years?
How quickly did netflix put all video stores out of business? I fondly remember going to the video store to rent movies... it was only 2-3 years ago!
Now Look how far we have come in only 8 months... Last year we didn't even know if bitcoin was legal!, now the US is creating regulation and large companies seem to be embracing it. Dish Network and big gold retailers legitimizing bitcoin, Last year, the only way to get bitcoins was through mining or localbitcoins.... (or shady paypal / wire transfers out of the country) Now we can buy on coinbase / circle / etc... gyft came online. Someone can now easily live just on bitcoin alone. This is 8 months of incredible progress!
I'm not saying bitcoin necessarily WILL take over all our financial systems, but the internet payments sector / wealth accumulation / speculation vehicle portions of bitcoin if they DO happen will basically happen incredibly quickly... Despite being complex... bitcoin is actually much simpler to use and implement than current banking and payment structures. Once we reach a certain point with bitcoin.... mass adoption will be incredible and very quick, think smartphone adoption.... from 2007 with the first iphone / android phones to 2014 where everyone has a smartphone / iphone. Also cell phone adoption... When I entered high school in 1999, 1% of kids maybe had a cell phone if any.. by the time my little sister graduated in 2005, every kid had a cell phone. I think that will be the speed at which this thing happens. 7 year boom.
25-30 years might be the range for TOTAL adoption.... but 80-90% of bitcoins major growth periods for bitcoin and bitcoin type technologies will happen within a decade, not a quarter of a century.
According to Peter_R's Metcalf Law model, the bitcoin price is proportional to the square of the number of transactions. An increase of 3.2x in bitcoin transaction quantity supports a 10x increase in bitcoin price. Currently, transaction volume is about 60,000 daily. To support prices 1000x greater than today we need transaction growth 31.6x greater. That works out to 1.9 million transactions per day. Is that doable in three years?
You mean like 22 transactions per second, or 13200 transactions per block, with about 6.6Mb each?Not possible by this metric alone, so maybe on-chain Bitcoin will not reach 1M USD in the next 3 years?
Also current price growth suggests a price of 3.67M USD in exactly 3 years, something has to change for this to be possible.
According to Peter_R's Metcalf Law model, the bitcoin price is proportional to the square of the number of transactions. An increase of 3.2x in bitcoin transaction quantity supports a 10x increase in bitcoin price. Currently, transaction volume is about 60,000 daily. To support prices 1000x greater than today we need transaction growth 31.6x greater. That works out to 1.9 million transactions per day. Is that doable in three years?
You mean like 22 transactions per second, or 13200 transactions per block, with about 6.6Mb each?Not possible by this metric alone, so maybe on-chain Bitcoin will not reach 1M USD in the next 3 years?
Also current price growth suggests a price of 3.67M USD in exactly 3 years, something has to change for this to be possible.
Assuming bitcoin does take over a lot of traditional uses of money; People who think it will take 25-30 years for bitcoin to take hold are absolutely mental in my opinion.
Do you people not remember how quickly the the internet transformed purchasing and absolutely destroyed most brick and mortar outfits within 3-5 years?
How quickly did netflix put all video stores out of business? I fondly remember going to the video store to rent movies... it was only 2-3 years ago!
Now Look how far we have come in only 8 months... Last year we didn't even know if bitcoin was legal!, now the US is creating regulation and large companies seem to be embracing it. Dish Network and big gold retailers legitimizing bitcoin, Last year, the only way to get bitcoins was through mining or localbitcoins.... (or shady paypal / wire transfers out of the country) Now we can buy on coinbase / circle / etc... gyft came online. Someone can now easily live just on bitcoin alone. This is 8 months of incredible progress!
I'm not saying bitcoin necessarily WILL take over all our financial systems, but the internet payments sector / wealth accumulation / speculation vehicle portions of bitcoin if they DO happen will basically happen incredibly quickly... Despite being complex... bitcoin is actually much simpler to use and implement than current banking and payment structures. Once we reach a certain point with bitcoin.... mass adoption will be incredible and very quick, think smartphone adoption.... from 2007 with the first iphone / android phones to 2014 where everyone has a smartphone / iphone. Also cell phone adoption... When I entered high school in 1999, 1% of kids maybe had a cell phone if any.. by the time my little sister graduated in 2005, every kid had a cell phone. I think that will be the speed at which this thing happens. 7 year boom.
25-30 years might be the range for TOTAL adoption.... but 80-90% of bitcoins major growth periods for bitcoin and bitcoin type technologies will happen within a decade, not a quarter of a century.
Do you people not remember how quickly the the internet transformed purchasing and absolutely destroyed most brick and mortar outfits within 3-5 years?
How quickly did netflix put all video stores out of business? I fondly remember going to the video store to rent movies... it was only 2-3 years ago!
Now Look how far we have come in only 8 months... Last year we didn't even know if bitcoin was legal!, now the US is creating regulation and large companies seem to be embracing it. Dish Network and big gold retailers legitimizing bitcoin, Last year, the only way to get bitcoins was through mining or localbitcoins.... (or shady paypal / wire transfers out of the country) Now we can buy on coinbase / circle / etc... gyft came online. Someone can now easily live just on bitcoin alone. This is 8 months of incredible progress!
I'm not saying bitcoin necessarily WILL take over all our financial systems, but the internet payments sector / wealth accumulation / speculation vehicle portions of bitcoin if they DO happen will basically happen incredibly quickly... Despite being complex... bitcoin is actually much simpler to use and implement than current banking and payment structures. Once we reach a certain point with bitcoin.... mass adoption will be incredible and very quick, think smartphone adoption.... from 2007 with the first iphone / android phones to 2014 where everyone has a smartphone / iphone. Also cell phone adoption... When I entered high school in 1999, 1% of kids maybe had a cell phone if any.. by the time my little sister graduated in 2005, every kid had a cell phone. I think that will be the speed at which this thing happens. 7 year boom.
25-30 years might be the range for TOTAL adoption.... but 80-90% of bitcoins major growth periods for bitcoin and bitcoin type technologies will happen within a decade, not a quarter of a century.
You could possibly attribute this entire chart to the advancement of tumblers.
And the growth could also be attributed to the payment of mining rewards to hashers.
I perform a couple of transactions each day. One of those is a daily purchase of fractional bitcoin from my local ATM, and the second is a small bitcoin payment from someone who leases one of my three GPU mining rigs to mine altcoins. I am postponing Bitcoin spending during what I believe is the run up to the next, widely expected, bubble.
The Bitcoin Pulse web site tracks numerous fundamental Bitcoin adoption statistics.
I would assume that as bitcoin true e-commerce (i.e., more places for users to actually spend bitcoin, financial institutions, etc.) takes off, and provided that Coinbase and BitPay don't dominate the merchant market and execute every transaction off-blockchain, it's possible that yearly transaction growth of 3.2X could grow to something higher in the future?
You could possibly attribute this entire chart to the advancement of tumblers.
And the growth could also be attributed to the payment of mining rewards to hashers.
I perform a couple of transactions each day. One of those is a daily purchase of fractional bitcoin from my local ATM, and the second is a small bitcoin payment from someone who leases one of my three GPU mining rigs to mine altcoins. I am postponing Bitcoin spending during what I believe is the run up to the next, widely expected, bubble.
The Bitcoin Pulse web site tracks numerous fundamental Bitcoin adoption statistics.
^^^
SS, what does this transaction volume extrapolate out to on the chart over the next 3 years? Is this a linear growth rate transaction volume, or exponential?
SS, what does this transaction volume extrapolate out to on the chart over the next 3 years? Is this a linear growth rate transaction volume, or exponential?
The number of transactions has fallen off in the last couple of months, but over the past two years transactions have grown exponentially at the rate of 3.2x annually. Some think that off-blockchain transactions are responsible for the recent fall-off. Off-blockchain transactions would be those performed between accounts at Coinbase for example.
You could possibly attribute this entire chart to the advancement of tumblers.
^^^
SS, what does this transaction volume extrapolate out to on the above chart over the next 3 years? Is this a linear growth rate in transaction volume, or exponential?
SS, what does this transaction volume extrapolate out to on the above chart over the next 3 years? Is this a linear growth rate in transaction volume, or exponential?
I believe it is ridiculous to think that in 3 years bitcoin will be
-As big in market cap as the U.S. dollar.
-Fully intergrated with all merchants and all consumers
-Full integrated into wall street
-The currency of choice in the mainstream with all consumers clearly choosing bitcoin over fiat
-All employees salaries are paid in btc, all bills are paid in btc, you pay your rent and taxes in btc, etc.
This is the type of thing that the $1,000,000 mark would imply, and I think it would take a lot longer than 3 years. I think it would take it 10 years at least.
That would mean that the 'trendline' needs some serious adjustment - perhaps it is a different shape altogether than a simple exponential increase.
-As big in market cap as the U.S. dollar.
-Fully intergrated with all merchants and all consumers
-Full integrated into wall street
-The currency of choice in the mainstream with all consumers clearly choosing bitcoin over fiat
-All employees salaries are paid in btc, all bills are paid in btc, you pay your rent and taxes in btc, etc.
This is the type of thing that the $1,000,000 mark would imply, and I think it would take a lot longer than 3 years. I think it would take it 10 years at least.
That would mean that the 'trendline' needs some serious adjustment - perhaps it is a different shape altogether than a simple exponential increase.
I don't think BTC has to actually have achieved all that you list above. Just the possiblity that it might will propel the price massively upwards. That said I don't think it will take it anywhere near $1m within 3 years.
According to Peter_R's Metcalf Law model, the bitcoin price is proportional to the square of the number of transactions. An increase of 3.2x in bitcoin transaction quantity supports a 10x increase in bitcoin price. Currently, transaction volume is about 60,000 daily. To support prices 1000x greater than today we need transaction growth 31.6x greater. That works out to 1.9 million transactions per day. Is that doable in three years?
I believe it is ridiculous to think that in 3 years bitcoin will be
-As big in market cap as the U.S. dollar.
-Fully intergrated with all merchants and all consumers
-Full integrated into wall street
-The currency of choice in the mainstream with all consumers clearly choosing bitcoin over fiat
-All employees salaries are paid in btc, all bills are paid in btc, you pay your rent and taxes in btc, etc.
This is the type of thing that the $1,000,000 mark would imply, and I think it would take a lot longer than 3 years. I think it would take it 10 years at least.
That would mean that the 'trendline' needs some serious adjustment - perhaps it is a different shape altogether than a simple exponential increase.
-As big in market cap as the U.S. dollar.
-Fully intergrated with all merchants and all consumers
-Full integrated into wall street
-The currency of choice in the mainstream with all consumers clearly choosing bitcoin over fiat
-All employees salaries are paid in btc, all bills are paid in btc, you pay your rent and taxes in btc, etc.
This is the type of thing that the $1,000,000 mark would imply, and I think it would take a lot longer than 3 years. I think it would take it 10 years at least.
That would mean that the 'trendline' needs some serious adjustment - perhaps it is a different shape altogether than a simple exponential increase.
I don't think BTC has to actually have achieved all that you list above. Just the possiblity that it might will propel the price massively upwards. That said I don't think it will take it anywhere near $1m within 3 years.
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