Bitfinex seems to be pulling away from stamp... why?!
(I don't like seeing price action I don't recognise!)
Because it is disconnected. (I don't like seeing price action I don't recognise!)
Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 179. (Read 907229 times)
Bitfinex seems to be pulling away from stamp... why?!
(I don't like seeing price action I don't recognise!)
(I don't like seeing price action I don't recognise!)
Someone sold one bitcoin in 2022....Jesseeeee!
Edit: A single (and not the best by far) basketball club was sold for $2 bil and bitcoin is worth ~7bil. This is crazy.
Edit: A single (and not the best by far) basketball club was sold for $2 bil and bitcoin is worth ~7bil. This is crazy.
The only reason I see for someone to sell a bitcoin in 2022 for that amount of useless paper is if he was having serious bowel movement.
this post is nominated for Best Joke of the Day
Someone sold one bitcoin in 2022....Jesseeeee!
Edit: A single (and not the best by far) basketball club was sold for $2 bil and bitcoin is worth ~7bil. This is crazy.
Edit: A single (and not the best by far) basketball club was sold for $2 bil and bitcoin is worth ~7bil. This is crazy.
The only reason I see for someone to sell a bitcoin in 2022 for that amount of useless paper is if he was having serious bowel movement.
As much as that sounds awesome, that means that the market cap (assuming most of the 21 million coins are in circulation by then) would be 21,000,000,000,000 (or 21 trillion).
I forgot where I heard about if BTC reaches 300k, that would be around gold standard.
To me, it seems mind boggling and might (or might not) go around those areas.
[edit]: If bitcoin becomes international payment (around the world). Seems more possible (then if it just stays mainly in one area (like China or US or something)
Payments is small time. If you add up the market caps of VISA, MasterCard, Western Union, and Paypal, you get on the order of a couple hundred billion.
The money is in the wealth assets. Gold itself is $6 trillion. And gold is a very very small part of people's wealth. Add up real estate, stocks, and bonds, and you'll see some monster numbers.
Heck, just add up the nations of the worlds' reserve assets. I can readily see Bitcoin becoming THE reserve currency of the world. Now that would be a big number.
This is why I don't worry about merchant adoption: its use as a speculative store of value is the primary driver of the price, and it's much more important.
Bitcoin doesn't have to reach full adoption to achieve its fullest value - it just has to look probable that it will, its all pricing expectations ultimately.
If $1,000,000 is full value then we are currently pricing in a 0.057% chance that this happens (EDIT: not entirely accurate, lets use very low probability instead), possibly a little low? or the market does not believe that $1,000,000 is really the final value, in which case move that trendline lower as it's location is entirely dependant on slipperyslopes' $1,000,000 assumption.
Your argument is essentially correct but is missing one component: an efficient market. For that we need easy entry into the asset and we don't have that yet. It's only easy for small time US citizens to get bitcoins (Coinbase). It's hard for people elsewhere. It's especially hard for large institutions to get in. Until it's easy for Wall Street to put in (and take out) billions at the click of a mouse, we don't have fast price discovery. My guess is if a Bitcoin ETF existed, the probability of Bitcoin hitting $1 million would be much higher as reflected in the price.
Breaking news: rpetelia's actual photo is released:
Looks like we have a bull pennant pattern...which could signify a breakout to the lower to mid 600's soon.
This price is only marginally affected by the amount of gold above ground or the number of brilliant and rare NotLambchop originals.
Simple.
Now you now.
The current price is not affected, no. We are talking about a future price in the hypothesis of success and full adoption as a global store of value and unit of transfer.
It is not that the quantity of above ground gold changes anything, but it is about the wealth that it represents today in relation with the functions that it plays today.
First, let's deal with a few misconceptions.
The amount of gold in the world does not represent the total "wealth" of the world. Nor does the combined total of gold and silver. Nor does the combined total of gold, silver, cowrie shells and NotLambchop originals.
Another strange loop you enter into when giving (total fiat /total bitcoin) ratios is "what happens with total fiat after such an exchange?"
In other words, if each Bitcoin, in a quest for world domination. is sold for the equal share of the world's fiat supply, what is that huge pile of fiat worth after the sale? Nothing? Than why would the seller of bitcoin make such an unprofitable deal?
Half of what it was worth before the sale?
And what of the gold, which wasn't part of that exchange?
Such fundamental misunderstanding here...
Where did I or anyone say that the gold represents the total wealth of the world ?
"what happens with total fiat after such an exchange?"
Why would anything happen to the fiat used to buy bitcoin after an exchange ? Why would it be nothing after the sale ?
Who enters into strange loops ?
Full bitcoin adoption means less use of fiat for transactions and storage of value, and less use of gold for storage of value, and less use of real estate for storage of value, and a comparable lowering of fiat and gold value and real estate value relative to total global wealth. Indeed, bitcoin, a new player takes these functions and "steals" a % in the representation of global wealth. Global wealth remains the same, but what is used to transact it and represent it changes.
Your points didn't add anything to the discussion and were only about bashing others about poor understanding while showing no argument whatsoever.
If you could write a post with some logic or honesty and without blaming others for poor understanding I will reconsider the troll label that was just stick on "NotLambchop".
You believe that in only 3 years, bitcoin will reach "full adoption" and achieve its full potential in which it becomes larger than a fiat currency. That seems like too little of an amount of time for that type of development (if such a thing could even happen at all).
I chose the maximum value of $1 million because there a plausible arguments by others that justify such a price. My model is about the adoption by people and organizations buying bitcoin. Perhaps in three years half of all such investors/speculators will have made their respective investments.
There is a provocative model of bitcoin prices as the realtime unfolding of Metcalf's Law, well charted by Peter_R. I reference it Metcalfe's Law and Complete Triumph of Bitcoin Indicate $100 per Satoshi in 2022
Suppose that it takes until 2022 for complete adoption. The Metcalf Model price is $10 billion per bitcoin, and $100 per Satoshi. Hard to believe that now, but I am working on a change to Bitcoin that helps move us in that direction - I believe. Visit my thread in Alternate cryptocurrencies for the whitepaper.
That would be a bit weird, that would make bitcoin (in total) be worth over 100 quadrillion or something. You're talking about today's dollars?
I wouldn't mind if that would happen, but I seriously doubt it. I think 1 to 10 million is plausible, and possibly even 100 million. But beyond that just doesn't seem likely. But I would definitly not mind being a billionaire.
Someone sold one bitcoin in 2022....Jesseeeee!
Edit: A single (and not the best by far) basketball club was sold for $2 bil and bitcoin is worth ~7bil. This is crazy.
[I chose the maximum value of $1 million because there a plausible arguments by others that justify such a price. My model is about the adoption by people and organizations buying bitcoin. Perhaps in three years half of all such investors/speculators will have made their respective investments.
There is a provocative model of bitcoin prices as the realtime unfolding of Metcalf's Law, well charted by Peter_R. I reference it Metcalfe's Law and Complete Triumph of Bitcoin Indicate $100 per Satoshi in 2022
Suppose that it takes until 2022 for complete adoption. The Metcalf Model price is $10 billion per bitcoin, and $100 per Satoshi. Hard to believe that now, but I am working on a change to Bitcoin that helps move us in that direction - I believe. Visit my thread in Alternate cryptocurrencies for the whitepaper.
There is a provocative model of bitcoin prices as the realtime unfolding of Metcalf's Law, well charted by Peter_R. I reference it Metcalfe's Law and Complete Triumph of Bitcoin Indicate $100 per Satoshi in 2022
Suppose that it takes until 2022 for complete adoption. The Metcalf Model price is $10 billion per bitcoin, and $100 per Satoshi. Hard to believe that now, but I am working on a change to Bitcoin that helps move us in that direction - I believe. Visit my thread in Alternate cryptocurrencies for the whitepaper.
That would be a bit weird, that would make bitcoin (in total) be worth over 100 quadrillion or something. You're talking about today's dollars?
I wouldn't mind if that would happen, but I seriously doubt it. I think 1 to 10 million is plausible, and possibly even 100 million. But beyond that just doesn't seem likely. But I would definitly not mind being a billionaire.
In some possible world in which a Satoshi is worth $100, holders almost never sell and the world economy runs on a tiny fraction of the Bitcoins mined.
[I chose the maximum value of $1 million because there a plausible arguments by others that justify such a price. My model is about the adoption by people and organizations buying bitcoin. Perhaps in three years half of all such investors/speculators will have made their respective investments.
There is a provocative model of bitcoin prices as the realtime unfolding of Metcalf's Law, well charted by Peter_R. I reference it Metcalfe's Law and Complete Triumph of Bitcoin Indicate $100 per Satoshi in 2022
Suppose that it takes until 2022 for complete adoption. The Metcalf Model price is $10 billion per bitcoin, and $100 per Satoshi. Hard to believe that now, but I am working on a change to Bitcoin that helps move us in that direction - I believe. Visit my thread in Alternate cryptocurrencies for the whitepaper.
There is a provocative model of bitcoin prices as the realtime unfolding of Metcalf's Law, well charted by Peter_R. I reference it Metcalfe's Law and Complete Triumph of Bitcoin Indicate $100 per Satoshi in 2022
Suppose that it takes until 2022 for complete adoption. The Metcalf Model price is $10 billion per bitcoin, and $100 per Satoshi. Hard to believe that now, but I am working on a change to Bitcoin that helps move us in that direction - I believe. Visit my thread in Alternate cryptocurrencies for the whitepaper.
That would be a bit weird, that would make bitcoin (in total) be worth over 100 quadrillion or something. You're talking about today's dollars?
I wouldn't mind if that would happen, but I seriously doubt it. I think 1 to 10 million is plausible, and possibly even 100 million. But beyond that just doesn't seem likely. But I would definitly not mind being a billionaire.
In some possible world in which a Satoshi is worth $100, holders almost never sell and the world economy runs on a tiny fraction of the Bitcoins mined.
You believe that in only 3 years, bitcoin will reach "full adoption" and achieve its full potential in which it becomes larger than a fiat currency. That seems like too little of an amount of time for that type of development (if such a thing could even happen at all).
I chose the maximum value of $1 million because there a plausible arguments by others that justify such a price. My model is about the adoption by people and organizations buying bitcoin. Perhaps in three years half of all such investors/speculators will have made their respective investments.
There is a provocative model of bitcoin prices as the realtime unfolding of Metcalf's Law, well charted by Peter_R. I reference it Metcalfe's Law and Complete Triumph of Bitcoin Indicate $100 per Satoshi in 2022
Suppose that it takes until 2022 for complete adoption. The Metcalf Model price is $10 billion per bitcoin, and $100 per Satoshi. Hard to believe that now, but I am working on a change to Bitcoin that helps move us in that direction - I believe. Visit my thread in Alternate cryptocurrencies for the whitepaper.
That would be a bit weird, that would make bitcoin (in total) be worth over 100 quadrillion or something. You're talking about today's dollars?
I wouldn't mind if that would happen, but I seriously doubt it. I think 1 to 10 million is plausible, and possibly even 100 million. But beyond that just doesn't seem likely. But I would definitly not mind being a billionaire.
You believe that in only 3 years, bitcoin will reach "full adoption" and achieve its full potential in which it becomes larger than a fiat currency. That seems like too little of an amount of time for that type of development (if such a thing could even happen at all).
I chose the maximum value of $1 million because there a plausible arguments by others that justify such a price. My model is about the adoption by people and organizations buying bitcoin. Perhaps in three years half of all such investors/speculators will have made their respective investments.
There is a provocative model of bitcoin prices as the realtime unfolding of Metcalf's Law, well charted by Peter_R. I reference it Metcalfe's Law and Complete Triumph of Bitcoin Indicate $100 per Satoshi in 2022
Suppose that it takes until 2022 for complete adoption. The Metcalf Model price is $10 billion per bitcoin, and $100 per Satoshi. Hard to believe that now, but I am working on a change to Bitcoin that helps move us in that direction - I believe. Visit my thread in Alternate cryptocurrencies for the whitepaper.
So, 0.05 BTC would be a cool $500 mil and kids of the current miners who were donating 0.05 BTC antminer S1 coupons left and right (I am guilty of that too) might be unhappy about that in the future.
It might happen, but perhaps in the 22nd century and not in 2022, though. I would be completely satisfied in my lifetime to have bitcoin valued at $1 mil in current $$. This price is only marginally affected by the amount of gold above ground or the number of brilliant and rare NotLambchop originals.
Simple.
Now you now.
The current price is not affected, no. We are talking about a future price in the hypothesis of success and full adoption as a global store of value and unit of transfer.
It is not that the quantity of above ground gold changes anything, but it is about the wealth that it represents today in relation with the functions that it plays today.
First, let's deal with a few misconceptions.
The amount of gold in the world does not represent the total "wealth" of the world. Nor does the combined total of gold and silver. Nor does the combined total of gold, silver, cowrie shells and NotLambchop originals.
Another strange loop you enter into when giving (total fiat /total bitcoin) ratios is "what happens with total fiat after such an exchange?"
In other words, if each Bitcoin, in a quest for world domination. is sold for the equal share of the world's fiat supply, what is that huge pile of fiat worth after the sale? Nothing? Than why would the seller of bitcoin make such an unprofitable deal?
Half of what it was worth before the sale?
And what of the gold, which wasn't part of that exchange?
Such fundamental misunderstanding here...
You believe that in only 3 years, bitcoin will reach "full adoption" and achieve its full potential in which it becomes larger than a fiat currency. That seems like too little of an amount of time for that type of development (if such a thing could even happen at all).
I chose the maximum value of $1 million because there a plausible arguments by others that justify such a price. My model is about the adoption by people and organizations buying bitcoin. Perhaps in three years half of all such investors/speculators will have made their respective investments.
There is a provocative model of bitcoin prices as the realtime unfolding of Metcalf's Law, well charted by Peter_R. I reference it Metcalfe's Law and Complete Triumph of Bitcoin Indicate $100 per Satoshi in 2022
Suppose that it takes until 2022 for complete adoption. The Metcalf Model price is $10 billion per bitcoin, and $100 per Satoshi. Hard to believe that now, but I am working on a change to Bitcoin that helps move us in that direction - I believe. Visit my thread in Alternate cryptocurrencies for the whitepaper.
The short term triangle I present below lacks the drama and importance of the recently broken trendline down from the November 2013 peak. I suppose that it will break out to the upside in a day or two. Or conversely drop down to test $550 again.
My logistic model trendline value is $1404 rising over $10 each day.
This is the 2-hour resolution chart from Bitstamp drawn with BitcoinWisdom . . .
My logistic model trendline value is $1404 rising over $10 each day.
This is the 2-hour resolution chart from Bitstamp drawn with BitcoinWisdom . . .
Did we break out of this wedge to the downside?
Yes, I suggest that we have. I hope for consolidation at this point, not a retracement back to $510 or so, where the price previously stalled for a couple of days.
This price is only marginally affected by the amount of gold above ground or the number of brilliant and rare NotLambchop originals.
Simple.
Now you now.
The current price is not affected, no. We are talking about a future price in the hypothesis of success and full adoption as a global store of value and unit of transfer.
It is not that the quantity of above ground gold changes anything, but it is about the wealth that it represents today in relation with the functions that it plays today.
^Simply pointing out AlexGR's broken logic. It may be unlikely that I'll be paid 180k tons of gold for my piece of toilet paper, though the ratio I have presented is correct.
The ratio presented by AlexGR is also correct, and equally meaningless.
The ratio presented by AlexGR is also correct, and equally meaningless.
Equally meaningless ? No.
In the case of bitcoin, it fulfils the function of gold - the difference is that bitcoin fulfils it better because it is easily transferable anywhere in the world, it has way less "storage" cost and it is easy to check what is in the vault (impossible to lie), and it is much more difficult to manipulate its price on the markets.
Today people are not aware that bitcoin is a better store of value than gold, but they might be in the future. The current trend says so.
In the case of your piece of toilet paper, nobody heard of it, and everyone would expect that you will create thousands of them if people would give it value - therefore it has none.
The ratio of gold/fiat btc/fiat makes sense and gives a good indication of potential value of BTC. If BTC does a better job at storing value and if it succeeds, its value should go beyond the calculated ratio of 15kg of gold of 1 BTC.
^Simply pointing out AlexGR's broken logic. It may be unlikely that I'll be paid 180k tons of gold for my piece of toilet paper, though the ratio I have presented is correct.
The ratio presented by AlexGR is also correct, and equally meaningless.
The ratio presented by AlexGR is also correct, and equally meaningless.
If you were into numismatics you'd understand the meaning of mintage and scarcity. There is a reason why a 1933 double eagle costs 7 million dollars: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1933_double_eagle
Scarcity.
I'm not, but if you were into collecting art, you'd know that a signed 2014 NotLambchop original is far more rare.
Scarcity.
Quote
There is a reason why 42 costs like 20 BTC. Scarcity & ratios.
You might not understand the scarcity factor but A LOT of people do understand it and invest insane amounts of money to acquire scarcity.
You might not understand the scarcity factor but A LOT of people do understand it and invest insane amounts of money to acquire scarcity.
It's clearly you who doesn't understand scarcity. Even after I elaborated that only one original, signed Toilet Paper Square With Words by NotLambchop, exists.
Just one. If it was any more scarce none would exist.
Imagine that?
Quote
There is no "correct" or "wrong" rationality, it's just what different people value. For you a 1933 double eagle might be more like 1 oz of gold that is scrap metal - just like a 1932/31/30/29 etc. For another it is worth 7.5mn dollars. That's just how it goes.
As I write this, the price of 1 BTC on Bitstamp is $568.88. Anyone paying substantially less is getting a deal, anyone paying substantially more isn't.
This price is only marginally affected by the amount of gold above ground or the number of brilliant and rare NotLambchop originals.
Simple.
Now you now.
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