Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 176. (Read 907229 times)
I'd like to take a moment to remind everyone that the future is not written in stone and we are not all destined to be the super mega wealthy elite for doing nothing.
i will be happy with four doubling
I'd be pretty much wetting my pants
I would quit my job
I was checking the neural network predictions: http://www.btcpredictions.com/
Indicates stability in 600-620 region for next 10-11 days then drops off a cliff
The neural network between your ears works much better.Indicates stability in 600-620 region for next 10-11 days then drops off a cliff
ye, i once tried some very advanced market-analyzing computer on bitcoin and it kept saying it would crash to 0 within weeks.
Bitcoin is just too different for normal analyzing tools to understand it.
i will be happy with four doubling
I'd be pretty much wetting my pants
i will be happy with four doubling
Did rpietila check out?
I heard rumors he is on a cruise. Not sure if that is true but I would love an update.
I am curious if he thinks we are still looking at the new ATH for August or are we back to thinking it is going to be late July.
I shall soon begin recording the price doubling times. In the past, bitcoin when the price doubles in a week or less, then the peak is very close.
What I anticipate, based upon the June 2011, April 2013 and November 2013 bubbles . . .
The low recorded in the collapse of the November 2013 bubble - $340
First doubling - $680 (June)
Second doubling - $1360 (July)
Third doubling - $2720 (July)
Fourth doubling - $5440 (I think the late July peak will be near this value)
Fifth doubling - $10880 (probably will not happen unless the peak is in the fall)
Assuming bitcoin does take over a lot of traditional uses of money; People who think it will take 25-30 years for bitcoin to take hold are absolutely mental in my opinion.
Do you people not remember how quickly the the internet transformed purchasing and absolutely destroyed most brick and mortar outfits within 3-5 years?
Do you people not remember how quickly the the internet transformed purchasing and absolutely destroyed most brick and mortar outfits within 3-5 years?
No, I remember ARPAnet which started in 1969. 25 years is 1994, the year the web started. 5 years after that (1999) you pretty much had to have a web site or you were out of business. So...30 years.
Quote
How quickly did netflix put all video stores out of business? I fondly remember going to the video store to rent movies... it was only 2-3 years ago!
But Netflix started in 1997 (I was a member when they had only 50 titles on DVD and half of them were IMAX movies). Some Blockbusters closed THIS YEAR. That's 17 years.
Quote
from 2007 with the first iphone / android phones to 2014 where everyone has a smartphone / iphone. Also cell phone adoption... When I entered high school in 1999, 1% of kids maybe had a cell phone if any.. by the time my little sister graduated in 2005, every kid had a cell phone. I think that will be the speed at which this thing happens. 7 year boom.
The first smartphone was the Samsung SPH-i300, (Palm PDA Phone) in 2001. That's 12-13 years before everyone has a smartphone.
Quote
25-30 years might be the range for TOTAL adoption.... but 80-90% of bitcoins major growth periods for bitcoin and bitcoin type technologies will happen within a decade, not a quarter of a century.
I think you are severely overestimating how far along bitcoin is right now. For full adoption, bitcoin has to look very different.
A price of above $840,000 by July 1 2017 is one of the most optimistic predictions I have seen. In percentage terms, how likely do you think it is that that will happen?
You just skipped over my optimistic prediction of $3,700,000 by July 1 2017. Remember that EVERYONE that predicted until now the price for more than a year into the future has severely undershot their numbers. So you think we could see $30,000 to $100,000 over the next couple of years?
Me? Yes. I think we'll see $30,000 next year and $100,000 probably after the halving to 1800 coins per day (around July 2016 now).
Did rpietila check out?
I heard rumors he is on a cruise. Not sure if that is true but I would love an update.
I am curious if he thinks we are still looking at the new ATH for August or are we back to thinking it is going to be late July.
Quote
Currently, I suppose that the mining reward is mostly spent on new mining equipment and power. The equipment manufacturers may accept bitcoin payments. So a portion of the mining reward may stay in bitcoin and not be exchanged for fiat. In the summer of 2016 the block creation reward is scheduled to again halve to 12.6 bitcoins per mined block. My logistic model has a trend price of about $840,000 for July 1, 2017. So three years from now, 1800 daily block creation reward bitcoins would have a fiat value of $151 million. Even if converted entirely into fiat, I think that figure is achievable by worldwide investment.
A price of above $840,000 by July 1 2017 is one of the most optimistic predictions I have seen. In percentage terms, how likely do you think it is that that will happen?
If we get to $269,000 by July 1, 2016 then I would say 50%. Otherwise who knows. The Metcalfe's Law model is compelling.
Did rpietila check out?
I was checking the neural network predictions: http://www.btcpredictions.com/
Indicates stability in 600-620 region for next 10-11 days then drops off a cliff
The neural network between your ears works much better. Indicates stability in 600-620 region for next 10-11 days then drops off a cliff
I was checking the neural network predictions: http://www.btcpredictions.com/
Indicates stability in 600-620 region for next 10-11 days then drops off a cliff
Indicates stability in 600-620 region for next 10-11 days then drops off a cliff
One could make that happen much faster, without transactions, if instead of waiting on the wisdom charts all day, he drove BTC demand up drying liquidity... how? With the plan I proposed earlier about minting physical gold/platinum/silver coins with BTCs in them for collectors and precious metal "stackers". This could drive the entire annual supply of BTCs out of circulation, every year - thus making (practical) inflation go to zero or negative, as new bitcoins are "stacked" as rounds / collectibles. The number of 1 oz gold rounds that are sold every year are like millions. Same for silver rounds... only the US mint makes 50mn american silver eagles. What if stackers and collectors had the option to buy gold+silver+btc in them? It would be a triple-hedge-coin against fiat consisting of PM, collectible/rare (due to bitcoins rarity) and self-hedged between bitcoin and gold/silver/platinum.
Silver/Goldbugs generally dislike bitcoin but what they do really hate is FIAT - so in this they sometimes find Bitcoin to be an ally (and sometimes to be a government scam to divert from their favorite PMs). Some times they also understand numismatics and how mintage affects rarity and value and in this they can't really escape the proposition of gold bitcoins. People are currently paying premiums for ...Pandas (gold coins in china), why wouldn't they pay if there was a gold coin + 1 btc in it?
Silver/Goldbugs generally dislike bitcoin but what they do really hate is FIAT - so in this they sometimes find Bitcoin to be an ally (and sometimes to be a government scam to divert from their favorite PMs). Some times they also understand numismatics and how mintage affects rarity and value and in this they can't really escape the proposition of gold bitcoins. People are currently paying premiums for ...Pandas (gold coins in china), why wouldn't they pay if there was a gold coin + 1 btc in it?
you forget that when 1 BTC is added to gold 1 oz coins, the price of that BTC will become higher, and the next year, less people will be able to afford the new coin for that year. In the end, they are buying BTC with a golden cold storage option
Don't think your proposal would have a large effect. Although, I'm sure that most of the casascius coins who are already "in the wild", will not be opened for a long time.
You can check it here: http://casascius.uberbills.com/
Total unopened (active) coins: 57666.4 BTC
Especially the silver and gold coins will remain closed.
But that's the point... to get the price moving instead of simply waiting in front of the wisdom charts on how it will go up by others. If it has the desired effect, all the better. If the balance of price between 1oz + 1 BTC goes out of hand in favor of the BTC (>1:1), you simply make new coin denominations like 1oz + 0.5 btc for example. And this, in itself, from a numismatics perspective, creates further varieties of coin which add to their collectible status.
For example "war nickels" (5c coins in the USA during WW2) had 35% silver because the government didn't want to use copper. This is a historic fact which differentiates them from the other plain nickels. Then you have stuff like which mint minted a coin, the year of circulation etc.
So when each coin carries a bit of history with it, it's even better for the collector... for example "this coin was created after the june 2014 boom and had to compensate with less BTC value to keep prices affordable so it has 0.5 instead of 1 BTC"... Collectors love that stuff. Actually sometimes they pay way too much. You wouldn't believe the numismatic market. People are paying like +1000$ for a coin if it has one-two less minor scratches that takes it to ms67 instead of ms66 for example.
The "unopened" will be an added layer of rarity... It will be like saying Uncirculated + Unopened.
the previous rallies were much steeper than the purple line you show.
If the same pattern holds we should see the rally start rght about now (which seems to be happening) and end somewhere around one week before August at around $5000 or so.
If the same pattern holds we should see the rally start rght about now (which seems to be happening) and end somewhere around one week before August at around $5000 or so.
Here's what I'm looking at. I've drawn a purple trend line to the left.
Not the final spike, (which is likely to be retraced) but the next base for that spike - the next higher low.
Edit:
I have found error in my ways but it doesn't matter to me because it just forced in there really nice on my andrews pitchfork
Quote
https://www.tradingview.com/stock-charts-support/index.php/Three_Drivers_Pattern
Bullish Three Drivers Pattern
Always remember that symmetry of both price and time are of extreme importance in this pattern's formation.
Drives 2 and 3 should be specific extensions of the A and C retracements. The extensions should be 127.2% or 161.8%.
The A and C retracements will typically be either 61.8% or 78.6% of the previous swings. The possible exception is in strongly trending markets. If the market is trending strongly, these retracements may be only 38.2% or 50%.
The times (horizontal distances) of the A and C retracements should be as close to symmetrical as possible. The same is true for the extensions (the second and third drives to the bottom).
It is important to remember that this particular pattern is rare. This means that traders should not try to force the pattern onto the chart. If the formation contains price gaps or it is not symmetrical enough (slight variations are ok), it is best to abandon the formation and move on.
Warning from the rule book that I've forced the formation. I'm a curve fitting chARTist so I often draw what I believe will occur on the chart.
I think you're neglecting the recovery/ramp-up phase which historically has been symmetrical to the decline most of the time.
the previous rallies were much steeper than the purple line you show.
If the same pattern holds we should see the rally start rght about now (which seems to be happening) and end somewhere around one week before August at around $5000 or so.
If the same pattern holds we should see the rally start rght about now (which seems to be happening) and end somewhere around one week before August at around $5000 or so.
Current chart: https://www.tradingview.com/v/gT8w1Qnq/
This was drawn on May 25, see live chart above:
This was drawn on May 25, see live chart above:
One could make that happen much faster, without transactions, if instead of waiting on the wisdom charts all day, he drove BTC demand up drying liquidity... how? With the plan I proposed earlier about minting physical gold/platinum/silver coins with BTCs in them for collectors and precious metal "stackers". This could drive the entire annual supply of BTCs out of circulation, every year - thus making (practical) inflation go to zero or negative, as new bitcoins are "stacked" as rounds / collectibles. The number of 1 oz gold rounds that are sold every year are like millions. Same for silver rounds... only the US mint makes 50mn american silver eagles. What if stackers and collectors had the option to buy gold+silver+btc in them? It would be a triple-hedge-coin against fiat consisting of PM, collectible/rare (due to bitcoins rarity) and self-hedged between bitcoin and gold/silver/platinum.
Silver/Goldbugs generally dislike bitcoin but what they do really hate is FIAT - so in this they sometimes find Bitcoin to be an ally (and sometimes to be a government scam to divert from their favorite PMs). Some times they also understand numismatics and how mintage affects rarity and value and in this they can't really escape the proposition of gold bitcoins. People are currently paying premiums for ...Pandas (gold coins in china), why wouldn't they pay if there was a gold coin + 1 btc in it?
Silver/Goldbugs generally dislike bitcoin but what they do really hate is FIAT - so in this they sometimes find Bitcoin to be an ally (and sometimes to be a government scam to divert from their favorite PMs). Some times they also understand numismatics and how mintage affects rarity and value and in this they can't really escape the proposition of gold bitcoins. People are currently paying premiums for ...Pandas (gold coins in china), why wouldn't they pay if there was a gold coin + 1 btc in it?
you forget that when 1 BTC is added to gold 1 oz coins, the price of that BTC will become higher, and the next year, less people will be able to afford the new coin for that year. In the end, they are buying BTC with a golden cold storage option
Don't think your proposal would have a large effect. Although, I'm sure that most of the casascius coins who are already "in the wild", will not be opened for a long time.
You can check it here: http://casascius.uberbills.com/
Total unopened (active) coins: 57666.4 BTC
Especially the silver and gold coins will remain closed.
Jump to: