Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 215. (Read 907229 times)

The exponential trend at the close of the year points to about $3-$12 per mBTC.

The downtrend is quite firmly established. Technical analysis is very bearish short term. We have no reversal.

Buying now might be a good choice, but we will not know before some time. It's the falling knifes... Are you buying for long term investment ?
With a short term perspective it's a bit foolish to buy right now.

Random lines on Ronan's graph (yellow).

Question: In light of the current dip, buy now or later?

The timeframe is valid for the timeframe, so if the week candle closes distinctively outside the trendline the breakout is likely. On an hour timeframe, this would not be accurate. On dailys, this would be relatively accurate. Yes it is similar to TERA's, however offers both log and linear in one picture and thus shows more possible points to come to if the trends aren't broken before. Simply more data

rpietila, when you say you expect the price to multiply 10 fold this year, which price do you start from? - do you mean the lowest price of the year, circa 350 I think it was.

Dude, that makes no sense. Your lines selectively touch one or two points of data while ignoring the rest of the data points. It's just arbitrarily drawn in.  

No sense.

Too short a timeframe chosen resulting in less probable graphs, in my opinion.
It looks like a carbon copy of TERAs.

Fully agree with 2/2. The sentiment of the bitcoin community year to date is reminiscent of the gold/silver community of 2011-2013.

I thought I would add my two cents after making & tweeting some similar long term charts:

(1/2) I have some interesting charts for you guys: imgur.com/a/J2NZD

Both are the same. All are super powerful trendlines.

(2/2) Remember, crowd psych and manipulation will make you believe the trends are over. They aren't, until fully confirmed (closed candles)

Ultimately, I think these trendlines are of supreme importance, and it is difficult to know which are superior (the linear or log). However simply remembering it takes a long time and much capital to exit them, is your greatest fall back.

I just said the argument that we are going back to that support line does not hold, because we didn't revisit this support line between the peak at 266 and the peak at 1163. Quite far from it actually.
Even in April 2013, look at the chart, we are staying much higher than that supposed support. I said 50 USD just because there is no value on the chart and it's hard to guess on a log chart.
In the whole 2013 there was two big bull runs and a long decline. It could have been argued that we would go and revisit that support line, but we didn't.

This support line was good for 2012 but 2013 invalidated it imho.

We did in April '13, but I think MahaRamana is saying we should have hit it again in around Oct or Nov '13.

Quick TA update (at $0.460):
- 6H candle color/volume: red candles are taller, conclusion: bearish
- Bid/ask strengh at market (Bitstamp): slippage to sell 5k: $0.040, slippage to buy: $0.056, conclusion: easier to move to the upside
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.365 log units. The trendline is at $1.060 and rising $0.007 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (the 12-month range of the trendline is -0.404...+0.518)
- Sentiment: fearish, bearish, conclusion: less downside than generally feared
- Prognosis: shortest term don't know, mid-term not sure if reversal seems confirmed, long-term buy zone

ADD: If sentiment is bearish, it indicated that the price will surprise to the upside, and vice versa.

yes.

After 5.3 years of price data, with the new data always confirming the previous, with me trading the last bubble almost blind, solely based on this trendline, and netting 7 figures, the answer is....

Oh maybe I read that wrong, you said the money in the game increases x 10 each year but will the price do likewise?

so you still think BTC price will increase x10 this year & x10 next year again?

When the rise begins, the opinions of you and me concerning the preferential entry point don't matter squat. This is not a board game with limited number of players. Every year the money in the game 10-doubles, or otherwise Bitcoin is not a revolutionary technology that changes the world and we can all go to sleep.

When using the logarithmic trendline, two things must be observed:

- The base value of the trendline
- The deviation of the current price from the trend, expressed in log10 units (1 unit = price is 90% lower or 900% higher).

The range where the deviation typically wanders, which is seen as booms and crashes in the price chart, is -0.4...0.5 log units.

In 2014-7-15, for example:

-0.4 => $0.75
-0.3 => $0.95
-0.2 => $1.20
-0.1 => $1.53
0.0 => $1.94
+0.1 => $2.47
+0.2 => $3.10
+0.3 => $3.95
+0.4 => $4.90
+0.5 => $6.30.

This is a very wide range (basically a whole order of magnitude), so the trendline price in any future point cannot very accurately predict what the actual price in that point is. In the short term, the obscene range makes it useless, in the longer term, there are other uncertainties.

What it can do, however, is to gauge the buy and sell zones, which are points where the current price deviates from the trendline price significantly. At present we are in buy zone, because the current price is about -0.35 log units below the trendline price. Similarly in November we were in sell zone when the current price was over 0.4 units above.

The next sell signal comes when the price goes to 0.4 the next time, and it is unlikely to happen before July, so it is likewise unlikely for the top to be any lower than $5k.

Nobody stocks more coins at 200 because they'll all want 100. And might even get 100. On the same way, if everybody wanted 5000 usd coins... you get my point.