rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 214.

threecats

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Quote from: windjc on April 28, 2014, 07:11:37 AM

Quote from: TERA on April 28, 2014, 07:04:04 AM

Speaking of trendlines, there some EW trader who gave a 3 hour lecture on youtube about how all of the trendlines are going to break due to EW and they all have to retrace. Even that lower line, the one I'm following, he thinks is going to break. What do you think.

Dan is consistently wrong. And keeps altering his consistently wrongness. Follow him at your own peril.

Actually Dan was calling 400's back at 850.One would have made a shitload of money following his model. Say what you want about his low end, but to call him 'consistantly wrong' is undeserved.

pinksheep

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Oh of course, Thanks, I should have known that Roll Eyes

wachtwoord

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Quote from: windjc on April 28, 2014, 05:55:53 AM

if you are going to enter a bet, you have to be willing to take appropriate risks. A bet is inherently risky. That's why bets are not made for "profit," they are made for excitement and memories.

If you don't bet for profit: you're doing it wrong.

chessnut

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Quote from: pinksheep on April 28, 2014, 07:18:57 AM

Forgive my ignorance again but what does the EW stand for in EW analysis?

Elliot Wave.
Its wave theory, theorised first by a fella called Elliot.

pinksheep

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Forgive my ignorance again but what does the EW stand for in EW analysis?

frienemy

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I was promised da moon

Quote from: TERA on April 28, 2014, 07:04:04 AM

Speaking of trendlines, there some EW trader who gave a 3 hour lecture on youtube about how all of the trendlines are going to break due to EW and they all have to retrace. Even that lower line, the one I'm following, he thinks is going to break. What do you think.

There is another thread already discussing that one.

I looked at the video about 2 or 3 minutes until I realised it's 3 hours long and then gave up. But anyway, for the price going down like that, there would be too many prerequisites and I don't think EW analysis has to be right all the time and there are multiple interpretations regarding EWs on graphs. Furthermore, all the hodlers would have to sell, which is improbable IMO. In addition, no fresh money would have to come in, no Wall St., no Winklevoss, no new technology making bitcoin even more attractive.

I agree with you, bitcoin might come down a bit, although I'm not as bearish as you short term. Actually I hope the bottom was already in, but I'm prepared for hodling through further dips as long as it goes up in the end, even if that would take a while.

windjc

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Quote from: TERA on April 28, 2014, 07:04:04 AM

Speaking of trendlines, there some EW trader who gave a 3 hour lecture on youtube about how all of the trendlines are going to break due to EW and they all have to retrace. Even that lower line, the one I'm following, he thinks is going to break. What do you think.

Dan is consistently wrong. And keeps altering his consistently wrongness. Follow him at your own peril.

rpietila

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Quote from: TERA on April 28, 2014, 07:04:04 AM

Speaking of trendlines, there some EW trader who gave a 3 hour lecture on youtube about how all of the trendlines are going to break due to EW and they all have to retrace. Even that lower line, the one I'm following, he thinks is going to break. What do you think.

Two cases:

- Bitcoin is broken and adoption reverses

- Previously unimaginable attack on exchanges makes all bitcoin exchange go off-chart (essentially Mt.Gox price all over again).

Otherwise no frigging chance. (Yes, the two cases are realistic, but not probable enough for me to willing to lighten up my position or do anything else.)

chessnut

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I have talked to him personally on chat. not very convincing in his reasoning, although his count is valid. A valid count is all you need to make money with EW, be it right or wrong, but there are better bullish counts that are equally if not more valid.

TERA

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Speaking of trendlines, there some EW trader who gave a 3 hour lecture on youtube about how all of the trendlines are going to break due to EW and they all have to retrace. Even that lower line, the one I'm following, he thinks is going to break. What do you think.

aepfel

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1 BTC = 1000 mBTC
1 mBTC = 1000 µBTC (or mybe the new phrase "bits")
1 µBTC = 100 Satoshi

1 Satoshi = 0.01 µBTC
1 µBTC = 0.001 mBTC
1 mBTC = 0.001 BTC

The BTC-symbol can be found 2 buttons above this Sad

emote.

pinksheep

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Thanks jmw74

jmw74

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m = milli. 1/1000.

There is a button for BTC in the toolbar when composing your message.

pinksheep

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rPietila, you say $3-12mB (I don't have the bitcoin symbol). Forgive my ignorance; I know that an mB is a fraction of a BTC but can't remember how much. Can you enlighten me?

rpietila

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Quote from: windjc on April 28, 2014, 05:55:53 AM

Quote from: rpietila on April 28, 2014, 05:51:27 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 28, 2014, 04:24:38 AM

Quote from: rpietila on April 28, 2014, 04:21:37 AM

many readers don't understand the whole concept and go out screaming "rpietila was wrong" every time I say anything, no matter what probability is attached.

The vultures love having someone to blame. they crave it. they also crave promises. and free lunch.

A logical proposition of "something is true with 100% certainty" does not have any practical meaning in the realm of probabilities, because to say it would entail attaching infinitely long bounds or infinitesimally short timeframe to it.

- I can say with 100% certainty that Bitcoin price in USD is between 0 and infinity at any point forward.
- I can say with 100% certainty that at the moment of observing, it is between 400 and 500.
- I can say with 99% certainty, that it will not crash to 100 or rise to 1000 in the following 24 hours (average price of that time), and anyone can call me by offering better odds than the prediction, eg. 50:1. Still there would be practical reasons not to take the bet, eg. overhead, taxes or regulations. That's why I'd like to bet such that I win a lot with small P and lose a little with high P

Yeah, so wouldn't everybody. But unless you are just going to con someone who is an idiot, if you are going to enter a bet, you have to be willing to take appropriate risks. A bet is inherently risky. That's why bets are not made for "profit," they are made for excitement and memories. Sure, just like in poker, with skill and research you can better your odds. But there is still risk.

In this case, I wanted somebody to bet with me on my terms.
You wanted me to bet with you on your terms.

Nobody accepted.

I get all the blame.

You are not successful enough, bro. Nobody hates you.

Your terms were fair in general, but not the type of bet I was interested in. (The carry risk for me is (k *capital * time), and for a bet likely resulting in a wash, it would turn it -EV for both.)

windjc

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Quote from: rpietila on April 28, 2014, 05:51:27 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 28, 2014, 04:24:38 AM

Quote from: rpietila on April 28, 2014, 04:21:37 AM

many readers don't understand the whole concept and go out screaming "rpietila was wrong" every time I say anything, no matter what probability is attached.

The vultures love having someone to blame. they crave it. they also crave promises. and free lunch.

A logical proposition of "something is true with 100% certainty" does not have any practical meaning in the realm of probabilities, because to say it would entail attaching infinitely long bounds or infinitesimally short timeframe to it.

- I can say with 100% certainty that Bitcoin price in USD is between 0 and infinity at any point forward.
- I can say with 100% certainty that at the moment of observing, it is between 400 and 500.
- I can say with 99% certainty, that it will not crash to 100 or rise to 1000 in the following 24 hours (average price of that time), and anyone can call me by offering better odds than the prediction, eg. 50:1. Still there would be practical reasons not to take the bet, eg. overhead, taxes or regulations. That's why I'd like to bet such that I win a lot with small P and lose a little with high P

Yeah, so wouldn't everybody. But unless you are just going to con someone who is an idiot, if you are going to enter a bet, you have to be willing to take appropriate risks. A bet is inherently risky. That's why bets are not made for "profit," they are made for excitement and memories. Sure, just like in poker, with skill and research you can better your odds. But there is still risk.

rpietila

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Quote from: chessnut on April 28, 2014, 04:24:38 AM

Quote from: rpietila on April 28, 2014, 04:21:37 AM

many readers don't understand the whole concept and go out screaming "rpietila was wrong" every time I say anything, no matter what probability is attached.

The vultures love having someone to blame. they crave it. they also crave promises. and free lunch.

A logical proposition of "something is true with 100% certainty" does not have any practical meaning in the realm of probabilities, because to say it would entail attaching infinitely long bounds or infinitesimally short timeframe to it.

- I can say with 100% certainty that Bitcoin price in USD is between 0 and infinity at any point forward.
- I can say with 100% certainty that at the moment of observing, it is between 400 and 500.
- I can say with 99% certainty, that it will not crash to 100 or rise to 1000 in the following 24 hours (average price of that time), and anyone can call me by offering better odds than the prediction, eg. 50:1. Still there would be practical reasons not to take the bet, eg. overhead, taxes or regulations. That's why I'd like to bet such that I win a lot with small P and lose a little with high P

chessnut

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Quote from: rpietila on April 28, 2014, 04:21:37 AM

many readers don't understand the whole concept and go out screaming "rpietila was wrong" every time I say anything, no matter what probability is attached.

The vultures love having someone to blame. they crave it. they also crave promises. and free lunch.

rpietila

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Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: wobber on April 28, 2014, 04:10:13 AM

Quote from: rpietila on April 28, 2014, 04:07:11 AM

Quote from: pinksheep on April 26, 2014, 05:53:09 PM

rpietila, when you say you expect the price to multiply 10 fold this year, which price do you start from? - do you mean the lowest price of the year, circa 350 I think it was.

The exponential trend at the close of the year points to about $3-$12 per mBTC.

We're pretty running out of time. As months pass we get less and less chances to go higher. For me, it seem price makes lower highs, and lower lows... Bearish for the next 6 months at least (which goes to end of 2014)

2010, 2013 were stellar years.
2011 quite good
2012 decent
2009 price did not go up, but if you mined coins, you were hardly disappointed.

The years are different. After closing 2013 above the trend, we might close 2014 below the trend. But even then I'd suggest $3000 and a new ATH. On the other hand, after 2010-11 megabubble (6400x increase in price), the hangover lasted for 20 months, so it is not entirely ruled out, because some claim that Bitcoin's growth is slowing.

That is why it is so interesting. I refrain from making any percentage predictions for now, because many readers don't understand the whole concept and go out screaming "rpietila was wrong" every time I say anything, no matter what probability is attached.

And here is the UPDATED 2014 prediction contest, which REALLY determines who can predict and who is just breathing hot air.

wobber

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Quote from: rpietila on April 28, 2014, 04:07:11 AM

Quote from: pinksheep on April 26, 2014, 05:53:09 PM

rpietila, when you say you expect the price to multiply 10 fold this year, which price do you start from? - do you mean the lowest price of the year, circa 350 I think it was.

The exponential trend at the close of the year points to about $3-$12 per mBTC.

We're pretty running out of time. As months pass we get less and less chances to go higher. For me, it seem price makes lower highs, and lower lows... Bearish for the next 6 months at least (which goes to end of 2014)

Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 214. (Read 907212 times)