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Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 220. (Read 907212 times)

BitchicksHusband

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Quote from: rpietila on April 22, 2014, 05:44:30 AM

Quote from: windjc on April 22, 2014, 04:31:57 AM

The longer the market contracts here the more bearish it becomes.

I beg to disagree, based on the fundamentals:
- A revolutionary innovation with a logistic adoption curve
- Total number of coins is constant
- Every halving of price means that new fiat entering the market scoops double the amount coins

The only thing supporting your assertion imo is that a longer decline prompts people to sell more, which holds true with some, but their share of total coins is quite small (after this long a decline at least Cheesy

)

Bitcoin's utility is not affected by a further decline towards 250, which is the reason that it is not in the cards. Only a vicious circle in utility would cause a spiralling towards zero, but we have ample evidence from 2011-2013 that utility grows constantly, reversing the downtrend when it's time. Price fluctuation just gives better entry and exit points.

It is very much possible that we have to wait 3-6 months for the new fiat though. Then we will have so many people telling afterwards: "I wish I had bought at $500 but it seemed to be going nowhere.. Embarrassed

This is exactly what Bitchick and I said after it hovered around $70-$140 for 5 months after April 2013. We ended up buying a lot at $200-$300 before the run up to $1200. We really wish now that we had taken advantage of the long sideways, but we didn't. We waited until the rocket ride started and panic bought a little.

With all these newbs on the boards right now, I'm expecting the same thing once it starts going up. They have all kinds of theories right now, but once it starts rising, they'll all panic buy all the way up.

(This time, I was able to buy some pretty much every $30 from $550 all the way down to $350. Thanks, Risto.)

rudius

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Quote from: Hpotsirc on April 22, 2014, 06:26:55 AM

Quote from: rpietila on April 22, 2014, 05:55:25 AM

Quick TA update (at $0.495):
- 6H candle color/volume: not much volume during Easter holidays, conclusion: none
- Bid/ask strengh at market (Bitstamp): slippage to sell 5k: $0.047, slippage to buy: $0.053, conclusion: bids have built up since last time
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.336 log units. The trendline is at $1.073 and rising $0.007 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (note: it is not necessary that 'rock bottom' will change until the parabolic uptrend starts, because the trendline is itself rising)
- Sentiment: n/a
- Prognosis: shortest term unsecure, mid-term reversal seems confirmed, long-term buy zone

Thinking in mBTC already i really like that attitude Cheesy

Anyway even though i don't have much to contribute to this thread i just wanted to drop by and say that i really appreciate the effort that is being made here. After being in Crypto-Universe for 6 months now I'm still a total noob and this thread is really helpful - so thank you

I want to second that !

A big thank.

Hpotsirc

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Quote from: rpietila on April 22, 2014, 05:55:25 AM

Thinking in mBTC already i really like that attitude Cheesy

rpietila

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Welcome back!

Quote from: AnonyMint on April 22, 2014, 05:52:09 AM

The price hit the $300 - $350 target I wrote about upthread.

Well put. How much did you buy? I bought BTC200 at $400 so I'm 20k ahead now, 11 days later.

You think it will go to $400 anymore? I don't.

Quote from: rpietila on April 22, 2014, 05:44:30 AM

- Total number of coins is constant

Fantasy. Once Peter Thiel has completed the takeover of Bitcoin, there will not be any such limit. Also the altcoins are and will (even more so) increase the supply.

I would not give 100% probability to such event, however.

Quote from: rpietila on April 22, 2014, 05:44:30 AM

- Every halving of price means that new fiat entering the market scoops double the amount coins

The only thing supporting your assertion imo is that a longer decline prompts people to sell more, which holds true with some, but their share of total coins is quite small (after this long a decline at least Cheesy

)

The price will go higher eventually. No one in their right mind could argue otherwise.

The issue is how much higher, and at what rate.

And also the issue is Bitcoin is the fucked up result that enslaves mankind, not the liberation coin, but I know that doesn't matter to you.

But what might eventually cause you to realize you screwed up, is when you realize Bitcoin can't do micro payments but a competitor can.

I appreciate your opinions. As for micropayments, I am waiting for alternatives, but also don't believe that such system will destroy Bitcoin, similarly as coins have not replaced bank wires.

Quote

The utility is very very limited and will only be improved because Peter Thiel will turn it into a fiat system.

The utility is growing constantly - every quarter it has more utility than the previous one. So the userbase is dragged along, and the price. When the price overshoots, it will put the utility projects in the pipeline and the whole economy just marches on. This is what I am observing.

rpietila

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AnonyMint

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The price hit the $300 - $350 target I wrote about upthread.

Quote from: rpietila on April 22, 2014, 05:44:30 AM

Quote from: windjc on April 22, 2014, 04:31:57 AM

The longer the market contracts here the more bearish it becomes.

I beg to disagree, based on the fundamentals:
- A revolutionary innovation with a logistic adoption curve

Log-logistic as I showed upthread. Big difference.

And I am no longer talking hypothetical. I speak from a standpoint of knowing what is going on behind the scenes that will soon hit you.

Quote from: rpietila on April 22, 2014, 05:44:30 AM

- Total number of coins is constant

Fantasy. Once Peter Thiel has completed the takeover of Bitcoin, there will not be any such limit. Also the altcoins are and will (even more so) increase the supply.

Quote from: rpietila on April 22, 2014, 05:44:30 AM

)

Quote from: rpietila on April 22, 2014, 05:44:30 AM

Bitcoin's utility...

The utility is very very limited and will only be improved because Peter Thiel will turn it into a fiat system.

rpietila

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Quote from: windjc on April 22, 2014, 04:31:57 AM

The longer the market contracts here the more bearish it becomes.

windjc

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Quote from: Todorius on April 22, 2014, 04:25:10 AM

On Huobi, this does look slightly more optimistic. Indeed, since Bitstamp is following Huobis every step it seems, I'd put more relevance to this chart:

As you can see, in logarithmic scale, the descending trendline from the 8000CNY bubble pop in December, has already been broken.
We are above that trendline now, since a week or so.
Also, the 3d MACD has crossed on Huobi, which is quite a strong signal I'd say. This is the first real chance for trend reversal.

Yes, there is a chance here for bulls. However, without fresh fiat coming to the exchanges, which hasn't happened in months, the bulls stand no chance. Will that happen? That is the question. The longer the market contracts here the more bearish it becomes.

Todorius

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On Huobi, this does look slightly more optimistic. Indeed, since Bitstamp is following Huobis every step it seems, I'd put more relevance to this chart:

infognom

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Quote

Here is a redraw of the upper resistance line using the built in line tool on BitcoinWisdom. For a chartist, the trend is rather scary unless one makes the presumption that I did . . . April 10 at $340 was the bottom of the bubble collapse.

At least it looks a lot mory scary, if you choose the logarithmic scale ;-)

SlipperySlope

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Stephen Reed

Quote from: infognom on April 21, 2014, 04:30:25 PM

Quote from: SlipperySlope on April 21, 2014, 03:25:05 PM

Price action is still near the upper resistance trendline - which goes back to the November 2013 peak

Trying to draw the very exact same trendline and i'm struggling, not sure which data you took exactly. I think there are a couple of possible potential lines to draw and you somehow took the most pessimistic one, aren't you? With that i mean the one which is most difficult to break.

The most pessimistic one i could draw was (on 6h chart) 2013-11-30 -> $1163 + 2014-01-06 -> 995. In both cases the top of candle (highest price).

Well that has at least the advantage that it crosses the 16th april candle between high and entry-price at about $544 (little bit more pessimistic than yours) and so it would be more or less ideal for our purpose of a clear trend-reversal-signal ... am i right?!

Any additional thoughts about which points to take in which cases?

infognom

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Quote from: SlipperySlope on April 21, 2014, 03:25:05 PM

Price action is still near the upper resistance trendline - which goes back to the November 2013 peak

SlipperySlope

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Stephen Reed

Price action is still near the upper resistance trendline - which goes back to the November 2013 peak. I drew a lower trendline, with much weaker confidence, to illustrate the what I believe is the convergence of trader sentiment regarding fair value. If the lower trendline were accurate and indeed holds, then prices escape from the trendline within nine days. Upwards, or sideways, I reason because the bottom of the November 2013 bubble collapse was at 340 on April 10 - so I think.

Here is the 6-hour chart . . .

bitcoinsrus

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Quote from: pinksheep on April 21, 2014, 11:25:11 AM

i'm not building a bot, wouldn't have a clue about that, i'm a long-term holder, just wondering if i should buy more now.

Well, use your own instinct. When it was 800, I asked if I should buy and most said yes. One guy said no. All I am saying is would you rather buy now risking that it may go lower. Or would you rather play it safe and buy on an uptrend (where it is going up and basically you feel safer but feel kinda bad for not buying when it was 500).

My advice is to do what you think is fair. Like some other guy mentioned. It seems better to buy at least 50% lower of last ATH (1200)

And, do you think 500 is fair for the utility and potential btc provides? Do the math. If you had like 3k to invest and you buy now, thats like 6 btc

If it goes to 450 that is 6.66 (the mark of the beast Sad

)
if it goes to 550 then that is 5.5454)

so 6 now or potentially .66 more if it goes a little down
or losing like <.5 if it goes up

pinksheep

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i'm not building a bot, wouldn't have a clue about that, i'm a long-term holder, just wondering if i should buy more now.

SlipperySlope

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Stephen Reed

Quote from: pinksheep on April 21, 2014, 06:49:48 AM

so it's still a buy until it hits 525?

I am not a short term trader and would not offer any signals. Rather, I am like a farmer in drought stricken Central Texas. I do not make decisions based upon whether it is predicted to rain next week. Rather I track precipitation as it happens, and monitor the increasing probability of an El Nino event that may break our drought this summer.

Log10 regression trendlines maintained by myself and others indicate that the current price is well below the long term trend. Accordingly, this is a good time to postpone spending bitcoin. For example, I plan to triple the capacity of my GPU mining rigs that I lease for bitcoin. The chart tells me to wait a few months and buy 10x more GPU cards for the same coin. The chart tells me to stuff every spare $20 bill into my neighborhood Robocoin ATM - which I will do again in a few hours.

Its almost always a good time to buy Bitcoin. The time not to buy bitcoin begins shortly after the next all-time-high and extends until after prices have collapsed at least 50% from the peak. Simple rules.

If you are building a trading bot for a no-fee exchange, then I recommend the typical volume-weighted return to mean algorithm such as described here . . .

Competitive Algorithms for VWAP and Limit Order Trading.

You need to be an unemotional software bot when you are snatching dimes from in front of a steamroller, as American traders sometimes say.

BitchicksHusband

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Quote from: Siegfried on April 20, 2014, 09:56:54 PM

Quote from: Peter R on April 20, 2014, 02:20:08 PM

Quote from: aminorex on April 20, 2014, 01:53:08 PM

Quote from: Peter R on April 20, 2014, 12:02:28 AM

On the one hand, if no one sells, the coin distribution will never become diffuse enough to be considered legitimate.

The powers of the FRB would render USD illegitimate by a similar argument. I don't ike to see the diffusion argument applied without making it limits clear. Currency distribution always follows a power law. Distribution can occur in many ways, but the main way it occurs is by trade in goods and services, which is the best and healthiest way.

Quote

But on the other hand, if no one buys, then the entire experiment collapses.

True, but that buying need not be in fiat. I may buy with goods or services. I would rather see liquidity in that market than in the exchange market, although both are good.

Thank Aminorex. I agree that what you wrote is more accurate (and more powerful) than what I wrote. Like you implied, the growing perception that bitcoin is legitimate so that people accept it in return for their goods and services becomes an efficient coin-distribution mechanism (further legitimizing bitcoin).

By this logic, it would be beneficial to the bitcoin economy if we could slowly move more of our work into bitcoin space. Perhaps this could be a killer-app for bitcoin: some sort of "work pools" for small tasks that a bright young computer programmer from Nepal (or anywhere) could participate in. I can often break my projects down into small, well-defined tasks. I'd rather pay someone 200 mBTC for creating and testing a few C++ functions, than write them myself. And since the average yearly income in Nepal is $182.46, this could create a lot of demand for self-education, empowering people in the process.

Yes, this is the key. At the present time the buyers and sellers of labor for BTC are too few, but in the next few years this will change and a snowball effect will occur. BTC users now can start to help that process along by insisting on giving tips to people in BTC, even if they are not interested at first. If you hire someone to do landscaping work, pay the full price in dollars, but then offer to give a 10 dollar tip in BTC. It is likely that the person will take two minutes to download a wallet app to accept the tip, and then you have helped increase the distribution and user base of Bitcoin.

In the US, you can just send your tip in Coinbase to his e-mail and he has to sign up to claim it or it gets returned to you.

pinksheep

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so it's still a buy until it hits 525?

SlipperySlope

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Stephen Reed

Quote from: Siegfried on April 20, 2014, 10:37:31 PM

So the theory says, when it crosses that trend line, it will explode upward?

Yes, that is it - to the extent that technical analysis is a theory. Not a certainty of course, but often observed when the price movement has great momentum. Furthermore, it could simply move sideways to break through, but for those of us biased to expect a new bubble this summer, then a pop upwards would reinforce our confidence.

Siegfried

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Quote from: SlipperySlope on April 20, 2014, 10:25:12 PM

Edging ever closer to the November 2013 bubble collapse resistance trend line. The drama continues as illustrated on the 1-hour resolution Bitstamp chart. China leads the way, with no-fee trading on Huobi yielding 8x more volume upwards . . .

So the theory says, when it crosses that trend line, it will explode upward?