The longer the market contracts here the more bearish it becomes.
I beg to disagree, based on the fundamentals:
- A revolutionary innovation with a logistic adoption curve
- Total number of coins is constant
- Every halving of price means that new fiat entering the market scoops double the amount coins
The only thing supporting your assertion imo is that a longer decline prompts people to sell more, which holds true with some, but their share of total coins is quite small (after this long a decline at least
)Bitcoin's utility is not affected by a further decline towards 250, which is the reason that it is not in the cards. Only a vicious circle in utility would cause a spiralling towards zero, but we have ample evidence from 2011-2013 that utility grows constantly, reversing the downtrend when it's time. Price fluctuation just gives better entry and exit points.
It is very much possible that we have to wait 3-6 months for the new fiat though. Then we will have so many people telling afterwards: "I wish I had bought at $500 but it seemed to be going nowhere..
"This is exactly what Bitchick and I said after it hovered around $70-$140 for 5 months after April 2013. We ended up buying a lot at $200-$300 before the run up to $1200. We really wish now that we had taken advantage of the long sideways, but we didn't. We waited until the rocket ride started and panic bought a little.
With all these newbs on the boards right now, I'm expecting the same thing once it starts going up. They have all kinds of theories right now, but once it starts rising, they'll all panic buy all the way up.
(This time, I was able to buy some pretty much every $30 from $550 all the way down to $350. Thanks, Risto.)
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