16 probability predictions take part in this first preliminary round.
The geometric average probability densities for selected numbers:
$3000 = 0.0003%
$1500 = 0.0012%
$1000 = 0.0034%
$700 = 0.0653%
$600 = 0.1404%
$500 = 0.0993%
$400 = 0.0561%
$300 = 0.0087%
$200 = 0.0015%.
(for example, $700 means here that the price in 2014-5-17 is in the range of $699.50-$700.49).
Interesting how there is very little hopes for $1000; going back to 400 is regarded as 15 times more probable, $300 is almost 3 times as probable and even $200 is nearly half as probable.
Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 223. (Read 907229 times)
Quick TA update (at $500):
- 6H candle color/volume: tall candles have again turned red, conclusion: immediate trend is down-ish
- Bid/ask strengh at market (Bitstamp): slippage to sell 5k: $70, slippage to buy: $55, conclusion: downside volatility risk
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.328 log units. The trendline is at $1,043 and rising $7 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (note: it is not necessary that 'rock bottom' will change until the parabolic uptrend starts, because the trendline is itself rising)
- Sentiment: n/a
- Prognosis: shortest term unsecure, mid-term reversal seems confirmed, long-term buy zone
- 6H candle color/volume: tall candles have again turned red, conclusion: immediate trend is down-ish
- Bid/ask strengh at market (Bitstamp): slippage to sell 5k: $70, slippage to buy: $55, conclusion: downside volatility risk
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.328 log units. The trendline is at $1,043 and rising $7 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (note: it is not necessary that 'rock bottom' will change until the parabolic uptrend starts, because the trendline is itself rising)
- Sentiment: n/a
- Prognosis: shortest term unsecure, mid-term reversal seems confirmed, long-term buy zone
Here is the same rally as viewed from Huobi, where zero-fee trading yields much more volume and liquidity. The smooth, monotonically ascending rally on this 3-minute chart, is evidence I think of a whale sized buy order being executed by a bot or manually in portions while waiting for asks to fill in. The large total order gets filled with less slippage given the timely arrival of new sellers.
If a single large order did propel this impulse, then prices should begin a damped oscillation centered about 484 on Bitstamp. Alternatively, momentum traders could jump on board this short term rally.
If a single large order did propel this impulse, then prices should begin a damped oscillation centered about 484 on Bitstamp. Alternatively, momentum traders could jump on board this short term rally.
The upper resistance line goes all the way back to the November peak and that is the one with drama. The lower resistance line which has already been pierced, only goes back to April 16.
Here is my bet:
50000-100000 0.05%
15000-49999.99 0.10%
4000-14999.99 2.00%
1161-3999.99 19.00%
800-1160.99 25.00%
450-799.99 33.00%
331-449.99 7.50%
256-330.99 13.00%
33-255.99 0.34%
0-32.99 0.01%
Volatility is a given with Bitcoin hence the two peaks.
50000-100000 0.05%
15000-49999.99 0.10%
4000-14999.99 2.00%
1161-3999.99 19.00%
800-1160.99 25.00%
450-799.99 33.00%
331-449.99 7.50%
256-330.99 13.00%
33-255.99 0.34%
0-32.99 0.01%
Volatility is a given with Bitcoin hence the two peaks.
In this 12-hour Bitstamp chart, I moved the support trend line down to $470, which does not change my biased expectation of a sideways or upside breakout through the long term resistance trend line - within 30 days.
If you put it at 400, you will not have to update it so frequently
882-100,000; .5%
776-881; 40%
701-775; 50%
641-700; 6%
562-640; 3%
0-561; .5%
776-881; 40%
701-775; 50%
641-700; 6%
562-640; 3%
0-561; .5%
What's up with those predictions? Is there a game in here? 
It's called "Who can make the most money?"
What's up with those predictions? Is there a game in here?
In this 12-hour Bitstamp chart, I moved the support trend line down to $470, which does not change my biased expectation of a sideways or upside breakout through the long term resistance trend line - within 30 days.
. . . Not many are in real life prepared for $100k per bitcoin this year, even though it is possible. It may ruin many people's life more than bitcoin going to zero.
Ha. Our log trend models predict an average price of $100k per bitcoin in about 18 months. What difference does 12 months make when it comes to ruining people's lives?
100K ruining people's lives? (now or in 18 months which really is not that much longer) Is the thinking that it will be like those that win the lottery and are not in the position to handle such wealth so quickly?
http://www.complex.com/pop-culture/2009/07/curse-of-the-lotto-how-the-millions-can-ruin-lives
The gravest danger from sudden wealth, e.g. 1000x your current net worth, is how unprepared one could be with regard to the safety of the household and loved ones. We take for granted the enormous amount of security provided by simple anonymity when living in a developed country with an average amount of cash.
Here in Austin however, we have a world famous billionaire Michael Dell. From a distance I have seen a couple of his estates which are patrolled by private, armed guards. There is no way that Mr. Dell or his family could enjoy the sights and street life like I can. So much of what I enjoy about life would be interrupted if everyone stared at me in public, or my bodyguards, or my armored car.
What of all the beggars and solicitors that would seek my attention?
I need great wealth to fund greater goals and am old enough that the majority of my happy ordinary life is behind me. If I must move away from my less-than-secure but lovely and loving neighborhood to a compound, so be it, and live with guards, so be it. But I know that my dear wife will never be as happy and will blame me for the rest of my life when she fully realizes what I have done by simply holding on to bitcoin.
One of the top NHL players used to live near me. He would go to events with my neighbor 2 doors down, who lives in a 1500 sq ft house. I saw this player at a nearby mall leaving with his wife and kids. I said, "Hi" and asked him if anyone recognized him. He said I was the first one all day.
It is well-known that he made $8 million that year and had no particular security and wanders around in public anonymously. I think you may be overestimating the problem.
Wow well nhl players dont really get the attention they deserve.. in the states ncaa will get played over stanley cup finals.. a shame because there is no sport that can compare to the challenge of winning the stanley cup.. Here in Canada im sure he wouldnt walk around like that.
I also met Wayne Gretzky at his restaurant in Toronto when he was with the Kings (so, the height of his popularity). He only had his brother and his agent with him, but no security.
Here is my bet for 17th may 2014:
3001-1000000: 0.1%
2801-3000: 3.9%
1401-2800; 45.0%
451-1400: 15.0%
350-450: 30.0%
251-350: 5.0%
0-250: 1.0%
3001-1000000: 0.1%
2801-3000: 3.9%
1401-2800; 45.0%
451-1400: 15.0%
350-450: 30.0%
251-350: 5.0%
0-250: 1.0%
Please move this predictions to another thread
10000-100000; 0.1%
2000-10000; 0.9%
1500-2000; 1%
1300-1500; 2%
1100-1300; 3%
1000-1100; 4%
900-1000; 5%
800-900; 6%
700-800; 7%
600-700; 8%
500-600; 19%
400-500; 25%
250-400; 15%
0-250; 4%
Please move this predictions to another thread
Predicting where the price is 2014-5-17 (30 days from now) volume weighted average Bitstamp price:
Price in USD range; probability
900-100000; 1.0%
800-899; 2.0%
751-799; 5.0%
709-750; 6.0%
688-708; 6.0%
651-687; 17.0%
621-650; 16.0%
589-620; 14.0%
501-588; 10.0%
431-500; 9.0%
401-430; 7.0%
381-400; 4.0%
331-380; 2.0%
0-330; 1.0%
Price in USD range; probability
900-100000; 1.0%
800-899; 2.0%
751-799; 5.0%
709-750; 6.0%
688-708; 6.0%
651-687; 17.0%
621-650; 16.0%
589-620; 14.0%
501-588; 10.0%
431-500; 9.0%
401-430; 7.0%
381-400; 4.0%
331-380; 2.0%
0-330; 1.0%
10000-100000; 0.1%
2000-10000; 0.9%
1500-2000; 2%
1300-1500; 3%
1100-1300; 10%
1000-1100; 12%
900-1000; 14%
800-900; 20%
700-800; 14%
600-700; 10%
500-600; 8%
400-500; 4%
250-400; 1.9%
0-250; 0.1%
2000-10000; 0.9%
1500-2000; 2%
1300-1500; 3%
1100-1300; 10%
1000-1100; 12%
900-1000; 14%
800-900; 20%
700-800; 14%
600-700; 10%
500-600; 8%
400-500; 4%
250-400; 1.9%
0-250; 0.1%
Here I come!
4466-100000; 0.5%
2818-4465; 1%
1778-2817; 1%
1413-1777; 2%
1122-1412; 8%
1000-1121; 10%
891-999; 25%
794-890; 25%
708-793; 10%
631-707; 6%
562-630; 2%
501-561; 2%
447-500; 2%
398-446; 2%
355-397; 1%
316-354; 1%
251-315; 1%
0-250; 0.5%
4466-100000; 0.5%
2818-4465; 1%
1778-2817; 1%
1413-1777; 2%
1122-1412; 8%
1000-1121; 10%
891-999; 25%
794-890; 25%
708-793; 10%
631-707; 6%
562-630; 2%
501-561; 2%
447-500; 2%
398-446; 2%
355-397; 1%
316-354; 1%
251-315; 1%
0-250; 0.5%
4466-100000; 0,1%
2818-4465; 0,1%
1778-2817; 0,5%
1413-1777; 1%
1122-1412; 2%
1000-1121; 2%
891-999; 3%
794-890; 10%
708-793; 12%
631-707; 16%
562-630; 20,2%
501-561; 10%
447-500; 10%
398-446; 5%
355-397; 3%
316-354; 3%
251-315; 2%
0-250; 0,1%
2818-4465; 0,1%
1778-2817; 0,5%
1413-1777; 1%
1122-1412; 2%
1000-1121; 2%
891-999; 3%
794-890; 10%
708-793; 12%
631-707; 16%
562-630; 20,2%
501-561; 10%
447-500; 10%
398-446; 5%
355-397; 3%
316-354; 3%
251-315; 2%
0-250; 0,1%
in 30 days? I'm short term bear, reckon there might be one last downward move. I don't know if it we'll ever test the 266 but if we did that would be one hell of a springboard.
20000-999999 0%
10000-19999 1%
5000-9999 1%
2000-4999 3%
1000-1999 5%
600-999 10%
500-599 25%
400-499 30%
250-399 20%
100-249 5%
0-99 0%
20000-999999 0%
10000-19999 1%
5000-9999 1%
2000-4999 3%
1000-1999 5%
600-999 10%
500-599 25%
400-499 30%
250-399 20%
100-249 5%
0-99 0%
10001-100000; 0.001%
5000-10000; 0.01%
2000-4999; 0.1%
1000-1999; 0.199%
900-999; 0.5%
800-899; 1.29%
700-799; 2%
650-699; 7.5%
601-649; 14.0%
560-600; 15.0%
500-559; 25.5%
481-499; 17.0%
441-480; 8.0%
420-440; 5.5%
380-419; 2.0%
251-379; 0.9%
0-250; 0.5%
5000-10000; 0.01%
2000-4999; 0.1%
1000-1999; 0.199%
900-999; 0.5%
800-899; 1.29%
700-799; 2%
650-699; 7.5%
601-649; 14.0%
560-600; 15.0%
500-559; 25.5%
481-499; 17.0%
441-480; 8.0%
420-440; 5.5%
380-419; 2.0%
251-379; 0.9%
0-250; 0.5%
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