Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 219. (Read 907212 times)

Here is the Number of transactions excluding popular addresses chart from blockchain.info, which has duration of 180 days on a Log10 chart with a 7-day moving average to smooth out the day-of-week variation. Note that the rightmost data points suggest a trend upwards and yet the price chart does trend upwards yet with that strength.

Interesting . . .

It seems to be similar. For myself and siblings, we sleep first and the lucid part of the dream happens maybe after an ordinary dream. For me, its the flying part where I swim through the air. I say to myself "there is gravity, I should be falling" but I feel the viscous air as my hands pull through it like water, something tells me then that I am dreaming but I never use the concept dreaming - rather the concept is control. I do not want to wake up at that point because it is so much fun. My lucid dreams do not allow me the freedom of script afforded by a daydream. I am mostly an observer of scenes that associate from one to the other. I can somewhat control and especially enjoy what my character does but there is very little control over and often surprise at what scene comes next.

Another aspect of my dreams is my second life. This was much more pronounced when I was younger, but I would have distinct memory from previous dreams - a continuing story so to speak. This helped control the lucid dream because I had explored a building before and knew that it had stairs for example.

I have fair recall of dreams and I have never dreamed about technical analysis or charts. Ha.

I don't know if it's the same thing but I was able to remain conscious while falling asleep and therefore be aware of my dreams as if I was awake.  After a couple of nights of this I had to stop because it wasn't very restful.  After I did this I found out Richard Feynman did the same thing when he was young with the same results.  There is a reason we lose consciousness.  That our conscious mind thinks it's in control of things is merely illusion/delusion.

It appears that folks here should learn to control their night dreams . . .

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-to-control-dreams/

My siblings and I are lucid dreamers from childhood. One of the tricks is to recognize that you are in a dream and what the constraints are. For example, in a lucid dream I launch myself into the air because I can swim in it. I know I can so I attempt it. Likewise, I can perform any physical exercise in a lucid dream without tiring.

My mind cannot invent text as fast as I can read it, so I know to avoid trying to read a sign or book in a lucid dream. If something goes wrong, or is otherwise annoying, in a lucid dream I know that I have control and have touchstone places and events that I can return to - as a way of resetting.

My brothers and I dream in color with surrealistic sounds, smells and so forth. In school I read a psychology of hypnotism textbook and learned that people like me are easily hypnotized. One of my younger brothers sleepwalked as a child and it was my responsibility to keep him away from the stairs and make sure he really knew  where the toilet was. I could control him, with his eyes wide open as he moved around, by gentle voice command.

Such memories. But I far prefer daydreams.

Kind of reminds me of the opening day of Feathercoin on btc-e where I lost 25% of my stash.

I have also had dreams where the price of Bitcoin is in the single digits. It feels terrible. I also have dreams where the price is five or six digits. Those are always daydreams.

lol nice dream

What are the number of bitcoins on the exchanges currently, was it something like only 5% (or less) of total bitcoins? That is roughly 500,000 bitcoins.
Not sure how exactly to work out the math as it not linear and new coins would be moved to the exchanges to meet demand, cash out, etc., but it is
safe to say, the move would be beyond violent. It would be a reflection, on a larger scale, of what we saw happen when BTC went from cents to dollars imo.

Just think of one public company and how many shares it has (a few million). Now say instead of there being thousands of companies, each with millions of shares, there is rather a handful (BTC and some "subsidiaries" in LTC, etc. LOL) A move of large amounts of fiat to Crypo's, at this point in time, just seems too early but it appears as though it is going to happen. I get the feeling the infrastructure is being built out, partly, by the same big money that wants to get in. They have to have a foundation first and till then they will buy "off line".

Risto - Regarding your dream. I've done dream analysis for years and love the Jungian method of interpretation where your dream is actually representing other parts of yourself. (If memory serves me correct, thought I might be a bit off.) So, your alt coin is actually just another part of yourself. However you see alt coins (e.g. - Immature but with potential, not quite yet ready, making their mark known, coming onto the scene, an alternative choice, etc.) can be applied to yourself. So, quite simply, if this type of interpretation is valid here, it might just simply mean these other parts of yourself (represented by the alt coins value) are taking a bit of a back seat and shrinking. Just throw your feelings of alts and try to personalize them in this regard. Is quite interesting and I have found valid. To complete the picture you would have to see where you were in the hours/days prior to the dream as some message is trying to be communicated through the subconscious. Of course, it could just be about alts... 

IAS

LOL, I recently had the opposite dream with bitcoin:
 
======
The price starts to plummet, $400, $300, $200, $100, ….

It is going down so fast that I panic for a second and think it might hit zero.

But then I remember that the value of a spot on the blockchain comes from our shared belief that the blockchain ledger is a legitimate record of account.  And I realize that this current rapid price drop is just the result of a few people who panicked and does not actually represent a change in the shared belief of the economic majority in our community. 

I but a bid wall at $10.00 for 1,000 coins.  It gets filled.  The price goes back up.
======

It seems to me the more people that believe that bitcoin is a store of value, the better store of value it becomes.  Bitcoin can thus have almost any value; it's actually value at any point in time is just the economically-weighted opinion of all the humans in the world. 

Sure that this was a dream and not watching the Blackcoin-Chart for the last 10 days? Except for the last part it matches almost exactly!

We have an ongoing price prediction contest in this thread. I was thinking to make an official version with prizes and such. Here it is, in a comment stage. Drop yours!

Huh, I had a bad dream last night. I had finally given a chance to an altcoin and was playing with about $30k stash. I saw it going for 55 (satoshi, I presume), and decided to buy. It jumped to 80, then came back. I thought it is going to the moon and bought several small lots at market. Then it briefly went to 23, but I was too slow to buy. Back at 50. Bought more. Back at 23. Then... whatth heck.. the price is suddenly dropping to 4!! Someone is dumping. Now I want out. But there is no one to buy. At the instant it goes back to 20ish, the dump starts again.

The idea of losing $20k in a matter of minutes is not very nice. This dream will keep me from buying alts 

The number of transactions excluding popular addresses chart as provided by Blockchain.info has recently been fixed, and now clearly shows a trend reversal that appears to support the notion that April 10 was the bottom of the November 2013  bubble collapse.

Bitcoin prices are presently in a dampened oscillation centered at about the present price $492.

What is also interesting is the question of how $880 billion pushed into bitcoin would affect its market cap. If it came in very quickly, there is probably a momentum-based 10X multiplier, so conceivably $880 billion could push the BTC price to half a million dollars (followed by a huge crash).  I think Risto estimated the equilibrium multiplier (i.e., the multiplier when money from new adopters comes in slowly) at 3.2X.  I'm hoping to study this question in more detail soon.

Source for numbers:
Cited in http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/06/CS%20wealth%207.jpg
article: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-02/its-1-world-who-owns-what-223-trillion-global-wealth
Actual source: Credit Suisse Global Wealth Databook 2012

I assume that the current wealth is a least 30% higher due to the stock market and RE boom in 2013-2014, but included 2012 numbers.

I like your optimism, but I'd be interested to see some citation for your figures. I am under the impression there are about half that many millionaires in the world, and I am intrigued that you were able to come up with their combined net worth. Also, thinking that every single one of them will invest in BTC is rather far fetched. But again, I love the optimism, and there are other scenarios, coupled with your idea that would make such a price feasible.

Regardless, I think we can agree that $494 is a good deal 

A simple argument for a minimal BTC price of $40-60K in the next 3-3.5 years follows:
The 30 million fiat millionaires capital is currently ~$88 trillion. If only 1% of this capital will be allocated to BTC (a minimal figure for argument's sake), it would constitute 880bil or ~$42000/BTC (at full 21 mil BTC). Family offices and advisors typically suggest allocating more than this to alternative investments, so I think that at least 1% is quite conservative. If the conversion occurs within the next 3 years, BTC will be at ~15-16 mil total coins mined, hence the price projection might be adjusted to $55000-58000/BTC under this scenario. A very good deal at the current $494  .

Here is yet another view of the resistance line on the Huobi 3-day resolution chart, in which I took care to anchor the line on the peak at 8000. In this rendition, it does appear that the breakout may be already happening, as was pointed out above by Todorius.

Here is the Huobi 3-day resolution chart, upon which I have drawn a resistance trendline from the peak of the November bubble using the built-in line tool offered by BitcoinWisdom. I admit that manual trendline drawing is subject to bias. I do not believe that this resistance has been broken, and it is only my growing confidence that April 10 was the bottom that I am paying such attention to a breakout.

On Reddit, an OKCoin representative mentioned that USD / BTC currency trading is coming to their exchange - someplace or somehow. Given what I hope is no-fee trading, then finally we may have a high volume, high liquidity, chart in USD prices. I hypothesize that USD volume would be higher than CNY volume if only there was no-fee trading and convenient USD recharge / withdrawal.

After a long time I updated the Distribution of bitcoins -chart in the respective thread.

Seems that there are only 400 Bitcoin millionaires left in the world after the price decline. How about if any fiat millionaires read this, the tickets to the party are now cheap! 

Also, nearly every Bitcoin holder is not only in the top 1% worldwide, but 0.01% (only 1 in 7,000 people in the world owns any bitcoins)!

Investing $5,000 to get 10 bitcoins, puts you in a comfortable 0.0015%.