rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 222.

SlipperySlope

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Stephen Reed

On this one-hour resolution Bitstamp chart, the upper resistance line originates at the November peak and has constrained all prior moves upwards during the bubble collapse. Assuming the bottom of the collapse is behind us, drama is building as the rally of the past 24 hours again approaches the resistance trendline.

Will it bounce back down, or bust through upwards? I will be peeking at the price indicator on my bedside phone this evening in the USA. A price above $530 would be very significant from a technical point of view.

The lower, short term resistance trendline I drew was pierced to get this part of the rally moving.

lumierre

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Quote from: Carlton Banks on April 19, 2014, 09:35:47 PM

Quote from: zimmah on April 19, 2014, 06:01:36 PM

June is most likely the month were crazy stuff will happen, but it may as well be july.

Is there an actual attributable cause for this 7-8 month growth/consolidation cycle? I recognise the pattern in the charts, but have not heard any reasoning for the period length in the discourse of analysis here on the forum. Plenty folks are reinforcing the notion that the pattern will continue, and I do understand that there will be some discernible growth cycle with distinct phases delineated as static->increase->correction->static->etc.

But why are the periods a regular amount of time? And why are they 7-8 months? I'm just wondering if there isn't some self-reinforcing observational logic going on here, that the expected continuation of that previous rhythm is what's actually creating it. And that the real "end of bitcoin" narrative will get exploited more effectively once this seemingly arbitrary pattern skips an iteration at some point.

Please feel free to correct my doubts if necessary, as I had also, up until now, been enjoying the contemplation of another price surge in June-July 2014!

Perhaps a one reason that might contribute to the time periods is human emotion itself. Humans aren't robots that don't get tired of doing something over and over again. A simple example is some News. When the same news is played over and over again on TV, paper, or internet, we get tired of it. The same is true for many things. Humans get tired of things whether learning something or working. However, we get interested on it again after awhile without hearing about it. And thus, the time period when we get tired of the same old news is consolidation while when we get interested again is the mania. I know all of us have experienced this. If we are emotionless robots, then I don't think we will have these bubbles.

SlipperySlope

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Stephen Reed

Quote from: Carlton Banks on April 19, 2014, 09:35:47 PM

Quote from: zimmah on April 19, 2014, 06:01:36 PM

June is most likely the month were crazy stuff will happen, but it may as well be july.

Is there an actual attributable cause for this 7-8 month growth/consolidation cycle? I recognise the pattern in the charts, but have not heard any reasoning for the period length in the discourse of analysis here on the forum. Plenty folks are reinforcing the notion that the pattern will continue, and I do understand that there will be some discernible growth cycle with distinct phases delineated as static->increase->correction->static->etc.

But why are the periods a regular amount of time? And why are they 7-8 months? I'm just wondering if there isn't some self-reinforcing observational logic going on here, that the expected continuation of that previous rhythm is what's actually creating it. And that the real "end of bitcoin" narrative will get exploited more effectively once this seemingly arbitrary pattern skips an iteration at some point.

Please feel free to correct my doubts if necessary, as I had also, up until now, been enjoying the contemplation of another price surge in June-July 2014!

I too, have given thought to the duration of bubble cycles. Rpietila explained the bitcoin adoption phenomena in a prior post, which I agree with . . .

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.6219380

I would add that traders and the not-yet-adopted public know about bubbles, and have come to expect them. We wait for the collapse to complete, for prices to begin rising again and then momentum builds the bubble mania. The duration between recent bubbles I think has to do with the flow of information and the resulting change of sentiment from bearish to bullish. Some number of months is required for new speculators to observe that Bitcoin has not yet failed, that transaction growth creates organic demand for coin, and the news stories reverse sentiment.

zimmah

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Quote from: Peter R on April 19, 2014, 09:48:05 PM

Quote from: Carlton Banks on April 19, 2014, 09:35:47 PM

Quote from: zimmah on April 19, 2014, 06:01:36 PM

June is most likely the month were crazy stuff will happen, but it may as well be july.

Is there an actual attributable cause for this 7-8 month growth/consolidation cycle? I recognise the pattern in the charts, but have not heard any reasoning for the period length in the discourse of analysis here on the forum. Plenty folks are reinforcing the notion that the pattern will continue, and I do understand that there will be some discernible growth cycle with distinct phases delineated as static->increase->correction->static->etc.

But why are the periods a regular amount of time? And why are they 7-8 months? I'm just wondering if there isn't some self-reinforcing observational logic going on here, that the expected continuation of that previous rhythm is what's actually creating it. And that the real "end of bitcoin" narrative will get exploited more effectively once this seemingly arbitrary pattern skips an iteration at some point.

Please feel free to correct my doubts if necessary, as I had also, up until now, been enjoying the contemplation of another price surge in June-July 2014!

Lol, I was thinking the same thing earlier today. People are expecting a price rise to begin this summer, based on the previous patterns. If it doesn't happen, then like you said, the real "end of bitcoin" narrative will get exploited more effectively. For this reason, I could see us entering a long flat spot.

That being said, I think Risto's made the good point that perhaps the dominant market dynamics are driven by the new (larger) group of humans that enters during each rally and the new (larger) group of investors sitting on significant returns from the previous growth spurt. And all humans basically act the same when faced for the first time with a bitcoin growth spurt. But that sounds almost too easy….

it may largely be a self-fulfilling prophesy though. Markets like these are largely driven by speculators, and speculators try to see a trend and act on it. But by acting on a trend, especially when a large group of people agrees on a trend, reinforces said trend.

Peter R

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Quote from: Carlton Banks on April 19, 2014, 09:35:47 PM

Quote from: zimmah on April 19, 2014, 06:01:36 PM

June is most likely the month were crazy stuff will happen, but it may as well be july.

Is there an actual attributable cause for this 7-8 month growth/consolidation cycle? I recognise the pattern in the charts, but have not heard any reasoning for the period length in the discourse of analysis here on the forum. Plenty folks are reinforcing the notion that the pattern will continue, and I do understand that there will be some discernible growth cycle with distinct phases delineated as static->increase->correction->static->etc.

But why are the periods a regular amount of time? And why are they 7-8 months? I'm just wondering if there isn't some self-reinforcing observational logic going on here, that the expected continuation of that previous rhythm is what's actually creating it. And that the real "end of bitcoin" narrative will get exploited more effectively once this seemingly arbitrary pattern skips an iteration at some point.

Please feel free to correct my doubts if necessary, as I had also, up until now, been enjoying the contemplation of another price surge in June-July 2014!

Lol, I was thinking the same thing earlier today. People are expecting a price rise to begin this summer, based on the previous patterns. If it doesn't happen, then like you said, the real "end of bitcoin" narrative will get exploited more effectively. For this reason, I could see us entering a long flat spot.

That being said, I think Risto's made the good point that perhaps the dominant market dynamics are driven by the new (larger) group of humans that enters during each rally and the new (larger) group of investors sitting on significant returns from the previous growth spurt. And all humans basically act the same when faced for the first time with a bitcoin growth spurt. But that sounds almost too easy….

chessnut

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I dont see any good reason for it either, but maybe that's its nature.

- there is one born every minute, and there is a bitcoin boom and bust every six months.

maybe it is constant because until now it has been consistently driven by 99% speculators. But one could also argue that the 'china ban' was an unforseen event that drove this market - I do not agree. it was fud - news comes and goes every day, the market only moves when it is vulnerable.

I am sure it will change when fundamental forces kick in - the elbow. we have not seen this yet.

Carlton Banks

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Quote from: zimmah on April 19, 2014, 06:01:36 PM

June is most likely the month were crazy stuff will happen, but it may as well be july.

Is there an actual attributable cause for this 7-8 month growth/consolidation cycle? I recognise the pattern in the charts, but have not heard any reasoning for the period length in the discourse of analysis here on the forum. Plenty folks are reinforcing the notion that the pattern will continue, and I do understand that there will be some discernible growth cycle with distinct phases delineated as static->increase->correction->static->etc.

But why are the periods a regular amount of time? And why are they 7-8 months? I'm just wondering if there isn't some self-reinforcing observational logic going on here, that the expected continuation of that previous rhythm is what's actually creating it. And that the real "end of bitcoin" narrative will get exploited more effectively once this seemingly arbitrary pattern skips an iteration at some point.

Please feel free to correct my doubts if necessary, as I had also, up until now, been enjoying the contemplation of another price surge in June-July 2014!

zimmah

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Quote from: rpietila on April 19, 2014, 12:41:32 PM

5. About zero gain last month can lead to 500% gain next month (or -50% loss).

only in bitcoin Grin

anyway, i think may will not increase us past 900, and it will probably sort of oscillate around 750 for a while.

June is most likely the month were crazy stuff will happen, but it may as well be july.

rpietila

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Quote from: nioc on April 19, 2014, 01:13:07 PM

So where does -17% fit in?

It can go anywhere Wink

nioc

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So where does -17% fit in?

Go go go with the cross correlation of random information!!

rpietila

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I found some results from the correlation of (previous_month;next_month) pairs. In other words, how the percentage gain in the previous month correlates with the gain of the coming month.

1. The linear trend was with positive slope, so in general it goes up the more, the more it has already gone up mo/mo. Grin

y = 0,2394x + 0,0672
R² = 0,05661

2. If it has crashed -22% or more in the previous month, the next month has never been better than +76%.

3. If it has crashed -48% or more, the next month has also always been negative!

4. If it has gone up at least +6% and not more than +255% (LOL) in the previous month, the next month has never been worse than -32%.

5. About zero gain last month can lead to 500% gain next month (or -50% loss).

2014-5-19: Our Last Month has been -0.083 == -17%

MahaRamana

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Quote from: Feri22 on April 19, 2014, 09:09:32 AM

I respect your analyzes and your comments, but I think we are in 2014...I think each time it is unique bubble and unique crash...i still don't understand why it is still coming in similiar timing pattern and i actually believe the next bubble will occur during june-august, but i still think that every time it is just many coincidences put together and every time it is unique...

We don't know where the price would be if there was no MtGox DDOS attack last april, no China rally, no China crash, no MTGOX crash etc...I undersand the argument the price of BTC must go up if there is demand since it is scarce, but i don't understand how this can happen again and again in similiar pattern...You can't possible predict China rally, MTgox DDOS attacks, MTGOX crash (ok this was predictable long time, but still not 100%) How would you explain it? I think for the next rally we would need Wall Street money and i really believe it will come in the right time when we should start to rally, but how is this even possible? I don't get it...

We can (try to) predict the pattern because everything in life happens through patterns, everything moves through patterns and life is only movement. Even atoms are only energy patterns and thoughts are also just patterns.
You think that the markets reacted to China or MtGox, but in reality the market movement and the "event" are only two sides of a same coin, or two dimensions of the same movement. Indeed, you could as much say that this or that event happened because the market needed to go in that or that direction. Markets are just movements in the collective mind, they don't "exist by themselves". What the collective mind will focus its attention on, and thus the "events" that the collective mind will create, depend on where we are in the movement of the pattern.
The patterns will be there, but we don't exactly know their timing and we don't know what will be used as a "cause to justify them". In fact, their cause already exists today but the collective mind just has not focused its attention on them : they are latent.

zimmah

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markets are for a large part physiological

damnek

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Quote from: Feri22 on April 19, 2014, 09:09:32 AM

Quote from: rpietila on April 19, 2014, 06:00:38 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 19, 2014, 05:32:43 AM

Quote from: rpietila on April 19, 2014, 05:27:42 AM

The above shows the bearishness. In Bitcoin's history, only once (out of 1000+ times) has one month change been worse than -60% negative.

Whereas about 15% of 30-day periods has actually seen the price at least double (+100%), a feat that the current forecasters think is almost impossible.

Since 2013-1-1, 16.3% of 30-day periods have seen the price at least double.

But has the monthly price ever doubled directly after a monthly low? that is my (only) argument against $1000 in one months time.

EDIT ok lol it has BUT has has the monthly price ever doubled after the historical capitulation low?

2011-12-6 onwards. That was 15 days after the bottom of 2011.
2013-10-7 onwards. That was 90 days after the bottom of 7/2013.

So if we are in 2011, the price is set to double now, but stay contained afterwards. If 2013, there'll be a plateau first and then rocket.

I respect your analyzes and your comments, but I think we are in 2014...I think each time it is unique bubble and unique crash...i still don't understand why it is still coming in similiar timing pattern and i actually believe the next bubble will occur during june-august, but i still think that every time it is just many coincidences put together and every time it is unique...

We don't know where the price would be if there was no MtGox DDOS attack last april, no China rally, no China crash, no MTGOX crash etc...I undersand the argument the price of BTC must go up if there is demand since it is scarce, but i don't understand how this can happen again and again in similiar pattern...You can't possible predict China rally, MTgox DDOS attacks, MTGOX crash (ok this was predictable long time, but still not 100%) How would you explain it? I think for the next rally we would need Wall Street money and i really believe it will come in the right time when we should start to rally, but how is this even possible? I don't get it...

In the end, it is that the people who trade bitcoin that make up the price of bitcoin. Since we're kind of in uncharted waters, we tend to look back at historical data to see how bitcoin used to walk through this seemingly periodical cycle. The cycle looks slightly different each time to make it unpredictable enough in order to shake out weak traders, but at the same time it is the law of human greed that we see take place, so I believe that we'll continue to see these cycles for a while.

The traders as a collective are surprisingly good at setting the fair price and predicting when "wall street money" will enter the market. It seems that this cycle is taking longer than the other ones, but it looks like we'll be right on track with the recovery for Q4 of 2014 when the first bitcoin fund is going to be publicly traded.

Feri22

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Quote from: rpietila on April 19, 2014, 06:00:38 AM

Quote from: chessnut on April 19, 2014, 05:32:43 AM

Quote from: rpietila on April 19, 2014, 05:27:42 AM

The above shows the bearishness. In Bitcoin's history, only once (out of 1000+ times) has one month change been worse than -60% negative.

Whereas about 15% of 30-day periods has actually seen the price at least double (+100%), a feat that the current forecasters think is almost impossible.

Since 2013-1-1, 16.3% of 30-day periods have seen the price at least double.

But has the monthly price ever doubled directly after a monthly low? that is my (only) argument against $1000 in one months time.

EDIT ok lol it has BUT has has the monthly price ever doubled after the historical capitulation low?

2011-12-6 onwards. That was 15 days after the bottom of 2011.
2013-10-7 onwards. That was 90 days after the bottom of 7/2013.

So if we are in 2011, the price is set to double now, but stay contained afterwards. If 2013, there'll be a plateau first and then rocket.

I respect your analyzes and your comments, but I think we are in 2014...I think each time it is unique bubble and unique crash...i still don't understand why it is still coming in similiar timing pattern and i actually believe the next bubble will occur during june-august, but i still think that every time it is just many coincidences put together and every time it is unique...

We don't know where the price would be if there was no MtGox DDOS attack last april, no China rally, no China crash, no MTGOX crash etc...I undersand the argument the price of BTC must go up if there is demand since it is scarce, but i don't understand how this can happen again and again in similiar pattern...You can't possible predict China rally, MTgox DDOS attacks, MTGOX crash (ok this was predictable long time, but still not 100%) How would you explain it? I think for the next rally we would need Wall Street money and i really believe it will come in the right time when we should start to rally, but how is this even possible? I don't get it...

chessnut

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Quote from: aminorex on April 19, 2014, 07:22:11 AM

Naively, it is MORE likely to gain strongly after a sharp drop.

yup agreed but I am talking about the statistics not the probability.

aminorex

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Sine secretum non libertas

Quote from: chessnut on April 19, 2014, 05:32:43 AM

Quote from: rpietila on April 19, 2014, 05:27:42 AM

The above shows the bearishness. In Bitcoin's history, only once (out of 1000+ times) has one month change been worse than -60% negative.

Whereas about 15% of 30-day periods has actually seen the price at least double (+100%), a feat that the current forecasters think is almost impossible.

Since 2013-1-1, 16.3% of 30-day periods have seen the price at least double.

But has the monthly price ever doubled directly after a monthly low? that is my (only) argument against $1000 in one months time.

EDIT ok lol it has BUT has has the monthly price ever doubled after the historical capitulation low?

Naively, it is MORE likely to gain strongly after a sharp drop.

rpietila

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Quote from: chessnut on April 19, 2014, 05:32:43 AM

Quote from: rpietila on April 19, 2014, 05:27:42 AM

The above shows the bearishness. In Bitcoin's history, only once (out of 1000+ times) has one month change been worse than -60% negative.

Whereas about 15% of 30-day periods has actually seen the price at least double (+100%), a feat that the current forecasters think is almost impossible.

Since 2013-1-1, 16.3% of 30-day periods have seen the price at least double.

But has the monthly price ever doubled directly after a monthly low? that is my (only) argument against $1000 in one months time.

EDIT ok lol it has BUT has has the monthly price ever doubled after the historical capitulation low?

2011-12-6 onwards. That was 15 days after the bottom of 2011.
2013-10-7 onwards. That was 90 days after the bottom of 7/2013.

So if we are in 2011, the price is set to double now, but stay contained afterwards. If 2013, there'll be a plateau first and then rocket.

chessnut

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Quote from: rpietila on April 19, 2014, 05:27:42 AM

The above shows the bearishness. In Bitcoin's history, only once (out of 1000+ times) has one month change been worse than -60% negative.

Whereas about 15% of 30-day periods has actually seen the price at least double (+100%), a feat that the current forecasters think is almost impossible.

Since 2013-1-1, 16.3% of 30-day periods have seen the price at least double.

But has the monthly price ever doubled directly after a monthly low? that is my (only) argument against $1000 in one months time.

EDIT ok lol it has BUT has has the monthly price ever doubled after the historical capitulation low?

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

The above shows the bearishness. In Bitcoin's history, only once (out of 1000+ times) has one month change been worse than -60% negative.

Whereas about 15% of 30-day periods has actually seen the price at least double (+100%), a feat that the current forecasters think is almost impossible.

Since 2013-1-1, 16.3% of 30-day periods have seen the price at least double.

Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 222. (Read 907248 times)