Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 218. (Read 907212 times)

I also sleepwalk and have some control over my dreams.  But I don't believe I am easily hypnotized.  I fail all suggestion exercises (Why, yes, how did you know I was thinking of a green elephant?  Green elephant?!?  I was thinking of a gray emu!)

Does Bitcoin Debitcard change the TA?

Thanks for the site.  I will see if I can follow the stories.  Maybe later this year it might talk about mobile money or something else (I could also get involved in) in America (I know M-pesa is big in Africa - but not sure how tightly regulated it would be in America since there are only a few big phone companies)

wish I could afford to buy 100BTC now

(oh btw) Paypal, you were so accommodating back then ..

I think this was the first story I read...

http://news.slashdot.org/story/10/07/11/1747245/bitcoin-releases-version-03

I thought cool. I'm going to set my PC mining some coins see what happens... I started researching, but I was working, and stuff got in the way and I forgot about it. oh internets.

This was the second story I read...

http://news.slashdot.org/story/11/02/10/189246/online-only-currency-bitcoin-reaches-dollar-parity

I smacked myself in the face for failing to act sooner, sold my left testicle (this is a metaphor) and bought 100BTC pronto.

... time passes, you wait ...

etc

dunno bout everyone else but i just read slashdot. as much as "everyone" slags it off on there, they were still reporting it...

Can I just ask how so many people heard of bitcoin back then.  The only reason I heard of it was because some yahoo lost 7,500 btc (thrown away harddrive).  If it were not for that news coverage, I would not have heard of btc at all.
I probably should have been watching the financial shows (that tracks stocks that has mentioned bitcoin like when it broke 1 billion or seen the winklevoss twins interviews) or just read more on yahoo news (a few years ago).

I remember in 2010-2011 I was into facebook poker (zynga).  I told this guy I spent $20 on some zynga poker chips and he was like, "Wow you spent money on virtual coins."
Like dam, now I felt like I should have googled that or something.

I invested $100 I couldn't well afford, average buy price was $1.06. First buy was 11th Feb 2011.

I felt bitter about not buying at $0.30 when I first heard about BTC.

I look back and think WTF didn't I buy 10x more.

Maybe in 2 yrs time I'll feel the same. Maybe I won't.

I've invested an amount I can afford to lose, average buy price $508
First buy was Feb 20 2014
I'm still a bit bitter about not first buying in at $140ish.  I really wanted to, but MT.GOX scared me away before I committed.

Even assuming BTC becomes worthless.  It has been educational for me enough that I feel like I'd still walk away a winner.  My interest in economics has been re-kindled and I believe that knowledge of crypto-currencies may end up being an important part of my resume in the future if I continue learning at this pace. 

I feel you bro.

I know I have invested way beyond what is sensible but that's my choice & I don't regret it. It's a risk I'm prepared to take. I'll either be selling at $50k or more or I'll lose everything, but I'll hold to the bitter end

Risto, thanks again for your level headed and clear perspective on overall bitcoin analysis.  You are one of the few on this board that takes a rational, intelligent, and fairly optimistic approach to bitcoin's long term potential.  

On the notion of "boredom selling", I've thought about this idea is well.

The probability of selling out of boredom would seem to be affected by factors such as:
1.  Respective to one's entry position, i.e. buyers at the lowest historical point will not have seen a lot of volatility, and a higher chance of seeing a protracted "sideways" stagnation movement...possibly for months.  They also have the least to lose percentage wise, even if the price goes a bit lower.  So their probability of selling out of boredom if the price stagnates for a long period would seem higher relative to others that invested at a much higher price point.
2.  Inversely proportional to how underwater one is in terms of *total* investment.  I.e., someone who invested $300 worth total when the price was at $1000/BTC has less to lose overall if they boredom sell at $500/BTC (their loss being -$150 total). But someone who invests $30K when the price was at $1000/BTC has much more to lose by selling now.  People are more willing to lock in losses when they are relatively small, but not so much when they are great.
3.  Conversely, some may have so relatively little purchased compared to their net worth (like say $10-20) they they don't really care to sell at all, even if the price goes down from their entry point.
4.  Maturity level of the buyer.  The more mature the buyer, the less likely they will boredom sell.

So the question is, out of how many holders of BTC really have purchased a) enough to matter to them to continue holding onto it, and b) what is their average entry point and total investment mean average (+/- %) relative to the current price level?  I'm guessing this is not an easy thing to even try to estimate, if not impossible.

no, definitely not going to sell now, but getting a little bored waiting on some action

In real life, investment/development decisions are not flip-flopped overnight. There are factors like funding, resourcing people, etc. that make the planning horizon to be at least several months, even years.

The closure of Mt.Gox did not affect Malla at all. It may have postponed many ideas that were in planning stage, and it has definitely built up a growing backlog of people who would have liked to buy bitcoins but are now hesitant since they await for clearer waters. When all these start to move, they will be the building blocks of the next rally.

Last summer we did not see the rally immediately after the capitulation. It took months for new people to become confident enough to start buying. Patience! Don't sell now!

Surely if 'existing participants close shop in droves', there'll be no new participants entering the bitcoin economy. If they see others giving up on it, they'd be unlikely to enter themselves?

That is understandable, because few if any (LTC, DOGE, ?) altcoins have any economy supporting them. If they don't gain in value, they lose it, and quickly. With Bitcoin, the economy is constantly growing and the lead time with real-world projects is so long (6-24 months) that it is virtually shielded from short-term price fluctuations. Eg. the Malla project is fully funded for 2014, and only if Bitcoin loses nearly all of its value, would its growth (in a sense of increasing contribution to "real" economy with bitcoins) be hampered, and even that only from 2015 on.

Only if existing bitcoin economy participants start closing shop in droves, mitigating the effect of the myriad of new projects, would there be any chance for Bitcoin to even stall in the long term. Anything else is supportive to continuing price appreciation.

(Yes I acknowledge that the closing of exchanges counts in the equation.)

...and bitcoin is relatively stable in this regard. The boredom factor is ten times stronger with altcoins.

I just wanted to state that I really appritiate the fact that you have started talking in terms of mBTC as I see it as necessary in the future to speak in terms of smaller fractions of bitcoin (even though it doesn't necessarly have to be in terms of mBTC), so why not start now?
Regarding the price prediction fear is starting to build up again. Even though I like the latest green candles we need to see more of those soon, else I think we will see more red candles and panic selling comming up.

Quick TA update (at $0.481):
- 6H candle color/volume: not much volume during this week, conclusion: none/(historically: bearish)
- Bid/ask strengh at market (Bitstamp): slippage to sell 5k: $0.040, slippage to buy: $0.043, conclusion: both sides have built up since last time
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.355 log units. The trendline is at $1.090 and rising $0.008 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (note: it is not necessary that 'rock bottom' will change until the parabolic uptrend starts, because the trendline is itself rising)
- Sentiment: n/a
- Prognosis: shortest term unsecure, mid-term not sure if reversal seems confirmed, long-term buy zone



The volume in Bitstamp is absolutely anemic. I remember it took a week for me to purchase my initial lot of coins in 2011. It would now similarly take a week to acquire a corresponding position. Either there is nobody in the world in the process of doing it (!) or they are using other methods. Granted, buying a large number of bitcoins takes more cash now than in 2011, and therefore the buyers may be different class of people mainly...

The "price vs. trendline" has dipped lower than at any point in the slump of mid-2013. Before the beginning of the (first) 2013 rally, it was -0.583. If we were that low now, the price would be $0.285. The historically correct way to use the trendline has been to buy at the first time the price crosses -0.3 from above. This gave excellent results in 10-2011 and 7-2013, and I believe the $0.46 from 4-2014 will turn out to be a prime low-risk entry point.

In another forum, I read about the urge to "boredom sell" if "nothing" is happening for "a long time". It is sometimes hard to comprehend how quickly some of the forum frequents would like things to happen. Bitcoin has sustainably gained value 1,000% per year, which is 0.7% per day on average. The yearly return is 1,000 times more than you get from a bank, and on average 100 times better than stock market. (There is no comparison in "10 times better", because no investment can generate such returns, and still it would be only 1/10 as good as Bitcoin has historically been).

Think in bitcoins! Think in percentages! I have tried to keep my share as 1/1000 of the world's bitcoins, and only slowly going down when it gains more appreciation. Don't sell out of boredom, like I did last September, wasting 2000+ bitcoins and gaining.. nothing really. Only sell if you gain something, and even then only if the price is right.