Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 293. (Read 907212 times)

I just scored 59236 in this game by having the following tiles:

4096 (I won't tell the colour of it but it seems to be on-topic)
1024
512
2*128
64
32
16
2*8
4*4
2*2

Quote:


"White is a factor because browner people are too busy enjoying the outdoor and natural life. The white males are stuck inside with winter and find indoor male hobbies. Females in general aren't going to adopt anything that is not super easy, not threatening, available in pink, and lovingly accepted by their peers."

"First of all Bitcoin (as it currently stands unless morphed as I say above) will be limited to reasonably affluent, white males mostly under age 50. Thus figure the upper limit of adoption is several hundred million. Note NE Asians are white."

Anonymint. If you want to break out of the rather small racial / misogynistic  bubble you are opining from you could research what Mpesa (Kenya based, with hundreds of millions of Africans as a customer base, skin color other-than-white) is doing with bitcoin. Implementation being lead by a young woman who spends more time with African bankers than barbies.

Or not. Your choice.

Anonymint, I'm not going to argue with you. Your programming skills are far superior to mine. Also just the vast amount of time you spend on this forum should automatically put your bitcoin knowledge in another division compared to mine.

In general I agree with your comments to a large degree (which I think you know). Still, I do wonder what you really think about the adoption rate of bitcoin since it seems like you are contradicting yourself at times. Stating things like bitcoin will become the elites new monetary system for global surveillance of all transactions, bitcoin is perhaps the mark of the beast, Satoshi Nakamoto was the US government etc. Those type of comments don't scale well when assuming bitcoin is only a geek phenomenon for white males bellow 50. Perhaps you are having a hard time estimating the adoption rate in which I understand since it's basically what we are all discussing here. A continued exponential increase in bitcoin users will automatically lead to price increases (even if some exchanges start utilizing fractional reserve banking, which probably already has happened by the way). Will the exponential increase continue? I think so and have not seen anything that shows otherwise as of yet.

creekbore, you expected Larry Page and Sergey Brin to be hanging around in Yahoo back in the late 1990s too.

I don't need to win any political contest. We share information here. What you do with it, is your own.

But your join date for this forum is (precisely) one year ago...given your omnipotent tech-powers, I'd have expected you to have been around much longer.


FTFY

Now for a dose of reality on those illogical $million price projections for Bitcoin...


Logistic S-curve adoption.

But the breadth of adoption depends on the utility of the technology.

Smart phones and toilet paper are technologies just about everyone needs (note I don't use the latter).

Unless Bitcoin will be morphed via offchain reserves to correct glaring weaknesses in its technological design, then it can not and will not appeal to most of the population.

If you are not factoring that into your FA analysis, then your FA is flawed.

First of all Bitcoin (as it currently stands unless morphed as I say above) will be limited to reasonably affluent, white males mostly under age 50. Thus figure the upper limit of adoption is several hundred million. Note NE Asians are white.

So we may already be at that adoption "chasm" you mentioned, or it will come on the next run up and peak in price.


Assuming the stock is rigid and hasn't morphed into an offchain reserves coin.


And so Bitcoin's value will not approach fiat for general commerce without being so morphed.

Given the above argument, you can see why a dip below $300 is psychologically important. We ain't going to da moon, so a lower entry price builds enthusiasm and bullish resolve.


P.S. White is a factor because browner people are too busy enjoying the outdoor and natural life. The white males are stuck inside with winter and find indoor male hobbies. Females in general aren't going to adopt anything that is not super easy, not threatening, available in pink, and lovingly accepted by their peers.

Add:

Andreas M. Antonopoulos claims in the developing world Bitcoin is approached by a different class. However if as it appears be he is referring to his experiences in South America, there is a huge influx of former European immigrants there.

It is a fact that people close to a technology have an early advantage that the general public can not. However they also frequently overestimate their beloved technology as there are market realities they (usually subconsciously) chose to be oblivious to. So the sword cuts both ways, there is no free lunch.

Risto the creator of this thread is a Christian. I provided scriptures for him, but I can make the same logical argument from a non-religious perspective also.

aminorex, knows how to use a thesaurus, e.g. quotidian instead of daily and apposite instead of appropriate, apt, befitting or suitable.

Wow, congrats.
I didn't think anyone could out do aminorex for pomposity and arrogance, but I reckon you're getting there.

Glory be and thank the Lord for the programmers, they will save us (from ourselves).....I seem to recall you like to quote scripture to us.

You misinterpreted my post. Even if an altcoin could succeed in the way I suggested, how would you know which one? Thus your chances of beating your investment in Bitcoin are slim.

I was explaining why you are locked into this groupthink, because statistically you can't break out of it. Because you don't have the insider view I have being a different level of programmer than you. I can evaluate things that you can't. However, even with that advantage, my odds of prediction against the mainstream inertia are not even as high as 50%. Yet they aren't as low as 0.1% either. At this moment, I would place the odds of my prediction some where in the low single digits percentage. Within a few weeks if developments come, I might be able to raise that higher than the teens.

The key most factoid is a cpu-only coin (no GPUs!) could be a viral threat to Bitcoin, as it can spread by word-of-mouth even to those who heard of Bitcoin and want to mine some coin for free and the neato "hey I did it too" factor.


I concur. Bitcoin needs rejuvenated, emotional rocket fuel (remember this bubble is all about rationalization and not technological facts, as I pointed out the technological reality in my posts that no one wants to admit). A dip below $300 would create a frenzy of very bullish people that bought in at a price that gives them an orgasmic need to ejaculate their enthusiasm all over the boards. (I suppose you can include me in that group, since I've apparently become obsessed lately)

However, that doesn't mean it must happen that way.

rpietila,

-also major/master economics (not like you can take much else after taking undergrad in econ lol). I agree... Only thing I want to add is that if bitcoin achieves adoption, upper limit of stable price should be equivalent to volume transfer equivalent in fiat.

http://assets.nerdwallet.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/transaction-volume-2006-2010.jpg

I only myself understood this about last month, after the following qualifications:

- good in math, Major in Economics
- Known of Bitcoin since 2010, owner since 2011
- 4 months study of the very subject in question, about to write a book about it.

So what did I understand:

- Bitcoin is a technology
- Technologies have a known adoption cycle
- To adopt Bitcoin, you must buy bitcoins
- Buying bitcoins from a rigid stock increases its price to induce existing holders to sell
- The value of Bitcoin network is correlated with the number of its members
- The purchasing power of one bitcoin is roughly linearly correlated to the number of bitcoin owners in the world and it can be expressed with the following equation: 0.0005*U (USD/BTC), where "U" is the number of bitcoin owners.

So I am all for listening to other viewpoints, as long as they conform to observable reality like the ones I presented.

By the way, the excellent clarity of the message was supplied by Cohiba Siglo VI.

We are approaching the event where the last technical analysts and investors attempt to front-run the next cycle and get in on the next rally.

What happens when there are no front runners left, and it becomes apparent that there is in-fact no new rally cycle starting?

We are approaching the event that the last technical analysts sell when they are expecting a break down.

What happens when there are no technical analysts left? 

If you think this isn't the bottom since we haven't spent enough time on the 60 minute shananagan TA red line upside down bar chart then by all means don't HODL. My FA indicates that bitcoin is growing exponentially and exponential growth is one puppy you don't want to **** with.

Right, TA is better than FA because bitcoin is a stock. Or a commodity. Or a stock. Or a commodity. Not a technology. Got it.

Looks like its gonna break up in my eyes

So consensus here is that bitcom could go to $70, an altcoin could be a much better investment and TA is a much more reliable price indicator than FA for btc. Mmmmkay, guess I have to sell all my coins now. Or actually, should probably do the opposite of what people are thinking here.

Everybody have targets that are too conservative both on the downside and upside. I think that, if 2011 scenario will repeat itself, the downside could be $69-70. I am not predicting this at all, just pointing out the result of a similar correction in %%.
On the other hand, if Mr Silbert is to be believed and serious money is about to be invested in BTC, we can easily be at $5-10K in 12 mo, current doldrums notwithstanding.

Critical levels are about to be broken. 3400 on Huobi marks the last piece of resistance in price history short term. 545 Bitstamp, 550 BFX.