Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 294. (Read 907212 times)

Not exclusively. Offchain also includes centralized exchanges such as a Mt.Gox, instead of decentralized ones (which are in development and don't exist yet). Such offchain exchanges lead to fractional reserves, fraud, and thus government regulation and take over.

Eventually these offchains are banks. Then we are no longer using Bitcoin, rather government regulated fractional reserves called "Bitcoin". This is a very likely outcome, because dumb masses will never want to use decentralized exchanges.They prefer Coinbase and a bank to "secure" their coins.


Assuming no exchange is creating a massive amount of fractional reserves. Fractional reserves are possible when people are not transacting their coins, just buy and hold on the exchange such as Coinbase. But Coinbase is honest (?).

The more valuable Bitcoin becomes, the more incentive to create Bitcoins from thin air. You really don't think the banksters will just sit idle and watch you become $billionaires at their expense do you?

They've been doing this racket for 100s of years, and you expect them to just roll over and play dead?


I've studied this in technical (not to be confused with chart TA) detail. Zero transactions fees are possible in a properly designed altcoin but not in Bitcoin's design. There are crucial things that can never change in Bitcoin's design any more.

Offchain can improve other things such as the 10 - 60 minute transaction delay for Bitcoin. It is also possible to design an altcoin without such a significant delay so "nearly instant" online micropayments can remain decentralized and on chain.

There will be serious competitors to Bitcoin, but see below...


The solution to the capital gains problem is Bitcoin becomes fiat. This could happen eventually and investors could pile now in under that assumption.

I see the mainstream crypto-currency has to be the government sanctioned one. There is no other way around that. Might as well just accept it, and think about the implications for yourself as an investor, specifically the witchhunt against all wealth coming as the governments tax+confiscate into oblivion and the lack of anonymity in Bitcoin as compared to gold or some hypothetical altcoin (apparently not DarkCoin nor CoinJoin though).

Some have argued they don't care if society confiscates (taxes) 90% if their gains are 1000X. That is still 100X gains.

Then again if there is an anonymous coin that gives you 10,000X (because it is smaller and you are earlier to invest), and you don't face taxes nor confiscation, those investors are going to be 100X higher on the totem pole, e.g. $billionaires versus $10 millionaires. Think private jets instead of old manors.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-22/imfs-property-tax-hike-proposal-comes-true-uk-imposing-mansion-tax-soon-year


I see very clearly why you support the mainstream crypto-currency and normally that is the correct move (also you probably have no deep programming or technical skills so you couldn't change the situation if you were so inclined, you are reliant on the trend for your stored monetary capital, i.e. No Money Exists Without the Majority). I also see very clearly that every 80 years or so, the mainstream goes in chaos with confiscation and war.

So I see failure of the mainstream 2016ish. Why should I board the Titantic?

Should Google have never improved upon Yahoo? Should Facebook have not taken over from Friendster and Myspace? Can you be sure Bitcoin is an exception to the usual rule that the first one is almost never the winning one.

Groupthink
Groupthink is a psychological phenomenon that occurs within a group of people, in which the desire for harmony or conformity in the group results in an irrational or dysfunctional decision-making outcome.

group·think
ˈgro͞opˌTHiNGk/
noun
noun: groupthink; noun: group-think

    1.
    the practice of thinking or making decisions as a group in a way that discourages creativity or individual responsibility.

yes, feels like july 21, 2013 up in here 

If it is occurring as a result of a court-order (which would explain the disregard for profit motive during execution) then we can look forward to this continuing for at least two weeks (as selling half the coins would arrive at a balanced liquidity position from which to restart operations).

It may be that a responsible court officer would report that the enterprise funds were being squandered, and put an end to the mindless dump before that, but not until Monday JST at least.

Yeah, seems right. I wonder why dark bids/asks aren't a more common feature on exchanges (i.e., why doesn't Bitstamp offer them natively)?

I think somewhere between 35 and 50 % of the bfx volume in the past 40 hours has gone through a dark ask, which has moved between 572, 557, and now 563 and holding.   Probably about 4000 coins so far, with 1500 of those moving at 563.   Using only public information, it is a very subjective estimate.  It is based on estimating what bitstamp volume should be on the basis of comparable periods of low volatility at similar daytime hours in the recent past, assuming that 30% of the coins moved are resold higher on bitstamp, and sanity-checking the estimate by comparison to the total volumes on bfx.

Probably a mountain-goat building up a cash position to go along with the needed bitcoin position to (re)open gox.com

You better have the assistance of a couple forensic journalists backing that claim. 

Now seriously, do you think this has something to do with Bitstamp being cheaper than BTC-e?

How are you inferring the volume of coins sold at 563? (and how any do you estimate have been sold at that price?)

Depends on when the seller at 563 on bfx runs out of coins.  As far as I can tell his initials are S.N.  He has controlled the global price of bitcoin for about 36 hours so far.

Bitcoin is quite clearly going 2 da moon long term. The question is when. When will we hit the 10k mark and finally be catapulted into bitcoin mainstream usage and big company acceptance like amazon? It will happen eventually, the signs are all there. The question is when. This year or next year or 5 years from now?

This is so super important.  Bitcoin's fundamentals are very compelling.  Until something comes along that solves nearly ALL of bitcoin's problems and overtakes it's growing network effect bitcoin continues to have a lot of built in fundamental propulsive power.  Considering that many solutions to bicoin's shortcomings will be layers on top of bitcoin, there is also a possibility, in my opinion, that within bitcoin itself and its community is the solution to it's own problems.

One of the factors I keep in mind as I watch this market, is that the price is still easily manipulated by relatively small amounts of $ or btc. The big players in the game today can pretty much move the market wherever they want - although temporarily. Right now they have a very strong incentive to keep the long-term trend positive - even while of course pushing prices lower to get better buy prices for their clients/investors/self. So while it is certainly possible we could see somewhat lower prices for a week or so, I think it unlikely at this point that the big fish will let the market turn seriously down (ie negative sloping 200 ema). Once that happened, technical investors would loose interest for the time being. They want this ride to continue too. So I think we will see a very similar pattern to what we saw in the last 2 cycles. Steady, boring climbs very close to the 200 ema until the pressure of new money, and a wildly optimistic news cycle kicks in.

And this will continue to be the case as long as underlying adoption fundamentals continue to grow on trend.

When/if we start seeing significant drops in rate of adoption fundamentals (adoption gap) then I think we may see the market turn serious negative for a year or more. This of course is very possible at some point in our journey, but that is not at all what I am seeing now. Almost all of the incentives and fundamentals are aligned for continued bull market (+slope 200 ema). And I do believe (although don't have the data for it) that there is plenty of new money ready to come in the game as soon as price is clearly not going lower, and as more serious exchange options come on line.

BTW although this is a technical analysis thread - a great interview with very sweet woman setting up bitpesa in Kenya. Ignore the first 12:15 on the video (unless you enjoy Max). Excellent example of disruption that is coming this year, and they also have the right attitude and practical business sense to create real adoption breakthroughs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LAOVpd2rzR0&index=2&list=FLKXisgZ3QP19rEPFzqfUmzA

Even if only 5% of the current price represents fundamentals. If the fundamentals grow exponentially that 5% will exceed the other 95% very quickly.

Im not sure how to post graphs here, but has anybody else noticed that the recent drop has squarely bounced off that almighty trendline that BTCe sports so very well. The one that underlines the daily wedge.

MAbc would know what im talking about.

any sign of reversal at this stage would be significant for so many reasons....

I think the chinese that sold on the FUD want their bitcoins back too.

He has stated that he believes 95% of the value of price is speculation. I don't think he believes fundamentals that you mention are currently important or related to large price increases.

Then it conflicts with the fundamentals. Bitcoin usage is growing exponentially and the new users/investors need bitcoins. When they buy them, the price rises. Any TA that does not take this into account is harmful for the financial well-being of its user

The 5-year trendline is not at 880. We are at 560. It is becoming an increasingly good time to buy, similar to buying <100 last summer just months before an explosive correction upwards.

Mathematically, the log(880)-log(560) = -0.196. Last time it got to -0.341 and the time before that (Dec-2012) to -0.583.

Because the knowlegde of Bitcoin's long-term value is now spread wider, I would be surprised if we go as low as -0.5 below the trend. -0.3 is quite possible, and it would take us to 463 if the low point was reached a week from now.

On the other hand, when everybody is expecting lower prices they typically don't come. It's been a red candle 8 days in a row and it is oversold.

He posted about it in another thread a day or so ago. Basically he was using a combination of RSI and other indicators to suggest that this "capitulation" cycle was much different than ones before and was leading into a long term bearish cycle.

Anything else but your word to support this theory?

Dont mean to butt in here, but Im following LTC closely.

..... obviously there was a bubble leading up to the launch on Huobi. fun short trading that.

I doubt that the launch will increase genuine demand significantly, so any recovery from the recent crash will be only a portion of the last bubble, and likely only profit taking because the crowd needs time to re-build trust.

I entered a long position today because the chart is over sold but down momentum is lost. I want to cash out at around $17-18, and short a bunch if it shows any sign of weakness.