Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 296. (Read 907227 times)

Why do you see a lot of buyers at $400 as a sign that the final capitulation will be < $400?

Dude why don't you keep your religious moralism to yourself. It does not belong in this forum. That is the problem with all religions on this poor small planet, they keep trying to takeover the public square.

The time of BTC is upon us if we accept that the masses will use it if offchain regulated businesses provide fixes to all the useability problems with Bitcoin onchain (e.g. 10 - 60 minute transactions, private keys stolen, etc).

But then we give up decentralization and have a global fiat- the antithesis of the idealism purported to be the reason we are investing.

And if we are investing simply to get rich, note that if the regulators can track everything, this is no solution to the coming massive confisations 2016ish as we descend into the global economic conflagrapocalpyse.

Oh I know you don't care as long as you can make a speculative buck in the meantime, who cares if it is all going to be taken from you in a couple of years any way.

Hamster much.  

P.S. I know there are other possible outcomes. The global debt could just disappear. You could hide your gold deep in the forests of Finland. And all other such illogical fantasies.

Why only 2 billions?

Some estimations say by 2020 there will be 4 to 5 billions Internet users:
http://www.neowin.net/news/microsoft-internet-users-will-double-to-4-billion-worldwide-by-2020
http://edition.cnn.com/2013/04/15/tech/web/eric-schmidt-internet

Oh God! (sic)  -- the Quality TA thread is reduced to quoting scripture to show the time of BTC is not upon us.

Again I pointed out that this is not applicable to the masses.

Besides, by the time you can get the masses to adopt anything it will be owned by the government through regulation.

There is no way to get the masses to help you the millionaires. You are trapped. I am trying to help you, but you are obstinate (because you are not a polymath). And thus deserve your fate.


Since you are a Christian, I will explain from that perspective (I could also explain from an atheist perspective too).

Huh, your Bible in Proverbs says "borrower is slave to the lender".

Do you really think the masses can run up this huge debt which enabled them to abandon God and run abortions to 40 million a year, birth control to pervasive from age 15, and for women to no longer need men because they are supported by the state, and for there to be no enslavement?

I suggest you (re-)read carefully 1 Samuel 8 then 1 Samuel 15.


Simpleton mistake. Complete failure to understand economics of fitness, c.f. this post:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.5837161


I am talking about what the masses will do.

If you want something only for us, then Bitcoin has the wrong design and can't protect our anonymity.

If you want to fight in the open, then you need the masses on your side. And the masses always go to the side of the banksters and the leaders of the power vacuum of democracy.

Again read 1 Samuel 8, so you can understand.

Just want to point out that 1,500,000 / 7,300,000,000 = .0002 = 0.02%.


2000k/2000kk= 0.001 = 0.1%

Quick and dirty guide to using the percent sign "%":

100% = 1



+1


Why are you touting the debt as if it made some kind of justification for enslavement?

- (fiat) Money is debt. They never gave us anything valuable when we borrowed from them. The new money was just created at the moment of loan, and was deducted as inflation from everyone else. They did not give us gold, land, or real goods. We supplied them to them all the time. It is important for people to realize that this debt is a mirage, people are free, and they have received nothing that they should rightfully pay back, quite the contrary.
- In the past centuries enslavement was typically done by physical force, and all land was confiscated, gold was plundered etc. They even now have the largest army with most military bases, and actively seek conflict all over the world to sway everyone, especially the ones who are not indebted to them via fiat money system. NB: This is not directed against the second most hapless people in the world, the Americans (the first one  are the Finnish), both are tools, useful idiots, and chattel in their usage.

I have heard you bragging that you would rather die before giving them your hard earned silver? What makes you now so eager to file tax returns and claim the end of bitcoin because filing tax returns becomes so difficult? Can you only be enslaved by trickery and not by force? Can you see why it amuses me?

Again you misjudge the masses, because you are not one. You can't put yourself in their mindset and priority set. I can.


In theory yes, but in practice no. I detect you don't have real world experience doing technical support for a software company. I do.

You don't have every user using the same application and tax regime. Some tax regimes are not even efile yet.

And users will avoid something with no advantages which carries the stigma of needing to pay a tax. If they are using it as a currency, they aren't paying attention to gains, and see the tax only as a burden and risk (what if they automation fails, they lose their backup copy, then can't comply with the tax filing!)

Eventually you could get there, but long before that the government will have taken over the exchanges, the pools, and the coin. Or simply offered a digital fiat which doesn't have Bitcoin's problems.

And btw, what is the advantage for the average person to use Bitcoin and go through this hassle to set up this software? None that I can see.

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For those in the 3rd world, they use cash and the vendors they buy from will not be accepting Bitcoin any time soon. Simply worse for them in every way.

There is nothing they can gain from being banked with Bitcoin that they couldn't get with cash.

Even money transfer using Bitcoin is stupid, since they need to convert to cash any way.

For those minority who don't (a super majority does) file taxes in the developed countries, I still don't see what is the reason for them to use Bitcoin?

Most in USA file a tax return to get their payroll deductions refund, or their Child Tax credit, etc.. I don't know about Europe?


For example, localbitcoins doesn't have an app for that.  They would need to customize the app for every tax regime too.


Capital gains is one of them as this scales away from investors to consumers.

Indeed there are many other problems that make Bitcoin impractical. The argument is always offchain services, but those are a problem too or bring us right back to fiat.

I just don't see the big idealistic win. If you are just hoping to help the government create a digital fiat, and get rich on that investment, I doubt it will work out, because of the $223 trillion debt the government is going to confiscate all the wealth it can find. And remember Bitcoin isn't anonymous so you can't reliably hide in it.

P.S. if the quality of my prose is declining, it is because I've been awake for 20 hours and forehead is ready to meet keyboard.

There is no hassle, because it is trivial to automate.  A pretty large set of users just don't file tax returns, and could not care in the least.  Another large set have people who do that for them.  The remainder generally have an app for that.

Bitcoin has enormous usability problems for quotidian consumer applications.  I am acutely aware of this.  But capital gains tax is not one of them.

Bears are out to play on Huboi, the rally has had its chance, and failed. if ya cant beat em, join em. The magic number now is 3400. breaking that level could let the cat out of the bag. who knows how far we could go.

1. The hassle of recording and paying tax for numerous daily tidbit transactions is far outweighed by the insignificant value loss of holding $500 in your checking account (exhibit my prior post that average Dogecoin holding is claimed to be $430 per user).

2. You are not thinking like the masses who are not the rich precisely because they don't have a lot of savings to invest. And thus they don't have the same priority set as you. But you as an investor in what you want them to use, need to think like them to understand this investment.

I saw this within my initial study of Bitcoin yet Risto (and you?) apparently haven't registered this in your consciousness yet after years of being invested.

The wildcard is if there could be an application (other than investing) that targeted the rich demographic which is investing in Bitcoin. Well that is...anonymity. They will need it to survive what is coming! And Bitcoin doesn't have it.


You just proved my point.

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That question makes no sense to me as a U.S. tax payer.  Given a choice between holding my spending money in a form which loses value costs me much more than does holding it in a form which gains value, regardless of whether the gains are taxed.

Applying the criteria of logical coherence which you impose upon those you disagree with, I should therefore conclude that you are incapable of competent cognition and should be ignored.

Of course that criterion is a ludicrous one, but I thought it might be helpful to you if I pointed that out.

My 0.01% - 0.03% guesstimate was 600,000 to 1.8 million based on world population of 6 billion.

Dogecoin (why don't they pronounce it "doggiecoin" or "dog-ecoin" ) claims 100,000 users yet the mcap is only $43 million. Apparently it is the copper-zinc penny coin (feel good marketing, donations, cute dogs) and Litecoin is the current silver to Bitcoin's gold.

Isn't market cap more relevant+concrete than the nebulous concept of "users" (not all types of users are the same).

Feel free to copy or reply to this on your other thread that is relevant to this issue.

We are clearly in investment only stage, because who can use a daily currency that is taxed for capital gains on every spend. That will block any major application as a currency until governments bless it as legal tender. But why would governments ever bless it since it removes their authority to control the money supply?

At some point the reality of that has to hit the investment demand. But I guess we have a lot of myopia to go before the "stampede to the exits" realization.

I think it's now going back down to were it should be... 
It's Btcchina's fault why it went up
After the ~400 crash, everyone was talking about trend reversal and going to the moon... So when btcchina insiders started buying coins to prepare for the LTC launch, lot's of sheeple panic bought and hold, thinking it's heading to the moon... hahaha 

It should be like this:


Not this:




Hahahaha! 

2000k/2000kk=0.001%

I was assuming 2 million users now and target penetration of 2 billion users => 0.1%.

It is true that most of the 2 million are not really "using" bitcoin now, so we cannot yet directly observe how world-changing Bitcoin is. This "land-grab phase" is designed to take us there.

Thanks, ... patience is a virtue 

Can't think too far ahead right now. If ~530 is broken, there is very little in the way of tested supports down to 400. I see 400s as likely, assuming we stay below 620s and continue to see such weak buy pressure. I see heavy resistance at 600 - 610. Directional bias is downward.

I think that would be correct, except the 0.1% seems too high (my guesstimate is 0.01-0.03% based on the prior analysis I did of your counting methods and also the Bitcoin market cap is not within an order-of-magnitude of that share of global net worth which is $250+ trillion). Most people coming in are investors and they will be motivated by potential gains. So the longer we are below trendline, the more rocket fuel has been loaded.

How much can the investment grow without a commensurate adoption for real commerce?

The chasm is an interesting concept. Because I was thinking that when we get to 100 million (1.5%) there should be great incentive for global (e.g. internet) merchants to cater to the large global market, so it should catapult from there. There may be a chasm (for those not coming in primarily as investors, i.e. the masses) where the 100 million or so are too spread out globally to drive merchants which tend to be more local in scope.

Thus I think the key is going to be some way of using crypto-currency in trade for something online that is very popular (because it can have global scope and the chasm won't be diluted by physical sparseness). I specifically have a business model in mind for this, w.r.t. to social networking. If I am correct to assume anonymity will be required for this, then Bitcoin isn't it. I am still evaluating this, so I am not sure about that.

Btw, Nadeem called this crash to $500 back in November and is calling for below $100 someday:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article43420.html
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/article44455.html


He can only be correct if we've already saturated investor adoption. I doubt it.

I have opened a long position at 575.... I think that there has been enough selling pressure released for many days on huobi. the selling on huobi was genuine, and no mistake. Now that the PBOC has pulled the statement and clarified their intentions, I think the market will have an upwards bias if the retracement lasts for considerable amount of time. Like MAbc says, uptrend will only be confirmed by 620, and for me 3700 would do, though I think this event is a manoeuvre, and a strategical turning point. when all the nubs that sold realise that they sold for nothing, they will likely buy back in.
It reminds me to some extent of the silk road closure. flash crash down, and steady recovery, swiftly passing into ATH - in which case we will see the reversal in the next 24 hours or less.