Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 329. (Read 907212 times)

This is a great point.  In the period June - October 2013 there were multiple threads and theories which explained very persuasively that BTC could not and would not post a new ATH until we reached the mythic 'capitulation' price, which IIRC was suggested to be USD60.  The rest as they say is history.

So, where does that leave us and where does it leave the validity of TA when applied to a market such as crypto.



Which falls on a Friday this year, too.  St Valentine's Day massacre? I think at least an exaggerated weekend dip is possible.




If you want to change people's behaviour, the best place to start is with your own.

gmaxwell confirms it : https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.5091537

It sounds like there's a fix to block the actual attack, instead of just working around it.

When you look at the actual issue, all we're going to get in the short term is a workaround. So if this comedian of an attacker wants to continue, then accepting 0-confs are out for a while, as well as spending change from transactions that didn't confirm yet. So it's not some network tragedy.

Long term, the core team have been slowly fixing parts of the issue already. But it's said to be a long way from stopping the mutant txs from being created at all, although this event will no doubt concentrate a bit of rumination on the solution. Price reaction seems appropriate IMO, if anything the continued attack defused the impact of the Gox statement a little, as it seems they were individually targeted as a way of spreading FUD about their financial condition. The withdrawals cancellation and broken protocol statement appeared as if Gox was misdirecting blame about their sketchy finances, but we know now that they could have been telling the truth. I'll believe that unreservedly when I successfully buy up coins with my remaining fiat at Gox and empty my account

Like others here, though, I wonder whether there won't be some follow up attack, using a completely different exploit. It would make sense if there's something available. Start with an unrewarding attack, then escalate to something harsher once the price reaction settles. It will be a good endorsement of the network architecture if that doesn't happen though. It's worth remembering that the the developers have issued several DOS fixes that were never exploited by anyone before they were patched.

haha ah now I understand

I presume he wants to buy cheaper Bitcoins

Isn't buying a good thing?

Relax... the ATMs are whale dispensors.
people on the street will take the hit if they are buying now.
looks like we will have a sale on bitcoin this week. 50% off

Yes they are, but last I heard the ATMs had to be suspended because Bitstamp would identify the withdrawals as spam and it would get delayed. This was a couple of weeks ago.

I don't know, possibly. Almost everything is linked to Bitstamp (a weakness). Would this cause million dollar purchases though?

are the ATMs linked to Bitstamp?

it doesn't look good. there's too much God damned buying in bitstamp. even with bitcoin withdrawal closed.

Similar situation here... I've cashed out very little since I've been accumulating, but plan to recoup my initial investment later this year whether the price is right or not. I just need to sleep better. That and I can realize a lower long term capital gains tax rate by waiting.

I know, those who expect a scheduled meteoric rise are in for disappointment. It may happen, it may not. I think it probably will, simple supply and demand tells us this. Bitcoin behaves very unpredictably so a huge bull market may be days, weeks or even years away.

No, quite the contrary. The smart ones are in it for the long haul. You won't be getting their coins, that's for sure. The coins you're getting now are the folks who bought in recently, or who don't properly understand Bitcoin, or are fearful of its long-term viability.

No, he is saying that people like you are making this forum a shithole.

Yeah, I totally agree. I have been complaining about this for weeks.  And it also begs my question to rpteila about the fact that FUD and panic seems to be more alive today then then.

But, I agree, now the stakes seem higher.

I wish they would reimplement the noobie rule to make it harder for people to join. But, oh well, whatever. Even this forum is all about the almighty $.

I was around then, and I'll just say that most of the fun has been sucked out of this forum. Sure there was panic, but not at the level and not in the style that you see today. Think about this for a minute: Last year the entire trading engine of MtGox, then the only exchange in town, lagged to hell and STOPPED when there was any significant trading activity. People lost money and it crashed the market multiple times.  In my view, that was worse than what we have today, which is an annoying technical blip in the radar in comparison, and the community took it with aplomb. Think what they would do today with that news.

Now that Bitcoin means big money, many of the smart, early speculators who saw the true potential of Bitcoin are gone. Instead we now have average Chicken Littles clogging up the forums, desperate to get their hands on cheap coins, fearful that time and price is going to pass them by.

It's pretty much an echo chamber of trolls, sock puppets, psychological manipulation and people talking their books. There is some good analysis in here, but it's hard to find, and even harder to trust.

BitchicksHusband has it easy.  We gave up celebrating Valentine's Day several years ago.  After a couple years of stressing out over getting reservations at nice restaurants only to end up waiting for over an hour to even be seated we both decided to never celebrate Valentine's Day again.  Or we just go out on a different night if we want.  I think many of his friends wonder how he convinced me that was a good idea?  I think I am just a little more logical than most women.  It doesn't hurt that I am the most frugal one in the family too!

@windjc lol really? I don't see how price is gonna drop just because of a small thing like that

I mean we were going thru christmas steady rising, didn't we?

I wasn't an active member in April/May, but I have read over the posts from the main thread at that time. I did not see the despair and confusion and trolling that I see now. I saw people reasonably excited about the fact that bitcoin was able to make it into another large growth curve for the first time in a couple of years. I saw people predicting $30, but that was almost 3 times higher than the year started. I do not remember reading anything much about attacks and the death of bitcoin or even the death of exchanges.