Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 330. (Read 907227 times)

If you are reasonably confident of Bitcoin's long-term success, then you are "hopeful" and have no reason to sell. Then the price stays high, and this is what we are experiencing. If large holders lose confidence, then they sell, and crash follows.

Based on my research, the # of coins in small holders' hands may be so small now that it cannot shake the markets. And if someone was here during the April bubble, he is not prone to panicking. In 2011 there was no precedent so even large holders panicked and price spiraled down.

Then there is the February 14, which alone is a reason to sell your coins NOW.

You have some really good points. I do not know where you are seeing the "everybody is still hopeful."  I mean, I am hopeful mainly because of the eco-system and the fairly positive response of US regulators. Besides that, even I, who am a "perma-bull" am not very hopeful of the current price. I feel fear. Others, if you have been watching closely, have either gone silent (Mbtac) or have said they are quitting. Plus there is a massive influx of trolls, with threads saying Bitcoin is going to die. DDosers smelled blood and went on the attack. Someone sold off 8000 BTC on btc-e. Crazy shit is going on everywhere.

You have some really good points. I do not know where you are seeing the "everybody is still hopeful."  I mean, I am hopeful mainly because of the eco-system and the fairly positive response of US regulators. Besides that, even I, who am a "perma-bull" am not very hopeful of the current price. I feel fear. Others, if you have been watching closely, have either gone silent (Mbtac) or have said they are quitting. Plus there is a massive influx of trolls, with threads saying Bitcoin is going to die. DDosers smelled blood and went on the attack. Someone sold off 8000 BTC on btc-e. Crazy shit is going on everywhere.

Mixed signals. Trendline suggests we are still high. Also the bottoms so far this week have been flashcrashes with quick rebounds. (This has not been a property of the prior final capitulations, rather of the beginning of them.) Not enough negative sentiment, everybody is still hopeful. Even goxbtc trades at higher than is realistic imo. There are also negative events that could still happen.

Feeling of fear is a good sign, but not yet the sign to buy if the price is not there.

This is what I mean by it feeling bottomy. I never felt like selling in any dips, but I do recall being nervous about what was happening when it was ~$2. Right now is the first time in ages that I have been having those similar feelings.

I am taking this as a personal indication that it's time to buy. It's terrifying buying into all this negative sentiment, but I figure that's where the best opportunities lie.

High price for a cheery consensus and all that.

I'm sure we'll look back at this thread when it hits 5 figures the same way we look back at all those single digit threads now.

Hm.. I am starting to feel the fear in me. But it is OK, I have coins in an exchange and I sell them. Then I have fiat and feel good

(It is better to sell while the price is high)

Everybody do according to their own emotions.

Just to throw another thought into the ring.. A few pages back someone mentioned that the flash crash yesterday was in ways a bit similar to the SR takedown and subsequent flash crash.

Remember what happened after that? We went on a rally. Support was proved, confidence was gained and it things got progressively more bullish.

I think we could be half-way there to having a similar outcome.

Gox is not gone yet, but it is dying. One after one, the voices in the bitcoin world came out and condemned it yesterday.

Coindesk removed it from its price index and many other similar operations followed suit.

It had been a bad joke for too long, everyone knew, but no-one quite knew the scale or the exact issue.

Yesterday cleared a lot of this up. They could still be insolvent too, we just don't know yet, but the community has seemed to turn it's back on Gox in a big way.
Good! They deserve it! But the job is only half done and there could be more bad (worse) news to come.

I guess my point is, much like the SR takedown helped to sanitise bitcoins image and proved support and increased confidence.

Yesterday's shenanigans could possibly have a similar effect. The general sentiment seems to be, Gox are assholes, shouldn't have said what they said, and they are to blame. Yes there is a flaw / bug in the protocol, but it is not new and has been known about for a long time. Their problems are their own fault.

We rebounded pretty quickly in my book. I sold a bit at 700 anticipating the dip.
We were back there in under 24 hours.
Sentiment looks good, in fact i'd say improved! Maybe we won't see $400 afterall.  

Could that have been the capitulation? Piggy backing on the news? Flash-capitulation anyone?

Hm.. I am starting to feel the fear in me. But it is OK, I have coins in an exchange and I sell them. Then I have fiat and feel good

(It is better to sell while the price is high)

Everybody do according to their own emotions.

Hm.. I am starting to feel the fear in me. But it is OK, I have coins in an exchange and I sell them. Then I have fiat and feel good

(It is better to sell while the price is high)

Everybody do according to their own emotions.

Risto, you still think btc will be at $300k in the future??

And also are you bullish or bearish now?

Could it now start to be looking like final capitulation or something? At least there is quite big volume for this past week and if you zoom enough out on the chart it looks like it just might have been long enough to go up. I tend to think that the cycles of rallies are getting faster and more close to each other and on 3day and 1week charts it looks something like last april and beyond that on faster speed?

Could it now start to be looking like final capitulation or something? At least there is quite big volume for this past week and if you zoom enough out on the chart it looks like it just might have been long enough to go up. I tend to think that the cycles of rallies are getting faster and more close to each other and on 3day and 1week charts it looks something like last april and beyond that on faster speed?

Bullshit, all bullshit. Big players want out. So they fake the market with the very USD that they received yesterday from the first wave of selling. How many times this has to happen before you realize? Ask Loaded for details, which he unfortunately cannot give you

It looks like more than just a rally. It's a huge fking bidwall, 8 million new dollars on the books, in front of the bottom, overnight. It just rose from a total of 15.5M to 16.5M as I was typing this, almost to ATH. Now the book looks completely warped into the bulls favor. How are you going to get through that? It's going to take an immense pressure, and that huge bid could be could be regenerating the whole time.

But instead they've decided to point fingers and spread the fud, knowing that it would cause a crash and damage their reputation even more.