Topic: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? - page 13. (Read 14504 times)

There is myth is Muslim countries specifically in Gulf that if you develop a strong army then it may take control of government like what's happening in Egypt and Pakistan or Bangladesh in the past. KSA along with other Gulf countries have strong intelligence system but very weak defense. There is no defense system in place that can protect invasion in Gulf countries. Kuwait has deployed USA army for its protection. USA troops in Kuwait earns alot as they get payment from USA government as well as from Kuwait government.

Yes, we love fakes like the time RQ170 was captured and it was all fake until Obama begged Iran to give it back and one of our toy companies sent them a toy replica of it instead. Or my favorite fake story was where the US marines were forced to their knees in Persian Gulf right before they started pissing their pants and crying like little girls on On January 12, 2016. It was so fake that these marines were court marshaled when they went back to US

 
"Iran said its navy is forcing a US submarine to surface as it enters the Persian Gulf." Again. IRAN stated. Not the US or a representative of the other party. And Iran, which loves fakes, like North Korea and Russia. These are fake countries that say to themselves how great and "terrible" they are.
I will give a couple more examples that you will definitely believe in
North Korea:
- Launched her astronaut into the sun. After landing in the sun, he flew back to North Korea.
- The World Cup in recent years, all won by the national team of Korea Server. And in the final matches, the players from North Korea, as always, defeated the US team with a basketball score
Russia:
- Russia has the largest and most stable economy!
- Russia has the second army of the world
- All the weapons of Russia are unparalleled and NATO is shaking and afraid of it
- Ukraine will be taken in 2-3 weeks
- Russia's sanctions will not only not bring damage, but will help!
- Without Russian gas and oil, the West will cease to exist, and the EU will freeze


Well, this nonsense can be continued for an extremely long time, do you really like this?

Well, so that you know - the Russian northern fleet went out to the ocean a couple of weeks ago, it was I who drove him there from the parking lots! And Russia simply hid it by passing it off as exercises! It's all true, don't you believe it?!

Yes it's the new crown Prince MBS that is breaking ice in whole KSA. From opening night clubs in KSA to giving women permission to drive, MBS has revolutionised the whole KSA. KSA shaking hand with Iran and Syria is considered to be biggest change in KSA foreign policy. If Europe can live in peace after WW2 then why not these Arab counties can stay in peace.


KSA is one of biggest importer of arms but there military performance in every combat is a drastic failure and this is story of all Gulf countries. Qatar spent 200 billion usd for fifa world cup but they don't have adequate security personal for the job. Result is they imported troops from different countries like Pakistan for security.

Russia has driven itself into a dead end, from which it will have to get out for years, and maybe decades. Because of the attack on Ukraine and the blackmailing of European countries with the reduction of oil and gas supplies, Russia itself found itself in a trap.
In the first quarter of this year, Gazprom supplied only 6 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe, while in the same period last year this figure amounted to 62 billion cubic meters. Over the past year, the share of Russian "blue fuel" in the European market has decreased from 45% to 7.5%.

The leadership of this Russian company threatened Europe that the price of gas in winter could reach $4,000 per thousand cubic meters. Russian President Vladimir Putin also frightened the Europeans with high gas prices. However, in the last two months, gas in Europe has been trading at $460-570 per 1,000 cubic meters (€40-50/MWh), which has led to lower electricity prices. This was due to the influx of LNG, accelerating the transition to renewable energy and improving energy efficiency.

At the same time, after losing the European market, Russia is forced to sell gas to China at huge discounts. For example, in the second quarter of 2022, gas was sold to the Chinese side at $250 per thousand cubic meters, while fuel cost about $1,000 on European exchanges.

It's a matter of accepting defeat. They couldn't fight the poorest country in West Asia, Yemen after 8 years and with the full support of NATO only because Yemen had a single friend called Iran. Same with Syria, Qatar, Iraq, etc.
They had to accept defeat at some point, specially after in only 1 hour their oil production was cut in half back in September 2019 when Yemenis retaliated hard against their invaders' infrastructure.

As they say necessity is the mother of invention. Although I may be biased but I wouldn't say shoulder to shoulder because US military technology is mostly fake and in some cases very outdated. In a lot of fields when you actually compare the two, the US military technology looks more like a joke. Like in the missiles field. There a bunch of factors but in the accuracy alone the Iranian missiles have an error of about 1 meter per 1000 km range while US missiles have an accuracy of about 100 meters per 1000 km range! Of course 1 meter is the official release but it feels like an understatement when we have satelite images like this: https://ibb.co/5nn2PD4 from the US airbase where the Iranian missile has hit the bullseye.

From what I gather the reason is because the military sector in USA has turned into a business that milks the government for outrageous amount of funds to produce ultra expensive products that aren't even up to the standards.

Take Lockheed Martin. They milked US government for hundreds of billions of dollars in early 2000's for 10 years to return multiple failed project until they produced an aircraft that they called "The Beast". That is RQ-170 and it was supposed to be stealth.
Long story short US Intelligence thinking it is the most advanced stealth aircraft to that date tried using it over Iran for spying, little did they know that the moment it crossed Iranian border on 2011-12-4, this multi-billion dollar project would easily be hacked and then safely landed and captured by Armed Forces of Iran which would then continue to reverse engineer and mass produce it with a dozen variations at super cheap prices

There are lots of examples too: RQ-4C which USN had 3 of, F35 which is the biggest failure among fighter jets, Patriot and THAAD systems that are a joke among air defense systems, USVs that regularly get lost and hacked at sea, etc.

The new king (Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud) is quite intelligent and he refuses to be a slave of the United States. It was just a matter of time before the Saudis realize that they are being used as the lapdogs by the United States. As a result they are improving the cooperation between Iran and it's allies such as Syria. Also, they have helped Russia in difficult times, by agreeing to a crude oil production cut. And Russia is not exporting huge quantities of diesel to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, where they are being rebranded and re-exported. 

Situation is middle east is changing altogether. KSA after negotiating with Iran now shakes hands with Syria. KSA making peace means all Gulf countries doing the same. KSA has also shown tilt towards Russia and China which is clear indication that KSA is looking for new alliance. But if KSA moves away from USA then what will happen to KSA billions of dollars residing in USA banks ?

It's amazing to know that Iran has such technology or they have such combat experience that they can make USA nuclear powered submarine to surface. For decades Iran has been isolated because of USA sanctions and despite that Iran is standing shoulder to shoulder with USA in military technology.

Remember the submarine news? It is the nuclear-powered Ohio-class called USS Florida and Iran just forced it to surface as it entered the Persian Gulf region. CENTCOM will probably deny this ever happened since as I said the news from couple of days ago was supposed to have domestic use, if American tax payers realize the junk they sent to West Asia is not even useful things could get ugly domestically...
https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/iran-says-its-navy-forces-us-submarine-to-surface-as-it-enters-the-gulf-1.95244912

P.S. What they don't tell is the stealth Iranian submarines that shadow them and monitor all their movements and communications 24/7

How about you stop with the disinformation, seriously, stop!

The same parroting about 2020 prices is really getting old, every propagandist here takes the 2020 gas prices as a reference but forgets to mention why gas was cheap then. Funny thing, they forget also to mention that oil trading now at $80 is ....drums.. 120$ dollars more expensive than it was in 2020!
So let's once and for all deal with this whole crap!

Dutch TTF is right now trading at 42E/ MW, it's high against 2020 value but if you go back beyond that period you will see it's nowhere that expensive:
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/TGJ23/performance?mode=monthly

For example, if we go for a 10 years period so before the invasion of Crimea you will see that the price was, what a surprise
so it's not 3 or 4 times more expensive but only 60%.

But!!, it doesn't stop there the 42E/MW is just Dutch TTF, the prices for LNG are different:
https://aegis.acer.europa.eu/terminal/price_assessments
And as you can see LNG trades right now:
at a 7.8 Eurous DISCOUNT against pipeline gas!
This also means that the US is selling cheaper LNG than gas coming from Russia, Algeria, or via Turkish pipelines.

So let's do simple math and put the 27.35 price at which EU was buying Russian gas in 2013 against the LNG prices now at 35 and you got one big whooping, oh wait, it's not 3x is just 30% increase. And what a surprise, even Russia admitted this before the war, this is from 2018, so before the war
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/energy-diplomacy/us-lng-price-up-to-40-higher-than-russian-gas-novak/20225
Of course, it was even by then manipulation but at those time they had to be at least decent so he only said what the minimum decency allowed him to say.

Now to address the other of your concern.
Europe was importing 155 billion cubic meters of Gas, there is a single gas pipeline that transports gas to China at a 25 million capacity!
How have they switched selling gas from Europe to China? Simply, they haven't!


That 2022 number includes the two months before the war and another 6 months in which Yamal worked.

So next time, rather than regurgitating the stupid Russian propaganda, look for facts!
Otherwise, you will have the same shock as commies had when the USSR went bust because till that moment they were sure the USA is in a civil war, western Europe is dying of hunger just to find out there were more washing machines in Bremen than in all of Russia!

^^^ I don't know from where you get this story of Russia selling it's crude at $35 per barrel. At this point, the Indian refiners are purchasing Urals at very close to the market rate. The FOB price is around $65, and another $20 per barrel gets added to it in the form of freight and insurance. So in total we are paying around $85 per barrel for the Urals crude. The crude from Saudi costs around $92 per barrel, including freight and insurance. So the difference is now very minimal. And although some of the banks are refusing to make the payments, there are plenty of alternate options available.   

"Reuters learned that an Indian bank does not make payments for Russian oil
Reuters: India's state-owned bank stops making payments for oil at prices above $60 "ceiling"
Bank of Baroda, which is majority owned by the Indian government, has refused to service payments for Russian oil purchased at a price above the "ceiling" of $60. Russia has banned deliveries to countries that impose cap prices"

One of the reasons why the price of Urals suddenly "jumped up to 60+ dollars" is an attempt to hide the wild corruption in the energy sector in India. The root of the problem is that corrupt officials at the very top of India's government are buying Urals at a price of $30-35 per barrel. Some are resold with a slight margin wholesale. But everything else turns into gasoline and diesel for the "beloved population", which is told fairy tales that oil is very expensive. And in a country with 1+ billion people, they will earn on fuel - this is heaven on earth!

But dissatisfaction began, information about the real state of affairs began to leak out and it “smelled of burning”, which means that we urgently need to make the picture realistic. The scheme is extremely simple - any contract price is indicated that is needed to "calm the people", and even $ 500 per barrel (people will believe it), and ... on paper, everything matches, and then something called "kickback" happens when buying something at an obviously inflated price! You underestimate Indian corruption and "caring" leadership

PS Dear Sithara007 - you yourself told me not long ago "you are wrong - oil in India cannot cost $ 30, because the price of gasoline is as high as it was with an oil price of $ 100"! Or is this "not the case"?

It seems bad news to those who say the Russian economy is collapsing because Russia can only sell oil and gas to Europe. And Europe no longer needs Russian energy, so Russia's economy will soon collapse and will lose badly in the war. Europe was fortunate to be able to fill their gas reserves by the winter of 2022. But I wonder what will happen to them this winter when they are importing LNG from the US as an ally, and the US is selling at four times the market price.

Russia supplied a large portion of Europe's gas for many years, which provides both heat and electricity to much Europe. After sanctions were imposed on Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine, Russia began limiting the amount of gas it sent to Europe. India, which has emerged as the biggest customer of Russian oil, in January imported a record 1.4 million bpd of the community a more then 9 percent rise from December. India's imposts of thermal coal in 2022 rose nearly 15 percent to 161.18 million tones.

Russian crude oil imports to India has hit a new record, with almost 2.1 million barrels per day being imported in March 2023. This number was 1.6 million in January and 1.9 million in February. Now Russian imports account for almost 50% of the total Indian crude oil imports. Apart from the Urals grade, Indian refiners are also importing other grades such as ESPO and Varandey. On the other hand, Indian imports from OPEC nations such as Iraq and Saudi Arabia has gone down drastically. And Urals is now trading at $66 per barrel (much above the price cap imposed by G7 nations).

https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/a-russian-oil-revolution-but-rising-prices-could-scupper-sweet-deal/cid/1930347

That is not even comparable. Ukraine is under occupation for the second year while Palestine is under occupation for the 75th. The genocide in Palestine over this period is also not even close to any other genocide in human history.

When Ukraine map and its occupied regions started to look like this you can start comparing the two:

Well, what else can you say? If you tell the truth, it will be "descreditation", "spreading lies" - and on the bunk for 5-7 years!

I cannot say that all of Russia is a swamp without normal conditions. It's stupid to deny it, and besides, I'm not a representative of the Russian side to stupidly lie, as it should be with the "mouthpieces of the Russian world"

In Moscow, for example, life is "in full swing", there is money, there are "elites". In St. Petersburg, too, in general, it is not bad. True, they say in some situations, someone turns off all the cameras in the city, and then all sorts of incomprehensible events ....

But a little further - and it is no longer so beautiful, and not so comfortable ... The province of Russia is degrading very much, the Russians themselves do not hide this, which is why many are making plans to "go to Moscow."
And there are places where they simply do not know what a normal life is. Moreover, this does not apply to villages and farms, but to ordinary cities. The mayors of some cities are already openly saying "there is nothing to steal from us anymore"

Or take service in a terrorist army, in a terrorist war against Ukraine? I personally spoke with a Russian prisoner of war. And to a simple question - "what the hell did you come to our country to kill us", you know what this resident of Chita answered? I tell - “What should I do? I have a family, a wife, children, sick parents, but there is no work or 20,000-40,000 rubles, but I can’t live on them! they gave it, and they won't give it anymore That is, the degradation of life has reached such a "bottom" that "people" are ready to go to kill innocent people in a foreign country in order to feed themselves and their families! Ie also moral degradation of the highest level. And this process of degradation is gaining momentum, and sooner or later it will come to you. But - sorry, if you didn’t run away to Uzbekistan, then you, as a male, the road outside Russia is already closed - thank the federation council You can only go to Ukraine, though most likely it will be one-way

In total - in the title of this topic it is quite possible to leave only the inscription "Suicide of Russia" ....

PS Well, congratulations - the service of electronic public services - did you manage to delete it ?!

If you are satisfied, that's good, no one is telling you to leave Russia. One can feel well in absolutely every country, depends on his/her personal needs, income, etc. But I try to draw an overall image for you, to show you the reasons, why Ukraine chooses West over Russia.

I don't overestimate the role of economic indicators, they are just as important, if not more, that's reality.
When I see immigrants from post soviet-union countries, who do shitty jobs illegally for 12 hours or even more a day and his money is briefly enough for food, when an old man can't live on pension and has no other choice but to work in order to have a food and money for medicine, you can't say that economic indicators are overestimated.

I live in Russia and I am satisfied with the quality of life in my country. I had the opportunity to choose some other country for permanent residence, but I rejected this idea. It seems to me that you greatly overestimate the role of economic indicators, after reaching a certain standard of living, other priorities come to the fore, for example, culture, language environment, etc.

I wrote my previous message to show the difference in the scale and volume of military and military conflicts that are taking place in Ukraine and Palestine. Of course, human life is the same price in any country. But the scale of the genocide and atrocities that the Russians are now perpetrating against the Ukrainians is clearly unparalleled in any country. The criminal Kremlin authorities are trying to cover up the mass torture and murder in Ukraine and therefore turn their attention to other countries. Nobody prevents the Palestinians from raising their problems in international institutions, as Ukraine does. But it would be completely wrong to say that Ukraine should not raise the topic of military aggression by Russia, because something similar is happening in other countries.