Topic: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? - page 15. (Read 14450 times)

Dear Sithara007! Many thanks to you and all the people of India for your support of Ukraine in the destruction of the new brown plague - RASHISM!

India has approved the transfer of several hundred Milan anti-tank systems of various modifications to Ukraine.
There are two extremely important points in this message. And not only the number of Milan ATGMs is striking, but the fact that India decided to transfer them. The country on which puten relies on partnership and cooperation.

Until the winter season of 2023-2024, Russia still needs to live. After all, the situation for the Russian economy continues to deteriorate every month. Over the three months of this year, the Russian budget deficit increased to the levels that were planned for the whole of 2023.
Already, even Putin, at a meeting with members of the government, admitted that the sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation because of the war could adversely affect the state of affairs in the country's economy. Until autumn, the situation in Russia will worsen many times over.

As for the weather, scientists predict a further rise in temperature on the planet. Apparently, there will be no more severe winters in Europe in the near future.

Another article on the European dependence on Russian LNG:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-03-28/europe-s-gas-buyers-can-t-quit-russian-lng

The figures show that EU increased its imports of Russian LNG by 30% during 2022. Now they have a very strange situation. Previously, they used to purchase pipeline gas from Russia at $100 to $200 per thousand cubic meters. Now they are purchasing LNG from the same country, at 3x the original price. Russia is not going to complain anyway, as long as they are getting the payments. And winter was mild during 2022. I don't expect the same for 2023. If winter is harsh, then once again the gas prices will touch record levels achieved during August 2022.

Sorry, but your behavior really resembles the tantrum of a little girl offended by the whole world, who wants to answer something, but the intellectual level is still not enough, but I really want to say the word "offensive"
Your answer would sound more logical if it were: "Wheel, banana, caliper, 19, cup, North Pole!" ))

LOGIC should be in the answer? Where is the logic ? ))

Which Paraguay? And here Paraguay to the Second World War? And what does Paraguay have to do with lend-lease in 1941? And here is the poverty of Paraguay, its wars of the 18th century, to Ukraine today?! Let's say something else about the Stone Age? By the way, this will be very relevant for Russia - the Stone Age is its prospect
At least because it is Russia that today has the largest losses of the able-bodied / productive population, which, like sheep, goes to the slaughter in the east of Ukraine! Where they are simply shot like targets in a shooting range And the second half of the "great Russians" - cowardly flees from Russia, runs in millions! And this is also a fact! Which you yourself know very well, but are trying to deny the reality, because it's a shame to realize that you lost and ahead of you is the same example with Paraguay

During War of the Triple Alliance, it is estimated that Paraguay lost 69% of its total population. If you apply the same ratio to Ukraine, you will get 25 million dead people, which is almost equal to the total number of deaths the USSR suffered during WW2. There were several indirect consequences as a result of the war. One consequence was the destruction of the Spanish-speaking population in Paraguay. Guarani speakers became the majority as a result of high losses suffered by the Spanish speakers and that situation prevails to this day. In Ukraine, the situation is exactly the opposite. Ukrainian army is using ethnic minorities as cannon fodder (Russians, Hungarians and Romanians), in order to make Ukraine a mono-ethic state.

And why is it useful for Ukrainians to learn the lesson of the Paraguayan war you cited, in which the Paraguayans lost 90 percent of the male population? It seems to me that it is the Russians who should think about such a lesson now. Having already an acute shortage of armored vehicles, they are now attacking the Ukrainians without proper support and are suffering heavy losses in manpower. So, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, if from the beginning of the invasion - on February 24 and until the end of the year, that is, in more than ten months, the Russians lost about 100,000 military personnel killed, then from the beginning of this year, that is, in less than three months, their losses already amount to over 71,000 people. If they continue to wage this senseless war of conquest at such a pace, they may lose men just like the Paraguayans.

  By the way, the Chinese are already waiting and ready to provide all possible assistance to Russian women. Moreover, they are hard-working, not drunkards. Russian women may well accept such help from the neighboring people.

Such a great connoisseur of history as you, of course, also knows the Paraguayan War of 1864-1870 against the triple alliance of Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay. Paraguay then lost up to 90% of the male population and suffered a crushing defeat, from which it has not recovered to this day, the consequences of that suicidal aggression are felt in Paraguay even after 150 years, it is one of the poorest countries in Latin America. I think it is useful for every Ukrainian to learn this historical lesson.

1. The real number of casualties in the Second World War on the side of the USSR can only be guessed at the moment.
2. You took one of the models, and only those who died and only in the period from 1941 to 1945. The Second World War began in 1939, and the Soviet Union was already suffering losses... Destroying Europe together with friendly Germany. I'll just give examples: terrorist wars in Poland, Finland, Romania, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia... People DIED there too.
3. You did not consider the so-called secondary losses are invalids, mutilated, all those who could not continue a full life. And which the USSR forgot. Yes Yes. After the war, there were a huge number of disabled people on the streets of the cities, which we expect. Even with 25 million dead and injured according to statistics - approximately x3, i.e. 75 (!!!!) million people. Yes, not everyone became fully disabled - but many, because At that time, the USSR used its characteristic practice of "throwing the bodies of its soldiers at the enemy." There were several million "full-fledged" disabled people, which was also not a small number. But in the period of 1948-1950, all of them were "quietly" taken outside the cities, where they practically all died within a couple of years without normal medicine. Why was it taken away? And "so as not to spoil the picture" - Stalin did not like legless/armless soldiers on boards, which he and the generals hated....

Well, the most important thing is that you write only about the repressions of Stalin's time and only political ones.
And now I will remind you about the "red terror" of Lenin's time. When people were killed just for the sake of killing.
You forgot about the deliberate Holodomors that swept through Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan and other "republics". These were targeted processes of "quiet" destruction of the civilian population. Then, almost 5 million civilians, mostly rural, died in Ukraine alone.
You bypassed the topic of "great resettled peoples", when the peoples of the Caucasus, for example, were simply deported (without their belongings and everything they had acquired) to the far northern regions of the RSFSR, and where those who remained and were alive after the "resettlement" worked in the wildest conditions until their death. What is essentially a premeditated murder through slave labor. Millions of civilians also died from this "process". And all the documents now continue to be hidden, they are all in Russia under the label of "secrecy"

4. And about "all losses". Even the official statistics of the false USSR speak of the national composition of the dead:
Russian 5,756,000 66.402% (of the TOTAL number of dead)
Ukrainians 1,377,400 15.890% (of the TOTAL number of dead)

As for the population of the republics, it will be:
RSFSR - 99 million in 1939, or approximately 5.2%
Ukrainian SSR - 24 million in 1939, or approximately 5.8%


At the same time, the territory of the Ukrainian SSR, "thanks to the skillful resistance organized by the Soviet government", almost all industry and most of the cities were completely destroyed. Moreover, many objects were destroyed on the orders of the Kremlin itself, allegedly to "harm the advancing troops." As a result, the infrastructure, OWN citizens, OWN troops were destroyed with their own hands, but not a single occupier was injured. These are also facts!

According to Timothy D. Snyder, Stalin alone alone killed more than 9 million and more than half of this number consisted of ethnic Russians. On top of that, most of the 27 million deaths suffered by the USSR during WW2 resulted from stupid policies of Stalin. And a large share of this 27 million consisted of very young men, and therefore the actual losses in the long run were much more amplified. In Belarus 25% of the population was wiped out as a result of WW2, while in Ukraine the death rate was 16%.

I have never denied this!
There are many more examples. But I am not ready to challenge or insist on the truth of my views on the history of other countries where I have not lived. To do this, you need to seriously and comprehensively immerse yourself in history, study the causes and consequences.
But I perfectly know the history of Muscovy/USSR/modern space of post-USSR and modern Russia.
But here I’ll still add - that the victims of Muscovy, and then Russia, and then the USSR, and then Russia - were many tens of millions of those killed! Perhaps more - in Muscovy / Russia it has always been customary to hide or distort their "history", embellishing themselves and denying the crimes committed, often attributing their crimes to completely different people.
And what's for sure - hundreds of millions of people became victims - both physical destruction and ideological / political and other terror!
A little higher, the respected Smartprofit writes about empires, and it’s hard to disagree with him. But today, with such a "wild imperial concept", in fact, there is only one country left - Russia ...

...and if we'll rewind some more, there was a similar sad story of Native Americans and their brutal slaughter by the "peaceful pilgrims". It was much bloodier if compared to the history of Russia. And btw, communists killed more Russians than representatives of other nationalities: from 1920s to 1950s around 4 million people got deported and ~700k executed.

I already wrote that I am a supporter of the ban on the study of history at school.... 

I recently read a book by renowned futurist Alvin Toffler and she convinced me that this is absolutely necessary.  Alvin Toffler wrote that in today's schools, children are taught the past, not the future. 

Meanwhile, people should aspire to the future, and when analyzing the past, always ask yourself two questions - What good thing that was before can be realized in the future?  What can be improved?  The past matters only as a basis for the future. 

Example.  How to make Russia become an integral part of Europe?  How can Russian natural gas improve the future of Europe and humanity?  Here are the questions I think should be asked.

It is clear that a ban on Russian gas will have an economically negative impact on both Russia and the European Union.... 

And I study history not by textbooks, but by reading fiction novels.  Of course, when I read Jaroslav Hasek's novel about the adventures of the good soldier Schweik, it may surprise me at first that Romania was part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.  And after a while, I begin to understand that before the 20th century there were no nation-states, but there were Empires, and nationalism within these Empires manifested itself mainly at the everyday level, when representatives of some regions hit representatives of other regions in the face. 

However, when nation-states began to emerge en masse in the 20th century, it became necessary to create a separate history for each of the newly formed nations.  But I'm not interested in this, because all this is aimed at awakening the base primitive instincts in people (the principle - "Own - Alien"). 

Personally, I consider myself a representative of the human race of living beings and do not identify myself with any nation, because this is a return to the past, but we must go to the future, when all people will unite and jointly explore outer space (this is a global task for all Humanity).

I'm sorry - but I'll correct you, in some places you are mistaken.

In the beginning, there was no USSR Muscovy was in that place, more precisely in part of the territory.
And some territories, for example Moldova, were in 1940 .. stolen from Romania. Yes, yes, the theft of foreign lands, under various pretexts, is not an invention of modern Russia ... Look for historical facts using the phrase "Soviet occupation of Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina."

In the same way - and most of the other republics, since 1921 they were simply occupied by Muscovy / RSFSR.
Until 1921, for example, there was the Ukrainian Independent Republic, with territories including Taganrog, part of the Belgorod region, and the entire Kuban, which were then torn off and stolen by the RSFSR.

The second important misconception is that "there are a lot of Russians there." This is not true. Indeed, sometimes there may be an opinion that "there are many Russians in many republics of the USSR." But in fact, there are many Russians in the territories of the occupied independent states. And they appeared there after, from 1930 to 1954, the Kremlin ghouls destroyed the local population, culture, evicted hundreds of thousands of citizens of other "fraternal republics" to the wild north of Russia. And in their place they settled their own citizens from the depressive territories of the RSFSR. More precisely, and more correctly, from most of the territories of the RSFSR, since most of the RSFSR were indeed depressive territories, with a degraded population.

So there was a deliberate forced assimilation, or, correctly, the occupation and destruction of the local population and replacement by aliens. This is history, these are facts.

Speaking of problems for Europe, the protests across Europe are getting worse specifically in France where the new retirement rules was the last straw that broke the camel's back. Some stats are putting the number of protesters at 3.5 million with dozens killed, and thousands wounded and maimed in these protests because of the police brutality. Of course the official stats only talk about the 441 police officers that were injured.

I watched this program. If you listen carefully to the entire text, then there is a subtle point, he says that he will express his opinion.
But there is another piece of information. To begin with, I will explain one nuance that can create an incorrect perception and assessment of the future.
You should understand that the oil market is now essentially divided into 2 channels:
- the world market where the price of Urals is approximately 50 dollars (information is available in open sources), and there are no prices of 70-75 dollars The second brand of Russian oil is slightly more expensive, but its share in the total sales volume is quite small.

- the "grey" market, where Russia sells excess oil, which was formed after the embargo and restrictions were introduced. Why is it a series? Because neither China nor India buys this oil according to the first scheme! Why? Because they understand that Russia does not store surplus oil anywhere (Russia does not have the infrastructure to store large reserves), and there is no one to sell it to (embargo and the stigma of terrorists), then there is an ADDITIONAL discount on this lot, as was announced by traders from China. I do not think that India will not use the option to earn extra good money

By the way, it is not entirely correct to say that the market is now controlled by sellers. The price of Russian oil fell below even the established limit, the gap with standard oil brands increased, and Russia does not influence the price in any way, although it VERY much wants to. This suggests that there may be normal sellers and they control the market, but it is not a rogue country.

Would you like such a future for your country - division into independent states, bloody civil wars, external occupation, reparations, etc.? 

At the same time, without any purpose and without any hope for a positive future (even after 100 years).  No one will voluntarily choose such a future for themselves. 

Therefore, all the scenarios you listed are very unlikely. 

Everyone remembers the collapse of the USSR and the 1990s that followed, everyone sees the disasters of Ukraine, so none of the Russians will choose such a development of events for themselves. 

Ideally, Ukraine and Russia would have to completely isolate themselves from each other, cutting off all contacts, but this had to be done immediately after the Maidan, and now everything is tied into a dead knot and the opponents will no longer be able to stop and cannot stop strangling each other, since  death is guaranteed at the end of the fight. 

This is the problem.  That's why everything is so hopeless....

In the modern world, victory is not necessarily a victory - it is the seizure of the capital, the public execution of the president in the central square and the signing of the capitulation.
I will repeat once again - Putin's status as an international criminal is not just an entry in his personal file. This is quite a clear sign to the Russian elites and Putin's opponents - you can destroy it, create a new government that will accept the conditions of a developed world, including reparations payments, punished war criminals, and so on. And it will work, it's only a matter of time, because time is now happy against Putin, and against the economy of the Russian Federation, and in general against the Russian Federation....


Speaking of Iraq - yes, this is one of the scenarios for reparations payments - Russia will be divided into several zones, under external control, resource zones will be mined and supplied to hubs with oil and gas, sales control will be external, as well as the return of part of the income from the sale to the receiving countries reparation payments. But no one will restore and invest money in Russia until its complete division into independent states!

I don't know about other countries. But here in India, most of the oil from Russia is moved through two "ghost" companies - Gatik Ship Management and Fractal Shipping, which are based in the United Arab Emirates. The first one purchased a total of 50 oil tankers in the last 12 months, while the latter mopped up 26. They have one office each in India, but these offices exist only on paper. Similarly, a large part of the imports to China are moved through another ghost company called Paramount DMCC. Russian nationals either fully or partially own these companies and pocket most of the profits from the proceedings.

For the sake of European economy you should hope not.
In a world where the cost of energy is directly and significantly affecting the economy and the competition, if India and China are indeed receiving "super cheap" energy that gives both these countries a massive edge to take over more of the global market out of the hands of Europeans which would consequently deindustrialize Europe even more and put the whole region into a deeper recession in the coming years.

In early December last year, the FT wrote that Russia was actively buying up used tankers in order to bypass the oil price ceiling. Then it was about more than a hundred medium-sized tankers.

Your picture of the world is significantly divorced from reality, recently you yourself admitted that you live in 2086. I advise you not to abuse psychoactive substances.