Topic: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? - page 16. (Read 14504 times)

Where did you get the information that these shipments are carried out by Russian carriers and that we are talking about Russian tankers? 

Offshore vessels for the transport of hydrocarbons are usually leased.  The production and maintenance of such tankers is a very difficult task, since after each voyage they must be thoroughly cleaned, fire safety rules must be carefully observed, and sometimes a large-scale modernization of the vessel is required ...

This is a very difficult task, and I am not sure that Russian companies have  something to do with this business. 

In my picture of the world, these are the net losses of the Russian side, which even the high price of hydrocarbons cannot compensate for. 

At the same time, if it were peacetime now, then the prices for oil and natural gas would still be high due to the monetary policy of quantitative easing, which was carried out by the Central Banks of most countries of the world....

I would say that the expenses did not increase many times over, but the incomes of Russian carriers (operating under a neutral flag) and insurers (operating through offshore companies in the UAE) increased many times over.

Currently, the most popular opinion on the Internet is that India and China are now buying hydrocarbons from Russia at a deep discount.  Is this true? 

Andrei Movchan (a well-known financier of Russian origin, now living in London) made an attempt to understand this issue.  To do this, he invited an expert to his program - a practitioner who specializes in oil and natural gas trading and knows the situation in this market very well.  The conclusions of this expert were unexpected for Andrei Movchan himself. 

It turned out that China and India receive hydrocarbons from Russia at practically market prices (at the same time, these prices are quite high at present).  Russia also incurs losses (additional costs), but these losses are not from the low sale price, but from the increased costs of maritime transportation. 

These expenses of the Russian side have increased many times over. 

Why didn't India and China take advantage of the situation and demand that Russia sell hydrocarbons at a discount?  Everything is very simple. 

Currently, the hydrocarbon market is still a supplier market, not a buyer market.  The traditional suppliers of hydrocarbons to India and China (USA and Arab countries) switched to the supply of oil and natural gas to the countries of the European Union. 

And India and China are now forced to buy hydrocarbons from Russia and they do not have the opportunity to demand a price reduction.

Most of the available supply of Urals get scooped up by India and Turkey, leaving hardly anything for China. China imports around 1 million barrels per day through the ESPO pipeline (capacity at 1.6 million barrels per day). The prices are contracted w.r.t the benchmark Brent prices. Supplies that are not sold to China, are transported to other countries through the port of Kozmino. China consumes most of the minor grades, such as Sakhalin Blend, Sokol, Novy Port and Siberian Light.

According to Chinese government data, the average price of Russian crude for the month of 2023 February was $73 per barrel. India gets crude at a much cheaper rate than China, because prices are not tied to long-term contracts.

Let me remind you once again - Chinese traders give information on the Urals - for about 30 dollars, provided that the freight and other expenses are paid by the RUSSIAN side. This condition was established by the Chinese side regarding purchases of "excess oil". China has its informants in the upper echelons of the country's power, and it perfectly understands how many storage facilities Russia has, what real production is and the situation in the oil and gas sector. Therefore, it is easy to manipulate Kremlin criminals, in the area of favorable prices for China.

ESPO is slightly more expensive, but its production and sales volumes are many times lower than those of Urals.

Observing the picture of prices for petroleum products in India, more precisely for derivatives - gasoline and diesel, I am increasingly coming to the opinion that this is an ordinary manipulation of data on the Indian market, so that someone simply earns more by showing the common man an allegedly high purchase price. Thus misleading people who do not want to simply check the data, thereby making huge markups! It happens

You hit the nail on the head when you said that the hypothetical scenario you outlined is exceedingly implausible. Frankly, it sounds more like a scene straight out of a Tinseltown blockbuster than anything that could occur in the real world. I agree with you that a long-term war of attrition is the most probable outcome, one that will ultimately drain the gene pool and economy of both nations.

However, I disagree that no one would subsequently rebuild the destroyed cities and industrial complexes. On the contrary, this could lead to what economists refer to as "creative destruction," whereby new and superior infrastructure and industries emerge from the ashes of the old. Throughout history, we have seen this happen, from the post-World War II reconstruction of Europe to the rebirth of New York City's downtown area after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

I do acknowledge that the more extended the conflict drags on, the more ruinous it becomes for both parties. The Roman Empire's wise decree banning prolonged warfare with the same foe was intended to prevent both sides from becoming too familiar with each other's tactics and strengths. It is disheartening that current politicians have yet to learn this valuable lesson and continue to engage in protracted battles that inflict untold misery and devastation.

Private refineries here in India have already published the data regarding Russian crude imports. The FOB price for Russian crude ranged from $45 to $50 per barrel for Urals and ~$70 for ESPO. Discount for Urals is ~$35 per barrel, and that for ESPO is ~$10 per barrel. However the actual discount received by refineries stand at $15 per barrel for Urals. Because freight and insurance, which used to cost $5 per barrel before the war now costs as much as $30 per barrel. And Russian ghost companies based in the United Arab Emirates are taking care of freight/insurance, and the profits flow back to their offshore bank accounts.

In order for Russia to pay reparations to Ukraine, Ukraine must storm the Russian capital (Moscow) and sign an act of surrender in Red Square.  In my opinion, this is a very unlikely scenario. 

At present, given the dynamics of ongoing events, the most likely scenario is the complete depletion of the gene pool and the economy of both countries as a result of a long-term positional war of attrition. 

Some people will leave the territories affected by hostilities and integrate into the economy of other countries (as immigrants), some will die.  With this option, no one will subsequently restore the destroyed cities and industrial complexes. 

The situation is similar to the situation with Iraq - no one is going to restore the destroyed Iraq, although oil continues to be produced on its territory. 

In the Roman Empire, at the level of the law, it was forbidden to fight for more than a year with the same enemy.  This was done so that the enemy did not learn how to fight.  The fact is that as a result of a long-term war, the parties learn from each other the art of war, and as a result, the war can drag on for a very long time, destroying the very foundations of the state. 

The ancient Romans knew this, but modern politicians do not.

Ukraine plans to launch nuclear fuel production next year. Therefore, this period is not so long, even if something does not work out and it will be postponed for some more time.

And European countries have already quite successfully broken their dependence on Russian oil and gas supplies. This process is also not fast, but it is running and there is no doubt that it will be done.

Yes, after this war, Ukraine will have to recover for a long time. But world states are going to help her in this. This has its positive aspects, since in many respects it will have to be built and restored from scratch, and this will be done using new technologies, which will lead to the growth of the Ukrainian economy and an increase in the standard of living of Ukrainians. And Russia will have to pay reparations to Ukraine for many decades.

It's time consuming. And it will take a lot of time when Ukraine will start producing nuclear fuel and will start selling it to EU
However - its not an easy task to cut ties with Russia. Whatsoever is the reason. First Ukraine. have to run its rehabilitation program to stand on its feet again.

The Russian Federation annually earns more than 450 million euros in Europe from the sale of uranium and fuel elements for the NPP. Sanctions against Russia have not yet affected the nuclear industry precisely because of Europe's strong dependence on Russia.

However, the situation should change soon, and in this area it is Ukraine that will help Europe get rid of dependence on Russian nuclear fuel by starting the production of its own nuclear fuel.

On March 16, Head of the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine German Galushchenko said that Ukraine would first start producing nuclear fuel for its nuclear power units, and later it would start exporting it to the EU countries, and also stressed that Ukraine is one of the world leaders in the field of nuclear energy. Ukraine had the world's third largest nuclear potential, which it once renounced as a goodwill gesture as a peace-loving country.

Now Ukraine uses nuclear fuel produced by the United States Westinghouse at nuclear power units. The Ukrainian company Energoatom and the American Westinghouse are working on a new project. This year, Ukraine is ready to pass all the licenses, and in 2024 it will begin industrial production of fuel, which for the time being will take place at the Westinghouse plant in Sweden.

Europe is getting rid of yet another dependence on Russia.

https://biz.nv.ua/markets/evropa-zavisit-ot-rossiyskogo-yadernogo-goryuchego-poslednie-novosti-50279361.html

https://forbes.ua/ru/news/ukraina-za-tri-roki-planue-postachati-yaderne-palivo-dlya-zalezhnikh-vid-rf-krain-minenergo-17032023-12442

You can say your mantra about "India buys Russian oil at $80 a barrel" for as long as you like, but the reality is different:
- India and China, "friends of Russia" are ripping it off with all their might, and buying oil at $30-35 per barrel - this is information from Chinese traders, and I already receive information from traders in India who represent the state committee on energy resources or something like that it's called
- What your government is telling you about the purchase price of $80 per barrel is just a scheme to fool the people of India, who are being sold gasoline and diesel at an inflated price! At the same time earning a lot of money ON YOU! And you continue to believe the propaganda

         How insulting I am that I did not keep a copy of the article, which said that Europe already several years ago replaced hydrocarbon resources with alternative ones by almost 80%. How true is this? I do not presume to judge, but some countries have decided to completely abandon nuclear power plants. Is that supposed to say something? The most powerful source of energy.

Some of the heavy-engineering units had to shut down, but the impact was not as bad as it was expected. This time the winter was relatively mild, and then the EU managed to get around 20 billion cubic meters of gas in the form of LNG from Russia. After spiking to almost $3,000 per thousand cubic meters, the natural gas prices have receded to $600 per k.cu.m. And to their relief, crude oil prices have remained at ~$80 per barrel, thanks to India and China purchasing discounted cargos from Russia. And for the winter this time, the EU has enough time to prepare.

I'm just going to leave this here. It's clear that it's becoming a little bit more than just "a problem" for Europe. Europe is stress-testing it's covid-beaten economy for no reason if you ask me.

You have presented some important facts about Russia's dependence on oil and gas exports and Europe's dependence on Russian supplies.

Overall, it is important to consider all options and strategies to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and promote renewable energy sources.

The current crisis could serve as a catalyst for innovation and change in the energy sector, which could benefit both Europe and Russia in the long run.

How about one simple clarification? Which really will greatly complicate the process of copy-pasting the howls of propagandists for you?
And so - unsolvable for you, but simple for those who love to live in reality, the task - please provide evidence here, i.e. links to information, everything that you described here, but not from propaganda or simply paid sources and media? True, I greatly complicated the task for you? But nothing, now once again we will bring you "to clean water"
Understand a simple thing - no matter how you would like it to be bad in the EU, no matter how much you would like the dollar to collapse or, for example, Russia was considered a great country - these are all your fantasies, and not supported by anything. And no matter how much you dream - the reality will not change from this

hmm. What kind of success is it that European industries have to shut down, companies have to fire large number of their employees, inflation rate has to go up, many countries in EU enter recession, GDPs shrinks, mass protests are in streets of Europe every day, small businesses have their bills grow 10+ time, ...?

Let me just disagree!
What and where is Russia indispensable?
Let's take energy resources:
1. Oil
2. Gas
3. Coal
4. Nuclear fuel

Oil and gas Russia has monopolized only the EU. But this is not an economic option, acorruption and venality of EU politicians. Oil and gas in the EU was replaced by supplies from adequate countries.
Russia has problems with sales. The "way out" is to sell to China and India at a price below cost, and beg China and India to buy. They buy at about $30 a barrel. Then China and India resell them already at the market price - they are not under sanctions and not a rogue country
As a result - Russia has 0 income, India-China - earned on stupid Russia, The world did not feel a lack of oil

Coal. Who buys coal from Russia and what is its weight in the total volume? Almost not noticeable. The buyer is China, India. There is no influence on the world market. As they sold to China and India, they still sell it .. True, already at the cost price

Nuclear fuel - dependence on Russian fuel cells, is only for countries that have allowed such an unpredictable country into their market. This is now a personal problem of several countries, the world does not notice at all what Russia has come up with for itself. For one thing - study what part of the world's uranium production is Russia? I’ll say right away that in 2020, before sanctions and restrictions, it’s already 7-8th place with 7% of world production I.e. influence - only on those who mistakenly decided that Russia is an adequate supplier and chose their nuclear reactors, now becoming a hostage to their economic terror.

Russia in the supply of energy resources such as oil and gas is not indispensable. This is already confirmed by the last year, when the countries of Europe quite successfully passed the autumn-winter period, largely refusing the services of Russia. The process has already begun and will continue to be easier. At the same time, it should also be taken into account that Europe will simultaneously significantly accelerate the transition to the use of alternative energy sources, the production of which is constantly being improved and cheaper. Russia started a war with the European Union using its oil and gas supplies, but it is already losing it. The time will soon come when no one will need Russian energy resources, especially in such large volumes.