Topic: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? - page 19. (Read 14504 times)

Yes, with which I completely agree - extras, as a rule, think binary and expect exactly simple solutions, where you don’t have to think, everything is simple and clear

As for the decisions - not everything is so bad. There is a good "bad" example: the USSR. And it fell apart very quickly! Although it was also integrated into the world economy... The situation is very similar. At the same time, stories about "Russia's deep integration into the world economy" are a fairy tale. There is no dependence of the Western economy on Russia. There is a corruption dependence of some Western politicians and companies, this is a fact. And they are very against it, because in addition to the fact that they will lose their income, they will also sit in the dock, since all the dirt that the Kremlin has collected on them will definitely "pour" into the media. And what is important - those of the corrupt officials tainted with the Kremlin's money, who will be the first to understand that their "master" will soon crumble, will begin to hand over their accomplices in order to receive "indulgence" ...

Because merchants can't fight warriors, even if they don't like the way warriors run the state.... 

The oligarchs in Russia, after Khodorkovsky was imprisoned, no longer have power and influence. 

As for who wins as a result of the events taking place, the living will win and the dead will lose.  This is a typical game theory situation called the survivor's fallacy.  Dead people will not be able to tell anyone how afraid they were to die and what terrible emotions they experienced in life. 

The lucky ones who survive this catastrophe will become the heirs of the dead. 

They will get the money that the dead people couldn't get.  They will buy real estate in large cities, which will depreciate due to the fact that other citizens left the country in horror and emigrated to other countries.  They will have the opportunity to broadcast their thoughts and beliefs in the media.

If that's the case, then why didn't rich people go against Putin? War is brutal, while you have the money and power, let's stop the possibility of war and the possibility of reducing your capital.
During the war, only top elites benefit. Militarization of the economy only affects above median income earners but not the elites. Overall, everyone becomes a poor class.
For example, there is a resident of a small village in the center of Russia.  His salary is 20,000 - 30,000 rubles.  He has no chance to increase his income. 

Do you know that average person loves to hold cash? 99% will keep the cash for so long that one day out of nowhere their money gets hyperinflated. And that's not a new thing for Russia.
Also, 99% of people don't have the balls to actually do anything with money.

Poor people have had less access on education, have bad connections, find it hard to risk, even if you give them money.

Love the moving goalposts, like a shitcoin developer clings to different dates depending on how he wishes to weasel his way out of this.
Remember this garbage you posted just a few months ago?


When you keep posting shit like this when you keep being called on the stupid things you say, when it's obvious you have no clue what you're talking about when you've become the laughing stock with that stupid claim of Russia occupying half of Ukraine by May, don't you think it's time to move your quota shitposting somewhere else? Seriously, you have no clue about the countries at war, you have no clue about economics, you have no clue about anything, so stop using server space with your daily garbage 4 liners!
When you have 30 posts in this topic just quoting the TTF price, maybe you need to find a different playground, somewhere where you don't stand out like the scarecrow in The Wizard of Oz story for the same reason, of just straws and no functioning connecting synapses.


You assume:
- "volunteers" get paid differently than normal army pay (which is not 200k rubles)
-  they will get back alive
-  they will really get paid that much
-  they will get paid at all
Then you go ignoring the effect of the 300k able men who were the single providers for most families in the poorest regions, 300k dead and mauled men whose families won't get any help, just like the crew of Moskva, because, well it was an accident and they didn't die on combat duty. Oh wait, it's not even a war, it's a special operation so after it ends they won't be receiving any payment like veterans.

Every day is amazing news

Russia began to experience problems not only with the sale of oil, but also with its storage. I already wrote once - Russia is not only technologically backward, but also "mentally" - for 30 years, having huge profits from oil and gas, he plundered this money, but did not invest anything in such a critical industry - as storage for oil and gas.

And now, no matter how the Kremlin propagandists and their assistants squeal: Russia simply has nowhere to put oil! Nobody needs it and for 40 dollars. Even "friends of Russia" - China and India!

Now Russia is frantically looking for where to store oil. Incurring huge costs for transportation and injection into storage facilities .. True, they are no longer in their own - there are none of their own, and they are full.

They are taking .. to Ghana!
"A cargo of Russian oil has gone to storage in Ghana in West Africa, a country that itself exports oil and is on the threshold of two regional suppliers. Bloomberg writes about this."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-27/russian-oil-to-be-stashed-in-ghana-as-pool-of-buyers-shrinks

Well-known economist Andrei Movchan believes that the militarization of the economy is a very effective way of redistributing national wealth from richer people to less poor people. 

For example, there is a resident of a small village in the center of Russia.  His salary is 20,000 - 30,000 rubles.  He has no chance to increase his income. 

However, as a result of these events, he is mobilized and receives a salary of 200,000 rubles (that is, his salary has increased 10 times).  Yes, he may die in the war, but in any case, the income of residents of large Russian cities (Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, etc.) will be redistributed in favor of residents of small towns and villages.  And these are not only mobilized, but also, for example, workers of defense plants, who, working in three shifts, will also receive a salary of 200,000 rubles. 

As for residents of large cities (Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, etc.), they will lose their rather high incomes.  Some of these people will leave the country, others will find that the service industry they used to work in no longer generates cash flow. 

At the same time, the general standard of living of people in the country will certainly go down.  But many poor people will become richer (there is also a paradox that people compare their income with other people's income, and not with their last year's income).

That's right, most people want simple solutions and expect they will work but they won't. If we'll see a positive final of this story it will be a really complicated solution and we can hardly predict which components will it have. And yes, gas and petrol ban import from Russia will not impact the problem by itself only, you are right. And if to listen to different European politicians they know that, and it is just one of a measures they try to take. Very complicated problem, lots of hidden problems in the future.

This time EU had a very mild winter season, and as a result the gas consumption went down. And also, many of the governments resorted to burning heavily polluting lignite and coal to generate electricity. And despite all these, the gas prices (as per latest data from Dutch TTF, the price stands at $584 per 1,000 cubic meter), which is almost 4 times the price they had in 2020. The damage has been done to both the sides. Russia lost valuable export revenue, while many of the factories in the EU were forced to close down.

Personally, I think the gas ban is a problem for both Europe and Russia because first, Russia is gradually loosing out on a huge revenue they can get from these countries they’ve refused to sell to. Trust me, this also is spelling doom for her reputation as a reliable supplier of natural gas. These countries will look for other suppliers and when this ban will be lifted, they will not buy again from Russia.
Another thing I think is that this ban will cause higher prices for natural gas in Europe, which will have a ripple effect on other industries and the citizens residing in that country.
.
I believe this is suicide for all, both Russia and Europe!!!!

Let me clarify a little... Many people think that the sanctions will lead to the fact that on some day the population in Russia will wake up in the morning - and there is nothing around and nothing works No, it will not happen.
Here you need to understand a few nuances.
Firstly, for the majority of the population of Russia, sanctions will not worsen their standard of living... because it can no longer be made lower Moscow and St. Petersburg look attractive, well, another 5-10 cities throughout Russia. And the rest of the population lives, if not below the unity line, then at the level of the poverty line. They will not lose deposits in the bank - because they do not exist. They will not become unemployed - because even so many work for a salary that is barely enough to live on ...
Large private companies associated with Western buyers or whose production depends on Western technologies/resources will suffer. They will simply switch to more primitive technologies and lower quality raw materials.
And for the global economy of Russia, there is an option to switch to the format of North Korea. This is one of the options, otherwise the Kremlin terrorists and kleptomaniacs will have to part not only with their assets, but also with their lives...
So - the country will again close itself from the whole world, transfer the economy to "martial law" and will produce some rubbish from improvised resources and technologies, which the population will be forced to buy, since there will be no other goods. So there will be no "murder" of the Russian economy, it will return to the "Middle Ages"

Alternative energy is primarily the construction of nuclear power plants. 

In some countries, these nuclear power plants need to be built anew, and in some countries they simply need to be reactivated. 

However, this is a very difficult decision from a political point of view.  For a long time, European politicians have been telling their voters about the dangers of nuclear power.  Now it is very difficult to turn political rhetoric 180 degrees. 

As for solar and wind energy, of course it cannot replace the use of natural gas, oil and diesel fuel.

Thanks for correcting my link, now I tried to find even more concrete data of import price for natural gas in Europe. You are right when saying that the price is not at a low level, but it is at about the same rates as at the autumn on 2021 but it still goes down. So it corrects but not refutes my words.

As for more expensive import of gas, Europe declared green economy path and intences development of alternative power generation. As we see in 2022 wind and solar power generation took over 22% of entire generation of Europe. I'd expect that in nowadays surcumstances they'll use renewables even more intensievly.

So we shouldn't expect all will change totally in a few months, but if for several years then I'd say we can expect to see a totally different picture.

Exactly, and moreover: I've read somewhere Russian politicians were quite surprised the sanctions were so mild, they expected them to be much harsher. So they planned accordingly and Russia is now capable of withstanding sanctions for years or decades. So I'm not really sharing the joy of local regulars circle jerking in this thread to how effective the sanctions are. 

Undoubtedly, the Russian economy suffered losses from restrictive measures regarding the export of oil, natural gas, diesel fuel, etc. 

However, these losses are not capable of inflicting a heavy blow on the Russian economy in the short and even medium term.  More significant damage to the economy of the Russian Federation is caused by the militarization of its economy and the growing technological degradation.  This is a very big problem. 

But it concerns rather the citizens of Russia, as it directly correlates with the gradual deterioration of their standard of living. 

At the same time, modern Russia is a part of the world economy, a rather important part.  Another thing is that this circumstance, in my opinion, cannot be used as a weapon....

The gas price went down but it didn't go back down to previous levels, it stayed higher than those prices. Also don't forget that gas started being exported mainly as LNG to Europe which is a lot more expensive than the regular thing Russia used to export through the pipelines.

BTW the "us_gas_price" link you shared seems to be the "petrol" price which they call "gas" as in something you put in your car not the gas you pump into homes, industries, etc.
You should also keep in mind that US retail prices is not the same as export prices. They've actually kept it down well enough to decrease the domestic economical impact.

This seems to be a more appropriate chart at least for US prices: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_natural_gas_liquefied_exports_price

Let's look at statistics: during 2022 gas export from Russia went down comparing with 2021; gas prices were high in the middle of a year and then went down. So idea that Russia earns more then previously is not based on facts. But right, expecting that one of a biggest economy in the world will fall in several months is a strange idea as well. Russian economy is shrinking but it will not do it so fast. Global economy processes usually takes years and sometimes tens of years for getting results.

If we talk about oil exports, then, in my opinion, the situation is as follows.  The price of oil rose due to the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war.  As a result, windfall profits of $1 trillion arose (these incomes are also expenses (losses) for oil consumers). 

Who received these incomes?  Who is their ultimate beneficiary? 

These additional revenues were received by oil companies from different countries. 

Did the Russian oil companies receive these additional revenues (as was probably originally planned)? 

No, Russian companies did not receive these additional incomes. 

This is due to a number of factors, in particular the need to export oil to India and China, and not to Europe.  This has led to an increase in the cost of shipping oil by sea.  Surplus profits from the increase in world oil prices were received not by Russian oil producing companies, but by foreign carrier companies. 

However, talking about the huge current losses  Russian companies is also not true. 

The main losses are measured not in money, but in the loss of reputation as a reliable supplier of hydrocarbons to the European market.

As a matter of fact, the paper that Sithara shared is not pro-Kremlin propaganda at all and not that writers are are against the sanctions, but some of them (like Tania Babina) even ask for stricter ones. Just take a look at her Twitter profile (she is Ukrainian btw).

Oh what a masterpiece
A perfect example of how Kremlin propaganda is stupidly, primitively FALSE And it will try to pour any base reading into the ears of gullible citizens, just to try to show that Russia is not a complete ass in the economy
They have already glorified their president, he turns out to be not only a "dexterous scout", but also a successful locksmith, and in general he is a marine pikhotin )) And these are the words of the most miserable under-furrer!

But then again, as usual, I will bring you back to reality, and I will try to remove propaganda noodles from "your ears"!

So, a couple of real facts that you can check right now:
1. According to a study by the Finnish research center CREA, due to a combination of restrictions and discounts on Russian oil, Moscow loses about €160 million a day.
CREA estimates that Russia's revenue from fossil fuel exports fell 17% in December 2022 compared to the same month the previous year. And the Russian Ministry of Finance reports a 7.5% increase in revenues (specified - in RUB) from the sale of oil and gas in the same period. But the reason is not an increase in income, but an increase in the tax for Gazprom and a fall in the ruble by 20% It looks like I know how to increase Russia's income from oil by 1,000,000 times! Truth in rubles. True, a loaf of bread will cost 1,000,000 rubles
2. The US authorities continue to lower the "financial curtain" over the Russian economy, cutting off more and more banks from the ability to conduct dollar transactions.
On Friday, on the anniversary of the start of the war in Ukraine, the US Treasury announced the expansion of sanctions against the banking sector of the Russian Federation, including 11 more credit institutions in the "black lists".
Under the new "ban" were:
Moscow Credit Bank is the 7th in Russia in terms of assets and the 9th in terms of deposits of individuals. Uralsib Bank (24th in terms of assets), Ural Bank for Reconstruction and Development (28th), MTS Bank (32nd), which recently opened an office in the UAE, one of the main anti-sanction hubs.
In addition, Metallinvestbank (47th place), Lanta-Bank (109th place), Zenit Bank (35th place), Bank St. Petersburg (18th place), SDM remained without dollar correspondent accounts. - Bank (82nd place), as well as banks "Primorye" (100th place) and "Levoberezhny" (72nd place).
The largest privately owned Alfa Bank has been under US blocking sanctions since April. Sovcombank, also included in the top 10 of Russia, was banned on the day the war began - February 24, 2022.
https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/02/24/ssha-otklyuchili-ot-dollarov-pochti-vse-krupnie-chastnie-banki-rossii-a35073
3. Deputy head of the US Treasury announced new sanctions against the Russian Federation. Future punitive measures from the US, EU and other countries will affect Russian purchases of dual-use goods, Wally Adeyemo said. Washington intends to announce new sanctions in the coming days.
4. On the anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU officially approved the 10th package of sanctions against the terrorist country. It included large-scale bans on the supply of technology to the Russian Federation, as well as a "diamond" embargo and sanctions against Iranian suppliers of drones, with which Russia attacks Ukraine.
5. And about the successes of the "second army of the world", with the largest fleet of "modern equipment", which is "invincible for backward Western weapons": The Russian invaders continue to reopen the oldest Soviet scrap metal, experiencing a shortage of equipment. Thus, the first shots of the reactivated BTR-50Ps sent to the database zone in Ukraine appeared. BTR-50P was produced from 1954 to 1970. Russia has up to 1 thousand of them in storage

This! Many seem to disregard the fact that Russia keeps exporting and the West keeps buying both oil and natural gas. They even seem to earn more than the did before the war started. So those who are waiting 1-2-6 months for Russia to run out of money/resources seem to be waiting in vain!