Topic: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? - page 18. (Read 14410 times)

This is true, if we take into account the economic aspects, then China is completely benefiting from the Ukrainian war, despite the stagnation in which the global economy has entered since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis. But this may not be accurate, as we took into account that China needs a strong ally in the face of the threat of military confrontation with the West. We have seen how the United States rushed to fabricate crises in Taiwan with the aim of disrupting it from providing support to Russia.
It can be said that Russia would not stand in its war without supporting China, and China will not be able to withstand (militarily or in proxy wars) without a strong Russia ally.

The disruption of trade ties between Russia and Europe is a catastrophe for Russia....

I'm trying to find analogies in history and only the years 1918-1920 come to mind. 

In this regard, an existential crisis arises, because you involuntarily ask yourself the question - who are you in this new world? 

I do not want to be Schweik, and even more so I do not want to be the hero of the novel All Quiet on the Western Front.  It doesn't appeal to me at all. 

Now I like most of all the hero of the picaresque Soviet novels "12 chairs" and "The Golden Calf" - Ostap Bender.  This is a man who (figuratively speaking) drove his small sailboat in the middle of a squadron of large armored ships.  The big armored ships threatened to crush his little ship.  Ostap Bender struggled with fate and the inhospitable hostile world. 

He was a pronounced individualist and at the same time a player.  At the same time, he especially appreciated the beauty of his game and the elegance of combinations.  His main adventures came in 1920.

I'm not saying that all the priests of the MP ROC 24 * 7 read satanic sermons
It’s enough for me that the head of the ROC MP, the representative of the ROC MP in Ukraine, is constantly broadcasting (it’s great that this sect is being expelled from Ukraine), a noticeable part of the archpriests of the ROC MP in Russia ... It’s stupid to say that all the priests of the ROC MP are for war, death, destruction. .. I do not think that everyone has sold their soul, honor and conscience! It is also stupid to claim that 100% of the population of Russia are terrorists and supporters of the Kremlin Nazism. Although the president of Russia and his pack, whose president, according to Kremlin propaganda, supports "120% of the population" of Russia, and calls for violence, terror, murder, destruction of peaceful cities, this does not mean that all the inhabitants of Russia are his supporters.

There is a detailed article in Visual Capitalist, explaining the contribution by various countries to the Russian fossil fuel revenues. If you take the period from 24th February 2022 (when the war started) to 26th February 2023, it is clear that two of the NATO members (Germany and Turkey) contributed significantly to the Russian revenue inflow. Despite all the noise being made about imports by India, they are still at the 4th position, well behind both Germany and Turkey. China remains at the top, as they have been the largest trading partner for Russia historically.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/which-countries-are-buying-russian-fossil-fuels/

The situation is difficult but manageable.
Ukraine has enlisted the strong support of the world community, we are receiving weapons, financial assistance, and humanitarian support. Yes, the war continues. But today the Armed Forces of Ukraine are very effectively resisting the terrorist troops of Russia. But Ukraine, now, after those terrible crimes committed by Russia, on the territory of Ukraine, will never go to "peace negotiations". One of the reasons is that Russia does not need negotiations, but time to restore its army and industry. And after some time, Russia will continue its terrorist attack on independent Ukraine. They do not hide their goals - the destruction of independent independent Ukraine, which has chosen the Western vector of development.
After the massive sadistic shelling of the peaceful cities of Ukraine, the destruction of infrastructure, we have recovered - there are no longer constant power outages, the economy, of course, is not flourishing, but it is working and is recovering little by little. Yes, now China has gone to hell with its "peace plan", but its goal is to save Russia and legitimize China's potential actions towards Taiwan - these are China's main interests, and they are not about peace in Ukraine.

Today I was just in an Orthodox church, and I stopped specifically to listen to the priest - I didn’t say anything bad. 

The conversation with the parishioners was about the first Christians, about the ban on the image of God in Christianity, about the symbol of the church candle, and so on.  I was glad that there were no disparaging remarks about Catholicism in the conversation. 

I nevertheless concluded that the media promote evil, and ordinary priests still adhere to a balanced position.  Lately I have been visiting many churches and temples.  I don't see anything wrong there.  Perhaps a certain role here is played by the fact that the church is a very conservative social institution that has remained unchanged for centuries, invariably preserving rituals and traditions. 

For me, the enemy is precisely the demon of death, which takes possession of the souls of people.  Now I began to unmistakably see people obsessed with him.  More precisely, he somehow owns the souls of many, but some he captured totally, and some are only partially affected. 

Some do not succumb to its power at all (perhaps they have innate immunity).

As a citizen of Ukraine, I will say: I do not care who will be a neighbor in the east. What color will their skin be, what faith they will have, what traditions they will have, and what norms. The main thing is that they should be people who value human life, and do not consider people only consumables to satisfy the ambitions of a notorious half-intelligent miserable parrody of the Fuhrer of the 3rd Reich! So that they strive for development, respect someone else's integrity and the right to choose - and not the suppression of any will, any rights, any freedoms and the right to express one's word. So that their goal is development and progress, not destruction and degradation.
And without imperial ambitions, just because they have a huge territory .. Moreover, it is populated by a degraded and degraded population, which, instead of improving something in their country, are ready to go for a penny to kill the citizens of a neighboring country, just because they wanted to live well in a neighboring country

And now about "Orthodoxy" in Russia. A small digression into history ... 30s of the last century. After 1917, the Orthodox Church was persecuted by the Soviet authorities. Most of the ministers of the church were destroyed or immigrated from Russia. But the degree of discontent of the population began to rise, which historically got used to the church and not to the Komsomol or the Central Committee of the CPSU
What did the Kremlin regime do? They gathered all the heads of parishes (a kind of nodes of a distributed church network, in relation to the forum ) and suggested that you stay alive, and even save the Orthodox Church, but now you do not serve the faith, but obey the direct Ministry of State Security of the USSR. No, this is not a fairy tale, this is a very real fact, and there are historical documents in open sources, you can read it!
And since then, the Russian Orthodox Church, in the form of the Moscow Patriarchate, has become a department of the MGB / KGB of the USSR. And their goal was very precise - control of the population, manipulation of the minds of parishioners, gratification of the Kremlin's narratives and ideas.
If you now watch the performance of their priests, then you will have a feeling that this is not a church, but a sect of Satanists! Calls for violence, murder, war ... Total and widespread violation of the Commandments, propaganda for war, misanthropy, support for separatism, questionable business for the church (alcohol tobacco), total support for the ruling gang, pedophilia and homosexuality - this is all the modern ROC MP! No, I didn’t want to offend anyone, to take revenge for something - I just listed the FACTS!

India and China are siding Russia to get oil and gas from Russia and nothing else
They are smart not to be affected by US power and they look for their own economy

While Russian propaganda is screeching about "the EU has problems due to the rejection of Russian gas and oil," reality informs:
The Ministry of Finance of Russia reported about the collapse of twice the oil and gas revenues of the budget. The Russian federal budget continues to lose raw material rent, which provides almost 40% of government revenues.

In February, collections of oil and gas taxes to the treasury fell by almost half in annual terms. According to the Ministry of Finance, for the month the budget received 521.6 billion rubles against 971.7 billion in February 2022.

Revenues from oil and oil products fell by 48%, to 361 billion rubles. Although under the embargo the oilmen not only managed to keep their exports, they had to pay for it with discounts, selling barrels 40% cheaper than Brent.

The average price of Urals, according to the Ministry of Finance, is about $50 per barrel. And after the imposition of sanctions on Russian oil products, their value is also rapidly collapsing: in February, batches of diesel of Russian origin were sold at a discount of $35 per barrel, although at the beginning of the year the discount was calculated in units of dollars, and in November there was no discount at all.

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/03/03/minfin-otchitalsya-o-krushenii-vdvoe-neftegazovih-dohodov-byudzheta-a35814

At the same time, the buyers of the bulk of Russian oil and gas, India and China, continue to "cut" Russia, forcing it to sell oil and gas to them at an absolutely dumping price! Market quotes of Russian oil are one thing, but the reality is very different from the price at which Russia WANTS to sell oil

I am agreeing with you on this point, Their waiting seems futile to me also. Because these various surveys have revealed that many European countries who are openly speaking against Russia and banning their gas trade are secretly buying gas from Russia. I also think that maybe they have no other way because I saw in a news that 40 percent of Europe's energy comes from Russia through imports, and if they import this amount of energy from someone else, maybe their costs will go up a lot. So I think they have no choice but to buy fuel from Russia. And thus their not only 6 months a year have passed but Russia is pretty much in their position

I won’t say anything special about India, except for the facts of “strong friendship with Russia”:
using Russia's deplorable situation, India decided to take advantage of this and collect the last "skins" from the fake Colossus at the same time, they unilaterally terminated all contracts for both joint development and the purchase of Russian "unparalleled" primitive and backward iron

But China is more pragmatic. He also uses Russia "up and down" for his own benefit, and also forces Russia to sell gas and oil 2 times lower than the market. But China needs Russia precisely in an extremely weakened, but "alive" state.
Firstly, Russia for China is a guinea pig. Secondly, for China, Russia is a servant in international institutions, and will carry out all Beijing's orders. Thirdly, part of the Far East of Russia has already been assimilated by the Chinese, and the vast territories of Putin, under the guise of a lease, have in fact handed over to China for perpetual use. The necessary resources from Russia, China receives for a penny! And Russia executes this order without delay, because. China for Russia today is a SOVEREN or OWNER! And China needs all these lands, and future executors of the will of Beijing. If Russia totally loses, it will be divided into a dozen independent states, which is not beneficial to China .. Not beneficial because only Muscovy will remain in its power, which will be in debt for 500 years ahead, in the form of reparations to all affected countries, from its policy ... And at the same time, she will not have any resources, because. oil, gas, diamonds and others will go to independent republics such as the Republic of Sakha, the Siberian People's Republic, etc.
If you read "China's peace plan", then after the first proposals, it is veiledly written there - do not let Ukraine destroy Russia, China also has the right to occupy other territories (Taiwan), no more military-political alliances are needed - because China will not withstand this, for example Russia is indicative and undesirable for China ...

India reported that it imported 1.85 million barrels of Russian crude per day in February, which is a new record. India consumes around 5 million barrels per day (and exports oil products worth half a million barrels), so this represents 37% of the total consumption in India. India and China now together account for more than 4 million barrels of Russian crude per day. That said, China is paying more for the Russian crude as they are mostly purchasing ESPO and Sokol grades. India pays less, because they mostly purchase the Urals grade.

It seems to me that if the neighbor of Ukraine is the Great Persian Empire with its capital in Moscow, then Ukraine is unlikely to be well ...

Meanwhile, some representatives of the Church are already expressing the opinion that Orthodoxy is closer to Islam than to Catholicism.  One of my (former) friends also expressed his position that the adoption of Islam as the official religion of Russia would be a great decision, as it would contribute to the preservation and protection of traditional values ​​in the country. 

With all due respect to Islam (as well as to other world religions), I want to note that Orthodoxy is the key identifier of Russia, one of the few basic identifiers.  I do not believe that the vast territory of Russia will suddenly turn into a deserted desert.  In my opinion, Russia will survive.  Another thing is what meanings and values ​​the citizens of this country will profess.  So far I do not see any positive - every day it gets worse. 

But I don’t predict a terrible end either, rather there will be horror without end ....

I did not say that they could not produce. Carefully re -read my entire post
Palestine can, but this is the level of the Stone Age, and the only real test is a lot of them. But Israel fights terrorism and destroys the assembly centers of this terrorist weapon and their collectors. As I understand it, they will destroy the most stupid fanatics-terrorists over time, and smart people simply will not want to engage in terrorism and risk their lives, and the situation will change for the better.
To be honest, the concept of these terrorists is not entirely clear to me - your citizens, your relatives go and go to work in Israel, receive a salary there, provide their families, try to live well. And the terrorists, their brothers, husbands, neighbors - do everything to just return life in Palestine to the level of the wild Middle Ages!?

And Ukraine has already begun to answer Russia with such steps. Our drones are already in the suburbs, our drones are already flying to the Krasnodar crane (the Kuban by the way is the historical territory of Ukraine, so there will still be something to discuss with the terrorist country ). And the destruction of the oil -gas industry and military facilities will lower Russia to the level of the Middle Ages I agree with - yes, this will not happen in a day, and not in 1 month. But Russia did not leave another option - its goal to destroy Ukraine and the people of Ukraine, we do not agree with this, and will do everything so that Russia ceases its essence. I am sure - the whole normal world will breathe a sigh of relief!

Why do you think that any problems in economy can be a solution of an entire situation? I can remind you that Palestine has a very small economy but they anyway can produce rockets and missiles. As I said if the decision of it will be found, it will be really complicated, otherwise this problem will stay for really long. And expecting that gas confrontation will solve the problem or something will happen by itself — is naive. It is not just about economy and unfortunately no simple decision will be available.

Disintegration of the USSR resulted from two factors. First one was the collapse in the price of crude oil. Reagan had a deal with the Saudis to pump more oil and flood the market, thereby destroying petro-revenue of the USSR. And the second factor was the growth in population of the "parasite" republics like Tadzhikistan and Uzbekistan. These republics were heavily subsidized by the more economically stable republics such as Russia, Ukraine and Baltic nations. But the population increased to such an extent that an enormous burden was placed on the "donor" republics. This led to the collapse of the USSR.

These two scenarios are not applicable for Russia currently. Saudis are firmly with Russia and don't want Brent crude to drop below $80 per barrel. And there are no "parasite" republics within Russia. Economically less well-off republics, such as Buryatia, Tyva, Kalmykia, Dagestan and Chechenya have made that up with the supply of manpower to the conflict.

In Russia, things are now much worse than ever.  I think there are no direct analogies with the situation of the late USSR. 

Perhaps such a confusion of minds took place in 1917-1920, but no one living today remembers this time.  More precisely, there are those who remember.  For example, Girkin (Strelkov), he purposefully studied this era and read all the historical memoirs of the participants in the Civil War of 1918-1920.  In addition, he is a reenactor and, it seems, no longer distinguishes fiction from reality. 

Therefore, he feels like a fish in water.  Now in Russia, in the collective unconscious, everything good that was in the USSR, the Russian Empire and the Russian Federation is purposefully destroyed, everything floats in a porridge of shit. 

There are many people in Russia now who remember the collapse of the USSR, but they are also confused, like young people.

With all due respect, I disagree.
I watched it from the inside. Believe me, the processes are very similar.
Sanctions and pressure on the USSR began after the entry of the USSR Armed Forces into Afghanistan and the massacre organized there.
And then - the degradation of the economy, a decrease in the standard of living, an increase in tension, and ... COLLAPSE. True, Soviet slogans managed to create a kind of "union" - the CIS, but its effectiveness was null and its lifespan was slightly more than 0 As a result, it also sunk into oblivion ...
At the same time, the USSR was more self-sufficient, with guaranteed sales markets (Warsaw Pact countries + countries where the USSR staged coups and installed its own pocket rulers), which modern Russia does not have.
Moreover, all the processes I described above are being repeated in Russia now. True, a huge propaganda machine is working here, which is trying to convince everyone that everything is fine, you just have to wait

Who is so smart, you ask? And this is Christian Lindner - Minister of Finance of Germany.

The collapse of the USSR was a controlled process. 

Yes, it was not even a collapse, but rather an assembly on a new regulatory framework.  Instead of the USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics), the SNG (Union of Independent States) was formed. 

Everyone then perceived this as the formation of a new union state on the principles of confederation.  Something like the Commonwealth of the 17th century, which included Poland and Lithuania.  The Commonwealth was based on the principles - the people are equal to the people, the parliament is equal to the parliament, the king is equal to the king. 

With the collapse of the USSR, all important issues were resolved - the fate of the nuclear weapons of the USSR, the transit of natural gas to Europe, etc.

It was a regulated and controlled process.