Meanwhile Turkey agreed to support Sweden bid to join NATO and now Baltic sea basically becomes lake of NATO. First Turkey released Azov commanders, now supported Sweden bid to join NATO. From neutral country now they're turning into unfriendly country for Russia.
https://t.me/vert_i_call/12669However, many NATO countries
have ratified it, such as Great Britain, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, etc. - and from their point of view, this is a war crime.
If these countries who ratified convention would supply cluster bombs to Ukraine, that would be war crime. Now they can be against, they can condemn this decision, but it doesn't really matters.
In general, this is a good sign for Russia and for the whole world. There are many signals that there are very active behind-the-scenes negotiations between various participants, one way or another involved in the conflict. I think that with a probability of about 80%, this topic will lose its relevance towards the end of this year in connection with a peaceful settlement between Russia and Ukraine. There is also about a 20% chance that there will be a new phase of escalation in the fall, most likely related to the desire of Poland and the Baltic States to also participate in military operations against Russia. For Russia, this is an acceptable option, it will probably end with new territorial acquisitions. I assess the risk of nuclear escalation with a full-fledged direct confrontation between Russia and NATO as minimal. I assess Ukraine's ability to reverse the unfavorable course of the conflict during the current counter-offensive as zero, I think this counter-offensive has almost completely fizzled out. And there will be no next chance for Ukraine.
Ok, some random % based on nothing more than personal expectations. So far you weren't doing very well with future predictions, but continue. And dreams about more territorial gains when Russia was taking Bakhum for how long, 10 months? Oh, I forgot, it wasn't even Russia but Wagner.
