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You are wrong in all your statements. See, you do not have to look for anything.
My own statement does not justify attacking non-critical infrastructure nor acts of terrorism (which would be veeeery easy to carry out by Ukraine if they wanted). While it might even be a false flag, the fact is that the Ruzzian Mod is 300 meters from there. My statement signifies that an attack on a legitimate target in Moscow may open the eyes of many to the sad reality: their government cannot even defend itself and this war is not something happening at 1000 clicks away.
If you deflect a drone it will land in another place. If you are in Moscow that "other place" is likely to be inhabited by humans. If the Ruzzians use a system that protects the Ministry by making drones fall in the vicinity means that they would rather protect the Ministry than other inhabited buildings in the surroundings.
And now that you understand why you are wrong and I am right, shall we talk about throwing missiles to grain silos as terror?
As an alternative I suggest talking about inflation in Ruzzia. Another interesting topic.
with such low effort arguments you've done a great job at discrediting yourself, at which point this just feels like a great waste of time on my part, so i guess you got me, good job on that front.
Your statements do not merit anything else.
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Grain silos:
Objective facts - excess grain for export, China was to be the main consumer. Part of the larger end of the grain deal
Results - Financial and political pressure on the "west". Event removes revenue stream from UA, opens up markets for RF grain, excess UA grain would flood Poland & Romania undercutting local farmers and further raising social tensions there.
Poland and Hungary threaten to cut Ukraine’s export route to the West UA coverage - RF is starting new holodomor for...whole world? and only UA grain can save the children. Try to get as much coverage to stay in news headlines, bring attention to
yearly child deaths in Cuba as a consequence of blockade starving children elsewhere in the world.
RF coverage - target was used as military infrastructure to create and launch sea drones that attacked bridge in Crimea
Facts - You argue that a drone hitting a commercial building near the Ministry is terror, but the attack on food storages is ok. Why would I need to make an effort to rebate that, you are doing great on your own.
The complaints of eastern European farmers were already there even during the grain deal, so is not a result of breaking it. The solution is simple: Ukrainian grain would only be for export, not for local markets. It is a mere regulatory issue.
Ruzzia is already a grain exporter. But let me ask you: If the grain from Ukraine to China is replaced with grain from Ruzzia... what happens to the price of grain inside Ruzzia? If you ask me, the RF citizens are going to pay extra and is not a luxury product, it is the most basic food. I hope they feel glorious about it.
A deal has two sides. It is not that Ruzzia is creating hunger, is that by not reaching an agreement grain prices will be higher. Everywhere, including those places in which the price will not be affordable. Casually, many of those countries are friendly to the Ruzzian cause... for now.
As for the economic effect in US, it will be positive, they
produce grain like crazy and now they can sell it more expensive.
Regarding Europe, the cost of food is not really a concern. Production and demand are quite controlled.
RF inflation:
Objective facts - USD=90RUB
Russia notched a victory in the fight for influence over global oil markets in recent days when the price of the country’s most coveted crude traded above a Western price cap imposed to starve Moscow of funds for the war in Ukraine.Result - Financial pressure on RF.
UA coverage - RF will financially collapse any second now, keep raising support for war effort. Cost of RF imports will skyrocket
RF coverage - RF oil/gas exports are priced in USD but expenses state budget and military salaries are paid in RUB. So high exchange rate actually helps budget surplus. Food is local grown and denominated in RUB so no inflation, but iPhone imports will cost more.
Now what's more worrying to me is all the recent ruckus going on around Poland. Seems the "west" has exhausted current list of available escalations, so a potential next step appears to be Poland making a bilateral defense pact with Ukraine and sending in their troops to UA (entering the conflict on their own "outside" of NATO framework). This would compensate all of the lost manpower in UA, yet supposedly keep NATO out of direct confrontation. Seems like RF is prepping Belarus, nukes, and general mobilization as a hedge against such development.
Inflation:
Are you clueless about what inflation is? You just throw there some economic non-facts and then say I am not doing enough effort to rebate? Gee dude... you need to try to have some self-criticism.
This is not about coverage, this is about the interest rates (currently 8.5%, previously at 20%) that the RF has to keep so that they do not spiral into hyperinflation. The only person with a brain in the whole Ruzzian government is
Nabiullina, but she can only do what she can. You know what is paying a mortgage nowadays at nearly 10%, that is more than double than 2 just two years ago?
That is inflation.
Escalations:
Oh my friend, the "available escalations" are endless... ATACMS, F-35s, more F-16s, more Abrahms, ... The only reason this is not happening is because the US is absolutely fine with Ruzzia fighting this war and self-demilitarising the Soviet arsenals without any US soldier killed. The game of proxies is so old.
I have said it over and over, there is a winner to this, but is not Ruzzia, is not Germany, is not Poland and is not Ukraine (may be in the future, not as of now).
And China too - cheap oil right when they are in a crisis.
I see, so it appears that reading comprehension is at issue here. Show me where i claim that "
hitting a commercial building near the Ministry is terror, but the attack on food storages is ok"
(hint: you won't find it!)
"
The solution is simple: Ukrainian grain would only be for export, not for local markets. It is a mere regulatory issue"
Well, technically that's for EU to decide. With 5 weeks left till September, limits on heating and temperature inside the house, with pictures of elderly and lower class going to McDonald's to warm up, and
food inflation at 16,41% do you trust bureaucrats not to touch all this almost free grain and just let it rot? The degree can be argued but it's clear to raise political tension, and easy points for any opposition.
"
If the grain from Ukraine to China is replaced with grain from Ruzzia... what happens to the price of grain inside Ruzzia? If you ask me, the RF citizens are going to pay extra and is not a luxury product, it is the most basic food. I hope they feel glorious about it."
Russia is having a good harvest year so much that
they're giving tens of thousands of tons of free grain away, sure there's nothing free and they're using soft power to get political influence but that's besides the point. There are price limits on basic foodstuff in Russia, so prices on vegemite will go up, but locally produced products will stay the same for population. There's only an opportunity cost, loss of potential additional income.
As for the economic effect in US, it will be positive, they produce grain like crazy and now they can sell it more expensive.Can you at least put a bit more effort in your arguments outside of typical BS targeted at the uneducated masses?
Both sides need to feed their spheres of influence. Look at the scale/population of US and RF spheres and populations they need to at least feed so they don't flip sides. This is obviously not about US generating income from LatAm/Africa/Asia, US can always print more money, but they cant print food, and without cheap UA exports things will get more difficult. Straight from USDA
Russian wheat exports are forecast to hit a record 45.0 million tons in 2022/23, up 36 percent from the prior year and 3.5 million tons above its previous record in 2017/18. Check out jump in RF exports just in one year and compare it with total UA export
Are you clueless about what inflation is?You, funny
. Interest rates are not inflation. US average mortgage rates are at 7,34% even if RF is at 10% have they ever been at par with US and is the spread really that dramatic you make it out to be? You seem to be confusing inflation with currency devaluation/manipulation. Or rather, something tells me that you're well aware of this and just trying to mislead the masses, so instead let's try to educate them shall we?
Currency manipulation - by China or any other other country - is seen to flout global trading rules by conferring unfair competitive advantages. A country does so by artificially inflating or deflating its exchange rate. It may be designed to make exports more competitive, to avoid inflation or reduce capital inflows. as far as inflation yeah it's high
Russian inflation above 4% target for first time since March, economy ministry saysOh my friend, the "available escalations" are endless... ATACMS, F-35s, more F-16s, more AbrahmsATACMS are mostly useless, UA is already using HIMARS with pods of 6 GMLRS missiles at a cost of $168k/each and range of 84km. That already puts Mariupol and almost everything to the sea of Azov as well as around 90% of all areas under RF control (outside Crimea) in rage. How much more will a single ~$1,5MM ATACMS missile in a pod get you? Only to harass Crimea, striking fear in RF population that completely forgot about the war and bathing with their kids on the beaches of Crimea during summer season, oh and perhaps a moral booster for UA propaganda looks we can ruin their summer vacations. Not even close to anything ground breaking.
Anyone who has followed this conflict at all, knows that the front lines are so over-saturated with mines, ATGMs and drones, that tanks are not real force multipliers anymore. Or have you already forgot about the "free the leopard" campaign? Diversion and reconnaissance groups having problems sneaking through, Abrahms with their jet engines could probably be spotted from space in IR.
Airspace is also saturated with SAMs from both sides, so much so that rockets get intercepted. Thinking that anyone will be able to dominate airspace and needs the extra functionality of F35s for some areal dogfights is delusional. F16s could be used to lob misses just like RF does now and that's about it. All previous major force multiplies have been neutralized from both sides, and that's not going to change, that why we see all of the trench warfare going on. Only thing that has a remote possibility of becoming a game changer are drones in huge capacities, scaled to a point of 1 drone per soldier. Such as
Iran helping Russia build drone stockpile that is expected to be ‘orders of magnitude larger’ than previous arsenal, US says...US intelligence officials have warned that Russia is building a drone-manufacturing facility in country with Iran’s help that could have a significant impact on the war in Ukraine once it is completed. perhaps west is also working on this at such capacities undercover, or a jammer for each soldier? After all, we humans always find improved ways of killing each other.
Bottom line, winter is coming and we're in war of attrition. From the social, economical, political, and military fronts the weakest link on RF side looks to be economy which (with China) still appears resilient. From the west it's military, not the equipment but simpe manpower, which surprises absolutely no one. All other events are black swans/long shots.