Nice tale. It is much more unprofitable to finish the conflict without a victory. US not liking war loosers when paying big tax for having the biggest and possibly the best military at least in terms of capability.
But there is a clear risk of the Republicans wanting to false-end this conflict a then having to pay again the price of a cold war during the next decade. It would be pretty much in the line of the international gaffes of Trump (like fucking the pacific trade agreement, fucking the Iran non-proliferation deal, leaving top-secrets in the hallway...). But de Santis or others are unlikely to know much better either.
However, if they make the White House, they would have access to the information and perhaps see things differently, who knows. IMO Trump is pretty much a Russian agent.
Tnx. Biden is no stranger to humiliating military defeats. Let me remind you that his presidency began with a crushing fiasco in Afghanistan, and he came to power precisely on promises to withdraw troops from there and end the conflict. Although the Doha peace agreement with the Taliban was signed by Trump, who also wanted to play this card in his election campaign. Thus, both candidates in their election campaign sought to use the powerful trump card of a peaceful settlement of the protracted Afghan conflict, which they inherited from the Obama administration. I think the topic of a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian conflict will also become a similar trump card in the 2024 election campaign for both Trump and Biden, and it doesn’t matter who plans to participate in this political show. Society loves victory and dislikes defeat, but even more society does not like protracted military conflicts with murky goals at the expense of taxpayers.
I think even after the crushing victory of Russia, the media in the USA will convincingly explain to ordinary Americans why this is a victory, not a defeat - some Russians (from Russia) killed other Russians (from Ukraine) and this is a good waste of American money. And damn it's hard to argue with that, given that most ordinary Americans can't seem to find Ukraine on the world map.
Oh I, remember Afghanistan, as much as Russia remembers it. The America retreat from Afghanistan is not a military defeat (yet certainly not a political success) and it is not inherited from Obama (it was JW Junior, one of the most unqualified ever presidents) either, it is merely cutting economic loses ... after 20 years of occupation they figured out that it was much better to have the
Taliban fighting Iran with American equipment. plus the point is now clear: attack the US and there will be no hole in the earth you can hide in.
Now, to the real issue here:
The RF wants Crimea, US is as of today supporting all efforts to either return it to Ukraine or put it into an untenable position.
The key here is if the US can afford a peace in which the RF meets the objective of taking land from Ukraine to secure Crimea and Sebastopol (since it failed in anything else already, no government change, military stronger than ever, more countries joined NATO, Europe nearly united against the RF invasion, young workers running away, low growth, diplomacy problems, ...). My take is that the US has less allies an less powerful in the global context that it used to have. Any US president should understand that if Europe has to be dealing with the RF because the US left them with the problem, they should not expect any help with China (which to be honest is a good commercial partner for Europe, as the RF was before Putin started reading the wrong books).
I believe Trump
will do whatever he wants, because I think that there is a substantial base of people in America that will support him even if proven that he has killed Christmas. He does not have to sell anything really, nor respond to any action... anything said against him is met with insults, self-victimization and accusations of partisanship. If he wants to support Ukraine he will find a excuse ("defend the US interests or whatever") and if not... the same ("not spending money blah blah...").
If elected, will the Republicans dare to o the right thing or would they simply succumb to doing the opposite of whatever the democrats do?