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Topic: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] - page 15. (Read 59103 times)

sr. member
Activity: 2464
Merit: 318
BTW do you consider a war crime to bomb a school in Odessa and use cluster munition in civil Odessa and damage several dams in the dnipro? I do not know about you, but do not think this is not being documented.

Really? I heard Russians blew up 155mm munitions cargo in Odessa

https://t.me/vicktop55/24220
legendary
Activity: 2184
Merit: 1575
Do not die for Putin
Meanwhile, Russia took Rabotino, reversing the main success of last year's Ukrainian counteroffensive. In general, Russia is successfully advancing along almost the entire front line. Ukraine cannot stop the breakthrough in Ocheretino; it seems that Syrsky has run out of combat-ready reserves.



Too many of frog jumps in just two sentences. Robotine does not seem to be under Ruzzian control in the most trusted maps. I think that at least the southern part has changed hands three or four times. I am not saying it cannot happen, it all depends on the supplies arriving on time, but not yet.

On Ocheretino, the problem is not "reserves" is more about munitions & supplies, which eventually will arrive. Obviously, it is not good news to loose a few villages, but there are many failed (spectacularly failed) attacks along the frontlines with huge costs to the Ruzzian stockpile of vehicles. Very expensive real state you are buying.

Anyway, I can see that in the map Ruzzia has the initiative, but as you zoom out and see the strategic level... it is a completely different story.

BTW do you consider a war crime to bomb a school in Odessa and use cluster munition in civil Odessa and damage several dams in the dnipro? I do not know about you, but do not think this is not being documented.
copper member
Activity: 2072
Merit: 901
White Russian
Meanwhile, Russia took Rabotino, reversing the main success of last year's Ukrainian counteroffensive. In general, Russia is successfully advancing along almost the entire front line. Ukraine cannot stop the breakthrough in Ocheretino; it seems that Syrsky has run out of combat-ready reserves.

legendary
Activity: 2184
Merit: 1575
Do not die for Putin
I saw this video today (it is a bit nasty, so see it at your risk). Ukraine has clearly shown they do have ATACAMS, and they can use them very effectively even in areas that are supposedly behind the Ruzzian air defence umbrella. The effect on any airfield, any training camp or in any other concentration of "soft targets" is devastating. Hundreds of men or a handfull of planes can be blow-up on sight with a single strike.

To note, Ukraine spent 4 missiles to do the job of one. I think they expected at least some interceptions by the Ruzzian air defence that simply did not happen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKv_1bA-qrY


Apparently yet another refinery has been hit near Moscow. Sources point to a 10% increase in gasoline prices in Ruzzia in the last week. Let us see if any of the resident trolls of this thread wants to throw smoke on what's happening.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33F0gzsf0uQ


Protest in Georgia seem to be catching speed....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h2i5PTf2jdc
legendary
Activity: 2184
Merit: 1575
Do not die for Putin
Edit for an update: Several ATACAMS strikes have taken place in Crimea. It seems that they can perfectly skip the air defence.




I disagree and you do not have any believable source. The systems are not Ukrainian and every nation has the right to operate their own equipment in their territory and in international airspace. They are also free to use the intelligence gathered as they see fit.

But enough of silly stuff, my guess is that such integration is going towards creating a balanced if not Ukrainian superior sky in the frontlines. Air defences, F-16s that should be soon arriving will be able to see and target with a minutes time with integrated systems.



https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/04/25/european-trained-ukrainian-f-16-pilots-will-not-be-ready-until-late-2024_6669456_4.html

Whole "F16 training" is a sham, ask any experienced pilot. Training program serves as a cover for a fact
that planes will be operated by western pilots

Regarding the date, yes it is well know, they are not going to put their beloved f16 out there with the hours of  training of, for example, a Ruzzian pilot. I guess that after pilots with experience in F29 get one year of training in F-16 you are going to argue that now they are "western pilots"??

On your second statement... as usual, no credible source. I will give you one:

https://www.twz.com/this-is-how-long-it-would-really-take-ukraines-pilots-to-convert-to-f-16s

Quote
For experienced Ukrainian fighter pilots, a type conversion to the F-16 could resemble a typical FTU transition conversion course, known as TX.
Quote
“For a pilot with around 500 hours experience in a Western fighter, but that has never previously flown the F-16 — someone transitioning from the Hornet for example — without any breaks, working weekends, etc, they need 69 days to learn everything to safely employ the Viper in air-to-air and air-to-ground roles,”
Quote
“The answer initially would have to be based on building a new syllabus based on Ukraine’s specific needs and the threat scenario, and to then take that into combat would need anywhere between six and 12 months of training. It would still be risky, but that might outweigh the rewards.

Why would they wait for a year to field the f16 if they were going to use "western pilots"? They would say that it took 2 months of training and then send the f16 + "western pilots" with a few years of experience in the jet. It

Regarding the integration, I have seen recently a tablet / ipad attached to an Ukrainian cockpit with battlefield information. My guess is that this information is going to be integrated properly. This means pilots will have view of all detected threats and radars and be able to be more effective in suppressing the Ruzzian air defences or avoiding them.

If you look at my previous posts quoting strategies, it seems that Ukraine / US have finally come to the conclusion that there are no shortcuts, they have to wage war as it has be done: first weaken, then attack. The opposite does not work. The air strategy for Ukraine perfectly fits this narrative and the content of the aid package does also support it.

Again, I expect to see from Ukraine more attacks on refineries - even crude exporting facilities after the US elections, more attacks on air defence systems to start clearing the air for the f16s and the Ukrainian aviation being more effective while the Ruzzian aviation starts either being grounded or start taking big loses.
sr. member
Activity: 2464
Merit: 318
We would rather hand them over to Ukraine, it's time to close the sky.


Its not a video game, you can't just "hand them over to Ukraine" and hope for the best.
There is a reason why pilot training is slow and takes time, those are not WW1 planes

https://flightdecksolutions.com/our-fleet/F-16
newbie
Activity: 15
Merit: 0


I disagree and you do not have any believable source. The systems are not Ukrainian and every nation has the right to operate their own equipment in their territory and in international airspace. They are also free to use the intelligence gathered as they see fit.

But enough of silly stuff, my guess is that such integration is going towards creating a balanced if not Ukrainian superior sky in the frontlines. Air defences, F-16s that should be soon arriving will be able to see and target with a minutes time with integrated systems.



https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/04/25/european-trained-ukrainian-f-16-pilots-will-not-be-ready-until-late-2024_6669456_4.html

Whole "F16 training" is a sham, ask any experienced pilot. Training program serves as a cover for a fact
that planes will be operated by western pilots

We would rather hand them over to Ukraine, it's time to close the sky.
sr. member
Activity: 2464
Merit: 318


I disagree and you do not have any believable source. The systems are not Ukrainian and every nation has the right to operate their own equipment in their territory and in international airspace. They are also free to use the intelligence gathered as they see fit.

But enough of silly stuff, my guess is that such integration is going towards creating a balanced if not Ukrainian superior sky in the frontlines. Air defences, F-16s that should be soon arriving will be able to see and target with a minutes time with integrated systems.



https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/04/25/european-trained-ukrainian-f-16-pilots-will-not-be-ready-until-late-2024_6669456_4.html

Whole "F16 training" is a sham, ask any experienced pilot. Training program serves as a cover for a fact
that planes will be operated by western pilots
legendary
Activity: 2184
Merit: 1575
Do not die for Putin
Zelensky gone from Ukraine will be a good thing. Of course, if he isn't assassinated, he will simply retire to one of his homes... maybe the one in Florida. Will whoever takes his place be worse? Or will Ukraine simply do the smart thing and capitulate to Russia?


“It’s OVER For Ukraine & Zelensky Will Be GONE Within 60 Days.” Col. Douglas MacGregor - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kttfALsoQx0.


Cool

I see his mouth, I do not see his money. I am going to quote this one so that the next time you quote him I can recall this.

Anyway...
Among all the list of new supplies to Ukraine, there is a line that seems not that important:

Quote
Equipment for the integration of Western launchers, rockets and radars with Ukrainian air defense systems;

However this means much more that it looks at first. An integration of the air defence systems passed or existing in Ukraine with other NATO systems... what could this mean? Will the US AWACS and predators that are permanently observing the black sea and the frontlines be now integrated with Ukraine's air defence?

My guess is that NATO can perfectly spot any of the planes that are launching the FABs (probably Ukraine's unresolved issue at the front). Passing that information in real time and with accurate coordinates to Ukraine's ground to air systems may be the beginning of the end of the Ruzzian advantage.

They're already integrated, most of those systems are operated by foreign "advisers"

I disagree and you do not have any believable source. The systems are not Ukrainian and every nation has the right to operate their own equipment in their territory and in international airspace. They are also free to use the intelligence gathered as they see fit.

But enough of silly stuff, my guess is that such integration is going towards creating a balanced if not Ukrainian superior sky in the frontlines. Air defences, F-16s that should be soon arriving will be able to see and target with a minutes time with integrated systems.

legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 1368
Zelensky gone from Ukraine will be a good thing. Of course, if he isn't assassinated, he will simply retire to one of his homes... maybe the one in Florida. Will whoever takes his place be worse? Or will Ukraine simply do the smart thing and capitulate to Russia?


“It’s OVER For Ukraine & Zelensky Will Be GONE Within 60 Days.” Col. Douglas MacGregor - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kttfALsoQx0.


Cool
sr. member
Activity: 2464
Merit: 318
Among all the list of new supplies to Ukraine, there is a line that seems not that important:

Quote
Equipment for the integration of Western launchers, rockets and radars with Ukrainian air defense systems;

However this means much more that it looks at first. An integration of the air defence systems passed or existing in Ukraine with other NATO systems... what could this mean? Will the US AWACS and predators that are permanently observing the black sea and the frontlines be now integrated with Ukraine's air defence?

My guess is that NATO can perfectly spot any of the planes that are launching the FABs (probably Ukraine's unresolved issue at the front). Passing that information in real time and with accurate coordinates to Ukraine's ground to air systems may be the beginning of the end of the Ruzzian advantage.

They're already integrated, most of those systems are operated by foreign "advisers"
legendary
Activity: 2184
Merit: 1575
Do not die for Putin
Among all the list of new supplies to Ukraine, there is a line that seems not that important:

Quote
Equipment for the integration of Western launchers, rockets and radars with Ukrainian air defense systems;

However this means much more that it looks at first. An integration of the air defence systems passed or existing in Ukraine with other NATO systems... what could this mean? Will the US AWACS and predators that are permanently observing the black sea and the frontlines be now integrated with Ukraine's air defence?

My guess is that NATO can perfectly spot any of the planes that are launching the FABs (probably Ukraine's unresolved issue at the front). Passing that information in real time and with accurate coordinates to Ukraine's ground to air systems may be the beginning of the end of the Ruzzian advantage.
legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 1368
But the real question about paxmao is, is he sincere, or is he trying to hide the fact of what Russia is doing on other scenes around the world. Consider that Russia is moving into Africa while the US is moving out. People are people, even in Africa. Give them a good start, and they can build your military equipment for you. Check out the map at the site.


We have a Hot War in Cold Places AND A Cold war in Hot Places



https://www.linkedin.com/posts/drpippam_we-have-a-hot-war-in-cold-places-and-a-cold-activity-7189574708600692736-nql_?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios
We have a Hot War in Cold Places AND A Cold war in Hot Places. It's incredible that the press covers the war in Ukraine but does't explain that the supply lines for it come from Africa. The Wagner Group has been formally absorbed into the Russian military and renamed The Africa Corps for a reason. Russia has won immense territory across Africa, giving them presence, cash flow and influence that the West isn't even cognizant of. We're witnessing geopolitical cognitive dissonance. https://lnkd.in/eW8w9MNa

These maps matter. The red map shows Russian military MOUs across Africa. Now we are losing and withdrawing.

Eric Schmitt @EricSchmittNYT The The New York Times writes "U.S. to Withdraw Troops From Chad, Dealing Another Blow to Africa Policy" https://lnkd.in/eKFgXgJN

Ed D'Agostino

John Mauldin

NATO

NATO Defense College Royal Military Academy Sandhurst

Royal College of Defence Studies

U.S. Naval War College

CENTCOM Global, Inc.

NATO DIANA
...



Cool
sr. member
Activity: 2464
Merit: 318
I think this sums it up pretty well:

legendary
Activity: 2184
Merit: 1575
Do not die for Putin

Yes Ukraine has recently hit another refinery, not far from the front.

NATO has already deployed troops in Ukraine, but not for combat. As usual there are "advisors" meaning military intelligence officers, mainetenance & technical personnel, etc. It is not only Macron who is exremely angry at Putin for waging this stupid war.

There is zero chance of Ruzzia targeting any nuclear weapon as of now. It is just ridiculous. I guess deploying nukes in Poland would be a good response to the Ruzzian weapons in BealoruZZia.

Edited to add: Two main strikes actually, one a Refinery in Smolesnk (around 300 km from the border with Ukraine), but also in Krasnoyarskii (more than 500 km from dnipro), a depot of gliding bombs / gliding kits . It is evident that Ukraine knew what to hit. As more of a psy op, a helicopter was burned (and filmed while the sabotage was being carried out for proof) in an aerodrome in Moscow.

Both of these strikes are level God in difficulty, as they have to fly over the in theory protected territory where the Ruzzian army is.

copper member
Activity: 2072
Merit: 901
White Russian
As Russian Troops Broke Through Ukrainian Lines, Panicky Ukrainian Commanders Had No Choice But To Deploy One Of Their Least-Prepared Brigades

The situation in and around Ocheretyne is desperate for Ukraine
...
Russian army’s 30th Motor Rifle Brigade raced several miles along the railroad threading west from Avdiivka and captured most of Ocheretyne—and potentially also Novobakhmutivka, the village south of Ocheretyne.

It’s the fastest penetration into Ukrainian territory by Russian forces in months—and it threatens to collapse Ukraine’s defensive line west of Avdiivka. A line that has held for months, but now has a deep and widening gap in it. “Pandora's box is open,” Ukrainian analysis group Deep State commented.

To get a sense of how frightened Ukrainian commanders are right now, consider the brigade they rushed into the breach north and west of Ocheretyne: the 100th Mechanized Brigade. The brigade is one of the newest and most lightly-equipped brigades in the Ukrainian army—and seemingly unsuited for the kind of front-line triage commanders are asking of it.
...
The 115th Mechanized Brigade was supposed to take the 47th Mechanized Brigade’s place in Ocheretyne, seamlessly filling the same fighting positions with enough troops to maintain the integrity of the defensive line west of Avdiivka.

But something went wrong. According to Mykola Melnyk, the famed 47th Mechanized Brigade company commander who lost a leg during Ukraine’s counteroffensive last year, “certain units just fucked off.

The 115th Mechanized Brigade’s failure to hold the line practically invited the Russian 30th Motor Rifle Brigade into Ocheretyne—and triggered a panicky response in Ukrainian headquarters. Commanders ordered the battle-weary 47th Mechanized Brigade to turn around and return to the front line. They also ordered the 100th Mechanized Brigade to counterattack.
...
That the Ukrainians had to rush into a combat a comparatively weak brigade speaks to the paucity of Ukraine’s reserves west of Avdiivka, however. The Russians, for their part, are keeping an entire tank division, the 90th, in reserve around Avdiivka.

If the 90th Tank Division rolls into Ocheretyne before the Ukrainian eastern command mobilizes additional reinforcements, the Russian penetration could widen into a full-fledged breakthrough—one that could force tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops to retreat west to their next line of defenses.

Is it time to mobilize women and teenagers yet? Because UA is winning so hard?
Everyone here is too keen on discussing US assistance to be distracted by such trifles as the breakthrough in Ocheretino. Although he pretty much confused the plans of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Ukraine still cannot stabilize the front line.
legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 1368
Well, I'm glad that the US is getting something for their money. I mean, killing all those troops off on both sides should be worth something, right? But it seems that one of the things that the US is doing is training Russia in their advancements... by accident, of course.


U.S. military and contractors are exploiting Ukraine conflict to test AI-powered military technology



https://www.naturalnews.com/2024-04-26-military-contractors-using-ukraine-test-artificial-intelligence.html
The military-industrial complex of the United States is allegedly using Russia's special military operation in Ukraine to test new artificial intelligence (AI)-powered military technology that assists in detecting targets on the battlefield utilizing drone footage.

The technology, referred to as Project Maven, had its research acquired from the government by Google under a contract six years ago before being acquired recently by other contractors following opposition from engineers and other employees who did not want to be associated with creating an AI tool for military use.

Today, the technology is being tested on the front line in Ukraine, the New York Times reported, as Western and Ukrainian officers, together with some top military contractors from Silicon Valley, are "exploring new ways of finding and exploiting Russian vulnerabilities."

Thus far, the findings from the testing have reportedly been "mixed." While Project Maven permits commanders to identify the movements of Russian forces and utilize AI algorithms to predict their next steps, it has seemingly been "difficult" to bring "21st-century data into 19th-century trenches."

One of the biggest obstacles, the New York Times said, is that due to restrictions enforced by President Joe Biden, the U.S. military can only supply Ukrainians a "picture of the battlefield" without providing exact targeting details.

It is also unclear if the latest technology would even be able to alter the course of the war due to Russia's ability to adapt to emerging technologies being employed by Ukraine.
...



Cool
legendary
Activity: 2184
Merit: 1575
Do not die for Putin
The strategic planning of this war is known and now it is just a question of the US & Europe being able to execute the actions required. The "infinite" recruitment capacity of Ruzzia, its unlimited manpower are all myths. The frog needs unfortunately more boiling - this is part of the price to pay for all the time Ruzzia has ignored treaties - you cannot negotiate with such a bad faith in front.

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024

Quote
Russian forces are likely to peak in late 2024, with increasing material challenges over the course of 2025.

[...]
 Russia faces significant limitations in the longevity and reliability of its industrial output. Of the tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, for example, approximately 80% are not new production but are instead refurbished and modernised from Russian war stocks. The number of systems held in storage means that while Russia can maintain a consistent output through 2024, it will begin to find that vehicles require deeper refurbishment through 2025, and by 2026 it will have exhausted most of the available stocks.
[...]

Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) has assessed an industrial requirement to manufacture or source approximately 4 million 152mm and 1.6 million 122mm artillery shells in 2024. Russian industry has reported to the MoD that it expects to increase 152mm production from around 1 million rounds in 2023 to 1.3 million rounds over the course of 2024, and to only produce 800,000 122mm rounds over the same period. Moreover, the Russian MoD does not believe it can significantly raise production in subsequent years

[...]

Beyond 2026, attrition of systems will begin to materially degrade Russian combat power, while Russian industry could be disrupted sufficiently by that point, making Russia's prospects decline over time.


legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 1368
Ukraine is becoming so desperate.


Ukraine suspends visa renewals for military-aged Ukrainians living overseas as punishment for NOT DYING in battle with Russia



https://www.naturalnews.com/2024-04-25-ukraine-suspends-renewals-military-ukranians-living-overseas.html
The Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs has announced that the country’s consulates abroad will be temporarily suspending all services to men aged 18 to 60 in what appears to be nothing more than a bid to force them to return home so they can fight in the war.

The country is currently grappling with a shortage of troops as they continue to battle Russia and hold the front line. The Russian army is currently much larger and better equipped than its Ukrainian counterpart, and Ukraine appears to be fighting a losing battle.

Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba explained the motivation for the measures in a statement on X, writing: "How it looks like now: a man of conscription age went abroad, showed his state that he does not care about its survival, and then comes and wants to receive services from this state. It does not work this way. Our country is at war. Staying abroad does not relieve a citizen of his or her duties to the Homeland."

The foreign ministry will be clarifying what military-aged men need to do to obtain consular services soon, but it is almost certain they will be forced to return home. A published letter indicated Ukrainian consulates will only issue documents to men in this age range abroad that enable them to return home to Ukraine, and the consulates in Prague and Barcelona have already stopped offering services to men of military age.

The state passport service issued a statement of its own indicating it cannot help Ukrainians abroad, saying: "Unfortunately, due to technical reasons, the issuance of ready-made documents in foreign branches of SE (State Enterprise) Document has been suspended."

According to the Eurostat database, around 4.3 million Ukrainians are currently registered in EU countries. Around 20% of them, or 860,000, are adult men.

Right now, Ukrainian men who are younger than 60 are forbidden from traveling abroad under martial law, but many are trying to avoid the draft by either attempting to bribe officials or by hiding somewhere within the country.
...



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