Topic: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] - page 216. (Read 56479 times)

Looks like MQ-1C Gray Eagle (upgraded predator drone) is the next "game changer" for Ukraine that's totally winning. And US military hackers conducting offensive operations in support of Ukraine, says head of Cyber Command

I'm not sure what ramifications would belligerent status bring to this, but pretty sure we're at the stage where neither Russia nor US would care about legalities much.

Iran has some disputed Islands in the straight of Hormuz and can claim 20km if internal waters around them, they threaten to close it every few years. Strait is only like 25km at it's narrowest, and Iran has a lot of land exposure around it Plus conveniently a third of the world's liquefied natural gas and almost 25% of total global oil consumption passes through the strait. If Iran gets its hands on some hyper sonic missiles, that can easily take out an aircraft carrier, that might be enough to change it's math to perhaps partial blocking of US military. China getting few hyper sonic missiles (which can take out an airfield) would instantly nullify billions in fighter jets and patriot missiles sold to Taiwan. Seeing how Ukraine is the most corrupt country in Europe, and with it loosing around 20% of its land to Russia i'd guess thousands of javelins, NLAWs and MANPADS can easily find their way to battle grounds where US is involved. Bottom line there are a lot of painful points Russia can escalate at in retaliation, and of course run away escalations lead from cold wars to hot nuclear ones.

Russia indicated that Ukraine was a red line for it, and cornered they really have no better option but to escalate, EU clearly indicating that it doesn't care much for the conflict and just wants it to go away, so we're only left with US still pushing it. Regardless of what happens (short of nuke war) Russia knows that it'll be warm (with gas/oil) and fed (grain) this winter, such certainties don't exist for EU. Knowing that, i just don't see how any escalation can make Russia capitulate, admit a loss and return to long term ruined economy, political unrest, shortages in high tech sectors (and most likely full collapse). That's why I'm confused of US end goal with such semi (but not too far) escalations, surely the expectation can't be of Russia folding and willingly collapsing, guess that's why Kissinger said what he said.

Super-funny the comment of the Mediterranean being connected. I guess then Taiwan is connected as well both on the east and the west, north and south through different oceans so all fine.

Some legal opinions state that selling weapons to a party in conflict is a legitimate trade according to international law and does not make you a party in the conflict.  It does not remove your "non-belligerent" status no matter the precise weaponry, quantity or use - much more questionable to call that "neutrality". To be honest, I think that the RF would not want the US to be officially a belligerent party.

https://lieber.westpoint.edu/ukraine-neutrality-co-belligerency-use-of-force/

In general, Ukraine is seen as a country unlawfully invaded and defending its territory from an aggression. Most legal opinions would claim that selling weapons to Ukraine is helping restore international legality rather than taking part in a conflict.

My personal view is that selling material that will be used to defend the Ukrainian territory is legal and does not remove "non-belligerent" claims, as long as it is not used to strike in Russian territory - again IMHO even that would also bee acceptable if targeting troops or means used for the invasion. That is why US and UK have been very reluctant to send their versions of MLRS (the HIMARS) which have nothing to do with the RF MLRS - much longer range, technologically advanced munitions.

So, for now, even M777 that are used within Ukraine are perfectly acceptable IMHO. The switchblades, Javelin, etc.. are pretty much defensive weapons just to provide infantry with a fighting chance against armoured groups.

On Iran closing Ormuz, I do not see how that could be a defensive act. Attacking or blockading ships would be an act of war and it would justify a strong response.

Hard to know how the items got out of 'Alina's apartment even if the story has any truth to it whatsoever, but there are certainly some options as to how that could have happened:

  https://www.bitchute.com/video/p2w0fp8WDmKf/

In related news, getting kicked out of the Jewkrainian 'Commissioner for Human Rights' for making up news is a truly impressive feat, but somehow this lady accomplished it.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-fires-human-rights-chief-perpetuating-russian-troop-systematic-rape-stories

It took a series of stories building up to "Russian Forces Rape Minors in Ukraine, as They Eat Stray Dogs which Ate Russian Corpses".  Ultimately she somehow managed to go one bridge too far.  Funny thing is that most of the gullible tards on this thread seem to have believed every word, and continue to do so to this day.  Looking through her works, I see a couple of the lady's fabrications which have been relayed here by the usual suspects.  'Cannot cure stupid' so they say.

It might initially seem so. Undercutting Russia in a proxy war without loosing a single American while making Europe totally depended on you, surely looks like a win/win. But there are no guarantees, the best think tanks can analyze the latest data live with best AI and machine learning but all they can propose is their estimated probabilities. Problem with that is if you're wrong you've actively pushed Russia and China together. The road to hell is paved with good intentions (This is well demonstrated by US sponsoring Osama bin Laden, and taking out Saddam Hussein only to create vacuum for ISIS to grow).

Russia drawing red lines over Ukraine/Belarus/Kazakhstan (Russian speaking countries) seems logical, on the other hand US getting billions from Saudi Arabia by selling them weapons and enabling war in Yemen, only to escalate conflict in Ukraine because US suddenly cares about freedom of Ukrainians seems insincere at best. Russia indicated that Ukraine was an existential threat to it and Putin’s Domestic Approval Rating Reaches Highest Level In Five Years seems to indicate that people support that idea. US picking Ukraine as a hill to die on just seems more personal than a logical decision, and trying to sell it as if Ukraine protecting all of Europe is just silly with Article 5 and most of Europe being in NATO.

Now to still try and make it work US need to continue to escalate the conflict (first Javelin will be a game changer, MANPADS, then Switchblades, then much needed M777 howitzers, now even more desperately needed HIMARS, next will be ) and as you previously noted everything comes at a cost. Where does that leave Russia, either sit back and do nothing or since US is setting a precedent that selling long range missiles is now acceptable practice and doesn't make you a party to a conflict, Russia can starts selling latest anti-air and anti-ship missiles to Iran, how much do you think it'd take for them to close the straight of Hormuz? I'm sure Panam/Egypt can use cheap oil and some good anti-ship weapons and would like to get back control over Suez and Panama canals. Or how about a huge multi billion contract to supply hypersonic weapons to China? Will the world be better off with that? Probably not, will it help if media can easily blame the big Russian bear for it? Unlikely. They keep pushing the line and the whole world is forced to be a spectator in this new race to annihilation over Ukraine/Belarus/Chechnya/whatever...



Well Taiwan is also connected to the Atlantic ocean through some body of water   don't get tied up on semantics, you need to see the forest behind the trees. Surely if US would deem in beneficial, adding the + to NATO+ is the least of the problems.



Have you considered why it is so? Why Venezuela, Lybia, Iran and Saudi Arabia are where they are? Or where those billions in aid and investments to needing countries around Russia come from? How Ukraine having higher corruption and lower GDP than Russia managed to totally revamp it's military in just 8yrs? Must be that ghost of Kyiv, or the soft power directing targeted fund exactly where they're needed.

That part is easy, if they fight back against the glorious liberators - they're obviously nazis.

And because there are Nazis in Luxembourg.

While we're at it, let's invade Luxembourg, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, and North Macedonia on the grounds of them being illegitimate NATO members because "Atlantic".

Since when is Ukraine on Atlantic?

Of course, they have sent there T-62 to protect their loving brothers from the bears and deers of the forests.

https://youtu.be/LCZU1XdNb_E?t=613

They are also recycling arguments:

https://youtu.be/H4uLLSuUeDc?t=112

It can't possibly have anything to do with the fact that countries near Russia have suffered its invasions and occupations including the 50-70 years of brutal soviet totalitarian regime that's still in living history. Nah, it has to be some conspiracy from the evil West.

https://ontheworldmap.com/oceans-and-seas/atlantic-ocean/north-atlantic-ocean-map.jpg

Turkey, Italy and Greece are connected to the Atlantic ocean through the mediterranean sea.

What is the support in Taiwan for joining continental China's government? Answer me.

Where is Turkey, a NATO member located? An Italy, and Greece, ...?

Do you know what NATO stands for? North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Now, where is Taiwan located? Answer me.

Countries that support Russia (Africa, Middle East, South America and some asian countries) have a low quality of life, have a low level of education which means their society is less educated, have a low-quality healthcare system, have a high level of corruption, have a high level of nepotism, have a high level of crime.
Soviet Union closed borders to its countries to make them live in swampland, to not let them see a high quality of life that was outside the USSR, once the borders were open, people started to travel and started to experience new life, they analyzed the difference in the quality of life between the USSR and West. Do you know where emigrants from post-soviet countries go to work? In western countries, they send money from western countries to their countries, they have increased their wealth, built new houses and increased their quality of life. That's why they are afraid of Russia, they don't want to go back, instead, they want to join the western family.

Well, under that premise, you could argue that this war is actually helping US do so.

The US is not the only country in the world and, as far as I know, has until now only frozen assets when faced with very serious hostility. Freezing assets is not for free - the US is also getting a reputation hit on this.

 
Why would US let RF prosper, especially considering it's proximity to China? You know what powerful nations want right? That combination is too dangerous and needs to be stopped at its infancy. Much easier to kneecap RF, take Ukraine out of it's sphere of influence and then it'd be great if that could sustain itself by forcing RF to continue to sell its resources to EU through Ukraine (so UA gets paid transit fees). That's the benefit of having a pact, on top of that you can freeze RF assets and bankrupt it anytime you wish. (That is unless they decide to stop playing such game for some reason)

On regards to the RF becoming a dictatorship "in the future", I think that Moskva has sailed.

I think you have depicted the problem, but there is a solution. It is difficult for the RF to assume that its influence is in decline. It is not just the US, it is that all the world is moving ahead and the RF is not keeping the pace. Among other things, if you have the GDP of Italy and spend 11% of it in military you need to take it from schools, doctor, civil research, ... It is a problem of mindset.

This is some free consultancy for the RF:

Your objective is competing in a world that is growing fast. If you are left behind your people and the nation as such will not do well, no matter how many wars you fight.

- Develop the east. The territory is immense, the opportunities endless, you do not need to look further. I understand that as of now, there are political reasons why Moscow / St Petersburg would rather not do that, but long term it causes tensions.
- Attract investment, both local and foreign. You cannot do without it. See next point on how to enable that, but, as a hint, you should be seen as a pacific partner and stable on that regards.
- Put in place the enablers of growth: Rule of law, fair and speedy justice. This implies you need to get rid of the Cleptocrats and local despots, no way around that.
- Keep your strengths: good universities, good research, ability to manage complex projects, ...
- Use wisely the money that is coming from exporting natural resources. Try to build up the chain of value (e.g. do not export crude oil, but refined products).
- Do not enter into unnecessary wars. Your territory is quite protected and other than that your real threat is terrorism (the real one, not the guys with the "tatoos").
- Do not spend 11% of your GDP in weapons - it is not needed.

Life could be very different in the RF.

What is known about the situation in Severodonetsk last night.

The head of the Lugansk OVA, Sergei Gaidai, reports that the fighting in the city continues, it is not blocked, although he acknowledged that the Russian Armed Forces and the People's Militia of the LPR control most of Severodonetsk.

The Rybar Telegram channel writes that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have moved away from residential areas to the industrial zone of the Azot plant.

Ramzan Kadyrov said that the total cleansing of Severodonetsk had been completed, "the enemy in the city had been defeated."

Military correspondent of the State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company Yevgeny Poddubny writes that the RF Armed Forces and the People's Militia of the LPR have taken control of the northern, eastern and central parts of the city, and the cleansing of Severodonetsk from the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been completed in 85% of the territories of previously occupied city blocks. In addition, Poddubny reports that the Russian Armed Forces have reached the Severodonetsk CHPP.

According to the American Institute for the Study of War, the Russian Armed Forces control the northeastern and southeastern outskirts of Severodonetsk, continuing to fortify within the city. It is also reported that the Russian Armed Forces and the People's Militia of the LPR are fighting south of Severodonetsk in Toshkovka, Ustinovka, Voronovo, Borovskoye and Metolkino, trying to take the city into the "cauldron" from the south. This link is for May 30, a day behind.

Summarizing the above, it seems that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have no chances to keep Severodonetsk (or it has already been taken). Do you want to talk about it?

ps Chechens of Kadyrov in the SBU building in Severodonetsk

Wow, so much expression and sharp questions. I don't care about your Russophobia, I'm not trying to please you here. Я pyccкий и мнe нe нyжнo oдoбpeниe oт зaпaднoгo oбщecтвa дeгeнepaтoв, кoтopыe цeлyют нeгpaм нoги, cтыдяcь cвoeгo кoлoниaльнoгo пpoшлoгo, чecтвyют пeдepacтoв и пoдвepгaют диcкpиминaции бeлыx гeтepoceкcyaльныx мyжчин пpocтo пoтoмy, чтo oни бeлыe и гeтepoceкcyaльныe. At some point, the West took a wrong turn, it was during the Great Depression. You forgot your traditional values and Christian virtue and sold your soul to the Golden Calf. Now the Dollar is your God and "make money" is your only mantra. Now you are flying into the abyss, but Russia will not follow you. We do not need your land and we are not afraid of NATO, just put your missiles away and let us live on our land as we want. And if the answer is "no" - we will take all your Nutella and Russia will be from Lisbon to Tokyo, including London.

Easiest way to start another war, just offer Taiwan to join NATO sit back and watch the "fireworks" fly. (Don't those poor Taiwanese deserve the freedom cookies and guarantees of freedom??)

You seem to be genuinely curious, and at first sight appear to have good points. But keep going with your line of thinking, now ask yourself why the closer the country is to Russia the more it likes US/NATO and dislikes Russia (Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Georgia), yet the further it is from Russia (Africa, Middle East, South America, Asia) the less they like US and the more they like Russia? That's the beauty of soft power, you can exploit other countries and direct resources to targeted countries to win over their "hearts and minds". The beauty of that is that there is no way Russia can do anything about it they just cannot compete on the soft power field. If winning "hearts and minds" of Ukrainians worked, US could then start another revolution in Egypt or just finish the ones in Venezuela/Turkey/Iran etc... and then direct those resources on winning "hearts and minds" of Belarusians or Kazakhs... Only options for Russia is sit back and keep loosing countries in its sphere of influence and ultimately be torn apart, or radicalize become a dictatorship and switch the playing field to hard power. It was a matter of time, Russia lost all of western Europe like that but Ukraine/Belarus/Kazakhstan was the red line for it, which US gladly crossed, and now here we are. Had it not been for Ukraine it would've been Belarus, and after some media work, people would gladly sacrifice their economies for the freedom to those poor Belarusians.

You do not see it do you? Looting is a sign of an undisciplined army. The ones who loot are the ones who disobey orders and run if the fight is "too hard".