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Many prominent American and European military experts and journalists do not share this optimism at all and argue that Ukraine is doomed to defeat and loss of territories in any case.
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NRC - June 2, 2022
Ian Buruma"Ukraine's demand that Russia withdraw from all their territory is a legitimate move. But it's a move, not an ultimatum. Once negotiations begin, compromises will have to be made. This could mean that Ukraine renounces its desire to join NATO. It could also end in Russian rule in Crimea and parts of the Donbas".The New York Times - June 4, 2022
Ross Douthat"But given the state of the war right now, the more likely near-future scenario is one where Russian collapse remains a pleasant fancy, the conflict becomes stalemated and frozen, and we have to put our Ukrainian policy on a sustainable footing without removing Putin’s regime or dismantling the Russian empire".The National Interest - June 4, 2022
Hugh De Santis"Having come to the defense of Ukraine, the United States and its allies must persuade Kyiv to bring this war to an end, including by imposing limits on further military aid as leverage. A Ukrainian military victory is not in the cards, and a negotiated outcome is the only realistic goal. To achieve it, Zelenskyy and his advocates in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states must accept that Ukraine will be a neutral state and that it will concede to Russia the Donbas oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as Crimea. Given the sentiment of Russian separatists in the Donbas, retaining the region would be fraught with continuing tension in the future"....
Die Welt - June 5, 2022
Edward Luttwak"The curious and strange thing about Russia is that even if it didn't have nuclear weapons, it would be impossible to achieve a Ukrainian victory in the sense that the Russians would be forced to withdraw completely, maybe even from Crimea".
Are you aware of what it means to be accepted into the EU? It immediately triggers a number of large aid packages for any region that is below the average wealth, income or employment. I am no fool, this comes with strings attached, but it would be in Ukraine's hands to make good use of these resources and become a marvellous place in the next decade with growth and thriving cultural life.
Ukraine will not become a member of the EU in the next 15-20 years for many reasons: disputed territories, a huge external debt, a high level of corruption, numerous violations of human rights, oppression of people based on their nationality, etc. If this is not enough for you, then study the comments of the EU officials.
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French President Emmanuel Macron: "Ukraine bid to join EU will take decades".Dutch PM Mark Rutte: "Unlikely that Ukraine will become a candidate for EU membership".Italy PM Mario Draghi: "Almost all major EU countries oppose granting Ukraine candidate status".
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Now, what is the alternative for Ukraine? Become a satellite of the RF and a personal possession of Adolf Putin? Is that the alternative to start making the changes and advances required to be a full member of the EU? The choice is obvious.
Of course, while hostilities last, Ukraine would not be able to join the EU. The process of joining is a complex one and requires extensive agreements, it usually takes years plus to achieve the conditions to be admitted if your country comes from the former USSR and is still under development. Despite this, there is no issue in reaching a support and help agreement or an special treatment for Ukraine - they have earned that certainly. There are many middle-ground situations for Ukraine that do not require full membership but still can make a big impact in the economy of Ukraine.
I seem to recall that Spanish negotiations to join the EU took around 4 years and costed reforms in the fishing fleet, the industry and the agriculture. And, despite enduring some corruption from certain parties, it certainly made the economy thrive. I can see Ukraine following a similar path, hopefully avoiding the mistakes.
You may be surprised but even Belarus had EU aid programmes during COVID. On your interpretation of the news as "Ukraine being doomed to defeat and loss of territories", it seems like you are reading half of the text only. The RF may eventually get to steal some land from Ukraine and call that a victory, but that happens only after 40 or even up to 50 thousand RF soldiers die for Adolf Putin, a chunk of the RF airforce becomes planting pots for Ukrainian sunflowers, a chunk of RF's economy dissolves and more than half a million well prepared Russians go to work to other countries, the RF gets more and more isolated in diplomacy and can only trade at a discount with partners that are willing to risk sanctions and is unable to find anyone willing to make a significant investment. I personally do not call that a success, but that's just me.
As said, there are winners on this war, the RF is not one of these.
Is that a victory?
I despise corruption, but in cold and analytic terms, the risk occurs when the money is taken outside the country to hide. If the regime is corrupt but buys local assets or spends the money in the country, it will still enter the local economy.
Thats why you should read Perkins book I linked earlier
Some quotes from his book:
“I’m haunted every day by what I did as an economic hit man (EHM). I’m haunted by the lies I told back then about the World Bank. I’m haunted by the ways in which that bank, its sister organizations, and I empowered US corporations to spread their cancerous tentacles across the planet. I’m haunted by the payoffs to the leaders of poor countries, the blackmail, and the threats that if they resisted, if they refused to accept loans that would enslave their countries in debt, the CIA’s jackals would overthrow or assassinate them. I wake up sometimes to the horrifying images of heads of state, friends of mine, who died violent deaths because they refused to betray their people. Like Shakespeare’s Lady Macbeth, I try to scrub the blood from my hands. But the blood is merely a symptom.”
“The English major looked me directly in the eyes. "Stop being so greedy," she said, "and so selfish. Realize that there is more to the world than your big houses and fancy stores. People are starving and you worry about oil for your cars. Babies are dying of thirst and you search the fashion magazines for the latest styles. Nations like ours are drowning in poverty, but your people don't even hear our cries for help. You shut your ears to the voices of those who try to tell you these things. You label them radicals or Communists. You must open your hearts to the poor and downtrodden, instead of driving them further into poverty and servitude. There's not much time left. If you don't change, you're doomed."
Several days later the popular Bandung politician, whose puppet stood up to Nixon and was impaled by Bucket Man, was struck and killed by a hit-and-run driver.”
“I thought about the core tools we EHMs used in my day: false economics that included distorted financial analyses, inflated projections, and rigged accounting books; secrecy, deception, threats, bribes, and extortion; false promises that we never intended to honor; and enslavement through debt and fear. These same tools are used today. Now, as then, many elements are present in each “hit,” although that likely is evident only to someone willing to delve deeply into the story behind the story. Now, as then, the glue that holds all of this together is the belief that any means are justified to achieve the desired ends. Alike
government; instead, they would draw their salaries from the private sector. As a result, their dirty work, if exposed, would be chalked up to corporate greed rather than to government policy.”
I fail to see anything new on any of this. An inflammatory text full of accusations, empty of documents or proof and quite biased. Do not get me wrong, I am not saying that all those thing never happened, just saying that the RF taking Ukraine does not look like a solution to any of them.
