Topic: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] - page 228. (Read 77430 times)

NS2 was dead already. "Germans call for [...] opening" is bullshit, a few people protesting won't make that happen.

Let's say Putin decided to shut NS1 off in January. Would that change Germany's policies towards Ukraine or Russia? There is no indication that it would. That's what I mean by exhausted blackmail potential.

As for lost gas and whatnot... you're assuming that Putin is a rational actor, which he clearly is not. If he cared about Russia's economy he wouldn't have invaded Ukraine, or would have retreated when the crushing sanctions became evident. He will happily run the country into the ground to feed his imperial ego. Blowing up a pipeline, or like Russian propagandists now propose - blowing up gas tankers, underwater fiber cables, etc - to harm the "enemy" is small potatoes compared to the overall destructiveness of the regime, so your feigned outrage as to why we would even think that Russia could do this makes no sense.

I know all who are commenting here have already picked their truths by virtue of pledging allegiance to one side or the other, but just in case someone is reading here that's truly just trying to make some sense out of this all:  
Let's cover leverage first. Surely we must all agree that the point of any sanction/limitation is to apply pressure in order to achieve desired results. By definition, both sides loose from sanctions/limitations, as if trade/agreement wasn't beneficial for both sides it wouldn't have happened in the first place. The big question with sanctions is who looses more! When you tell your kids that no one is going to the movies until they finish their vegetables, the point is that you incentivize them to eat their vegetables, of course you can easily achieve not going to the movies by blowing up your own car but that was never your goal in the first place!

Germany wants Russian gas, Russia want to get paid. Timing of gas payments are not critical to Russia at all (they don't care if they get paid in summer or winter), where timing of gas deliveries is extremely critical to Germany (that's why all gas pipeline maintenance is done during the summer months)! No one cares about gas usage this very day, German gas consumption in September is just above the minimal in August, and Germany has plenty in reserves to cover short term, so Russian doesn't have any leverage for this moment. The leverage comes in play at peaks during Dec-Mar. That's when Russian gas is of critical importance, social unrest and monetary pressures will be at their all time high. Any clown that tries to convince anyone that Russia blew up their own pipeline in September when demand is just starting to climb is just trying to make an imbeciles out of their listeners.



To address your point, whether intentionally or not, you're confusing the RU pumping in gas to fill German reserves that could be used later at critical time vs actually sending gas during that critical time! Just because Russia didn't want Germany to build up their reserves with RU gas during non-critical warmer months and turned off the gas, clearly doesn't mean that RU for some idiotic reason decided to remove any and all advantage it has for the coming most critical winter season where its leverage over Germany would've been at its peak!

Long term, there's absolutely no benefit to Russia to make German gas deliveries dependent on other EU states, think Germany can even consider Brexit? Gerxit? Gexit? when all their gas deliveries go though EU?

I mean Biden straight up spelled out that he'll stop the pipeline, member of the European parliament thanked USA in the post about blown pipeline, and now you try to question why US would do it?? US presidents public intentions are not good enough for you?

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Yep just because you claim that all blackmail potential has been exhausted (during the third lowest demand month) we don't have any critical thinking and just totally believe you!
(26 September 2022) Germans call for Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline opening now that there's nothing to open tell me again how that's a benefit to Russia? I'm not even talking about hundreds of millions of m^2 of gas Russia lost there

^^^ The mad US dog is simply doing what has to be done to maintain the banking system.

Russia uses money that is gold backed and has real value.

US money is based on banking system lies and broken contracts.

The reason for the strength of the US banking system is that people believed the lies and made it strong. As the truth comes out, the banking system will fight to maintain its strength, while all Russia wants to do is trade freely with the rest of the world.

If we ignore the propaganda crap and take a sober look at things, it suddenly turns out that the United States is the main beneficiary of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the European Union is its main victim.

The US and Europe are not only NATO allies, but also competitors. By fomenting and sustaining the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States strengthens its economy and weakens the economy of the European Union. The US military-industrial complex receives large orders, and the European military-industrial complex is suffering from an energy crisis and cannot turn around at full strength. After the sabotage on the Nord Stream, the German industry can be confidently put an end to. No, Europe will not freeze this winter, but it will be largely deindustrialized. And next year, in addition to the current problems, Germany will have a problem with millions of unemployed from the stopped energy-intensive industry - metallurgy, chemistry, cars, etc. Germany from the locomotive of the European Union will turn into its brake. The European Union is fucked.

Uhm... make sure you're sitting down for this one: Russia had already turned the pipeline off. They've done it multiple times for ridiculous made up reasons. They've exhausted the blackmail potential on that one. Closing it off for a few weeks apparently just makes Germany work even harder on arranging alternative supplies, instead of wanting to cave (stop Ukraine weapon supplies, open NS2 etc), who could have possibly guessed.

Blowing it up though creates a few new potential scenarios, like threats to other pipelines etc. Again, this is Russian propaganda staple, what with apocalyptic "Europe freezing" scenarios etc. I'm not sure why you're now doing 180 from the gas blackmail and claim Russia couldn't have possibly done it. I guess trying to drive a wedge between the US and Europe is the new propaganda pivot. Good luck with that. Nothing unites more than a common enemy, especially a deranged lunatic like Putin.

My mistake certainly, I did not use the right name (you get one merit for correct my facts and one more for presenting a funny hypothesis, that is my usual policy), but in fact we are agreeing that there is a path through Ukraine. If you like picture, see that big 140 BCM line in the middle of Ukraine below? Well, that is a gas pipe with a capacity of 140BCM. Nord Stream is 55 BCM at maximum capacity.




So, still the argument that you are failing to address remains:

Short term, Germany is no more fucked or dependent on Ukraine that it was before, since the NS were pretty much closed from the RF end. The Nord Stream was mainly a RF doing, because Ukraine asked for payment for the pass through their territory, paid with German money. Old news.

Long term:

- Ukraine can be either integrated in Europe (EU or other treaty), in which case will favour the passage of gas. If you try to fuck with Germany in the EU, you are likely to run into trouble. There are many examples including Greece, Poland (which is close to getting internal sanctions) and Hungary.
- Or (much less likely) occupied by RF who does not need it to close or open the valve anyway.

So curiously, the long term effect is only the loss of a valuable infrastructure which damages the German investors in the project but not much more, that is why the retaliation hypothesis makes perfect sense. Also an infrastructure that is precisely in non-NATO territory.

Now, why would the US sabotage the pipeline?
- To fuck like you say his main ally in Europe? (stupid)
- To force Germany to be dependent of Ukraine (not impossible, but still fucking your allies).

The second one makes a 25% sense let's say, but the risk of an international backslash against US in case of being found clearly exceeds any veeeery long shot "advantage".

Bottomline, as it is now, it looks like international terrorism from Adolf Putin's Psychos and the Chief Orcs.

 

You're economic genius, and should apply as advisor for oil industry...unless suchmoon already copyrighted the idea

How about German centrist tagesspiegel?
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/wirtschaft/kremlnahes-medium-deutet-us-beteiligung-an-pipeline-lecks-an-8687140.html

But alas how any source could possibly compare to your empty claims.

Ohh what a clever idea, think so far this one takes the prize, following that logic instead of just turning the pipelines off, Russia should just start blowing all of them up, you know that'll really get the gas prices going up. You should've been more careful disclosing such ingenious ideas, now Qatar/Saudi Arabia/Iran/Venezuela might find out just how lucrative it can be to blow up their own most valuable pipelines!

Gas prices going up benefit Russia. They've done this trick many times, including recently with the NS shutdown shenanigans. But what do I know, maybe Biden blew the pipeline up to help Putin finance the war. Weirder things have happened.


Sure, Murdoch's tabloid knows best. You can also quote Tucker Carlson, another Murdoch employee and Kremlin's darling.

Unless "beyond repair" means "Germany doesn't buy enough gas from Russia anymore to justify the cost of repair", which might actually be true. But that invalidates the rest of your conspiratardery, doesn't it. Europe's not gonna freeze this winter, etc.

Already loving these!  

You seem to have some misunderstandings about Nord Streams. Nord Sream 1 does NOT go through Ukraine. Both Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pretty much go side by side from Russia to Germany


There are 2 pipes that make up NS1 and 2 pipes in NS2 for a total of 4 pipes. Both pipes of NS1 and one pipe of NS2 are confirmed to have been blown up. So far seems like one pipe in NS2 is holding pressure but we don't know the extent of damage to it. Regardless, estimates to fix range from few months (meaning after winter when it's useless to Germany/RU) to never.



Thanks for not sending tanks to Ukraine and pissing them off, but because you nationalizing some refineries, now I'm going to do what Biden promised to, and blow up this pipe to make sure that no RU gas fill those refineries, and so i loose all leverage over you. Is that what you expect people to believe? Is this your final answer?


You disappoint me, weakest one so far!! No aliens, or Germans were some kind of triple agents that why RU decided to take them out? At least please tell us that you're some kind of underwater pipe expert? These kind of weak arguments would be a hard sell even for the most retarded mass media consumer!

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19945821/nord-stream-damaged-beyond-repair/

Since it was the US that probably did the destruction, what they are doing is showing Germany that they better not make deals with Russia or something worse might happen.

Imagine if the other NATO countries in the area suddenly started a war with Germany, simply for Germany calling off its Russia sanctions.

Except that "UA attacks" is likely bullshit. For example Russian MOD showed a propaganda video where they bombed a pylon of an abandoned WWII bridge on the Dnieper and claimed it was a Ukrainian boat or barge or whatever.

As for "handing it over"... it's a Ukrainian power plant. There is no reason whatsoever for Russia to hold it hostage, other than terrorism. Not dissimilar to holding a school full of kids.


Not sure why I need to pick one of your straw people. Russia is well known for its resource blackmail. How about you pick a lane and call things their real names, not "special operation" or "it's actually a good thing but the US did worse so it's ok if it's a bad thing".


The pipeline hasn't disappeared. It can and likely will be fixed and Kremlin will surely be extremely gleeful about it.

Yep, military exercises were held this summer in this area of ​​the Baltic Sea with the participation of deep-sea divers and underwater drones, I think that was when explosives were planted under gas pipelines.

Interesting theory I reckon, the US being the one blowing up the gas pipe to ensure that Germany does not use it. However it does not make sense, since they anyway have Nord Stream I which is already shut off. If Germany / EU would want RF gas, they can still get it. Following the argument, the NS I goes through Ukraine, but Ukraine would not interrupt these due to risk of EU becoming less friendly.

 Blowing the Nord Stream II looks like the RF army doing to kind of "make a point" on regards to EU aid and aligns well with a country that is under a Junta.

In my view, this is an act of war. The Orc army could have chosen any other target right? A bridge in France, a factory in Germany... Why do you think they would hit NS II? The answer is very simple: it is not in NATO territory and does not grant a NATO mobilisation which would end any expectation of even a technical "victory" in the invasion.

Now, what does YOUR critical thinking tell you about this?

Not gonna lie...  This latest attack via the Nord Stream Pipeline is a bit concerning.  I'm worried that we might be starting a world war and becoming environmental terrorists all at once.  It's hard to believe this could happen in today's world, but here we are.  From tweets by politicians we can see that the United States is being called the orchestrator of this attack and it appears some of our European allies are not happy about it.  I'm really concerned about how much damage the current administration in the US is going to cause over the next two years.

The only moron here, who defends a genocidal man who threatens to use atomic bombs and start a nuclear war is you.

Clown.

We'll see. So far, it looks more like Russia is increasing its military grouping in Ukraine by at least 2.5 times, due to the mobilization of reservists with military service experience.

Meanwhile, the referenda took place and their result was quite predictable. A special military operation may soon be transformed into an ordinary anti-terrorist operation.

You sir are an idiot (or, hopefully, just a UA troll trying to suck the world into a nuclear war, which is at least understandable). In case it's the former, Medvedev is war mongering, his argument is pretty much if US/EU escalates this further and sends thousands of M1 Abrams and other tanks rolling into "new" Russian territory, RU will defend itself with nuclear weapons. Which was pretty obvious to everyone even Zelenskyy says he doesn't think Putin is 'bluffing' over nuclear threats (which completely baffles me, please send us tanks but he's totally serious and will nuke us next? Shouldn't he be saying completely opposite, Putin is bluffing please send us tanks you'll be fine, it totally WON'T trigger WW3? can someone explain this one to me ). You, on the other hand, claiming NATO members would have negative radiation effects thus lets turn this into planetary catastrophe is beyond moronic. I can safely speak for the rest of the world, that we all are very glad that it's not up to you, we've been through this before and would very much like to live through this and through all of the following nuclear stand offs, and if you want to die feel free to do so on your own, non of us want to be dragged in with you!
 

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If you can't bear responsibility of UA attacks on a nuclear power plant you can hand it over to Ukraine or some sort of international control. Love it! Absolutely perfect logic, nothing more needs to be added!

Your kindergarten propaganda is tiresome. Pick one, either, US leveraging it's alliance and status of its dollar as a global reserve currency to apply pressure everywhere, and Russia is leveraging it's resources, OR US is blackmailing with its alliance, finances, technological dominance etc etc etc and Russia is blackmailing with its resources. I'm fine with either, but you can mix them up for a cheap propaganda shot.

The reason RU cannot "blackmail" UK or say Australia is because it doesn't have a pipeline to them, do you now see how having a pipeline in the first place is kind of important to the whole "blackmailing" part. No pipeline, no more "blackmailing", with which I believe you uncovered the whole point here, good job!

You seem to be very unsure as to what you're talking about, so many questions...


Logic being that they had the city surrounded and in control of all roads out of it.


Again, Russian forces are in control of it. If they don't want or can't bear that responsibility they can hand it over to Ukraine or some sort of international control. It's a civilian object useless for military purposes unless the military purpose is nuclear blackmail.


Funny how you pretend like this is something new (unless you've been in a cave the last 20-30 years and it is indeed new to you). Russians have been using gas and oil for blackmail for decades. Mostly against smaller countries like the Baltic states so it wasn't as newsworthy until they hit Germany.

I'm starting to get fed up with the nuclear threat:

Medvedev raises spectre of Russian nuclear strike on Ukraine

If it were up to me, I would be prepared to launch a massive nuclear counterattack the moment Russia drops a single atomic bomb on Ukraine.

Ex-CIA officer says Putin is 'completely cornered' and the chances of his using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine are increasing 'by the day'

Since the negative radiation effects would affect neighboring NATO member countries, I would consider the attack as triggering Article 5.

Surely this would end in a planetary catastrophe, but you can't live your whole life under the threat of a bully without reacting. I'd rather die with dignity than live on my knees.