Topic: Ryans' log - page 20. (Read 50746 times)

Good evening! Here anyway...
Well, on the bright side, we finally have some hourly divergence signaling the likely end of the (iii) of 5. This also fell a little short of my target making the idea of Bullish invalidation a little less likely, but we are by no means out of the woods yet. We should see a bump to $515-525 over the next 12-24 hours. Judging by the weak buying during this decline, I feel it may stay toward the lower end of that range, but I welcome a surprise for this one. Below is the current, very extended 5th wave and targets for (iv) and (what I expect to be) the final wave down for now


The current rise is taking a 3 wave structure which is corrective, but since this is a larger degree than the previous 4's over the last day or two, we should see a 5 waver up after the b completes. A target of $515-525 is what I'm looking for.

That is exactly the Bullish scenario in my counts that we are in danger of invalidating.

Ryan any opinion on this latest count by DanV, he seems to be going with the "large ABC" idea:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/HM51GS2Y/

(have to scroll all the way down in the comments to see his chart update)

RyNinDaCleM, thanks for this thread. I've picked up a lot. Not that I can wrap my head around Eliot Wave yet, but just general reads on the market, sentiment, divergences, etc. Good stuff.

To think this thread probably goes under the radar of a lot of people here... scary stuff. When you have periods like we've had recently, when good news and sentiment starts to stop having any effect, you have to fall back to TA for guidance. And TA, right now, is grim reading for bitcoin. Ryan's work corroborates with a number of other quality TA guys, they are all looking towards a decline to the $420 support at least, and all hell breaking lose if that gets broken.

Once again, thank you for sharing your work!  Much obliged!

Target broken by $3. This is well within an acceptable margin of error, imo. However, with that low comes a very troubling view on the current situation. That divergence I spoke of in the last update has now been neutralized, which is a bad thing. I have revised my count to reflect this, and since it's only a mildly lower low on the EWO, this leads me to believe that there is more downside since no divergence has been created in this drop itself, to signal a 5th wave. Add to that, the weakness from the buyers (evident by the slow, weak bounces), this has the potential to get very ugly in the near future. I left the red count in case I'm wrong with these recent turn of events, but I added a possible count (purple) that is becoming more and more likely. This new count has at least 2 more waves lower. This leads to potentially more panic driven selling and the possibility of further margin calls which can make these targets even lower. The purple count is already dangerously close to the Bullish invalidation of $420.27 using only typical retraces and extensions. A little bit of elongation of the waves can make for some tough times ahead so this is a very crucial time.

The chart


A zoomed out shot to show the neutralized divergence that I was speaking of


If $420.27 is broken, all bets are off! It signals the end of any chance of a big rally any time soon (anything more than a suckers rally aka dead cat bounce). It will eliminate the possibility of the C and become only a III down which will lead to eventual targets below $339.

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Just for the record, The times depicted in these charts are not meant to predict the time of a wave. I draw the waves out to show the general direction my counts say we are going. Elliott Wave has no sense of time except relative time compared to other waves of the same degree. If I tried to label the projections for time, many of them would be right on top of each other, quickly becoming an unreadable chart.

Looks like we could bottom anywhere between about $360 to $420, which would be healthy. I'll go massive long if we get down there.

Thanks, that is very helpful to see longer scale

So it seems now like we are in the end of v of (iii) of 5, right?

Hi Ryan,

Do I understand correctly than even in your bearish scenario there is a bounce up from around $504?

Yes, the longer Bear count invalidation would be at $683.26, but the invalidation point I was referring to was for my short term sub-waves (this particular count, at this time). Since I believed it to be in a 4th wave of some degree, the invalidation I specified was the wave-1 low of the same degree.

Wouldn't bearish (red) scenario be invalidated only if we cross 670 again? This is the only way it can't be counted as correction anymore.

No movements are meaningless in EW! It happened therefore someone, somewhere, had emotion about it. It did not get that 61.8% (which is at $520.73) but there is a good possibility that there is more to come. The invalidation of any Bullish scenario still lies at $420.27 (still a ways to go) and a wave-2 can retrace up to 100% of the wave-1. So by no means does a 61.8% hit mean the correction is guaranteed to be over.

To start this post, I will first post this old chart


The purple and red are the only two valid counts that remain in this chart.
Purple is in a definite lead right now, however, the bounce is rather weak, but this could change over the next hours to days. I have a few scenarios with some new invalidations for each.

The target I posted yesterday was hit, and passed through until it hit my original target almost perfectly. Why not?? 


Now this leaves me with some different possibilities for the next moves
To me, it appears that there is still one more down to complete the impulse. Labeled in red, I have outlined a path once the (iv) completes. Target is between $500 and $515 with invalidation of this continuation  at $576.44 (wave-(i) low). This invalidation point is only good if it's broken before getting that 5th wave down in the red count.
There is presently divergence between the current lower low and the $538.38 low from mid-June. This divergence is visible on hourly as well as the 4hr charts and is not in any immediate danger of being neutralized. This means that if my red count is correct, we should see a significant bounce (as a minimum) or a reversal (in the Bullish case). Which one it is, can only be determined by some invalidations at a later time.


The following moves would then be as follows:
If Bullish, there is no way to give a target for a wave-1 high until it is underway, at which time I will begin giving targets based on the price action at that time.

If a Bearish continuation is to happen, then the chart below will explain what I see happening next.


Trade on!

So what do you make of the morning dump to $525?

Was it so quick as to be meaningless?  Or does that get us the 61.8% retracement complete and ready for whatever is next?

Are we there yet? 

No problem, Thanks, and I hope you're learning as we go!
Feel free to ask questions

Thanks for the update!  You do a great job of explaining your takes.

I haven't updated in a few days because nothing has really happened to change my counts. Since the potential wave-4 went higher than previously estimated, I have revised the wave-5 target. This remains as my primary count until it is invalidated.