Topic: Ryans' log - page 22. (Read 50746 times)

Ryan, if we fail from here, is it the GTFO moment?

Thanks for pointing that out!

They seem to be in the same vicinity as stamp, however, there is a clearer bullish corrective picture there.


This is no guarantee that the a-b at the left side can't become a 1-2 of a larger degree, but it appears more Bullish than the western exchanges and even OKCoin

Perhaps of note is Huobi has already taken out its June 15th low.

Your solid 530 - 550 support combines well with this http://imgur.com/G1BNNpr On the 10 day (auto/hourly) chart candles. I'm guessing they cross somewhere??

Sorry for the poor capture.

Pretty solid support around 530-550.

Thanks for the post(s). Keeping my bull dreams alive. I'm expecting a rebound at 560. If that doesn't happen, i'll stay clear of hourly check ups.

Well, my feeling of a higher correction was off to say the least...
Still, my projected count is holding beautifully. The divergence on the hourly is getting out of control and the 4hr still remains. There are a couple of options as to what the corrective move was. Since the drop today still looks corrective (3's not 5's) We could be seeing a running or expanded flat where B makes a lower low than the impulse. Or we could be seeing nested waves lower which could prove to be quite bad for knife catchers.

The top two shown here are the flats I'm referring to.


The over all chart I have been posting lately.


This is the possible close counts of the last few days The red is the nested waves I was talking about. The Blue is an irregular/expanding flat and Black is the running flat.


That last chart still holds around the same target for the bottom of the red extended 5th of C of (2) for the Bull count and the (1) of III of (C) for the Bear count.

Stay safe!

Edit:
Chart fix!

Whoops, missed that post when I was looking through. Thanks!

Thanks! It seems I'm accomplishing my intended goal! I'm glad I'm getting more of you guys interested
Below is a conversation with seleme about the same thing and some links to some great info on EW.

It's just the corrective channel within the larger downward channel

Like this

I've really enjoy your analysis thus far; you have me quite intrigued.

This thread has inspired me to do a little studying, would you be able to recommend any literature that delves into elliot wave analysis ?

Why do you draw an upward channel when the trend looks downward?

As I said last update, I believe a retest of $600 is still in the cards, but it's a matter of if the market can pull those cards soon enough or not. This is a close-up of the corrective move thus far. I was unsure if the A wave shown was the entire correction since it's a 3 wave structure, but since the following B wave was also 3 waves and not a new impulsive 5 wave move lower, This has me leaning toward a push upwards for the conclusion of the (iv) before heading down in the 5th wave to complete the 3. $600 is in the zone of "typical" retracements but is by no means a guaranteed target. I can see this falling short of 600 since there is still a definite lack of buying pressure. A C wave can be considered complete as of the 61.8% Fibo line around $593.76 as long as there are 5 sub-waves within it. Divergence will be found on either (OR both) the 30/60 minute charts signaling the likely top of the 5th wave of C.



I drew a channel in this chart as a way to find alternate targets. A good place to look is the 50%/mid-line and the 100% line (channel top). If it hits the channel mid-line as the top of C, it will be after the mid-line is above the 61.8% Fibo line (horizontal red line) since a C wave requires a minimum of 61.8% the length of wave-A.

I hope I explain these things well enough for everyone! Don't be afraid to ask questions

Good luck, and see you tomorrow

Well, the price eventually pushed through my target by about $5. Divergence held and we got our bounce. All else remains on track as of right now, heading toward the lower end of the $500's. Still no $600 retest, yet, but it does still look to be in the cards before more selling pushes us into the next wave down.  I will update if anything changes, but for now, enjoy the consolidation.

Chart

Not much has changed in the market. This drop is nearing it's end, but it's slowly pushing lower. It's a little short of the target, but the divergence is enough to consider it complete (along with the fact that (iii) is longer than (i)). We should see a bounce sooner rather than later as we look test $600-610 in the coming days. If the longer Bullish correction or the extended Bear market is to continue, the market will have trouble moving far beyond these levels, and we will see a further decline to the mid $500's. This is the same chart as the last only it now includes EWO (showing the divergence) and updated price action.



The bullish triangle previously shown, is only invalidated as far as I had it drawn. The thing about triangles is that the trend lines can be redrawn until an actual invalidation happens. In a normal situation, this triangle would be invalidated at a break of $538.38, however, this is a unique circumstance in that the final wave-E of said triangle MUST remain above the wave-I high at $548 to keep the Bullish impulse alive. If the trend line is flat, and the E reaches back to the lower trend line, the counts must be revised and the likely count will then become an ABC where $683 was the top of a larger A, the triangle is a larger B and we will see a C go up breaking current resistances up to $900+ before we see the large wave-(C) fall back to the $339 levels.

Something like this:


Risk on! ...or off, it's up to you

Edit:
As I was typing, target was hit! Divergence is still present so all remains the same unless the divergence is neutralized.

That would have been an excellent entry from an EW perspective. It had all the qualities of a great entry. A decently hardened support to place an order at, the second lowest price you could possibly get if we complete the bullish triangle and a clear, tight stop if it had continued lower. Those are the virtues of triangle trading

Glad to see I'm not the only one to notice the second triangle. I'd literally already had those lines on my bitcoinwisdom chart before the drop and it nestled perfectly against the bottom line.

Since the small triangle was invalidated with today's spike lower, this chart is still building off of the Bullish extended 3rd wave and the extended Bearish C wave counts. To determine which it ultimately is, we will have to wait a bit longer, but for now, this is one of my top, near term counts. As always, targets are found using Fibonacci exclusively. Targets are embedded in the chart and assume typical retracements of 38.2%  for each of the 4th waves. These targets can vary due to atypical retracements, but it gives an idea where this larger impulse is heading.



Today's market action produced the first lower low in 2 weeks. This together with no sign of bullish divergence means that further selling is likely to continue for the coming days. If selling continues through the weekend, especially if it escalates into heavy selling, the weekly MACD could cross down which would likely drive price even further down. The MACD cross isn't very likely, yet, but something to watch out for.

On a brighter note, that Bullish triangle is still valid. If we continue to drop, it will soon invalidate, but the price stopped right at the lower trend line, so we'll see what happens. Remember, this re-validates the Bullish invalidation of the wave 3 from 420.27-683.26 if it finishes and breaks up. This drop counts as the C wave in the chart below.




Get your trade on

Elliott Wave has no sense of time

... and sorry I haven't been updating in a few days, I've been very busy. I'll try to get an update this evening (US EST)

Looks like after taking a loooong time, that downmove is happening. Good call!