Topic: Ryans' log - page 21. (Read 50746 times)

True but Im talking about the IV wave on the largest scale. I think the chinese markets are clearly forming a triangle.


https://www.tradingview.com/x/urDTDXeq

Oddly enough, The western exchanges is the only place where a triangle is still valid!

Huobi has more of a wedge going on with it's descending lower trend line


Whereas Stamp has a pretty decent triangle tracing out


The obvious lack of conviction, in either direction, is ideal territory for triangle making. My biggest argument against the triangle is all the 5 wave moves down and if you break volume up into specific buy and sell volume, the sells are far outweighing the buys over the last month. I guess we'll have to wait and see!

Just looked at everything since November on the Huobi chart... Are you talking about that big triangle? Where we are at the upper trend line right now, and looking to plummet nearly to the post ATH crash levels to complete? Yeah, BS broke that following Gox down the rabbit hole.

Hey Ryan,
Nice work here. Im tracking that triangle count too ^^
feels to me that there is really no strong motive in this market at all.
what are your thoughts on a larger scale triangle consistent with the Chinese markets? makes sense to me only the west doesn't fit the puzzle.

In the mean time, until that $607.90 is broken, this is still the count I'm going by. This is a close up shot of the same chart I've been following for weeks now. Targets are in the chart.



Have fun!

Very short term, there is a decent chance that $607.90 will be broken and I will be bullish leaning for at least a rise to the mid $600's where I will reassess the situation.
Until $607.90 is broken, I would say I'm generally neutral until something more compelling happens, though I may have more of a bearish bias, atm. This is mainly because of the rise off the $339 bottom appears more like a 3 wave structure to me. I'm talking about the first rise to $548. From an EW standpoint, this is bearish and everything up to $683.26 was a B or perhaps a large (a) of an even larger B. The latter is why I don't discount the possibility of a more substantial rise above $800+ in the short-mid term. Due to other technical factors, however, I don't see that happening, but those technicals are moving every day, so it's not impossible and I may change my mind. Until that happens, I trade in/out with 50% or less of my trading funds (I adjust to manage risk and 100% is too hard to get in and out without serious slippage)

So overall, you're still kinda bullish short term.

Remember this chart? It seems to be holding quite well, but it could have thrown you off at ever step, haha.
The red count followed for a brief minute then the black held up to it's target  and settled there for a bit before jumping to the blue target where it has at least had a minor top for now.


An update to the still valid (for now) count.


Invalidation of that last chart has not happened yet, but if it were to, these would become my two top conflicting counts. The red count is a revised version of the second chart in this post, should invalidation happen. It has the wave (1) of III complete and we are currently in the wave-(2). The black count is the Bullish correction, completing the wave (2) of III up. This count looks a little better now because the rise yesterday was a 5 wave structure off the bottom which leans in the direction that the $607.90 invalidation point might be broken in the coming days. Targets are on the chart. If Bullish, we should be looking to test the recent $658 top for the  iii of 1 of (3) of III after this small correction completes. If Bearish, we should be looking around $620-640 for the top of the red (2) before heading down further in the bearish (C)-wave.


Remember that the above image is only after $607.90 is surpassed. Invalidation of the Bullish counts remains at $420.27. Invalidation of the revised Bearish count is a break of $658.88.

Below is an extra Bearish count that has us going for the $900's  before seeing a large C wave to new lows. This is just for posterity reasons.


Oh, and happy trading!

thanks. not exactly the worry, I am not departing with my coins, just looking at good times for shorting my btc-e btc mt4.

Sorry, I'm a little busy today!
Bitstamp has an invalidation at 607.90. We eeked that out for now, but lets see what happens. I have a count that has us completed with this impulse lower which I will post up when I get home (I'm on my phone right now). Hopefully I get home before anything serious happens :-S

Ryan could you post some upside invalidation levels, thx.

It absolutely can truncate! Technically, a truncated 5th will not even make lower lows than the 3, so $540 will still be considered a complete, non-truncated 5th. The targets I provide are just typical Fibonacci support levels. These are obviously not concrete targets, just what you would normally expect. To find where a 5th could end, you would find the price difference between the beginning of 1 and the end of 3, then multiply by .618. Then add (or subtract in a down move) this to the end of 4.

Simple example: wave 1 starts at $1 and wave 3 ends at $4 = $3 difference.  Now lets say that 4 retraced back to $3.15.

3 x .618 = 1.854
3.15 + 1.854 = 5.004  This would be the typical 5th wave target.

I have a question. In Wave 5 does the target have to go down to the 520 area or can the 5th Wave truncate higher? For instance at 540?

OK!

EW can work absent large fundamental news.  But most technical analysis fails when some large event takes place.  For example, the COIN ETF opening up could generate a great deal of buying pressure right when you expect a wave down.

That is what this thread is about! I am showing how EW can be used as a trading tool. For the most part, The analysis contained within is solely based on EW and the Fibo relationships of those waves. This was never intended as a general TA thread. I only attempt to prove the merit of EW here.

Yes, the count implies another wave lower to complete either:
The C wave of the bullish correction to the rise from 420.27-683.26
OR
The wave-(1) of the large (C) wave should we continue in the bear market since December

Sounds like you're speaking EW, and speculating we may be in for a wave down beyond $550 now.

The wave 4 correction. A correction to the correction



I know the timing of my drawn in lines for the targets are starting to diverge from the actual price action. I will remove these lines whenever the next wave down toward the gray box completes. I am merely showing that I have not altered any targets since I posted them, around the 23rd of July.


Edit: Just to clarify, The correction might be done. It can also turn out to be an A of a larger ABC. And as I said to seleme, there appears to be one more up, but this is on a tiny scale, so it's hard to determine with absolute certainty.

And what would happen after this correction is complete?  I can't tell if you're talking about the correction to the long term bull market, the correction to the recent rally, or some other correction.  Depending on the time frame your words can be interpreted to mean anything.

I just want to throw out this quick chart.
I just noticed this on the stamp chart.



Correction might be complete!

Not exactly!
I don't want to advise anyone on what to do with their coins. I don't like having that kind of pressure nor do I want to be blamed for a bad trade resulting in losses. I occasionally get my own and that's enough

That said, My chart that I have been updating for this whole drop has one more wave lower before I can make that sort of decision. I have been trading in/out for the last few days rather than holding a position since this is knife country and there isn't much indicating that anything more than a bounce has been right around the corner. This bounce appears to have one more wave up coming, then we will be into the final leg down for C (if Bullish correction) or (1) of (C) (if the Bear market continues in a larger C-wave) Once the next wave down completes, I will absolutely update with a new group of targets to look for along with invalidation points which will give clues as to which direction the next weeks-months will go.

Once bottomed in the next wave lower, if we fail to get anywhere significantly higher, THAT would be the GTFO moment. Don't panic during the drop because you can always expect a retrace to get out higher. Perhaps with losses, but less losses than if you happen to panic right before the market turns.

I hope this eases your worry!