Topic: Ryans' log - page 23. (Read 50746 times)

The Black, blue and purple are all the same count with alternate endings. The orange is it's own and the red is it's own. If we go up, it doesn't necessarily mean the bull run is started, but it would be looking much better.

This is what BS shows


This is what I get for OKCoin


OKC looks like another wave up to complete C is necessary

Seems like a lot of possibles currently. Any way to narrow down what kind of diagonal it is? I was looking at the 30 min chart of OKCoin which is also showing this diagonal and it seems the first leg up might have 5 sub-waves.

re the possible 4hr triangle: On the 4 hr log scale chart on bitcoinwisdom you can draw a different (longer) triangle than you have on that 2nd chart from post 81, through the tops of the B, 2, and ii. Currently we would be just on the top line. The bottom line would connect the 1 and i?

This could absolutely be an ending diagonal for C of II, in which case the target I posted yesterday would be a bit on the short side. It could also be an ending diagonal for c of b of C in the orange triangle shown in the second chart.


Is the other narrowing pattern on the 4hr chart, the triangle chart (the 4th one) from post #81?

This may help, too!


The gray box is the overlap that invalidated the orange count unless the triangle completes.

I hope this all makes sense!

Is it just me or is the stamp hourly making some kind of rising diagonal shape. If so, is this a leading diagonal of a wave 1 up, or is it an ending diagonal? Also there's a larger narrowing diagonal shape on the 4 hr.

This thread is great! Please continue.

I just want to add...
If we are going down in that C wave from the first and second pics in that last post, this is what would be lying ahead as long as $420.27 holds. 


I just want to make that clear before everyone in here calls me some perma_ _ _ _. I just calls it like I sees it.

That is all! 

As always (well, most of the time ) target has been reached. And as always, this is no guarantee that the c-wave is done, however, the divergences are once again, rearing their ugly heads indicating a topping situation. If the Bearish case that I have been updating for the last few days continues, We have some interesting times ahead.

This is the next stop on the Bear train; destination, downtown.


There are a couple of stops on the way, but that is the general target to expect.

Remember, this is part of this larger count.


Or this one


Should we find enough support to stave off a more serious decline, then the next likely scenario is a triangle. This triangle has some unusual structures within it, but it is a possibility.


This would re-validate the Bull count where $658.88 was a 3 of the same degree as the 1 off the $339 bottom. This is because the rules say that the final wave in wave-4 must not enter the price territory of wave-1. I don't want to get any hopes up, but I figure this may ease some worry when/if we break below $600.

Now, I realize this is a little controversial, but it is a real possibility so I must post it.

Trade on, my friends!

There are two 2's labeled. This is because they are unknown, right now. Confirmation of the left 2 comes when we make new lower lows with a 5 wave move. Confirmation of the right 2 comes with a move up from the b in a 5 wave structure.

Note that B's can make new price extremes, however, since they are a 3 wave structure, it is a known b (and not a new impulse down) even with lower lows.



Since "a" in this chart seems to be a 3-waver, it's more likely corrective and not a new impulse up.

Targets lower all hit, and here is the bounce. I'll be watching this to see how it develops. Invalidation of the bearish mid term is at $658.88, and short term invalidation at $642.57.

This would be a bullish alternative to the count in my previous post. Invalidation of the bearish mid term is a break above $658.88



Then there is this.



This is the uber Bullish count. Why uber Bullish, you ask? Because, Every one of those 1-2's needs a corresponding 3-4 somewhere above the respective 1 (without overlapping) and finally a 5th to complete the impulse. A very extended 3rd impulse.

Sorry I was at Verizon and what do ya know? I had a terrible cell signal there  

Anyway, I threw this chart together from my phone, so the labels are off from the last chart I posted.
I was starting to think the full impulse was done due to divergences present in RSI and EWO, but now I see the EWO looks more like a 4th so I think this count is good. EWO returns to the zero line  for a 4th wave (marked in the chart). My targets have held very well so far, although building that chart from my phone got the time aspect all screwed up.

Here is the update of that same chart.


The target for the 5th remains the same ~605-610. After which, expect a bounce near $630.
Things are looking quite Bearish for the shorter term. The last couple of Bullish sub-waves have been invalidated and as the targets are hit, more will come. I'm not calling the bull dead, but signs are pointing toward the mid $500's to complete the larger ABC from the second chart in post #20. The Bullish count invalidation remains at $420.27, so well away from that.

This is the bigger picture of where we could ultimately be heading in the coming days/weeks.


The 3/4/5 are only preliminary targets and will likely need revision as it progresses.

This count also works for the extended Bear market, should we still be in it. That 5 would be the 1 of III of (C) shown here.


I will get a Bullish shorter term alternative up in a little bit.

Trade on, my friends!

edit:
Explanation in next post

Yes! I have been quite profitable. I have a set of indicators that is specifically for telling me which side to take profit in. When it's green, I take profit in BTC and red is Fiat. Then I use my standard set of indicators to trade by while sometimes going to my back-ups to help make the decision easier. EW is just one tool I use, but it's such a good probabilities checker that I use it extensively. I don't usually post my indicator set because if people begin to understand what I use, then it will start cutting in on my profits. Sorry, but that is where I draw the line. I too have some situations where my initial plan was the best one, but something in my charts said otherwise and I listened to it. It happens! We all have losers and we all make mistakes. That is part of trading. The most important part is to make the winners count.

You have to trust your ability in reading the indicators. But experience is what allows you to do so. It's kind of a catch 22, but you learn quick when money is on the line.

Hey Ryan, once again, thanks for sharing your trading theory knowledge with the forum.

I was wondering, have you had success with trading? Whether it be on stocks or the crypto markets. I'm intrigued, I find that indicators are great for assisting trading, especially if you can realise that it isn't panning out quite as expected and exited if appropriate.

Trading ultimately boils down to having the balls to act upon the information or instinct that you have, right?

Many a time I've bottled out of investing/selling only to find that my initial gut feeling/information was correct.

It is a very useful addition to the traders toolbox. Good luck and feel free to ask if you need help!

Thanks, I see some big traders using it regularly but my few attempts to figure it out failed miserably. Might have to take some real time to read about it.

This is a good starting point http://www.forexhit.com/learn-forex/elliott-wave-principle.html
This gets a little deeper http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm
This one will help with the most difficult part of EW... Corrections! http://www.fxtimes.com/education/elliott-wave-basics-variations-in-corrective-waves/

As with anything, it takes a lot of practice. I counted every chart I came across then counted it again. When you think you have it, you count it again. What I like to do, to confirm I have the best counts possible, is to count it out in a higher time frame for the basic structure, then go to a lower time frame to confirm that each of my waves has the proper fractals making it up and fractals of those. I also try to avoid the "modern" EW as much as possible. It is used because of leverage markets where you can see odd movements. But to me, it just feels like bending the rules to fit a chart that is difficult to count.

Ryan, what's the best resource to read about EW?

OK

Edit:
Follow along with the thread, then! Elliott Wave Theory is not by any means perfect, no TA is, but I have already shown to have some near bulls eye calls with my targets in this thread. I'm really not doing this as a predictive thread or an advisory thread, but more to show how to use EW/Fibo and that, if done properly, has merit as a way to increase probabilities and limit risk.
If you still don't want to take the time out of your busy day to read a couple of posts per day, then buh-bye and thanks for stopping in to voice your opinion. You can just keep blindly trading and hoping for the next bubble to save your capital from yourself.

If you'd like to learn more, then just ask! I will be happy to explain the psychology behind what makes EW work. Just don't dismiss something as impossible because you don't understand it.

Thanks!

i dont see how elliot wave could possibly work on bitcoin or any other security.