Ryans' log - page 24. | Bitcointalksearch.org

Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay

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Hi Ryan, you are probably right that I used term "triple top" incorrectly - I meant to imply very modest decline, about $10 to $619. It is actually still within frames of your bullish flag.

Neat observation on that flag

. I am quite convince we are in long term bullish trend now and very short term it seems that we are going down a bit - like $10 - but I had problem figuring likely mid-term scenario. Your bullish flag seems to fit very well

.

RyNinDaCleM

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Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on July 13, 2014, 05:32:00 PM

Triple top. Bearish short term seems more probable imho. Do you view it same way?

Not exactly the same, but a little, yes! While there seems to be no buying pressure (but it is Sunday), it looks more like a bull flag when viewed on the chart. It's all a matter of what is the stronger pattern.

Bull flag and invalidation of the short term Bull count

Triple tops are generally longer term patterns. The longer the pattern, the more reliable it is. It's being denied the rise 3 times with moderate declines between that produces the reversal. Now, if we were to finish the bull flag and fail to go anywhere then, I would definitely call that a double top because there were two different occasions where we failed to get past it separated by both time and a decent decline.

All of that said, I do feel slightly more bearish, personally. The indicators

Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay

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Triple top. Bearish short term seems more probable imho. Do you view it same way?

RyNinDaCleM

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To avoid confusion, I had to relabel the Bullish count to allow for more degrees of waves. The count is Identical to the previous bull chart I posted yesterday, but with slightly different labeling.

Yesterday, I used Fibo to find the target of the 3 of (3) from the bullish count (post #60). After taking a closer look and projecting out the remainder of the current sub-wave, I feel that if we are in the bullish count, we will far overshoot that target. The top of 1 would be in the vicinity of 645-650 with a measured pullback to around $625 for the wave-2 low. This would put the new wave 3 of (3) of III at about the target mentioned yesterday and would still have another wave up to complete the (3). Confused yet? Tongue

Here are the charts to help explain better
Yesterday's Bullish chart

This is the new labeling of the same chart

Now that we're on the same page, I projected out the remainder of the wave-(i) to around 650, with a pullback to around $625 for the (ii)

This leads to a target for the (iii) around the same target I posted in yesterday's chart with yet another wave up to go. So I hope no ones head exploded with that.

For the bearish case, we could be nearing the bottom of the first wave down in the next series of impulses lower. If we top out before breaking $642.57, this starts to look more likely in the short term.

All invalidation's remain the same, so I didn't add them to the charts.

Edited for clarity

Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay

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Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on July 11, 2014, 07:22:40 PM

Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on July 11, 2014, 07:00:31 PM

The RSI on 60 mins chart (BITSTAMP) entered overbought zone couple hours before, suggesting we may have peaked in high $630s and are heading down short-term.

BTW, great thread, Ryan. I really appreciate you update so often and with such thoughtful posts. Keep up the good work!

Thanks! I will keep on keepin' on for as long as it takes.

The RSI can embed itself in overbought/oversold territory for long periods of time. Just because it gets there, doesn't mean imminent reversal. Just keep that in mind (in case you didn't already know that Wink

).
Trading based on overbought conditions can have you sitting out for a while and missing potential gains, especially in bubble mode. Obviously we aren't there yet, but I just wanted to make that point.

Yeah, I know it can be overbought for a while, especially for btc. Anyway, it seemed for me to be a sign of weakness it went to overbought with such a small raise. But apparently I was wrong - upward movement became more energetic now.

I am not a day trader and do not worry, I do not plan to sell my modest btc position anytime soon. Currently looking to add more to my long position during nice correction. For a while it looked like we could see high $500s again (like $580-$590) but I am not sure anymore.

RyNinDaCleM

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Quote from: Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay on July 11, 2014, 07:00:31 PM

The RSI on 60 mins chart (BITSTAMP) entered overbought zone couple hours before, suggesting we may have peaked in high $630s and are heading down short-term.

BTW, great thread, Ryan. I really appreciate you update so often and with such thoughtful posts. Keep up the good work!

Thanks! I will keep on keepin' on for as long as it takes.

The RSI can embed itself in overbought/oversold territory for long periods of time. Just because it gets there, doesn't mean imminent reversal. Just keep that in mind (in case you didn't already know that Wink

).
Trading based on overbought conditions can have you sitting out for a while and missing potential gains, especially in bubble mode. Obviously we aren't there yet, but I just wanted to make that point.

Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay

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The RSI on 60 mins chart (BITSTAMP) entered overbought zone couple hours before, suggesting we may have peaked in high $630s and are heading down short-term.

BTW, great thread, Ryan. I really appreciate you update so often and with such thoughtful posts. Keep up the good work!

RyNinDaCleM

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Legen -wait for it- dary

This could be a potential topping point if the bearish count is to continue. Divergence present in the 30min chart suggests that the 2 is done, or nearly so. Now, the 30 minute divergence is not as reliable as the 60 minute, but this being a smaller degree wave, it can give early signs of an upcoming turn. The fibo target was 630-645 for the wave-2 with invalidation of this count occurring at 658.88. The target has been reached, but that is not a guarantee that it'll turn here.

Some bullish factors are:
-As oda.krell pointed out, the converging D200 and D50 SMA's are providing support and will continue to do so until breached.
-The 50 crossing up on the 200 (aka Golden Cross) can spark a rally to kick off the v of 3 from the bullish count. This is still a couple of days away, but something to watch out for.

Now, for the chart Pr0n

The bearish situation as it stands

The Bull if we continue going up in v of 3. Target found using two different Fibo methods.

Cryptopher

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Keep it dense, yeah?

Yeah markets with little to no volume aren't very fun for traders acting on indicators, however they provide a great opportunity for snapping up some really cheap coins. This is especially great when there is another market e.g. USD where you can instantly dump some or all of the coins for a huge gain.

Of course, these speculative buy orders tie up funds while you wait, but it's surprising how often these dumps occur. Not even two months ago somebody sold 15000 LTC in the LTC/GBP, 11,000 of which were sold at £0.11, so what, about 18 cents a piece. Litecoin was trading at around $11 a piece at the time. Absolute madness.

RyNinDaCleM

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Quote from: Cryptopher on July 11, 2014, 05:15:18 PM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on July 11, 2014, 04:47:17 PM

Quote from: Cryptopher on July 11, 2014, 04:34:54 PM

Ah I see, that will explain why it looks identical lol. Do you know of any decent charting resource online that covers the GBP market on BTC-E? I'm disappointed that Bitcoinwisdom didn't add them, but since their addition to BTC-E the GBP market has been fairly quiet.

Unfortunately, no! Tradingview.com is a nice site but they don't have any GBP markets for Bitcoin. They have most of BTC-e markets but again, not GBP.

Ah yes, I used Trading View once or twice in the past. I'm surprised that nobody has charted GBP, just for completeness if anything.

It's a shame, I mean the market depth in GBP markets is shallow, with a very thin order book, but it's nice to see the historic data as time goes by. I've made some nice wins via intra-exchange, inter-fiat markets for BTC and LTC thanks to the thin order book. In some cases you can make huge returns, have to be high speculative and patient, but eventually somebody comes along and dumps a load of coins.

The problem with such a thinly traded market is the volume. If there is no volume you end up with HUGE spreads (where profit can be made IF someone comes along, as you said) and TA is nearly impossible. Let me show you what I mean.

DRK/USD on BFX

Sure, it's nice to see what happened, but it is very difficult to make trading decisions based on that

Cryptopher

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Keep it dense, yeah?

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on July 11, 2014, 04:47:17 PM

Quote from: Cryptopher on July 11, 2014, 04:34:54 PM

Ah I see, that will explain why it looks identical lol. Do you know of any decent charting resource online that covers the GBP market on BTC-E? I'm disappointed that Bitcoinwisdom didn't add them, but since their addition to BTC-E the GBP market has been fairly quiet.

Unfortunately, no! Tradingview.com is a nice site but they don't have any GBP markets for Bitcoin. They have most of BTC-e markets but again, not GBP.

Ah yes, I used Trading View once or twice in the past. I'm surprised that nobody has charted GBP, just for completeness if anything.

It's a shame, I mean the market depth in GBP markets is shallow, with a very thin order book, but it's nice to see the historic data as time goes by. I've made some nice wins via intra-exchange, inter-fiat markets for BTC and LTC thanks to the thin order book. In some cases you can make huge returns, have to be high speculative and patient, but eventually somebody comes along and dumps a load of coins.

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: Cryptopher on July 11, 2014, 04:34:54 PM

Ah I see, that will explain why it looks identical lol. Do you know of any decent charting resource online that covers the GBP market on BTC-E? I'm disappointed that Bitcoinwisdom didn't add them, but since their addition to BTC-E the GBP market has been fairly quiet.

Unfortunately, no! Tradingview.com is a nice site but they don't have any GBP markets for Bitcoin. They have most of BTC-e markets but again, not GBP.

Cryptopher

legendary

Activity: 1789

Merit: 1008

Keep it dense, yeah?

Ah I see, that will explain why it looks identical lol. Do you know of any decent charting resource online that covers the GBP market on BTC-E? I'm disappointed that Bitcoinwisdom didn't add them, but since their addition to BTC-E the GBP market has been fairly quiet.

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: Cryptopher on July 11, 2014, 03:49:00 PM

Hey Ryan, thanks for sharing this information with the community. Where do you produce those graphs in your original post? It looks like Bitcoinwisdom, but not quite. I know that you can plot markers on wisdom, but not too sure about the layout.

I see that you have posted some other screenshots that are clearly from Bitcoinwisdom, but not sure about the others.

Cheers.

Nope! None of my pics are bitcoinwisdom. There are serious issues with the plotting of lines and I'm not 100% sure the formulas are accurate for the indicators offered. I do use it to watch some alt coins, though. I use SierraChart which has a Bitcoin feed. I get Stamp, BFX, BTC-e, OKCoin, BTCChina, and Gox (which is irrelevant now). I would like to splice the Gox 2010-12 data into my Stamp data files, but otherwise the Gox data is useless.

Edit:
To illustrate what I said about bitcoiwisdom, this is a screenie I took a while ago of DRK. Those lines are terrible. I just can't trust it for TA. I know that oda has crisp lines for the BTC charts he posts (perhaps the problem is with the low prices of the alts), I have always liked the useability of SC.

Cryptopher

legendary

Activity: 1789

Merit: 1008

Keep it dense, yeah?

Hey Ryan, thanks for sharing this information with the community. Where do you produce those graphs in your original post? It looks like Bitcoinwisdom, but not quite. I know that you can plot markers on wisdom, but not too sure about the layout.

I see that you have posted some other screenshots that are clearly from Bitcoinwisdom, but not sure about the others.

Cheers.

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1009

Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: oda.krell on July 11, 2014, 08:56:22 AM

1d SMA200 turning into support, with the help of SMA50?

... probably too early to say with certainty.

That kind of support could hold the bull count alive

oda.krell

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1d SMA200 turning into support, with the help of SMA50?

... probably too early to say with certainty.

Tzupy

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Thank you for posting China analysis too. My point is that since the Chinese are more bearish these days and they seem to lead
the market down, the bullish scenario might get invalidated in China first. I see the market as being at a turning point where it has
to decide for a completion of wave 1 or to resume wave C (which IMO so far has been truncated, in the bullish scenario).
Also I believe that a flash crash to the support of 540$ won't invalidate the bullish scenario, if it holds then a wave 1 peak of ~800$ is possible.
The lower below 540$ it drops, the higher the probability of resuming wave C with a healthy capitulation well below 340$.

RyNinDaCleM

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OKCoin is missing data but for the most part, the Daily chart is very similar to Bitstamps chart. Holds much of the same count(*), a red MACD and has the same divergences.

(*)Due to the missing data, it is next to impossible to determine what the wave-1/A did and if there was overlap. Which in turn, makes it difficult to make accurate counts for probabilities.

Lets see the shorter period charts! Since the missing data at the 1/A is... well... missing, I can't put a 3 or 5 wave count to help with the more recent counts. So assuming that the higher high can be a valid 3 OR a B this is what I come up with.

A very interesting pair of discrepancies between OKCOin and stamp in this chart. Notes are embedded. If I were to work out a target for the red C, it could quickly invalidate the bullish count. It's not guaranteed to do so, but it would be close.

In conclusion, it is a bit more bearish looking from a quick view of the chart. I will continue to watch this chart to see what else I can find, for either case. I will also check out the BTCChina chart and report back if there is anything seriously out of place.

RyNinDaCleM

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Quote from: Tzupy on July 10, 2014, 12:43:23 PM

Have you tried to do the same for Chinese exchanges (OKcoin, Huobi)? They look bearisher than Bitstamp lately.

I have BTCChina and OkCoin on Sierrachart, but I do not have Huobi. Bitcoinwisdom is terrible, so I won't go there. I will put together a similar analysis today and post it up before today's close.

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