Topic: Ryans' log - page 26. (Read 50747 times)

The student becomes the teacher...I love it. Keep up the awesome work and never lose that TA (and especially EW) enthusiasm and interest. You are gifted at it.

All the best,

Ah, a visit from the guru himself! 

Thanks, a lot, wave! I wouldn't be where I am today without your help and insight.

Great work, Ryan! 

It really depends on the time frame. When zoomed out (looking at a longer time frame) there are a lot of possible counts and alt-counts, as I'm sure you can tell from this thread. When I have an ideal count, such as right after an invalidation, real-time trading works very well. As the waves progress, I can actually trade in/out with every wave through a cycle. There is still a certain amount of error with targets since EW/Fibo isn't perfect, but that is why I preach to ALWAYS use indicators to back up your trades. This very short term trading is only advisable during a larger move, since fees will kill profits if there isn't enough to offset the difference. By larger move, I mean times of high volatility where the waves are quick to develop and 5%-10%+ each way.


@segeln
Really? I mean, really??
I have to reset my entire color theme?
I could probably do that. I feel the black BG is a little easier on the eyes, though.

@kehtolo
Thanks, and I shall try!

Great thread Ryan. I'm just posting, so it saves in my list. Great work though, keep it up!!

Hi Ryan,
please try to post the Charts in bright not in black. I suppose they are better for reading/watching
Thanks

Thanks for doing this.

Question: Personally for you how often has Elliot wave theory proved to work?

This is the Bullish alternative to the first chart from my post, yesterday (Post #17).
With a breach of $604.21 this is the last stand to keep the Bull alive. Nested 1/2's aka an extended 3rd wave. This count has us retesting the lower end of the $500's before heading much much higher mid to long term. The count and target in my previous post still works for this count as well as the Bearish alternative from post 17. We will need some further confirmation to determine which count will last.

This is the close-up of the whole correction since $683.xx. Note that I did not apply any Fibo to find the bottom of (2) yet. I want some confirmation before I dig deeper here.


This is the expanded view to show the nested 1/2's of the Bullish alternative


This is the expanded view of the Bearish alternative. This is in play because the recent low of $538.38 invalidated the wave-III leaving only the nested 1/2's option for a Bullish continuation. Since that low fell below the top of I from the Bullish alternative count (above) this count has been moved up on the "likeliness scale" by a few clicks. This is the doom and gloom count that has us revisiting the low $300's again, eventually.


What invalidates these counts?
A move above $683.26 before a breach of $604.21 invalidates this particular Bearish alternative (I have others that are a long way from confirmed such as the first chart from the OP).
This particular Bullish alternative count is invalidated with a move below the $420.27 low from May.

'till next time, Happy trading!

Seems the 1 is now complete, falling about $0.50 short of my target. Both 1 hour and 4 hour charts have divergence for that last wave down. Now we will identify the next target to expect.

First, here is the updated view of my last chart posted complete with the divergence drawn in light blue


This is the Fibo retracement of that 1 to get our target.


The typical retracement of a wave-1 is between 50-61.8%. Again, this is just textbook levels and it can fall short or go beyond. Look for $635-$645 as the wave-2 high.

I am getting another post ready to show two conflicting counts that the count shown here works for. One has us going much lower if $604.21 is broken, the other keeps the bull alive and fighting even with a break of that semi-critical level. Stay tuned!

I guess I should have just kept my original target of $627.xx. oda got his retest and we've since recovered a bit. But I'm not totally convinced the market wants to continue higher at this point. There is a definite lack of conviction thus far.

As I said in the OP, to keep things fair, I will be posting bearish counts as well (Sorry Bulls, it's just a fact of markets). Since there are no new developments in price action as of yet, I will use this opportunity to do so. This count builds on the second chart from the OP. The time aspect is not adhered to, so don't expect new lows by September.  It likely won't, but since there isn't enough room on the charts unused space, I just drew it in. I used Fibo to find all these points. If we make lower lows now (especially below $604.21), it makes this an even more plausible future outlook.



A fifth wave down (to complete 1 of III) would be heading toward the red box in the $596-612 range, where we should see a nice bounce "back to normal" ~$640. To find the wave-III target, I used Fibo and multiplied the wave-I gross price movement by 1.618 which puts us to about a $428-450 range. I won't go deeper than this until something happens, but it could get ugly if we fail to break $685 soon. "Soon" is a relative term. It doesn't mean today or even this week, but we definitely won't have 6 more months of sideways between $604.21 and $685. It just won't happen.

This is a close-up shot of that 1 of III

Triangle: Invalidated
Flat: Invalidated
Zig-Zag: Still valid (From post #7&8 )

A break below $604.21 invalidates the Bull count from post #7&8


More to come...

Yet another option!
Bitcoin also loves triangles. You guys are far too indecisive

Triangle are continuation patterns. The direction the triangle is entered, is the direction the triangle breaks. As labeled in fig.1, the triangle will break up. However, if the triangle breaks down, then the count would be as fig.2

fig.1



fig.2


Again, these are possible variations for the correction. The correction could be finished as my last post shows. Confirmation of the flat abc comes with a rise above $558.9 before the triangle shown here completes.

Since the b retraced nearly 100% of a, it is very likely that we are in the midst of a flat abc. This means that the target has shifted up by about $10 to $637.xx.
These are the type of unexpected issues you run into with EW, and why you don't want to use EW solely. You won't always have the count on the first try, so you therefore will be revising your counts as new data is available.

Thanks for the kind words, everyone!

oda, As long as the market doesn't lollygag around, there is plenty of time to achieve both in the next few weeks. The $627 fibo target could be considered that retest of the D200. Bitcoin loves to overshoot a typical target, so it can get below my target. Or if the support is there, then it may not touch it. If I were to go into projecting the next higher high, we should be seeing 670-685 for the top of this impulse (larger degree than what I laid out last night) in the coming days. We will be banging our heads on this resistance for a bit in a consolidation before ultimately breaking it to see short term highs in the low to mid $700's. in the following weeks.

After work, I will report back to see how my counts are holding up. So far, Stamp is following nicely with a b-wave high at $649.08. We'll see what happens!

Great thread, RyNinDaCleM.

I continue to be rather skeptical of EW theory, but admit that this could be largely due to my own lack of working knowledge of it.

Okay, for some actual input: I half expect another re-test of the daily SMA200 in the coming weeks. Currently at $611, but it'll continue to be declining for another month or so because of the inherent lag, which means the further that re-test lies in the future, the more drastic it might be (possibly going to high 500s again).

On the other hand, because of a (so far) rather reliable pattern of local peaks, I think it's likely we will see an intermediate high in late July, above the previous $683 top. I'm wondering now if there's enough time (3 to 4 weeks left) to go through both: a drop to (sub?) $600, and breaking $700.

I am not worried.Thank you very much for your EW-Explanation,one of the best I read so far here at bitcointalk.og

I completely agree. I think this run is make-it-or-break-it time. If we fail to break the $1k level, I think there is a high possibility we will be retesting the $340 low when this bull run turns south.

This is not a prediction thread
I give targets to look out for

Long term, there are a lot of factors that go into such a target. So many that I don't like to speculate what an eventual top to top all tops may be. I will say that a 1% of paypal to as much as 1% of global commerce is a very realistic target, but I don't like to go deeper than that.

As we approach the current ATH, it is a very critical time, imo. If we meet too high of resistance, there is a good chance that many will snap and sell, effectively extending the believed to be behind us, bear market. This type of failure would produce a cascading sell-off back to the $339 area and possibly below before heading up in our next Bull market.

Thanks for the thoughtful and useful analysis! So if I'm reading this right, you're charts are predicting a bottom of about $627? Any thoughts on long term price and what happens when we start approaching $1100?

So far, we have a clear 5 wave decline off the top. This makes for an easy, relatively predictable series of events to come. A 5 wave move from a price extreme nearly guarantees that there is at least one more move down still to come. But not before a small countering move to retrace part of that 5 waver.

Fibonacci is a great tool. It is found everywhere, including financial markets.
The retracement tool gives you an idea as to where to expect a pullback to after a move occurs. Since we have our 5 wave "a" off the top, we can get our target for the b-wave. Since a b-wave usually retraces by 50-61.8% of the a-wave (it can retrace further or shorter but those are the most likely points), we now have a good idea where the b will end. In cases like the $1163 top, the b-wave is a good chance to exit your position if you were caught long when you realized the price had tumbled. In smaller moves, it's best to just hold tight and wait out the whole correction.



We can go further into projecting a target for the c-wave and the completion of the correction, but it gets less accurate the more waves you try to estimate. For the purpose risk:reward ratio calculation, it sometimes is a good idea to do this just to get a ballpark idea of where you could buy back. The c-wave is measured from the end of the b-wave.

Using a retrace of 50% as our b-wave target, we get this


The c-wave target is a good place to buy back or buy more if there is still room to go up. If you are looking for your entry point this is it!

Another way to find this target is by checking the Fibo retracement of the impulse preceeding the correction.



As you can see, it falls in around the same price point.

Don't worry! I will not be doing this much typing in every single post, I just wanted to explain what I'm doing and how I arrived at these targets.