Topic: SlipperySlope's Bubble Collapse Journal - page 3. (Read 24785 times)
Awesome thread! Kudos SlipperySlope, you've called this pretty well
91 days after the April 10 peak
Clearly this bubble collapse is becoming more similar to the 2011 collapse than was the case a month ago.
Speculative financial bubble theory says that a collapse takes about the same time as the speculative inflation. Initially, I believed that this bubble started in January, but another interpretation of the price chart allows for the bubble to start last October - a six month inflation. A six month collapse would end in the September - October timeframe. I drew the long term support trendline in green, and added the support line of the June 2011 peak, and drew a black trendline extrapolating the current decline.
Evidence and experience drawn from the comparison of this bubble with 2011, and bubble theory makes me believe that the bottom will occur in September or October. The price then should be above $32 and below $50. The lines intersect at approximately $40.
Assumptions include the continuation of the two year long term support rate of growth. If the bitcoin economy rate of exponential growth has decreased, the the collapse could well undershoot the target. The previous peak of $32 should provide support according to Elliot Wave Theory. Bubble theory, on the other hand, allows for prices to collapse back to pre-bubble levels, e.g. $10.
Clearly this bubble collapse is becoming more similar to the 2011 collapse than was the case a month ago.
Speculative financial bubble theory says that a collapse takes about the same time as the speculative inflation. Initially, I believed that this bubble started in January, but another interpretation of the price chart allows for the bubble to start last October - a six month inflation. A six month collapse would end in the September - October timeframe. I drew the long term support trendline in green, and added the support line of the June 2011 peak, and drew a black trendline extrapolating the current decline.
Evidence and experience drawn from the comparison of this bubble with 2011, and bubble theory makes me believe that the bottom will occur in September or October. The price then should be above $32 and below $50. The lines intersect at approximately $40.
Assumptions include the continuation of the two year long term support rate of growth. If the bitcoin economy rate of exponential growth has decreased, the the collapse could well undershoot the target. The previous peak of $32 should provide support according to Elliot Wave Theory. Bubble theory, on the other hand, allows for prices to collapse back to pre-bubble levels, e.g. $10.
Thank you for your effort to update this one. Pity I was too busy with my own during the time, yours would have provided insight.
Hahaha he's back!
Back, from doing Something. As opposed to you, who is always here...
Basket weaving? Ever been to a mental institution?
Something, capitalized.
Thank you for your effort to update this one. Pity I was too busy with my own during the time, yours would have provided insight.
Hahaha he's back!
Back, from doing Something. As opposed to you, who is always here...
Thank you for your effort to update this one. Pity I was too busy with my own during the time, yours would have provided insight.
Hahaha he's back!
Thank you for your effort to update this one. Pity I was too busy with my own during the time, yours would have provided insight.
Thanks for this very informative thread. As someone who is still learning basics of how markets work this has been very helpful.
You are welcome. I try hard to separate evidence from my opinion of it.
I just caught up on this thread between yesterday and today and it was a great read. Really enjoyed it. Thanks for the work and please keep it coming!
~richgene
Thanks for this very informative thread. As someone who is still learning basics of how markets work this has been very helpful.
You are welcome. I try hard to separate evidence from my opinion of it.
Quote
It has happened! The rapture has occurred before our very eyes!
SlipperySlope has turned bull (or at least non-bear)....
That can only mean one thing: Time to sell all the bitcoins!
SlipperySlope has turned bull (or at least non-bear)....
That can only mean one thing: Time to sell all the bitcoins!
Indeed. Although I bought back in at $131, I have 20% still in fiat in case the bubble collapses further.
An important test will be at $104. The bear case becomes stronger should that be broken through on the downside.
I think we will go through $104 like a hot knife through butter. Next real support is $80ish. If that's broken too tye the real test will be $50.
I don't think we will go below that. And in my book a bubble that bottoms at 1/5 from the top is quite good, it would be healthy signal for BTC.
If $50 is broken, I would expect despair, gloom and doom as per 2011, where we bottomed at $2 (that's 1/16 from the top).
To put things in context, a 2011 scenario translated to 2013 would mean to reach a bottom of $16ish. That would be a textbook bubble burst, but as I said earlier I doubt we will ever see again that kind of prices.
I agree with most of what you write, but you, as many others on this forum are just so damn... impatient.
No, I don't believe we will approach 80 during this down trend. It rarely happens that such huge drops happen anyway, and the momentum to go there in one round just isn't there.
I think testing 80 again is a real chance. But not today, or tomorrow.
I agree with you. It won't happen fast. There will be no huge sell outs like we had after April 10th, where we had two almost consecutive days in which 500k coins were traded.
This is one of the reasons I don't believe we will go below $50. During 2011 bubble burst, we didn't see huge, ATH volume sellouts during the decline. The huge sell out happened at the bottom. The volume we had recently around $50 was higher than ever, and we had that kind of huge ATH volume two days, not only one.
Thus, IMO panickers already did their job finding out the very bottom. Now we will slowly adjust to a lower level before the next growth period. And in order to break $266, we will need a significant improvement on infrastructure.
I speculate that by the time we break $266 (which won't happen this year IMO), MtGox will have less than 25% of market share, probably less.
Thanks for this very informative thread. As someone who is still learning basics of how markets work this has been very helpful.
Quote
It has happened! The rapture has occurred before our very eyes!
SlipperySlope has turned bull (or at least non-bear)....
That can only mean one thing: Time to sell all the bitcoins!
SlipperySlope has turned bull (or at least non-bear)....
That can only mean one thing: Time to sell all the bitcoins!
Indeed. Although I bought back in at $131, I have 20% still in fiat in case the bubble collapses further.
An important test will be at $104. The bear case becomes stronger should that be broken through on the downside.
I think we will go through $104 like a hot knife through butter. Next real support is $80ish. If that's broken too tye the real test will be $50.
I don't think we will go below that. And in my book a bubble that bottoms at 1/5 from the top is quite good, it would be healthy signal for BTC.
If $50 is broken, I would expect despair, gloom and doom as per 2011, where we bottomed at $2 (that's 1/16 from the top).
To put things in context, a 2011 scenario translated to 2013 would mean to reach a bottom of $16ish. That would be a textbook bubble burst, but as I said earlier I doubt we will ever see again that kind of prices.
I agree with most of what you write, but you, as many others on this forum are just so damn... impatient.
No, I don't believe we will approach 80 during this down trend. It rarely happens that such huge drops happen anyway, and the momentum to go there in one round just isn't there.
I think testing 80 again is a real chance. But not today, or tomorrow.
Quote
It has happened! The rapture has occurred before our very eyes!
SlipperySlope has turned bull (or at least non-bear)....
That can only mean one thing: Time to sell all the bitcoins!
SlipperySlope has turned bull (or at least non-bear)....
That can only mean one thing: Time to sell all the bitcoins!
Indeed. Although I bought back in at $131, I have 20% still in fiat in case the bubble collapses further.
An important test will be at $104. The bear case becomes stronger should that be broken through on the downside.
I think we will go through $104 like a hot knife through butter. Next real support is $80ish. If that's broken too tye the real test will be $50.
I don't think we will go below that. And in my book a bubble that bottoms at 1/5 from the top is quite good, it would be healthy signal for BTC.
If $50 is broken, I would expect despair, gloom and doom as per 2011, where we bottomed at $2 (that's 1/16 from the top).
To put things in context, a 2011 scenario translated to 2013 would mean to reach a bottom of $16ish. That would be a textbook bubble burst, but as I said earlier I doubt we will ever see again that kind of prices.
Quote
It has happened! The rapture has occurred before our very eyes!
SlipperySlope has turned bull (or at least non-bear)....
That can only mean one thing: Time to sell all the bitcoins!
SlipperySlope has turned bull (or at least non-bear)....
That can only mean one thing: Time to sell all the bitcoins!
Indeed. Although I bought back in at $131, I have 20% still in fiat in case the bubble collapses further.
An important test will be at $104. The bear case becomes stronger should that be broken through on the downside.
It has happened! The rapture has occurred before our very eyes!
SlipperySlope has turned bull (or at least non-bear)....
That can only mean one thing: Time to sell all the bitcoins!
I'm kidding, of course. As always, I appreciate your updates. Funny enough, right now I'm more sceptical than ever that we've reached the end of the slide. The low volume looks to me like biding time, as if the market is waiting for a signal that the fundamentals of bitcoin went from "promising" to "actually relevant"... and I think it'll take another year or two before that will be the case.
That said, I don't expect we'll reach a new absolute post-crash low (like lucif does, for example). The very worst I can see is approaching 50 again, and more realistically, that we'll test 100 a few more times in the coming month(s).
/gut feeling
SlipperySlope has turned bull (or at least non-bear)....
That can only mean one thing: Time to sell all the bitcoins!
I'm kidding, of course. As always, I appreciate your updates. Funny enough, right now I'm more sceptical than ever that we've reached the end of the slide. The low volume looks to me like biding time, as if the market is waiting for a signal that the fundamentals of bitcoin went from "promising" to "actually relevant"... and I think it'll take another year or two before that will be the case.
That said, I don't expect we'll reach a new absolute post-crash low (like lucif does, for example). The very worst I can see is approaching 50 again, and more realistically, that we'll test 100 a few more times in the coming month(s).
/gut feeling
Sure, we could go below $100 as the long term support is much lower than the current price. My original analysis was that the price would decline to meet the long term support at $40-50 six months after the April 10 peak.
57 days after the April 10 peak
The bubble collapse pattern now looks less like the June 2011 collapse and more like a damped oscillation consolidation centering on $120.
In the illustrated chart, I circled the mild August 2012 bubble-correction. Note that prices did not crash back to levels of June-July, but rather proceeded sideways and upwards.
I now believe that bitcoin prices could progress sideways for much of the rest of the year until the long term support line approaches. Observe that the long term trendline I drew suggests that bitcoin prices are generally increasing 10x every 14 months. Accordingly, I expect sharp pullbacks towards the support and slower recoveries upwards as is typical of a long term rally.
Do you believe we could go below 100$ again in the medium term? The bubble collapse pattern now looks less like the June 2011 collapse and more like a damped oscillation consolidation centering on $120.
In the illustrated chart, I circled the mild August 2012 bubble-correction. Note that prices did not crash back to levels of June-July, but rather proceeded sideways and upwards.
I now believe that bitcoin prices could progress sideways for much of the rest of the year until the long term support line approaches. Observe that the long term trendline I drew suggests that bitcoin prices are generally increasing 10x every 14 months. Accordingly, I expect sharp pullbacks towards the support and slower recoveries upwards as is typical of a long term rally.
57 days after the April 10 peak
Nearly two months after the peak at $266, it is increasingly evident that this bubble may have completed its collapse. Price action for May was bullish/neutral - not bearish - even in the face of bad news events. The May low of $80 has not been surpassed on the downside, and the early May high at $125 was surpassed later in the month. The post-peak highs of $166 on April 23 and $149 on April 28 still stand.
The bubble collapse pattern now looks less like the June 2011 collapse and more like a damped oscillation consolidation centering on $120.
In the illustrated chart, I circled the mild August 2012 bubble-correction. Note that prices did not crash back to levels of June-July, but rather proceeded sideways and upwards.
I now believe that bitcoin prices could progress sideways for much of the rest of the year until the long term support line approaches. Observe that the long term trendline I drew suggests that bitcoin prices are generally increasing 10x every 14 months. Accordingly, I expect sharp pullbacks towards the support and slower recoveries upwards as is typical of a long term rally.
Nearly two months after the peak at $266, it is increasingly evident that this bubble may have completed its collapse. Price action for May was bullish/neutral - not bearish - even in the face of bad news events. The May low of $80 has not been surpassed on the downside, and the early May high at $125 was surpassed later in the month. The post-peak highs of $166 on April 23 and $149 on April 28 still stand.
The bubble collapse pattern now looks less like the June 2011 collapse and more like a damped oscillation consolidation centering on $120.
In the illustrated chart, I circled the mild August 2012 bubble-correction. Note that prices did not crash back to levels of June-July, but rather proceeded sideways and upwards.
I now believe that bitcoin prices could progress sideways for much of the rest of the year until the long term support line approaches. Observe that the long term trendline I drew suggests that bitcoin prices are generally increasing 10x every 14 months. Accordingly, I expect sharp pullbacks towards the support and slower recoveries upwards as is typical of a long term rally.
SlipperySlope, how many chances in 10 do you give it that prices will hit $50 or lower for some weeks, the coming half year?
What's lower then zero?
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
SlipperySlope, how many chances in 10 do you give it that prices will hit $50 or lower for some weeks, the coming half year?
There was a major post-peak support trendline breakout to the downside on news of Dwolla/Mt.Gox account seisure by DHS. Note the relatively high, bid-wall-busting volume in the last 12 hours.
To some extent the support trendline represents the trading belief that the bubble can be re-inflated. With the breakthough to the downside, that trading belief will be weakened, and belief that the bubble may have more collapsing yet ahead will, in contrast, be strengthened.
To some extent the support trendline represents the trading belief that the bubble can be re-inflated. With the breakthough to the downside, that trading belief will be weakened, and belief that the bubble may have more collapsing yet ahead will, in contrast, be strengthened.
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