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Topic: 🏁🏎️ Sportsbet.io🏁 FORMULA 1 2023 Season🏁🏎️Prediction Pool Discussion Thread - page 78. (Read 22020 times)

legendary
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Fuck i go out later from work and i miss the practice and also the qualy, the worst part, i dont put any picks, because i wanted to see the practice and after that select my picks with that information, but was too risky, i forgot to leave at least any picks before.

As far as i can see another pole for Max.

Wait what happened to the grid penalty and all that?

Can't check the news just yet, commenting here on the fly and on the road but some comments above say he  starts in 6th anyway, as mentioned earlier from the gearbox change.

I like MvLaren double finish above 6 odds too, for funny money.

No matter where he starts is completely irrelevant in this track for Max as he still drives the best car on the grid which can make him win under the conditions of this weekend even if he starts last and in fact it would be very nice to see him starting far away under such conditions but that remains an utopia for now as I am sure in the Sprint of today he will end first.

For the McLaren double I won that bet last week at 2.20 odd and I was not at all expecting it so I placed little money,shame on me,this time though in a long track like this one they will have true chances of repeating that success again.
legendary
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I wonder if we will watch Ferrari messing it up again after seeing especially Leclerc's great qualifying effort.
Ferrari always finds a way to mess up, especially in changing conditions.
My personal expectation is on a bad strategy call due to changing conditions (rain / dry track), where at least 1 car is affected.  Cheesy

Bad strategy is essential for Ferrari crew.  Grin  They are even more prone to making bad decisions under such weather conditions. If this happens I think the type of bad decision will be tyre strategies. Maybe they would call one of their drivers to pit early or late to change tyres which would cost him big time. Or maybe it would be another long pit just as they did in Hungary.

McLaren could have done better than this as well. Because Piastri and Norris seemed really good until Q3. But they couldn't have a good lap on their last attempt because of being slower in the first sectors if I'm not mistaken.
legendary
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Fuck i go out later from work and i miss the practice and also the qualy, the worst part, i dont put any picks, because i wanted to see the practice and after that select my picks with that information, but was too risky, i forgot to leave at least any picks before.

As far as i can see another pole for Max.

Wait what happened to the grid penalty and all that?

Can't check the news just yet, commenting here on the fly and on the road but some comments above say he  starts in 6th anyway, as mentioned earlier from the gearbox change.

I like MvLaren double finish above 6 odds too, for funny money.
legendary
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For Sunday's race, McLaren both cars top 6 finish @2.00 odds can be interesting, but in wet conditions, McLaren can also have some unlucky events and lose positions.

I think it is very risky to bet on the performance of both cars to be at the wanted level because of rain.
You are right, a rainy race is always very risky to have an unexpected outcome.

But especially McLaren has been doing well in rain, like in Monaco, where Norris and Piastri managed to pass Tsunoda on track and we know how difficult it is to overtake in Monaco.
In addition, McLaren has chosen a big rear-wing for this weekend.
Big rear-wing means a fast car in rainy conditions and McLaren showed a great performance when the track was wet (Q1 and Q2).

Probably odds of 2.00 for both cars top 6 are not enough to be a good value bet but I wouldn't be surprised to see McLaren doing well, both in rainy and dry conditions.

In fact it would be much better if there is a bet to be opened like who wins the race except Verstappen.
Such a bet would be interesting or in these conditions, a bet on a red flag as well.  Cheesy



I wonder if we will watch Ferrari messing it up again after seeing especially Leclerc's great qualifying effort.
Ferrari always finds a way to mess up, especially in changing conditions.
My personal expectation is on a bad strategy call due to changing conditions (rain / dry track), where at least 1 car is affected.  Cheesy
legendary
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Verstappen did a good work despite the five-place grid penalty. However I don't think it was worth exaggerating as I saw from some sources. Because the track was just drying up after rain so the lap times were getting much better in every lap for every driver. If some other drivers in Q3 had one more chance I believe at least one of them could have done better than Verstappen's lap time. This result is the best one Verstappen could have. Now he will be starting in 6th place which is very close to the lead for him.  Grin

Depending on track conditions the race might still be quite interesting. But it is still very challenging to deal with Verstappen's dominance. I wonder if we will watch Ferrari messing it up again after seeing especially Leclerc's great qualifying effort.
sr. member
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For Sunday's race, McLaren both cars top 6 finish @2.00 odds can be interesting, but in wet conditions, McLaren can also have some unlucky events and lose positions.

I think it is very risky to bet on the performance of both cars to be at the wanted level because of rain. We shouldn't overlook especially Ferrari's good performance in the qualifying as well.

In fact it would be much better if there is a bet to be opened like who wins the race except Verstappen.
legendary
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Verstappen was close to being dropped in Q2, where he only made position 10, so very lucky for him in the end.  Cheesy



Anyway, does anybody have some good value bets for the next race?  I'm all ears...  All I see is Stroll points finish at 1.95 and Alonso top 6 finish at 1.91.
Expecting 2 wet sessions today, where lap times are changing all the time and especially for Belgium, where one lap takes 1:45 + 2:00 minutes per lap depending on conditions, I've done 2 bets yesterday, one for FP1 and one for qualification:



Bets are not settled yet but gaps were 0.5 seconds for FP1 and 0.8 seconds for qualification.

Markets for tomorrow's sprint qualifying are not up yet but all odds above 2.20 would be a pretty good value bet in my opinion.
Tomorrow seems to be wet as well but how fast Verstappen is here we might also have a likely a big gap in normal conditions.



For Sunday's race, McLaren both cars top 6 finish @2.00 odds can be interesting, but in wet conditions, McLaren can also have some unlucky events and lose positions.

legendary
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Max was near 1 second faster than the second guy Leclerc and I doubt that in the Sprint race of tomorrow to have any surprises,unfortunately it is true,the new upgrades from Redbull could not show their performance in a slow and short track like that in Hungary but in here they made and extreme difference and I doubt anything or anyone to change that,I see Max winning this race too and the only thing stopping him will not be the rain,nor the Safety Car but only a crash or a mechanical failure,in all other cases it will be a boring race dominated by Redbull.

Yeah the RBR is just insane.
When the FIA decided to open the DRS, the strength point of RBR they started to play another game.

Tomorrow we will have new qualify for the sprint race, the only way to stop MAX is with casualty with rain.
legendary
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Yeah, don't forget to make picks, there is less than 30 minutes remaining.
~snip

it is a first time for me, but skipped that EarlyBRU points, so much to do today, and forgot that today is deadline for qualifications due to sprint
didn't get any reminder from Superbru either, not sure is that always the case, usually I have picks on time, so no reminder, only that 72 hours before

according to results, Max is having a podium, will that be changed eventually, since I don't see that in any results?

Max was near 1 second faster than the second guy Leclerc and I doubt that in the Sprint race of tomorrow to have any surprises,unfortunately it is true,the new upgrades from Redbull could not show their performance in a slow and short track like that in Hungary but in here they made and extreme difference and I doubt anything or anyone to change that,I see Max winning this race too and the only thing stopping him will not be the rain,nor the Safety Car but only a crash or a mechanical failure,in all other cases it will be a boring race dominated by Redbull.
legendary
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Yeah, don't forget to make picks, there is less than 30 minutes remaining.
~snip

it is a first time for me, but skipped that EarlyBRU points, so much to do today, and forgot that today is deadline for qualifications due to sprint
didn't get any reminder from Superbru either, not sure is that always the case, usually I have picks on time, so no reminder, only that 72 hours before

according to results, Max is having a podium, will that be changed eventually, since I don't see that in any results?
legendary
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Fuck i go out later from work and i miss the practice and also the qualy, the worst part, i dont put any picks, because i wanted to see the practice and after that select my picks with that information, but was too risky, i forgot to leave at least any picks before.

As far as i can see another pole for Max.
legendary
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Yeah, don't forget to make picks, there is less than 30 minutes remaining. When we such heavy rain, predicting qualification winner becomes very difficult, but still, better to do it if you don't want to miss getting EBP.
EDIT After my post weather changed fast, rain is over, we have sun and track is drying fast.
legendary
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Make sure you guys put your picks before today 17 PM Europe time as there is a new format,it is a Sprint race tomorrow so anyone not putting his picks before 17 PM Europe time today loses the EBP points which are not little,it is 2 points for just putting your picks early.I just saw this myself now as I had completely forgotten that this is a sprint race so sharing here to not create handicaps for people who are not informed about this and in a Friday we can easily lose our mind as we prepare for the weekend,so go ahead and put your picks in.
legendary
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^

Currently markets have been unavailable for me all day on SB, ca't be bothered to check other books, was also hoping to see some good value with price boost, but I guess we'll just have to wait.

2/1 pre-boost is good value for me though, not 16/10.

P.S. What's he been doing with his gearboxes? Ha!

Tsunoda for me its a bad driver i said it countless times, i want to see how Ricciardo can do with this car, in the first race he made a very decent paper.

Even though he had my support all of last season, I've to concede this. Never entering my top 10 this season again, still wondering if Ricciardo glimpses is enough to make me reconsider AT though.
legendary
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-snip

Let's see how the books adjust their lines tho.  If it's anything like 1.60 or better for Verstappen to win, better bet it! We won't have good lines for race winner for a long looong time til 2026.

doubt that it will be above @1.45 on Max to win, no matter starting position, it was similar to that after Hamilton unexpectedly took pole in Hungary
and in Hungary, Lewis took it on the track, so one could think he has what is needed to fight with Max, but obviously nobody has this year

but, grid penalty would bring much more interesting race, and less advantage for Max in the end, it will probably under 10 seconds in front of second driver at end
and much more overturns in the race
sr. member
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Hi guys i just read some news today..

Max Verstappen to take five-place Belgian GP grid penalty after Red Bull driver exceeds gearbox allowance.

World Championship leader Max Verstappen will receive a five-place grid penalty for Sunday's Belgian Grand Prix after exceeding his gearbox allowance for the 2023 Formula 1 season.

While the FIA has yet to officially confirm the gearbox change and resulting penalty, Sky Sports News has learned Red Bull have taken the decision

The penalty will apply to Sunday's race, for which Qualifying is taking place on Friday as Spa-Francorchamps hosts the third Sprint weekend of the season.

It means Verstappen will line up no higher than sixth on the grid for the Grand Prix.

Each F1 car is limited to four gearboxes over the season, and Verstappen is the first driver to require a fifth assembly this year.

Does that mean that he has no opportunity to start in pole position even if he wins qualifying today?

I was also not sure when I saw the same news and I found a note like this when I checked out Superbru's rules:



I guess not preferring Verstappen for pole position is going to be the rightest choice.
legendary
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Does that mean that he has no opportunity to start in pole position even if he wins qualifying today?

^  If the 5 place grid penalty is confirmed then clearly he won't.  Lol.  But I don't think it will really change anything tho.  Red Bull has the fastest car on the grid and it'll prolly be racing for pole position by the 20th lap or so.  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy  Everything about the gear box move is already calculated.

Let's see how the books adjust their lines tho.  If it's anything like 1.60 or better for Verstappen to win, better bet it! We won't have good lines for race winner for a long looong time til 2026.
full member
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Hi guys i just read some news today..

Max Verstappen to take five-place Belgian GP grid penalty after Red Bull driver exceeds gearbox allowance.

World Championship leader Max Verstappen will receive a five-place grid penalty for Sunday's Belgian Grand Prix after exceeding his gearbox allowance for the 2023 Formula 1 season.

While the FIA has yet to officially confirm the gearbox change and resulting penalty, Sky Sports News has learned Red Bull have taken the decision

The penalty will apply to Sunday's race, for which Qualifying is taking place on Friday as Spa-Francorchamps hosts the third Sprint weekend of the season.

It means Verstappen will line up no higher than sixth on the grid for the Grand Prix.

Each F1 car is limited to four gearboxes over the season, and Verstappen is the first driver to require a fifth assembly this year.

Does that mean that he has no opportunity to start in pole position even if he wins qualifying today?
sr. member
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It is still seen as rain for the whole race weekend. Rain will absolutely make this track really dangerous. We have witnessed really sad incidents on this track due to bad weather conditions. I hope we don't see any serious crash this time. F1 cars are getting faster every year but safer at the same time thankfully. When it comes to who can win I don't doubt Verstappen at all. He had a huge domination last year in terms of taking the win, the pole position and the fastest lap all.  Smiley
legendary
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So for bets it will be difficult to predict anything right as this is over 7 km a lap which means is a very long track and in wet conditions nothing is true,so I would opt for a safety car yes and virtual safety car yes,the odds are not that good though.

First corner of Spa in the start of the race its always a high probability Safety Car. We can remember that mega crash a few years ago, with cars flying above other cars.

Rain its confirmed?, we are having a lot of wet conditions in the last races, not in the race itself, but yes in the whole weekend of the race.
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