🏁🏎️ Sportsbet.io🏁 FORMULA 1 2023 Season🏁🏎️Prediction Pool Discussion Thread - page 74.

Spack17

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Quote from: Slissy on July 28, 2023, 06:17:10 AM

Hi guys i just read some news today..

Max Verstappen to take five-place Belgian GP grid penalty after Red Bull driver exceeds gearbox allowance.

World Championship leader Max Verstappen will receive a five-place grid penalty for Sunday's Belgian Grand Prix after exceeding his gearbox allowance for the 2023 Formula 1 season.

While the FIA has yet to officially confirm the gearbox change and resulting penalty, Sky Sports News has learned Red Bull have taken the decision

The penalty will apply to Sunday's race, for which Qualifying is taking place on Friday as Spa-Francorchamps hosts the third Sprint weekend of the season.

It means Verstappen will line up no higher than sixth on the grid for the Grand Prix.

Each F1 car is limited to four gearboxes over the season, and Verstappen is the first driver to require a fifth assembly this year.

Does that mean that he has no opportunity to start in pole position even if he wins qualifying today?

I was also not sure when I saw the same news and I found a note like this when I checked out Superbru's rules:

I guess not preferring Verstappen for pole position is going to be the rightest choice.

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Quote from: Slissy on July 28, 2023, 06:17:10 AM

Does that mean that he has no opportunity to start in pole position even if he wins qualifying today?

^ If the 5 place grid penalty is confirmed then clearly he won't. Lol. But I don't think it will really change anything tho. Red Bull has the fastest car on the grid and it'll prolly be racing for pole position by the 20th lap or so. Cheesy

Everything about the gear box move is already calculated.

Let's see how the books adjust their lines tho. If it's anything like 1.60 or better for Verstappen to win, better bet it! We won't have good lines for race winner for a long looong time til 2026.

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Hi guys i just read some news today..

Max Verstappen to take five-place Belgian GP grid penalty after Red Bull driver exceeds gearbox allowance.

World Championship leader Max Verstappen will receive a five-place grid penalty for Sunday's Belgian Grand Prix after exceeding his gearbox allowance for the 2023 Formula 1 season.

While the FIA has yet to officially confirm the gearbox change and resulting penalty, Sky Sports News has learned Red Bull have taken the decision

The penalty will apply to Sunday's race, for which Qualifying is taking place on Friday as Spa-Francorchamps hosts the third Sprint weekend of the season.

It means Verstappen will line up no higher than sixth on the grid for the Grand Prix.

Each F1 car is limited to four gearboxes over the season, and Verstappen is the first driver to require a fifth assembly this year.

Does that mean that he has no opportunity to start in pole position even if he wins qualifying today?

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It is still seen as rain for the whole race weekend. Rain will absolutely make this track really dangerous. We have witnessed really sad incidents on this track due to bad weather conditions. I hope we don't see any serious crash this time. F1 cars are getting faster every year but safer at the same time thankfully. When it comes to who can win I don't doubt Verstappen at all. He had a huge domination last year in terms of taking the win, the pole position and the fastest lap all.

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Quote from: swogerino on July 27, 2023, 08:23:49 AM

So for bets it will be difficult to predict anything right as this is over 7 km a lap which means is a very long track and in wet conditions nothing is true,so I would opt for a safety car yes and virtual safety car yes,the odds are not that good though.

First corner of Spa in the start of the race its always a high probability Safety Car. We can remember that mega crash a few years ago, with cars flying above other cars.

Rain its confirmed?, we are having a lot of wet conditions in the last races, not in the race itself, but yes in the whole weekend of the race.

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Quote from: tokeweed on July 27, 2023, 07:49:35 AM

Quote from: darxiaomi on July 24, 2023, 01:58:46 PM

Spa, one of the most mighty circuits on the F1, i hope we can see another winner and not the same as always Max Verstappen.

One thing we need to notice, its a few weeks ago in Spa one young driver died again for a crash. I think he was for F3 or some minor categorie like that, really sad.

So i hope we can have a race with safety.

Yeah, Spa is one of the most dangerous tracks in F1 even though a lot of people think Imola is the most dangerous, there are people who say Spa is more dangerous than Imola. I think Imola only got its reputation as the 'most notorious' track because it's where Arton Senna crashed and died, RIP.

And imho, just from optics alone I think the most dangerous might be the street circuit at Azerbaijan. Lol.

Anyway, does anybody have some good value bets for the next race? I'm all ears... All I see is Stroll points finish at 1.95 and Alonso top 6 finish at 1.91.

I agree that Imola is much more dangerous than this track although I must admit some young drivers have died here as well if I am not mistaken so this too is a very dangerous track,however rarely we have seen fatal incidents here and with big dimensions like that of Imola where two drivers died the same weekend,first on qualifying on 1994 at Imola one German or Austrian driver which I don't remember the name now and the next day the legendary Ayrton Senna (for me the best driver of all times).

So for bets it will be difficult to predict anything right as this is over 7 km a lap which means is a very long track and in wet conditions nothing is true,so I would opt for a safety car yes and virtual safety car yes,the odds are not that good though.

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Quote from: darxiaomi on July 24, 2023, 01:58:46 PM

Spa, one of the most mighty circuits on the F1, i hope we can see another winner and not the same as always Max Verstappen.

One thing we need to notice, its a few weeks ago in Spa one young driver died again for a crash. I think he was for F3 or some minor categorie like that, really sad.

So i hope we can have a race with safety.

Yeah, Spa is one of the most dangerous tracks in F1 even though a lot of people think Imola is the most dangerous, there are people who say Spa is more dangerous than Imola. I think Imola only got its reputation as the 'most notorious' track because it's where Arton Senna crashed and died, RIP.

And imho, just from optics alone I think the most dangerous might be the street circuit at Azerbaijan. Lol.

Anyway, does anybody have some good value bets for the next race? I'm all ears... All I see is Stroll points finish at 1.95 and Alonso top 6 finish at 1.91.

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Quote from: 1miau on July 26, 2023, 04:48:11 PM

And @CLS63

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When it comes to Ricciardo and Tsunoda I think Ricciardo will have a more successful time period than his teammate in the rest of the season. There is a very visible gap between two drivers in terms of skills and experience. Ricciardo finished his first race at AlphaTauri ahead of Tsunoda already. He did it despite the crash at the beginning of the race.

I don't think Tsunoda can do better than Ricciardo as a result.

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Quote from: tokeweed on July 24, 2023, 07:41:46 AM

From a betting perspective, try looking in the points finish market. If any driver's odds from teams Red Bull, McLaren, Mercedes, Ferrari, Aston Martin is lined above 2.00 and has no grid penalty then it's an auto bet... At least for me.

Not sure if I'd bet on Stroll, he has been very inconsistent so far and especially because Aston Martin hasn't made any progress (McLaren, Ferrari, Mercedes and RedBull are faster), so I would skip him because it's already enough if one of Ocon, Gasly, Albon or even Ricciardo, if he's good, will finish in front of him and he'll be out of the points.
Alonso, yes, he's top 10 candidate but Stroll is very inconsistent.

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Quote from: boltz on July 26, 2023, 08:25:32 AM

Quote from: darxiaomi on July 26, 2023, 07:56:28 AM

Quote from: buwaytress on July 25, 2023, 11:51:53 PM

That's the main problem. Both these guys can snatch you valuable points if you just get their position right 8-10 (I used to stick with Tsunoda and then tried Ocon/Gasly but horrible results). Guess I don't lose by sticking with them a couple more times.

Anyways i think last race doesnt count for a serious analisys about alpine, they were really un lucky inthat start and ended up with the two cars out, and the crash was more fault of others like Zhou than from them.

Tsunoda for me its a bad driver i said it countless times, i want to see how Ricciardo can do with this car, in the first race he made a very decent paper.

I think Tsunoda has a fiery character that most of times won't suit F1 driving style but overall , he is a cool kid , great racing driver but he can get out of the zone in a second and that can compromise races and points for the team.

For me , Ricciardo is nowhere near what it used to be some years ago and he knows that so right now , I'm just happy to see him racing in F1 again.

I think the same we cannot expect anything more than this from Ricciardo,he is a very talented driver but unfortunately the maximum he has achieved in F1 is to just win some races,most other drivers have done the same so nothing to come out of the crowd I would say about him.He had his chances at Redbull and could not become a leader there,now of course he can drive much better than Tsunoda because Ricciardo has been driving with us since Indianapolis 2011 where he debuted so nothing to compare here,Tsunoda was a mediocre driver,had his time in F1 and could not make good things out of it.

From the rookies for me Piastri makes a great driver and he was even defending people who did not let him space to fight in Hungary,so a very nice guy in this context too,I am sure with time he can go a long way.

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Quote from: darxiaomi on July 26, 2023, 07:56:28 AM

Quote from: buwaytress on July 25, 2023, 11:51:53 PM

That's the main problem. Both these guys can snatch you valuable points if you just get their position right 8-10 (I used to stick with Tsunoda and then tried Ocon/Gasly but horrible results). Guess I don't lose by sticking with them a couple more times.

Anyways i think last race doesnt count for a serious analisys about alpine, they were really un lucky inthat start and ended up with the two cars out, and the crash was more fault of others like Zhou than from them.

Tsunoda for me its a bad driver i said it countless times, i want to see how Ricciardo can do with this car, in the first race he made a very decent paper.

I think Tsunoda has a fiery character that most of times won't suit F1 driving style but overall , he is a cool kid , great racing driver but he can get out of the zone in a second and that can compromise races and points for the team.

For me , Ricciardo is nowhere near what it used to be some years ago and he knows that so right now , I'm just happy to see him racing in F1 again.

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Quote from: buwaytress on July 25, 2023, 11:51:53 PM

That's the main problem. Both these guys can snatch you valuable points if you just get their position right 8-10 (I used to stick with Tsunoda and then tried Ocon/Gasly but horrible results). Guess I don't lose by sticking with them a couple more times.

Anyways i think last race doesnt count for a serious analisys about alpine, they were really un lucky inthat start and ended up with the two cars out, and the crash was more fault of others like Zhou than from them.

Tsunoda for me its a bad driver i said it countless times, i want to see how Ricciardo can do with this car, in the first race he made a very decent paper.

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Quote from: casperBGD on July 25, 2023, 04:52:51 AM

basically, Superbru is favoring picking favorites in all sports, not just F1, because of point system
it is not easy to pick a surprise and reward for that is really low

Yup! Lesson that keeps repeating itself for me in pools -- can't help myself in EPL to go for gut upsets, and if I win, it's rare, and only gets me 3 points. Still remember picking 4-0 for Liverpool vs United and only getting 0.5 points more than majority who went 2-1. Absolutely no risk reward motivation, and hence, safe picks on F1.

Quote from: darxiaomi on July 25, 2023, 02:21:00 PM

Quote from: buwaytress on July 24, 2023, 10:19:20 PM

Time to cut off Ocon and Gasly?

I will say yes with closed eyes, but with Alpine you never know, they have this kind of low parts in all the seasons, but always they find a way in a race to recover and start fighting for points. They always lives in this double state.

That's the main problem. Both these guys can snatch you valuable points if you just get their position right 8-10 (I used to stick with Tsunoda and then tried Ocon/Gasly but horrible results). Guess I don't lose by sticking with them a couple more times.

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Quote from: buwaytress on July 24, 2023, 10:19:20 PM

Trofo I have the same tactic but that is my Superbru criticism from the very beginning. Pointless not to choose the strong favourite, as an upset of 100/1 or of 3/1 gives the same points. I have no strategy other than to guess who enters top 10 as those finishers gives points. Time to cut off Ocon and Gasly?

I will say yes with closed eyes, but with Alpine you never know, they have this kind of low parts in all the seasons, but always they find a way in a race to recover and start fighting for points. They always lives in this double state.

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Quote from: buwaytress on July 24, 2023, 10:19:20 PM

-snip

Trofo I have the same tactic but that is my Superbru criticism from the very beginning. Pointless not to choose the strong favourite, as an upset of 100/1 or of 3/1 gives the same points. I have no strategy other than to guess who enters top 10 as those finishers gives points. Time to cut off Ocon and Gasly?

basically, Superbru is favoring picking favorites in all sports, not just F1, because of point system
it is not easy to pick a surprise and reward for that is really low

and of course all pick Verstappen for win, pole, fastest lap, because it is usually correct answer (although lap and pole have gone to others from time to time, but guessing who is usually hard)

who would said that Hamilton will win pole in Hungary and after that finished fourth, lousy performance in the end

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Quote from: buwaytress on July 24, 2023, 10:19:20 PM

Time to cut off Ocon and Gasly?

I would say absolutely now that they failed both cars from mechanical problems in this last race that we had on Hungary,as far as I remember they just made a few laps before retiring,well one was hit and the other I don't know what mechanical problem had.The fact is that even if they continued the race it will be difficult for them to be in top 10 now that McLaren has upgraded their cars and are always on the podium,they had a chance before but now they don't stand a single chance as top 10 places most likely will be taken by the top 5 teams now.

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Can't catch a break, really. Just as I thought I was doing alright several races in a row, I finished sooo many points off yellow cap, and have slipped down a rank in the process. What's that they say about one step forwards and two steps back?

Anyway, have to say good job to that amazing yellow cap.

Trofo I have the same tactic but that is my Superbru criticism from the very beginning. Pointless not to choose the strong favourite, as an upset of 100/1 or of 3/1 gives the same points. I have no strategy other than to guess who enters top 10 as those finishers gives points. Time to cut off Ocon and Gasly?

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Quote from: Trofo on July 24, 2023, 02:38:47 AM

I know I don't follow F1 and I did not expect much from this pool but I feel like there is almost no point in playing this. I mean everybody is picking Verstappen always which is boring but you must do it and then hoping you get exact placement for one of the other guys. I did not watch a single race or read a single article and still I am in the middle of the pool. Basically all I know is that Verstappen is winning every race and then I pick other guys just by their points that are written in Superbru.

Is there something more to this for those of you that understand the sport?

Well, yeah, this season is about picking Verstappen to win and then trying to predict how rest of grid will finnish. And it's not that easy - last race I didn't managed to get any exact predictions of position, except Vertappen. Qualification can bring upsets like we saw this weekend.

Quote from: swogerino on July 24, 2023, 03:08:07 PM

Quote from: darxiaomi on July 24, 2023, 01:58:46 PM

Spa, one of the most mighty circuits on the F1, i hope we can see another winner and not the same as always Max Verstappen.

One thing we need to notice, its a few weeks ago in Spa one young driver died again for a crash. I think he was for F3 or some minor categorie like that, really sad.

So i hope we can have a race with safety.

F1 safety with the halo system has improved greatly,just a couple of years ago a bad crash of Hamilton vs Verstappen and the halo saved Hamilton life as Verstappen car was stopped by that halo otherwise it would have been catastrophic as a bare minimum Hamilton would have had huge problems with his neck if saved from the tragedy.I think the halo system should be implemented in many other categories and lower categories drivers should not over do it trying to squeeze more than the car can deliver otherwise tragedies will happen.I am sure we will not see any problem with the F1 race this upcoming weekend.

It was F4 Regional championship. Not just F1, but all open wheel racing series in Europe have Halo, but it can protect from crash like that one. It was something similar like Anthoine Hubert fatal crash - car went of track after Eau Rouge and then from barriers jumped back to track. For drivers behind it's almost impossible to react, as there is no visibility, especially in rain. And impact of such crash is such big that we had already 2 fatal accidents in recent years. And in F1 such crashes is possible too, Halo wouldn't protect there.

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Quote from: Trofo on July 24, 2023, 02:38:47 AM

I know I don't follow F1 and I did not expect much from this pool but I feel like there is almost no point in playing this. I mean everybody is picking Verstappen always which is boring but you must do it and then hoping you get exact placement for one of the other guys. I did not watch a single race or read a single article and still I am in the middle of the pool. Basically all I know is that Verstappen is winning every race and then I pick other guys just by their points that are written in Superbru.

Is there something more to this for those of you that understand the sport?

Well! At least you have brought a topic to the table, let's say that your post was about 0.003 seconds with which Hamilton won the PP.

That happened to an implementation of new rules to get some emotion for those who are not fans, which is what a pool is about, I am not an expert in Formula 1 but I have followed it since Marlboro put ads.

Let's say that... I've been told the same thing about La Liga for 20 years, " forever" Real Madrid or Barcelona,

On the other hand, if the topic itself bores you, selecting them, Ver,Ver,Ver; Well, he plays with the idea of proposing to hit all the 1.5s, the bonus podium and the EBP.

In fact, I'm not first because I've played it several times and I've lost the 2-point bonus, but I wanted it that way.

On the other hand, it's not uncommon, this situation has always been every so often... but a fan supports it. Cool

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Quote from: püsür on July 24, 2023, 05:06:26 AM

Quote from: CLS63 on July 24, 2023, 03:33:45 AM

Red Bull have the fastest car on the grid by far now. As Verstappen is one of the most skilled drivers too this combination brings about a huge domination in this sport. It was the same for Hamilton when we were in the turbo hybrid era. Now Red Bull have captured the domination from Mercedes. This is a domination sport I'm afraid so there will always be someone who wins nearly all the time unless the cars are equal.

Right now there is only a competition among the other drivers. As for the pool it is simple to predict the winner and pole position most of the time. But the more difficult part is generally to predict the whole drivers in top 10 and their placements at the same time.

We are watching a domination in teams like the 2016 Mercedes season. Mercedes drivers won all races except malaysia and spain (rosberg and hamilton clashed in spain and by a twist of fate verstappen had won that race). A domination in the pilots like Schumi's 2004 season and Vettel's 2013 season. (Schumi won 13 races in the 2004 season, again, Vettel won the last 9 races of the 2013 season in a row, as well as won 13 races that season.) Hamilton dominated between 2014-2020 (except the year Rosberg became champion), but Bottas and Vettel were a little close to him until a certain point in the season. If we come to this year, we are witnessing a heavy domination. As for the race, Verstappen is just at 1, we can say that the rest competed among themselves. I'm not sure I can enjoy this much of a domination, it is literally too much.

Sometimes we get lucky about not seeing a heavy domination by only one driver. The 2021 season was just like that. Hamilton was still very fast with his Mercedes but he wasn't able to dominate as always. Red Bull started to close the gap with Mercedes very much. Verstappen took advantage of it and we watched an amazing competition in that season. We even watched these two drivers entering the last race week at equal points. Grin

This is just the kind of a competition I'm hoping to see in this sport.

But in this new era only Red Bull are very fast. McLaren have made big progress but they are still far away from Red Bull. Mercedes aren't much different either.

Topic: 🏁🏎️ Sportsbet.io🏁 FORMULA 1 2023 Season🏁🏎️Prediction Pool Discussion Thread - page 74. (Read 20737 times)