Tennis League All Thread - page 242.

Trofo

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Quote from: noormcs5 on July 06, 2022, 10:23:22 AM

The odds were good for him and he is ahead in the match at the moment.
Nadal looks in all sorts of trouble as he lost the first set and the second set is even at the moment. Also, he is unfit and I feel he might lose today in the quarterfinals. Nadal has taken the medical time out Sad

Nadal has some problems with abdominal wall, very uncomfortable since it limits all your moves but not so dangerous. I expect him to continue until the end rather than forfeit. He is not the one to throw the towel if he can stand on the pitch. I can also see Fritz getting more and more nervous as it goes on since he knows his opponent has problems and still he can't dispatch him.

But I agree, better to not bet on his one, anything can happen but if I had to place my bet it can only be on Nadal.

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Wow, after three sets, Taylor leads and the bookmakers quotes are as follows:

1.30 Fritz, Taylor

3.75 Nadal, Rafael

To be honest, I really want to bet on both outcomes - Taylor looks like a favorite, but 3.75 on Nadal ... lol! So I'll hold off for now. I don't know who will win this game, but maybe it's worth betting on Taylor if Nadal wins the fourth set?

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Quote from: cryptofrka on July 06, 2022, 02:54:10 AM

Today's Nadal - Fritz match might prove to be more exciting than expected, Fritz has been great so far. I planned to bet on him winning - but the odds aren't that attractive.

Did you bet on Fritz before the start of today's match ?

The odds were good for him and he is ahead in the match at the moment.
Nadal looks in all sorts of trouble as he lost the first set and the second set is even at the moment. Also, he is unfit and I feel he might lose today in the quarterfinals. Nadal has taken the medical time out Sad

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Garin seems to have reached his limit. He got unexpected wins at Wimbledon and only with a very good performance he will be able to win today against Kyrgios. The disadvantage about Kyrgios is, as always, his temperament. The other disadvantage could be his shoulder problem. In the match against Nakashima a physiotherapist had to massage his shoulder and afterwards he won the fifth set clearly.

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Quote from: Trofo on July 06, 2022, 07:11:45 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on July 06, 2022, 06:38:58 AM

Nadal quotes for today's match continue to fall. Initially, it was about 1.2 yesterday it was 1.3, and now you can bet on him with odds of 1.4. Does anyone know what's going on?

You mean continue to grow? I belive this is a perfect case when bookies get carried away and put one player as overwhelming favorite which is not the case in reality. Fritz is the only player in Wimbledon this season that still has not lost a single set. He also won against Nadal on hard earlier this year and grass should suit him even more.

Us gamblers realized the value on Fritz bet and obviously placed enough money on it so bookies had to readjust the odds.

The odds offered by the bookmakers are inversely proportional to the probability of the player winning. If we are talking about odds as a coefficient, then they are growing, and if we are talking about chances as a probability of winning, then they are falling.
1.2 -> 1.3 -> 1.4 odds/coefficient are growing
80% - > 73% -> 68% the probability of winning, the quotes are falling.

Thanks for the explanation, I don't follow tennis and just make blind bets but I have already noticed that the position of Nadal and Djokovic is more precarious than what we see from the bookmakers quotes. They look like the strongest favorites more due to their name than due to a real advantage over the rest.

vennali

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Quote from: Jating on July 06, 2022, 07:15:42 AM

Quote from: vennali on July 06, 2022, 05:03:04 AM

Thats the difference between the Big 3 and the rest. Even when not exactly in their prime, they still know how to not stop trying hard to reach their goal.That is to fight until the end. Well played by Sinner though, he is still young and has a lot to learn. Definitely has all the qualities to win a Grand Slam.

This is grand slam so this experience and big 2 (Nadal and Djokovic), will continue to reign. I mean down 0-2, and then take a toilet break, when he comes back he is a different animal, as if he flip the switch inside of him and then Sinner is done.

I will bet on the Over for the Garin vs Kyrgios, over 36.5 and maybe parlay with as well with the over 39.5 Nadal vs Fritz.

Fritz is playing well but I'm actually not sure how the match will go. Nadal is a different beast when he's on fire but, Fritz has been firing the ball in as well. Tough one to predict how the match will go. Nadal's playing style is a bit unique and to add to the fact that he's a lefty.

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Quote from: vennali on July 06, 2022, 05:03:04 AM

Thats the difference between the Big 3 and the rest. Even when not exactly in their prime, they still know how to not stop trying hard to reach their goal.That is to fight until the end. Well played by Sinner though, he is still young and has a lot to learn. Definitely has all the qualities to win a Grand Slam.

This is grand slam so this experience and big 2 (Nadal and Djokovic), will continue to reign. I mean down 0-2, and then take a toilet break, when he comes back he is a different animal, as if he flip the switch inside of him and then Sinner is done.

I will bet on the Over for the Garin vs Kyrgios, over 36.5 and maybe parlay with as well with the over 39.5 Nadal vs Fritz.

Trofo

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Quote from: KTChampions on July 06, 2022, 06:38:58 AM

Nadal quotes for today's match continue to fall. Initially, it was about 1.2 yesterday it was 1.3, and now you can bet on him with odds of 1.4. Does anyone know what's going on?

You mean continue to grow? I belive this is a perfect case when bookies get carried away and put one player as overwhelming favorite which is not the case in reality. Fritz is the only player in Wimbledon this season that still has not lost a single set. He also won against Nadal on hard earlier this year and grass should suit him even more.

Us gamblers realized the value on Fritz bet and obviously placed enough money on it so bookies had to readjust the odds.

KTChampions

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Quote from: buwaytress on July 06, 2022, 12:38:31 AM

@KTChampions ha I forgot you had that weird acca on the favs, think almost everyone in your picks saved you with comeback wins! Had some small successes myself, singles though and yesterday even tried an uncharacteristic tiny 3-legger with a 10USDT freebet win from the last 4-3-free (sportsbet), just need Halep to win today to book it!

Yes, despite the fact that I bet on the obvious favorites, they all won their games with great difficulty. You mean my multi bet is weird because it consists entirely of low odds that you don't like? In general, I agree, but lately I have been lucky for such bets and, by the way, their final odds are quite good. And yesterday's second weird multibet also won:

Nadal quotes for today's match continue to fall. Initially, it was about 1.2 yesterday it was 1.3, and now you can bet on him with odds of 1.4. Does anyone know what's going on?

vennali

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Thats the difference between the Big 3 and the rest. Even when not exactly in their prime, they still know how to not stop trying hard to reach their goal.That is to fight until the end. Well played by Sinner though, he is still young and has a lot to learn. Definitely has all the qualities to win a Grand Slam.

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Quote from: cryptofrka on July 06, 2022, 02:54:10 AM

It would not be fair to say that he gave the win to Đoković, but he wasn't playing freely or confidently after going 2-0 up.
-snip

Sinner probably thought he would lost in the end, and did not had the strength to win another set from 0:0, to be fair, I think he was not even close to win at any moment in the match, somehow this reminded me to last season QF on RG, with Mussetti, Djokovic was down 0:2, and then won 3:2, with two or three gems lost in whole three sets

nevertheless, at this moment, not so sure are Nadal and Djokovic that much better, or these new players are really not worth mentioning, seems easier to reach final at this point for Djoko, comparing to time when he was in full power (considering he is a bit older now)

with all that, still have Norrie outright, and I think that it could be an interesting SF, hoping for good odds at one point to hedge outright

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Quote from: Yaunfitda on July 06, 2022, 03:22:46 AM

What do you mean not attractive? Fritz is the underdog against Nadal at 3.05. Or are you talking about Nadal? yeah ML is not attractive at all.

And it's a tricky match to be honest, I'm leaning towards Fritz to win at least a set here, or maybe by a handicap for him at +2.5.

I hoped that the odds on Fritz would be at around 4 - I would have bet on him for sure then. At around 3, it isn't attractive enough.

I will fully skip today's matches - I simply can't find any decent value. Kyrgios is a time bomb but I don't think that he will blow it against Garin.

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Quote from: cryptofrka on July 06, 2022, 02:54:10 AM

Today's Nadal - Fritz match might prove to be more exciting than expected, Fritz has been great so far. I planned to bet on him winning - but the odds aren't that attractive.

What do you mean not attractive? Fritz is the underdog against Nadal at 3.05. Or are you talking about Nadal? yeah ML is not attractive at all.

And it's a tricky match to be honest, I'm leaning towards Fritz to win at least a set here, or maybe by a handicap for him at +2.5.

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Đoković showed his mental strength once again, he played some clutch points when needed. Sinner kind of fell apart easily in every of the last 3 sets - which was really disappointing to see. It was like he knew he would lose, and that is exactly why the mental side of sports is so important. It would not be fair to say that he gave the win to Đoković, but he wasn't playing freely or confidently after going 2-0 up.

Today's Nadal - Fritz match might prove to be more exciting than expected, Fritz has been great so far. I planned to bet on him winning - but the odds aren't that attractive.

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Quote from: vennali on July 05, 2022, 07:56:38 AM

Quote from: btc_angela on July 05, 2022, 06:21:05 AM

I'm jumping on the Djokovic bandwagon here, so I put a handicap bet -6.5, at 1.87 against Jannik. I might go for the over/under bet later, but for now that is the bet that I already put on.

I know that Sinner just 'upset' Alcaraz in 4 sets. So I wouldn't be surprised if Djokovic drop another set as well, but I think Djokovic can cover that spread even in a 4 or 5 set win.

Sounds like a good bet. that odds for -5.5 and I'd have jumped the gun. I expect Djoker to win the match in 4 sets. How closely contested? I guess we'll have to wait and find out.

Unfortunately it was very close, Djokovic losing the first 2 sets and then coming back in the last 3. The problem is that in the second set, it was 6-2 so that is a lot for him to cover in the 3 sets. And again, it was just -5 for his win, so obviously my bet didn't win. Was watching the match and I wanted to bet on Djokovic to win specially when he lost the first 2 because the ML jump so high.

But didn't jump on the gun, just decided to wait for my bet and enjoy the match. But after 4 sets, and 2-2. I knew already that I have lost my bet because Djokovic will have to win 6-0 in the final set in order to cover my -6.5.

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Quote from: aoluain on July 06, 2022, 01:14:28 AM

In todays Quarters I am fearing more for Nadal than Kyrgios. Fritz is going well
and has beaten Nadal already but yea this is a GS.

If we look just at best tennis levels these players can produce then I absolutely agree. But then you add the fact that Nadal is mental beast in BO5 matches and Kyrgios is quite unstable and then I am not so sure. Than you also add the fact that police in Australia are looking for Kyrgios regarding some domestic violence stuff and that he could get a couple of years of prison time....that will not help his concentration.

Anyway my initial bets for today is for underdogs to take at least 1 set and over games.

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Quote from: Kemarit on July 05, 2022, 08:30:31 PM

Quote from: bct_ail on July 05, 2022, 04:10:22 PM

Djokovic used his toilet break today to talk to his reflection. Obviously it listened well after Djokovic lost the first two sets. Cheesy

But I really liked the way Sinner played today and I'm sure we will see a lot more from him in the future. I'm looking forward to the next tournaments with him.

LOL, he admitted that he had a pep talk in the bathroom and perhaps he wanted to psyche himself. Yeah, still impressive play by Sinner, taking out Alcaraz earlier and then almost beat Djokovic. He is still 20 years old, before we forget. So a lot of good tennis from this kid. And I thought that he can do it after winning the first two sets.

So it will be Norrie vs Djokovic in the semifinals, haven't check the odds, but for sure Djokovic again will be the favorite.

Well Sinner certainly has upped his game at Wimbledon, big dissapointment for him
though. Didnt Djokovic do the same at the French open 2 or 3 years ago? gave Tsitsipas 2
sets and then won the other 3!

Quote from: buwaytress on July 06, 2022, 12:38:31 AM

Been a few nice green slips for me at Wimbledon too, the upset/comeback picks are quite good. Really wish had more time to bet live too, miss out all the 0-2 down bets but no complaints.

Kyrgios, Nadal or Djoko has to be the next casualty, agree? No problem for me to put one bet each on Garin and Fritz, but I'll wait for Fritz to get above 4/1 if I happen to be able to live, for now Aussie killer Garin @4.54, see if he keeps earning me money.

snip

In todays Quarters I am fearing more for Nadal than Kyrgios. Fritz is going well
and has beaten Nadal already but yea this is a GS.

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Been a few nice green slips for me at Wimbledon too, the upset/comeback picks are quite good. Really wish had more time to bet live too, miss out all the 0-2 down bets but no complaints.

Kyrgios, Nadal or Djoko has to be the next casualty, agree? No problem for me to put one bet each on Garin and Fritz, but I'll wait for Fritz to get above 4/1 if I happen to be able to live, for now Aussie killer Garin @4.54, see if he keeps earning me money.

@KTChampions ha I forgot you had that weird acca on the favs, think almost everyone in your picks saved you with comeback wins! Had some small successes myself, singles though and yesterday even tried an uncharacteristic tiny 3-legger with a 10USDT freebet win from the last 4-3-free (sportsbet), just need Halep to win today to book it!

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Quote from: bct_ail on July 05, 2022, 04:10:22 PM

Djokovic used his toilet break today to talk to his reflection. Obviously it listened well after Djokovic lost the first two sets. Cheesy

But I really liked the way Sinner played today and I'm sure we will see a lot more from him in the future. I'm looking forward to the next tournaments with him.

LOL, he admitted that he had a pep talk in the bathroom and perhaps he wanted to psyche himself. Yeah, still impressive play by Sinner, taking out Alcaraz earlier and then almost beat Djokovic. He is still 20 years old, before we forget. So a lot of good tennis from this kid. And I thought that he can do it after winning the first two sets.

So it will be Norrie vs Djokovic in the semifinals, haven't check the odds, but for sure Djokovic again will be the favorite.

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Djokovic used his toilet break today to talk to his reflection. Obviously it listened well after Djokovic lost the first two sets. Cheesy

But I really liked the way Sinner played today and I'm sure we will see a lot more from him in the future. I'm looking forward to the next tournaments with him.

Topic: Tennis League All Thread - page 242. (Read 203509 times)