Topic: 🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈 - page 214. (Read 58731 times)

The only bet I have for now is the Ravens handicap -12.5 I was able to get them at 1.97 few days ago now it moved to 13.5.

They're also my final pick on the survivor pool i've never reached this far in any pool i'm so nervous at the same time excited.  One user on the subreddit shared this interesting info on the Bengals being 12-0 at the final week.

Hmm, early retirement sounds nice. 

Okay fine, 16 games, you talked me into it.  Of course the sports book limited my wager to a very small sum, so early retirement isn't gonna happen but a new truck might. 

All that matters is if it felt good doing it

Ok, now you've shamed me into a parlay of all 16 games. I didn't want to go through the hassle of depositing new funds for a measly 5000x payout LOL so I just scraped up some change... still would be good enough for an early retirement. I'm guessing the bet will be dead by around 1:30 PM EST

Crazy day ahead of us, a lot on the line for a bunch of teams.

Matthew Stafford is playing after all, this could very well be his last game for Detroit, he should make it count, even though this is a meaningless game with both teams out of the playoffs. I need 30+ rec yards from Hockenson, hopefully we don't get to see Chase Daniel in action again, and 70+ rec yards from MIN rookie J.Jefferson.

If Baker goes down, i go down with him, Browns ml + B.Mayfield 7+ rush yards + B.Mayfield 1+ pass TD, Baker had a tough time last week with basically all his WRs out, anything but the Browns winning by 10+ pts will be a surprise to me.

I will try to watch both Steelers/Browns and Dolphins/Bills matches to start the day.

Who would have tought some weeks ago that the Jets are only slight underdog at the Patriots....and I think their odds still have value, lol. NE just wants this season to finish I guess, while the Jets might want to keep playing given their recent success. They beat two teams who were fighting for their PO spot and I can't see any reason, why they shouldn't be able to also beat the Pats in this divisional matchup, who have averaged an abysmal 8pts in their last three. I would like to see Cam start for this bet, but Stidham will be fine too. I think the odds for the Jets just aren't <2, because it would be too weird to see the Jets being favourite. But for me they are, Jets ML @2.40.

And I generally like the Broncos ML, not sure what makes the Raiders favs here. They both have their fair share of injuries and I read everywhere how banged up the DEN defense is, but they were doing ok-ish imo against the Chargers. I would more worry about the LV defense which allows their opponents to score heavily on them. But I won't have a pre-match bet here, since the Raiders are doing very good on the road this season (5-2, @home only 2-6).


Down to ~1.50 already

I can recall a few poker hands that I decided were worth an expensive bluff, but weren't.  And I'm sure there are plenty more that I don't care to recall, lol.  Does that count?

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The Bills look like a sure thing on paper, but there are too many variables at play with this one.  Miami has a lot to gain, and the Bills have little to lose.  Worst case scenario they would have to play an away game in Pittsburgh on their way to Kansas City.



I like that, I may shadow you on that one.  I also like the Cardinals at -2.5 for the same odds, or Green Bay at -3.5 for slightly more.  I haven't decided yet, I'll probably work something out in the morning as I'm not in the mood tonight...

My daughter brought over some eggnog left over from Christmas, and you know, it has milk in it, so it's gonna go bad if it doesn't get consumed soon.  Like tonight...  I do what I can to help out.

I want Miami to win but I agree with you here. It's actually down to +2 and +1.5 in a few books. AFAIK Bills are starting Josh Allen. They might ease up a little now they clinched their playoff spot, whereas Dolphins will be coming full throttle. I still don't think it will be enough and project Tua will choke under the pressure (though I hope I'm wrong).

My only bet I placed for tomorrow was Titans -7... seems like it should be easy enough for them.

They had a few good games recently but the opponents weren't very strong... Jets... Bengals... Patriots... barely won against Raiders just because they (Raiders) screwed up.

I think +2.5 is a bit too generous for Dolphins. Tua is unreliable. Their defense is good though. I guess it's mostly about the uncertainty of how committed Bills will be and not about the relative strength of the teams. Same as with many if not most week 17 matches, particularly where one of the teams doesn't have much to play for.

Agreed. Matt Barkley also tweeted see you in the playoffs which implies that there might be much more fans than presently allowed to watch the game. This should help the Bills performance in their home stadium and get the bye if they clinch 2nd seed.

In any case, are the Dolphins a good team to be given only +2.5? Should it be not +7?

Touché. But I've already done multis that I regret, so I got that covered

"Pittsburgh Steelers' Mason Rudolph hasn't heard from Cleveland Browns' Myles Garrett, open to chat."
source: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30633830/pittsburgh-steelers-mason-rudolph-heard-cleveland-browns-myles-garrett-open-chat

Haha, not the Disney movie endings  , 'open to chat', what is that? Seriously bro, get sacked!

https://twitter.com/B1ackSchefter/status/1202324517940535301

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It's a shame i won't have enough time to go thoroughly over the matches tomorrow, as there will be plenty of good spots and money to be made.

Lions sucked so bad last week, and they will probably be without Stafford/Golladay again, D.Cook out for MIN, so J.Jefferson is primed for a 100/1+ td game.
Colts are very likely to cover that 2-score spread against the Jags.
Cardinals -3 is an absolute steal considering who will be Rams QB on Sunday, add to this a few key players who are missing, a no brainer.
NO Saints player prop lines should be worth checking, with all their RBs out, T. Hill to score anytime looks tasty.
Huh, Steelers are resting a lot of players tomorrow, not just Big Ben, line @ +10 is almost unplayable, 1.20 Browns ml parlayed with something similar and a bigger stake seems the way to go.
I want to see WFT advance to the playoffs, no Fletcher Cox, Sanders, Goedert, and Jackson for PHI, i just hope Alex Smith can finish the game.

Lol, I thought you were going to say that was your multi, and you had put 1BTC on it.  

I like most of your picks, but yeah, the Chiefs...  And you never know about the Steelers, their defense could show up and keep it the scores to single digits.

I still think Lawrence will be the pick of the Jaguars, however Fields is without a doubt raising his value with this performance, some mock drafts had the Jets taking Fields while some others had the Jets taking some other player, if the Jets are not taking Fields then they can try to trade out of it as there are some teams that could be interested in picking that high to secure Fields now.

Without a doubt the game was not as close as I was expecting it to be and the key play was the vicious hit Fields took on the ribs, the LB was disqualified for targeting and that was the leader of the Clemson defence so from that point on it was an even easier game for the Ohio State offence, Fields showed great poise and I was pleasantly surprised by his accuracy, he made some throws in tight coverage that were impressive, the only thing I did not liked was the fact that he takes too many risks when running the ball and he even goes out of his way to block on running plays, I am sure this is by design but he needs to tune down those tendencies on the NFL.

LOL.

Love the giants +6.5.  No way they blow out the giants, unless jones is still hesitant to run cause of his hamstring injury.  If jones is mobile and keeps the turnovers to maybe 1, I think the giants moneyline isn't a bad play here.  Good luck

Here's what I've done, don't try this at home, this stunt can be performed only by a professional loser:

Jets +6.5
Cardinals ML
Giants +6.5
Raiders +6.5
Steelers +10.5
FT +6.5
Eagles/FT total under 42.5
Titans -3.5
Ravens -9.5
Bills -2.5
Chiefs ML
Saints -3.5
Seahawks -2.5
Vikings ML
Packers -3.5
Colts -9.5
Buccaneers -3.5

Keep in mind that unlike you all I placed these bets a week ago... so that I could spend my New Year's break drinking doing very interesting things without having to worry about yards and points and injuries. Some of these are likely duds now, like Chiefs and fucking Steelers, but some tilted my way (e.g. Cardinals ML odds was 2.2 when I placed the bet, it's now ~1.7). I need to win about 10 or 11 of the 17 bets to break even for the week.

I think the giants win this one outright.  Agreed it will take a great game defensively but its definately doable.  Dallas isn't scaring anyone at this point.  It will probably come down to turnovers and who forces more that will probably win a tightly battled game.

If this wasn't a divisional matchup, where the Bills can spoil the party for the Dolphins, I would even go for Miami ML. Given the Steelers will tank against the Browns, then it would be better for the Bills to lose as well - playing the Browns is easier than the Colts imo. And the Steelers would get punished for obviously tanking by getting to play the Ravens instead of the Browns.

Maybe something for inplay, if the Steelers are down by 2+ TD's


Giants started ~1.65 two weeks ago and after Dallas' good performances, they suddenly were ~1.65 favs. Now the odds are slowly going up again, maybe also because of the Covid issues. Giants can only win this with one hell of a game defensively. They will probably struggle to score 20+ points again - even against the subpar Cowboys defense - and Dallas has averaged 36pts in their last 3. I would follow the Covid news in Dallas, see who is on the plane and then go for Dallas.


This is a game, that I would just leave alone, too hard to figure out. If you want to bet on this one badly, then I would choose Steelers ML. It's a bit strange to me, that PIT seems to show no interest in winning this one, because they can prevent CLE getting into the PO's by winning (assuming the Colts beat the Jags). This sounds like a nice prize......

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The Jaguars must have hated watching this game and Fields stealing the show Too much to think about now.....and imagine Fields having another game like this against Alabama.

Big day on Sunday with an extra serving of games. What teams do you guys like to cover?

I find these to be interesting:

Miami/Buffalo - Miami really needs this game but I just don't see them winning or even beating a +3 point spread. I'm waking up early to watch this one though...

Dallas/NY Giants - This has the makings of a good game but with a +2 Giants spread its too close to call. Giants tend to cover a lot more than Dallas, but it could be a blowout for Dallas and a massive V.

Pittsburgh/Cleveland - The line started at -6.5 Cleveland and has since moved as high as -10.5 on some books. Big Ben is out for this game, which probably explains it. Pretty sure Cleveland will win but -10 is too high for my tastes.

Arizona/LA Rams - Normally I'd be excited to take the Rams here but with Goff and Kupp out I'm a bit wary of what may happen. Goff is not my favorite quarterback, but he's a constant. Who knows how this Wolford guy is going to play, especially under this kind of late season pressure.

Tennessee/Houston - Titans need this game to stay alive in the playoff runnings; Texans are out. Titans team is relatively healthy whereas the Texans have a lot of injuries, including DeShaun Watson, who is starting but is listed as having a hand injury. Houston has lost their last 4 games in a row -- its all over for them. But the question is will the Titans cover the -7.5 spread and I'm thinking yes, they will. I will probably bet -7 just to play it safe... Maybe I'll place a bet on both.

Meh, technicalities


Buckeyes are crushing it. Lawrence should go full Tiger King mullet instead of this half-assed washed up 80s rockstar look. That's my honest assessment totally unrelated to my bets

I can think of a few non reversible actions that this would not be true for.