🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈 - page 218.

DireWolfM14

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Quote from: tyKiwanuka on December 27, 2020, 08:16:41 AM

Played Steelers tb Colts, since Indy will be missing Smith and Castonzo and this is a recipe for disaster against this PIT front 7. Conner and Williams will be back in action for the Steelers and this should help to get them back on track against a bit overrated team like the Colts are still for me.

The Colt's two OTs being out is a bit worrying, but they have a deep stack to durable running backs to compensate. I suspect the Steelers D-Line will have their hands full nonetheless.

Quote from: suchmoon on December 27, 2020, 10:04:12 AM

Cardinals screwed up my awesome parlay

I would put the blame squarely on the 49ers. Tongue

However, I have no choice but to blame the Lions for my multi-miss.

Quote from: suchmoon on December 27, 2020, 10:44:34 AM

Quote from: wheelz1200 on December 27, 2020, 10:37:21 AM

Chiefs does look like a trap game but the Falcons suck.

Chiefs are virtually guaranteed^* the playoff bye so they don't have anything to play for.

I can't see how the Steelers or the Bills could possibly strip the top seed from the Chiefs at this point, it certainly looks like they have nothing left to win. I just learned that Mahomes will be starting, so maybe Andy Reid is trying to match the best regular season record (15-1) of the 16-Game era... I don't know, seems like a risky bet.

My Sunday Morning Multi (disclaimer: I've yet to win a multi.) Cool

NYG @ Baltimore: Over 42.5 (1.74)
Cincinnati @ Houston: Under 46.5 (1.80)
Atlanta @ KC: KC Over 32.5 (1.85)
Cleveland @ NYJ: Kareem Hunt Rushing Yards Over 46.5 (1.80)
Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh: Steelers +2.5 (1.80)
Total odds: 20.46

Best of luck with your bets, all.

suchmoon

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Quote from: wheelz1200 on December 27, 2020, 10:37:21 AM

Chiefs does look like a trap game but the Falcons suck. No way I can bet against the chiefs so that would be the last one I'd be sweating out. The Packers always screw me. Spreads, ml, and o/u games i always lose when the Packers are involved. Cant bet on them anymore so I wish you luck with them

. Texans is a tough one. Cincinnati doesn't look as bad as they should. Staying away from that one as well.

Chiefs are virtually guaranteed^* the playoff bye so they don't have anything to play for. I mean they would likely win but can still screw up my -6.5 spread.

^* technically it's very very complicated in case Steelers and Bills win both of their remaining games (edit: and Chiefs lose both) but that's just math, who cares.

morvillz7z

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I have the Bears and Ravens to win from the early 1 p.m games @1.55 and higher stake, something i picked a few days ago, kinda weird putting money on Trubisky but hey, Jaguars have no room for error lol, they even ruled out James Robinson for this one, so good luck Mike Glennon. I think Chicago has the tie-breaker over Cardinals, and a chance to get a wild card spot if they win their last two or Cardinals lose again next week to Rams, gotta double check though...

please no more upsets today! Cheesy

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Quote from: suchmoon on December 27, 2020, 10:04:12 AM

Cardinals screwed up my awesome parlay (Saints/Bucs/Cardinals/Dolphins) and Steelers are obviously going to be Steelers again, so I can afford only two more losses if I want to break even this week... if I had to bet on my own failures I'd say Texans, Chiefs, and Packers will do me in.

Chiefs does look like a trap game but the Falcons suck. No way I can bet against the chiefs so that would be the last one I'd be sweating out. The Packers always screw me. Spreads, ml, and o/u games i always lose when the Packers are involved. Cant bet on them anymore so I wish you luck with them

. Texans is a tough one. Cincinnati doesn't look as bad as they should. Staying away from that one as well.

suchmoon

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Cardinals screwed up my awesome parlay (Saints/Bucs/Cardinals/Dolphins) and Steelers are obviously going to be Steelers again, so I can afford only two more losses if I want to break even this week... if I had to bet on my own failures I'd say Texans, Chiefs, and Packers will do me in.

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Quote from: ChiBitCTy on December 24, 2020, 10:42:07 AM

I'm curious, at what point in the week do you all place your bets? I will admit of a bad habit and that is normally placing my bets Sunday morning about an hour or so before kick off. Now I know this is not the smartest approach of attack. I however really am not gambling savvy enough to know when to place bets. I suppose a seasoned gambler looks at all the lines the moment they are released that then just follows them throughout the week and depending on certain things ( injuries, covid news etc) they may place a bet early or wait until game day. I do know it can also be advantageous to place bets at times right at the open. For example I bet the Browns game this past week and I did it the moment they had the coin toss. Since Cleveland lost the line dropped from I believe -6.5 to -4.5. The browns were still the easy favorite so I was all over that -4.5 spread. I wonder if this kind of spread drop due to a coin toss loss is very prevalent?

Always on Sundays. Injury reports and now covid drop outs aren't really known until then. Some teams, like the saints, pretty much lie about their true injury report. You can catch some better lines early in the week chi but I like walking in with full knowledge. (Disclaimer I suck at football betting so don't take my word Grin

)

tyKiwanuka

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#birdgang

Quote from: DireWolfM14 on December 26, 2020, 07:06:36 PM

WTF is wrong with Robbie Gould? The dude is usually automatic. A missed 41y FG, and now a missed extra point?

Was funny how the "experts" were linking it to Peterson possibly blocking the FG and thats why Gould sent it more to the left/right when kicking. I don't believe in that, because it's super rare to get a FG/PAT blocked; just a bad day for him.

Played Steelers tb Colts, since Indy will be missing Smith and Castonzo and this is a recipe for disaster against this PIT front 7. Conner and Williams will be back in action for the Steelers and this should help to get them back on track against a bit overrated team like the Colts are still for me.

Adding Jets vs Browns under 44 Roll Eyes

Browns literally will be without WR's, since they were all put on the covid list. I also would like to play the Jets ML, since they lost the #1 draft pick now. Jags will lose both their remaining games, so Jets don't have to worry about having to lose no more. But the ML odds are a bit low. Something around 5 would be better.

My locks for the day are the Ravens and Chiefs and I will parlay them ML.

Cowboys look a bit high against the Eagles, but you can get them >3 inplay I think. Looking forward to GB-TEN, this should see some points

rdbase

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Had one bet win yesterday with the stellar performance of the saints and Kamara breaking a record held since 1929 on the number of rushing yards in a half. He could of broke the record for the amount of rushing td in a single game but they held him off for number six to be able to complete it. Undecided

Today I had a bet on Tom Brady with 320+ yards and scoring 3+ passing tds which won but was only off by one point as I had the game at over 54.5 Roll Eyes

2 missed extra points and 1 missed field goal by detroit really made me upset. Angry

Should of picked the 335+ yards (he had over 348 yards and got to sit off for the entire second half) and 4+ passing td for the same odds.

nutildah

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Quote from: DireWolfM14 on December 26, 2020, 07:06:36 PM

WTF is wrong with Robbie Gould? The dude is usually automatic. A missed 41y FG, and now a missed extra point?

Looks like the Niners are playing spoiler for our hosts... How rude, after let us stay in their house for the last month.

Anyway, looks like my prediction of Under 49.5 is very likely, but I must admit I imagined the score reversed.

ETA: Unbelievable, now he missed a chip-shot FG that would have sealed the game...

Yeah the announcers on the radio were just talking about how he had yet to renew his contract for next season... Don't think this will tilt things in his favor.

But I'm more sad about accruing my first loss in the month of December. I can't believe it... on paper and in theory Arizona shoulda won this game. To be fair, on paper SF had the better defense, and it showed this game.

DireWolfM14

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WTF is wrong with Robbie Gould? The dude is usually automatic. A missed 41y FG, and now a missed extra point?

Looks like the Niners are playing spoiler for our hosts... How rude, after let us stay in their house for the last month.

Anyway, looks like my prediction of Under 49.5 is very likely, but I must admit I imagined the score reversed.

ETA: Unbelievable, now he missed a chip-shot FG that would have sealed the game...

Have the Chiefs clinched the top seed? It appears that the only teams that could match their record are the Bills and the Steelers. Both would have to win out, and the Chiefs would have to lose out, but I believe the Chiefs have tie breakers with both.

ralle14

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Shuffle.com

I got the Cardinals on the last leg of my parlay hopefully the 49ers doesn't pull anything crazy here so I could get my first free bet win. Cheesy

Edit : It's going down the wire. 49ers defense showed up big.

South Park

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Quote from: nutildah on December 24, 2020, 05:45:51 PM

I ended up putting in a bet on Cardinals ML for 1.43x. I'm also looking at Carolina vs. Washington. If Alex Smith comes back then I would take Was. -1, but I don't really care for this Haskins guy. Went out celebrating at a strip club after his last performance, got fined $40k, wasn't even wearing a mask. The worst part of it was he had lost that day's game.

https://nypost.com/2020/12/24/dwayne-haskins-may-be-washingtons-starter-despite-stripper-party/

Alex Smith is listed as questionable according to yesterday’s news and at this point I will take an Alex Smith on one leg over a 100% Haskins any day of the week. which is a shame since seemingly Haskins has everything going for him, he has the size, the arm, and a good teammate on Alex which could sit down with him and help him in his learning process but instead he is out celebrating in a loss.

https://www.nfl.com/news/washington-qb-alex-smith-calf-50-50-to-play-sunday-vs-panthers

Quote from: morvillz7z on December 24, 2020, 07:36:24 PM

Does anyone know what's the exact NFL protocol for covid violations? Broncos were left high and dry not allowed to have any QBs vs. Saints a couple of weeks ago, and this dude has been practicing through the week and likely to start on Saturday (less than a week), i mean what is that?

It seems it is a discretionary process decided among the league and the team, since WAS needs Haskins in the case Smith cannot play and they are in contention for a playoff spot it is likely the league let it pass despite this being the second time Haskins has being caught violating the protocols.

https://www.profootballrumors.com/2020/12/washington-will-not-suspend-dwayne-haskins

There is not really too much to comment about the current game, TB is destroying DET and they will allow Brady to get the perfect passing rating for the third time in his career.

I hope the SF vs ARI and MIA vs LV matches are more entertaining.

morvillz7z

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Quote from: suchmoon on December 26, 2020, 01:25:02 PM

You're hurting Gronk's feelings but you won that one barely half a quarter into the game. Well done.

Thanks, that didn't really take long, kinda surprised but the way this game is going, it really doesn't matter who i picked, everyone will score. Cheesy

Quote from: Hueristic on December 26, 2020, 01:29:55 PM

Bad luck, this should have been a lock.

Yeah too bad, to roll your ankle on the first drive while the play was over, i mean injuries...what can you do, the risk of prop bets. Lions probably won't hit over 10pts now with Chase Daniel, i will take the split though.

Quote from: DireWolfM14 on December 26, 2020, 10:52:02 AM

Tampa Bay @ Detroit +12.5 (1.73)

Stafford's injury is likely to ruin this one for you, maybe AP and Swift come back in the second half and save the day,...who knows?!

DireWolfM14

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Damn it, Stafford stepping out isn't part of the plan. That's bound to fuck my multi bet right from the get-go, it's already looking like a handicap of +12.5 is nothing but a pipedream for Detroit.

Quote from: morvillz7z on December 26, 2020, 01:56:40 PM

Quote from: DireWolfM14 on December 26, 2020, 10:52:02 AM

Tampa Bay @ Detroit +12.5 (1.73)

Stafford's injury is likely to ruin this one for you, maybe AP and Swift come back in the second half and save the day,...who knows?!

Any given Sunday (or Saturday, as the case may be,) anything could happen.

But this is the Lyons we're talking about. Sorry, suchmoon...

ETA: It's already 27-0, Tampa with less than 5 minutes to go in the half.

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Quote from: morvillz7z on December 26, 2020, 12:41:43 PM

Stafford 1+ TDs

Bad luck, this should have been a lock.

suchmoon

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Quote from: morvillz7z on December 26, 2020, 12:41:43 PM

Mike Evans is Brady's preferred target in the red zone.

You're hurting Gronk's feelings but you won that one barely half a quarter into the game. Well done.

Edit: Stafford out though... you might be SOL on the other one.

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Quote from: DireWolfM14 on December 25, 2020, 08:28:40 PM

Lol, 7 rushing TDs, 0 passing. Not your usual outing for the Saints and Brees. That was an amazing performance by Kamara, 6 rushing TDs matches the league record, set in 1929, a 91 year old record. That was damn cool to watch.

I was able to catch his 6th and final TD, witnessing history right there, absolutely insane stat line by Kamara. I also read that Taysom Hill took one TD away from him at the goal line, imagine setting the all-time record with 7? Shocked

Quote from: DireWolfM14 on December 25, 2020, 08:28:40 PM

Even the announcers were talking about the fantasy implications. I'm sure that won the week for anyone with Kamara on the team, and possibly sealed the season for many.

50+ fantasy points by one player is something i have never seen before, i'm not sure if that's a fantasy record but damn, looking back, i drafted Saquon Barkley instead of Kamara, that didn't quite pan out. haha

Here's what i got for Bucs @ Detroit game which starts soon:

Bucs O1.5 TDs + Evans Anytime scorer @2.07

I've zero doubts Tampa will score two TDs or more in this one, and Mike Evans is Brady's preferred target in the red zone.

Stafford 1+ TDs + Lions O13.5 pts + Hockenson 30+ rec yards @1.68

I don't trust Bucs secondary, hence i think Lions can put points on the board, Stafford might have more freedom in choosing which pass plays are called as their interim coach Bevell is out due to covid. Hockenson had a bad game vs. Titans, but i expect him to bounce back (might even take one as him scoring a td). In his previous three games: 1TD, 28 targets and 216 rec yards.

DireWolfM14

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on December 26, 2020, 12:17:21 AM

Hello NFL experts! The Steelers and the Packers are certain to go on to the playoffs. Do you reckon a multibet on their opponents, the Colts and the Titans, is a good bet? Titans and Colts are in a close battle to clinch AFC south division and might play harder than opponents that clinched their slots already.

I wouldn't bet against the Packers. They're still trying to secure the top seed, which means a first round bye. Another week of rest and preparation is a coveted spot, and this year only one team from each conference gets it. I expect the Titans to put up a good fight, however.

The Steelers have been in downward spiral since losing to Washington in week 13. With the Colts this week, and Browns next week I'm more inclined to bet against the Steelers for their next two games. They're still stout on defense, but the last two weeks their offense has been abysmal.

Here's what I'm thinking for today's games:

Tampa Bay @ Detroit +12.5 (1.73)
San Francisco @ Arizona: Under 49.5 (1.82)
Miami @ Las Vegas: ML (1.72)

Total odds: 5.42

suchmoon

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on December 26, 2020, 12:17:21 AM

Hello NFL experts! The Steelers and the Packers are certain to go on to the playoffs. Do you reckon a multibet on their opponents, the Colts and the Titans, is a good bet? Titans and Colts are in a close battle to clinch AFC south division and might play harder than opponents that clinched their slots already.

I bet on both Packers and Steelers so that probably means Titans and Colts win.

bbc.reporter

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Hello NFL experts! The Steelers and the Packers are certain to go on to the playoffs. Do you reckon a multibet on their opponents, the Colts and the Titans, is a good bet? Titans and Colts are in a close battle to clinch AFC south division and might play harder than opponents that clinched their slots already.

Topic: 🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈 - page 218. (Read 58725 times)