Topic: 🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈 - page 216. (Read 57642 times)

I got the Cardinals on the last leg of my parlay hopefully the 49ers doesn't pull anything crazy here so I could get my first free bet win.  

Edit : It's going down the wire. 49ers defense showed up big.

Alex Smith is listed as questionable according to yesterday’s news and at this point I will take an Alex Smith on one leg over a 100% Haskins any day of the week. which is a shame since seemingly Haskins has everything going for him, he has the size, the arm, and a good teammate on Alex which could sit down with him and help him in his learning process but instead he is out celebrating in a loss.

https://www.nfl.com/news/washington-qb-alex-smith-calf-50-50-to-play-sunday-vs-panthers


It seems it is a discretionary process decided among the league and the team, since WAS needs Haskins in the case Smith cannot play and they are in contention for a playoff spot it is likely the league let it pass despite this being the second time Haskins has being caught violating the protocols.

https://www.profootballrumors.com/2020/12/washington-will-not-suspend-dwayne-haskins

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There is not really too much to comment about the current game, TB is destroying DET and they will allow Brady to get the perfect passing rating for the third time in his career.

I hope the SF vs ARI and MIA vs LV matches are more entertaining.

Thanks, that didn't really take long, kinda surprised but the way this game is going, it really doesn't matter who i picked, everyone will score. 


Yeah too bad, to roll your ankle on the first drive while the play was over, i mean injuries...what can you do, the risk of prop bets. Lions probably won't hit over 10pts now with Chase Daniel, i will take the split though.


Stafford's injury is likely to ruin this one for you, maybe AP and Swift come back in the second half and save the day,...who knows?!

Damn it, Stafford stepping out isn't part of the plan.  That's bound to fuck my multi bet right from the get-go, it's already looking like a handicap of +12.5 is nothing but a pipedream for Detroit.

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Any given Sunday (or Saturday, as the case may be,) anything could happen.  

But this is the Lyons we're talking about.  Sorry, suchmoon...

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ETA: It's already 27-0, Tampa with less than 5 minutes to go in the half. 

Bad luck, this should have been a lock.

You're hurting Gronk's feelings but you won that one barely half a quarter into the game. Well done.

Edit: Stafford out though... you might be SOL on the other one.

I was able to catch his 6th and final TD, witnessing history right there, absolutely insane stat line by Kamara. I also read that Taysom Hill took one TD away from him at the goal line, imagine setting the all-time record with 7? 


50+ fantasy points by one player is something i have never seen before, i'm not sure if that's a fantasy record but damn, looking back, i drafted Saquon Barkley instead of Kamara, that didn't quite pan out. haha

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Here's what i got for Bucs @ Detroit game which starts soon:

Bucs O1.5 TDs + Evans Anytime scorer @2.07

I've zero doubts Tampa will score two TDs or more in this one, and Mike Evans is Brady's preferred target in the red zone.

Stafford 1+ TDs + Lions O13.5 pts + Hockenson 30+ rec yards @1.68

I don't trust Bucs secondary, hence i think Lions can put points on the board, Stafford might have more freedom in choosing which pass plays are called as their interim coach Bevell is out due to covid. Hockenson had a bad game vs. Titans, but i expect him to bounce back (might even take one as him scoring a td). In his previous three games: 1TD, 28 targets and 216 rec yards.

I wouldn't bet against the Packers.  They're still trying to secure the top seed, which means a first round bye.  Another week of rest and preparation is a coveted spot, and this year only one team from each conference gets it.  I expect the Titans to put up a good fight, however.

The Steelers have been in downward spiral since losing to Washington in week 13.  With the Colts this week, and Browns next week I'm more inclined to bet against the Steelers for their next two games.  They're still stout on defense, but the last two weeks their offense has been abysmal.

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Here's what I'm thinking for today's games:

Tampa Bay @ Detroit +12.5 (1.73)
San Francisco @ Arizona: Under 49.5 (1.82)
Miami @ Las Vegas: ML (1.72)

Total odds: 5.42

I bet on both Packers and Steelers so that probably means Titans and Colts win.

Hello NFL experts! The Steelers and the Packers are certain to go on to the playoffs. Do you reckon a multibet on their opponents, the Colts and the Titans, is a good bet? Titans and Colts are in a close battle to clinch AFC south division and might play harder than opponents that clinched their slots already.

Lol, 7 rushing TDs, 0 passing.  Not your usual outing for the Saints and Brees.  That was an amazing performance by Kamara, 6 rushing TDs matches the league record, set in 1929, a 91 year old record.  That was damn cool to watch.  


Even the announcers were talking about the fantasy implications.  I'm sure that won the week for anyone with Kamara on the team, and possibly sealed the season for many.

Kamara was literally dragging someone down the field at one point... some poor sod who tried to tackle him and was hanging onto his leg. But for some reason they didn't let him score a 6th TD  . Edit: ok, now he's got it LOL.


Christmas spirit.
 

There is absolutely no defense in this game! Its just back and forth scoring points!
These defenses took the day off, even on fourth down the Vikings Defense isnt stopping anyone.
This is an offense showdown!

I'm not watching the game but damn, whoever has Kamara in their fantasy team, congrats on winning your league, almost 100 yards and 3 rush TDs AT THE HALF.    Didn't have much time to research the game today but still ended up with this, i need 49 passing yards from Brees and 19 rec yards from Jefferson, easy peasy, right?

This is what I ended up taking for today's game.
 
Saints -3.5 , Justin Jefferson o65 rec yards @2.6

After the Chiefs game it's hard not to see them win and I got tempted by the Jefferson prop since he's able to cover at least 70 yards in the last 4/5 games.

Edit : Jefferson pulled through in garbage time. 

I don't know what to play in Saints game. It's hard to see the Saints not winning today, but I am not so sure, whether they will able to beat the HC, which stands at 6.5. MIN still has some tiny PO hopes, so they should be interested in this one. I see lots of talks about how the Saints defense will shut down the Vikings running game, but they were able to get 162yds/201yds rushing yards against #1/#3 rushing defenses Tampa/Seattle, so I think they will do just fine offensively.
This is all about the Saints offense vs the poor Vikings defense. Brees was doing ok against the Chiefs, but he can't be at 100% already. The more I think about this game, the more I get the feeling the Vikings will win this - if they show up; they have been a bit hot and cold this season. But I'll pass on placing a bet.

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If you know a sport/league inside out, then you should place your bets as soon as odds come out, since you will find the most value then. The nearer you get to kick-off, the more matured the odds are. As suchmoon said, you will have bad luck here and there with injuries etc. not going your way, but this evens out longterm, so no problem.

If you just have average knowledge, it doesn't matter imo, since you most likely have no edge anyway. I would even say, it's better to wait in this scenario so that you have all information available once you place the bet.

As I said in the past, the best way is to not have any prematch bets at all, but to master the inplay game. And this goes for every sport, not just NFL. But this takes a) a lot of time and b) a lot of your time

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With two weeks to go, I checked my outright bets again:


Cardinals 8-6 -> won
Bills 11-3 -> won
Carolina 4-10: They still play @Washington and then host the Saints in week 17, I hope they don't win both
Raiders 7-7: They host the Dolphins tomorrow and then play @Broncos, could still win.
Vikings 6-8 -> lost, a bit disappointed with them, but as said above, they were good in some games, only to have poor losses the next game.
Patriots 6-8 -> won
Giants 5-9: With @Ravens coming up and then playing the Cowboys at home, this would be a push at best, but Dallas has found their rhythm lately, so looks more like a loss, though Giants are 1.65-ish fav.

If I trust on the Raiders getting one more win and Panthers not winning both their remaining games, I would go 5-2 or 5-1-1 with these bets (always think positive^^)

Okay, here's what I'm thinking for this afternoon's game:

New Orleans -4.5 @ 1.78
Over 48.5 @ 1.74
Brees Passing TDs over 2.5 @ 2.28

That last one seems like a really good deal, the Viking's passing defense isn't likely to prevent three passing touchdowns.

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In other news; the Titans have listed linebacker Will Compton as doubtful, the injury listed is "Haircut."

Same, i'm very high on the Cardinals this week, i've secured -4.5 early, don't want to see the line move close to 6.5.
Murray is a nightmare matchup for banged-up 49ers, who will also be without Mullens, Mostert and Deebo on offense, so yeah.
I'm not sure why SF are risking with Kittle here, a meaningless game, dude's been out for a while with foot injury, why play him? I don't see him make a difference with Beathard at QB anyway.


edit; CARDINALS WYD 


Does anyone know what's the exact NFL protocol for covid violations? Broncos were left high and dry not allowed to have any QBs vs. Saints a couple of weeks ago, and this dude has been practicing through the week and likely to start on Saturday (less than a week), i mean what is that?

I ended up putting in a bet on Cardinals ML for 1.43x. I'm also looking at Carolina vs. Washington. If Alex Smith comes back then I would take Was. -1, but I don't really care for this Haskins guy. Went out celebrating at a strip club after his last performance, got fined $40k, wasn't even wearing a mask. The worst part of it was he had lost that day's game.

https://nypost.com/2020/12/24/dwayne-haskins-may-be-washingtons-starter-despite-stripper-party/

^This.

If you look at it as another form of entertainment, you won't be disappointed.  Some folks are able to consistently make enough money to earn a living, but I would guess that requires a lot of time for research and a lot of discipline.  I find myself lacking both.  I'll be happy if I break even by the end of the season.

I just went through my history on the sportsbook I use, and I'm 5 out of 25...  20%.  Currently I'm up 4mBTC on the season, micro-betting on EPL and NFL games.  Before the win I had on Monday night I was net even with the sportsbook.  I had to go out-of-pocket to bet on the Bengals. 

Anyway to answer ChiBitCTy's question directly, I prefer to place bets just before the game or during play.  With the NFL specifically there so many intangibles that can affect play, that I find it easier to make predictions during play.  I only do that if the game is broadcast in my local market, and I can watch it live.  Read above and you'll know why this is NOT financial advice.