I think the most interesting game is Raiders / Dolphins but its hard to see an obvious bet on the line or game, for that matter. On one hand, Tagovailoa is young and inexperienced and may feel overwhelmed with pressure as playoffs near. On the other hand, Dolphins cover the spread 28.6% more of the time than the Raiders.
Whether Carr or Mariota starts, Raiders are perfectly capable of winning this one, which is why I'm just gonna sit this one out.
If Mariota starts, I'm going to wager a small amount on the Raiders. Carr's a good enough quarterback, but they don't use him in the run-option the way Gruden uses Mariota. Strange really, because I don't think Carr is incapable of running the ball like Mariota. But Mariota throws a wildcard onto the field, and that may be enough of an edge to win this one. The Dolphins however, are in control of their destiny, if they can win out they'll get a slot. The Raiders hopes aren't dead yet, they also need to win but they need Baltimore to lose twice and Miami to lose next week as well. Baltimore has NYG and the Bengals coming up, soooo... Yeah.
Arizona / SF also looks like it could be a good game as the Cardinals would like to win this one to keep playoff hopes alive, and SF could basically care less (relatively speaking). Both teams only have 1 win a piece since Nov. 1st. SF has a ton of injuries, including QB Mullens who was just ruled out for the season yesterday, meaning Beathard will start.
Bethard will come out and play like a mad-man... For two possessions.
Yes, morvillz7z had ML bets, but iirc there was some discussion earlier as well, that you better not place any bets on teams out of PO contention, because they will go for better draft position etc.. And even in sports betting in general you have often hear this reasoning of teams having nothing to play for. But these are all pro athletes and despite them earning big money, they want to win, they want to compete* And it's easier to perform, when no one expects anything from you anyway.
Football being such a tough sport I think there are probably other factors at play here, and might even be more significant that playoff motivation and whatnot. More injuries at the end of the season for example - higher-ranked teams might be more affected. Divisional games vs games with less-acquainted teams. Cold weather.
I'm a blooming newb when it comes to sports betting so I may be off kilter here, but I think applying this standard of gambling logic to football could be misleading. Football players are wired differently. They're not just athletes, they're gladiators. They have a chip on their shoulder, they're always out to prove something. They seem to get themselves worked up and motivate to an extent that few team-sport players seem to achieve. I don't think I've ever seen a team or a coach give up on a season just to secure the first round draft pick. More accurately would be assume that any team with a losing record would love to spoil the record of a high-flying winning team, they look at it like it's their playoff game. Always something to prove.
I know I said I was gonna sit-out the Monday night game, but sometime during the second quarter I lost my ability to resist.
Thank you Bengals! Back in black, baby!
The Steelers are now my favorite team to bet against. I really think they're going to drop 5 in a row to finish the season. They've got the Colts this weekend, and the Browns next. I'm looking forward to watching both of these games, they should be a lot of fun.
The other game that's slated to be a lot of fun this weekend; Tennessee at Green Bay. I won't make the call on this one until the game is underway, but the bookies are giving the Packers the advantage. The Pack is locked into the playoffs, but they still want the top seed and the first-round bye. Right now it's theirs to lose.
BTW, ESPN's playoff machine is full swing. Here's my prediction for Wild-Card weekend: