Topic: The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy - page 25. (Read 13245 times)

Although there are a couple of cases of increased tensions in oil rich regions to worry about that could lead to big price spikes like the ongoing Saudi invasion of Yemen, but the supply and demand of oil seems to be currently at equilibrium so we shouldn't expect any major changes in the price. There were even a couple of tensions that had the potential of causing a spike over the past weeks but they only led to about 2-3% increase.
So I think for the time being the price stability is solid.

The price of the oil is been ranging between $70-$80 in these past weeks, there is also a high possibility that it may go over $80 because we are currently in Winter Season where we consume more gas and oil to generate electricity. According to the news that I watched, most of the Nations in Europe have enough gas supply that may use until this spring. Even though the oil supply that has been cut off because of the Nord Stream pipeline incident, a lot of countries are already been created a solution for it where they already find a short-term supply for their oil reserve and natural gas.

There is also a big effect of the current war in the Asia wherein the price of the cooking oil here is still high, my uncle has a manufacturing business of noodles where he keeps worrying for the price of the raw materials because they are not making any profit because of the Russia and Ukraine War.

FWIW if HIMARS was used you can't technically call it "pinpoint" strike because HIMARS is a rocket launcher and rockets by definition have lower accuracy since they are not exactly "guided" like missiles and pinpoint accuracy is a much higher accuracy that rockets can not have by design.

Well.. this is strange, because actually the crude oil price has remained at a level that we had 12 months back (except for a brief period, when the prices spiked to $120 per barrel). Gas has become more costly and there is no doubt about it. But that has a lot to do with the NATO bombing the Nord Stream pipeline. Coal has also gone up, but not as much as natural gas.

The real impact is being felt on some of the other commodities such as Potash fertilizer, Ammonia, Wheat, Barley, Sunflower oil and Steel. In India, the sunflower oil prices have gone up by 30%-40% during the last few months, since most of it is being imported from Russia and Ukraine. On top of that, the local currency has also gone down against USD, further exacerbating the inflation.

we use to import wheat from Ukraine and Oil from Russia - after the war both countries have partially ended their operations with our official and the inflation is at he peak main due to oil prices - and so on an so forth every country is upset because petrol prices are higher  and it make other things more costly than befoe

Russia, as always, hides the numbers of its occupiers killed in the Ukrainian town of Makeyevka and what event contributed to such a large number of victims among the Russian military. The Russian command gathered people there to watch the New Year's communication of their President Putin. HIMARS strikes were made in the last three minutes of the outgoing year. It turned out to be a good congratulation from the Armed Forces of Ukraine for uninvited guests who came to a neighboring country to kill their inhabitants.
But the Armed Forces of Ukraine inflict pinpoint strikes on concentrations of enemy troops and equipment every day. On January 14, Putin was given the number of dead and missing in the war in Ukraine: there are already more than 160 thousand people. Of these, the regular army of Russia lost 115,223 military personnel, private military companies 28,163, and the National Guard - 6,089 people.

Some news from "a great country with a stable economy, which is not affected by sanctions in any way"

- Mishustin instructed to cover the costs of the war in Ukraine by reducing the cost of medicine with education as well as the introduction of a one-time fee (author's note - yes, like the mobilization which has ended and will no longer exist, but the agendas have been printed and distributed already) for fertilizer and coal producers , according to Bloomberg, which had at its disposal the corresponding order of Deputy Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, given to officials in December 2022.

- Russia enters the new year with the most "fabulous" budget in 20 years - almost no one believes in its execution. Oil and gas revenues are falling, public debt is growing, the reserves that were so shaken during the pandemic are running out. This time, not only ordinary Russians will suffer, but also oligarchs - billionaires will become the main sponsors of military spending. The Kremlin does not spare money for the war, spending on the security forces will grow by as much as 50%, but on healthcare and housing and communal services they will be reduced. Experts believe that the state will have to raise taxes again, and the ruble will continue to decline, which in the long run will lead to higher prices.

- Military spending in 2023 and future years will have to be covered by Russia's main money-box, the National Welfare Fund (NWF).
The government was reluctant to spend the NWF money even in the covid 2020-2021 years, when businesses were waiting for help from the state. But no one is embarrassed to spend on war: by the end of the year (2022), according to the Ministry of Finance, the volume of the fund has decreased from 13.5 trillion rubles to 8.99 trillion rubles.

- Germany from January 1, 2023 COMPLETELY refused oil, gas and coal from the country of terror-Russia! This market is lost to Russia FOREVER !!!

US is both being hurt and benefiting from this conflict at the same time since a lot of things didn't go according to the plan. The best case scenario for US would have been to decrease energy prices so that they don't enter recession themselves but failed to do so which is why the US economy is hurting too even though they reduce its effects by dumping it all on EU. Which is proof that US has no allies, only other countries that they use.

As for the benefit, it is two part. First is destabilizing the world and weakening Russia while US itself is not losing troops since they are fighting Russians through a proxy. And second is their failing military industry that had lost a gigantic portion of the global weapon sales over the past couple of years. When they started the proxy war with Russia, they regained all of that lost profit and more by increasing their prices up to 12 times in some cases and increase the amount of garbage they sell to other countries.

Every war has an impact towards Global Economy so I think only the scale of the war makes the impact bigger or smaller vs global economy. However, the world have been in wars since inception and every zone or every continent has it's conflict zones and I don't think any of them will end anytime soon. It's sad to see people waging war on each other but on the same time , this conflicts have been here hundreds of years before us and most likely they will continue to exist in the next hundreds years.

The impact ? we most likely started to feel it in summer of 2022 and we will keep feeling the impact until 2025 in my opinion as we are yet to see the real impact upon the Global Economy. Will Bitcoin and cryptos be affected by this ? this time they will , because I don't see Bitcoin having a bull run anytime soon because of this global recession that is slowly happening.

in my view, without the sanctions sent by the west to Russia, the economy will recover faster, the global distribution chain does not always go through and originate from Ukraine, so it makes no sense to see the Russo-Ukrainian war as the cause.

this is all the result of Egoism- apologia of the West - Nato who feels rivaled for hegemony and its great influence in the world by Russia and as if Ukraine is part of those who are bound to be protected, what spreads hostility is the West - Nato towards Russia, the decline in the world economy is an act and it's their own fault but it's the responsibility of all of us, so in fact the source of the problem is only the prestige of the European Union and the US.

The introduction of CBDC in theory is very beneficial for an authoritarian state.  The CBDC system allows you to fully control all cash flows of citizens and commercial organizations. 

Also, the CBDC system can potentially completely destroy corruption in the state.  Without cash, it is impossible to give bribes and finance terrorism.  CBDC can function especially effectively in a planned economy (modeled after the late USSR and the modern People's Republic of China). 

However, one must take into account that the United States has historically been a democratic, not a totalitarian country.  The financing of lobbying is permitted by US law, so the fight against corruption is not of paramount importance for this country. 

The CBDC system in the US has ideological opponents that hinder the implementation of this financial system.

Finally the Dutch TTF prices have stabilized at 3 digits. Currently natural gas is being traded at $749 per thousand cubic meters, which is almost 75% lower than the peak levels that were reached a few months ago. Weather in the European Union has remained relatively warm, with some of the cities recording record winter temperatures. Closure of many of the heavy industries, that consumed natural gas also helped to reduce the demand. BTW, the Brent crude prices are also down, and now trading at $79.46 per barrel. This is mostly due to COVID pandemic in China and not due to the Russo-Ukraine war.

According to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the number of those mobilized from Russia in the barracks of the school in Makeevka on New Year's Eve is about 400 killed and 300 wounded. From the impact of four HIMARS, not even the walls remained. According to information, the invaders were driven there to watch Putin's New Year's greetings. At the same time, they received good congratulations from the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

However, on the morning of January 5, the baton of Makiivka was intercepted by Gavrilovka II of the Kherson region, where the Ukrainian army conveyed fiery greetings to another thousand invaders. The situation is almost the same. Over the past five days, the Russian military has been concentrating forces to Gavrilovka Vtoroy of the Kalanchaksky district of the Kherson region and they have settled in the hostel of the Tavrida plant in an amount of up to 1,000 people. Grads were left on the territory and were soon to move closer to the front line.
As a result of the strike, the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed 20 officers, at least 100 wounded, more than 800 invaders "disappeared" under the rubble of the building.

Now the entire Russian grouping of troops in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, a hundred kilometers deep, is pressed against the Sea of ​​Azov and is under the fire control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Russia does not want to retreat here, because this is a land corridor to the previously annexed Crimean peninsula, and therefore, on the contrary, it is pulling more "live meat" there. As a result of inept command, the Russians are and will continue to suffer heavy losses, since they will not be able to hold this occupied territory.

The US must be getting some sort of benefit by prolonging the crisis between Russia and Ukraine. If it wanted to end the conflict already, it would've intervened directly without hesitation. Perhaps, the US and its allies are letting Russia continue with the war to help accelerate their plans of a global economic reset. Ever-increasing inflation rates, and a severely-disrupted global supply chain will pave the way towards the introduction of CBDCs. That means the elimination of Fiat in its physical form (paper money) and possibly the elimination of national debt will happen soon. The future is widely unpredictable, so we can only hope for the best. Just my thoughts

In my opinion, the decline in the global economy is not directly related to the war between Russia and Ukraine.  

The fighting on the territory of Ukraine led to a number of catastrophic and a number of negative consequences.  Among the negative consequences - for the majority of the inhabitants of planet Earth, the decline in the global economy will now be associated with Russia's military actions in Ukraine.  However, there is no direct connection between these two events.... 

The main problem in the global economy is the lack of new markets.  

In addition, modern economic institutions are absolutely inadequate to the existing reality.

The recession is caused by the huge rise in energy prices which is only partially because of Russian sanctions. There are a lot of other reasons that led to these recession that includes the incompetence of governments in keeping the economy healthy specially after the pandemic started and they decided to print enormous amount of money out of thin air!

I don't think we can see any major war between military superpowers in the world. The only possibility is more proxy wars like Ukraine vs Russia, Taiwan vs China or Azerbaijan/Saudi vs Iran. And of course more cold wars.
Any direct war between these superpowers and NATO would escalate into a global nuclear war that could lead to extinction of human race.

It was a big blunder to house hundreds of reserve troops next to a large ammunition dump in Makiivka. The location was targeted by HIMARS, but most of the deaths resulted from the subsequent explosion of the ammunition dump. And as usual, Russia sent dozens of drones to Ukrainian cities immediately after the attack. The official death toll is 89, but some are claiming that up to 500 soldiers died in Makiivka. As usual, the army has blamed phone usage among the soldiers as the cause, rather than punishing the generals who housed the troops in such vulnerable accommodation.

The recession is closely related to the war between Russia and Ukraine, we know that the war has disrupted economic stability and the supply of other needs in the west, especially in Europe and America which are also very dependent on these two countries, yes I have also read about China's decline, this is the most The impact is that the Covid outbreak has not ended in that country and China's economic cold war with America is still continuing.
If the Global Recession really happened and made these 3 big economies collapse, could it possibly cause another war to fight over natural wealth from other countries to make ends meet?

The recent statements by the IMF managing director Georgieva paints a bad picture for the world economy in 2023. She claims one third of the world economy is facing recession. "tougher than the year we leave behind, because the three big economies – the US, EU and China – are all slowing down simultaneously," she said.

We should watch China closely, their economy is affected by the recent outbreak of Covid and it is expected to slow down if things get worse. The impact of that on the global economy is going to be massive specially since China is also in an economic war with the West.

Interestingly enough despite majority of economy experts claiming that US economy entered a recession in summer of 2022 and will face recession in 2023, she claims the opposite.

Russian defence ministry claims that 63 Russian Soldiers are killed in Ukraine attack on facility in Donetsk. Attacks reportedly happened minutes into the new year in Makeevka in Russian controlled part of the Donetsk.