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Topic: The UFC Info and Prediction Thread - page 11. (Read 96818 times)

legendary
Activity: 2436
Merit: 1561
October 11, 2024, 03:49:46 PM
What is EV? I am dumb and under EV I know only Electric Vehicle Grin

Expected Value

In simple terms in relation to betting:
If you bet $10 on a coin flip, and the profit for the win is only $5 - that's a negative EV
If you bet $10 and get $10 profit if you win - that's a neutral EV
If you bet $10 and the profit for the win is $15 - that's a positive EV.

In other words, you could see a positive EV when you believe a fighter's chance of winning is higher than the bookies' estimation.
hero member
Activity: 2800
Merit: 595
https://www.betcoin.ag
October 11, 2024, 11:12:46 AM
tokeweed, you will like this, as I remember you follow Dana White Contender series.

We remember that UFC have signed Pereira from kickboxing to UFC to make a good competition for Izzy. There is a guy Artem Vakhitov, who recently won in uncle Danas series and was signed to UFC. This guy is known for loosing Pereira only by split decision and winning him by majority when they met in kickboxing. Moreover, Pereira asked UFC to sign this guy (but that is Russians media info, so that isnt 100% clear). Artem is still raw for mma, but with time, I think they will build a nice match-up for Pereira.

This is not the first guy Dana brought someone who is also from Kickboxing who defeated Pereira. The previous one failed. Seem like they are trying to make a career out of Pereira just like the girls who launched their Onlyfans pages after accusing Pereira of rape. That's how popular the guy is.  Grin

If they are to bring someone who will defeat Pereira, it's Anka, but he really has to wrestle or end up flat like the rest.

Talking about a drama series, The CAGE  (The new Netflix Show Starring GSP and JonJones)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4gz6Kwpotw
legendary
Activity: 3976
Merit: 1421
Life, Love and Laughter...
October 11, 2024, 06:36:29 AM
What is EV? I am dumb and under EV I know only Electric Vehicle Grin

About Topuria and Holloway. Do you think Topuria is going to make it as easy as against Volk? Could Topuria KO Max, who has never been knocked out in his career? Btw, I have recently read, that Max either never do sparring in his training (hard to believe), or never spar during camp (which might be more true, but also logical and illogical).

EV means Expected Value...  It's a term from poker, or at least it's where I learned about it, which could also be applied in sports betting as it also deals with probabilities.  On top of my head, the best way to explain a '+EV' bet in MMA is when the odds being given on a particular fighter is too wide than what might be based on how you think the match is gonna play out.  So with Royval, we know he's the better striker, a decent grappler, has good cardio and has fought really good guys.  Taira is young, a bit inexperienced and with his record, does he really deserve where he's lined at rn based in what we know?

So you have to think in a vacuum, if Royval and Taira fought 10 times, how many matches would Royval win?  With his current line at 3.20, it says he's around 31% to win the fight...  Do you really think Royval would win just 3 out of 10?  I'm not sure what you think but I think it's prolly closer to 5 out of 10 which should make the line closer to a pick'em.  But at 3.20?  I think that's total value.

But then again, Taira could take Royval's back, SUB him, and make it look like Royval is sht.  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Experience of upsets, when underdogs wins or in a close fight someone throws a real surprise (like Edwards threw a highkick to Usman in fifth round or Volkov vs Lewis last seconds of last round KO) taught me that mathematics did not work with MMA Cheesy And hard to make those imaginary 10 fights, without knowing full fighting background of both fighters Cheesy Its like 3/10 or 5/10 but with huge pinch on random Cheesy Anyway, I will choose Taira as I want to see more younger guys in flyweight. The older is the fighter, the slowest he is in such weight division.

Yeah maybe match doesn't work in MMA but that's just the way it is in gambling in general. It's pushing small edges to be a long term winner...  That's if you're taking this stuff seriously.  I used to take poker as a serious hobby so EV came in handy.  But for sports betting UFC, F1 and football, not so much.  I just bet small to so I could watch with more interest.

Anyway, weigh ins in 4 hours or so.

UFC Fight Night:  Royval vs. Taira Official Weigh In
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igkN90yAiuo

And I found this in UFC Brasil channel at YT...  This is fight of the year.  IMHO.

UFC Free Fight:  Holloway vs Gaethje
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SL9-irr3a0Y
legendary
Activity: 2478
Merit: 1492
October 11, 2024, 01:49:46 AM
tokeweed, you will like this, as I remember you follow Dana White Contender series.

We remember that UFC have signed Pereira from kickboxing to UFC to make a good competition for Izzy. There is a guy Artem Vakhitov, who recently won in uncle Danas series and was signed to UFC. This guy is known for loosing Pereira only by split decision and winning him by majority when they met in kickboxing. Moreover, Pereira asked UFC to sign this guy (but that is Russians media info, so that isnt 100% clear). Artem is still raw for mma, but with time, I think they will build a nice match-up for Pereira.
legendary
Activity: 2478
Merit: 1492
October 10, 2024, 05:46:59 AM
What is EV? I am dumb and under EV I know only Electric Vehicle Grin

About Topuria and Holloway. Do you think Topuria is going to make it as easy as against Volk? Could Topuria KO Max, who has never been knocked out in his career? Btw, I have recently read, that Max either never do sparring in his training (hard to believe), or never spar during camp (which might be more true, but also logical and illogical).

EV means Expected Value...  It's a term from poker, or at least it's where I learned about it, which could also be applied in sports betting as it also deals with probabilities.  On top of my head, the best way to explain a '+EV' bet in MMA is when the odds being given on a particular fighter is too wide than what might be based on how you think the match is gonna play out.  So with Royval, we know he's the better striker, a decent grappler, has good cardio and has fought really good guys.  Taira is young, a bit inexperienced and with his record, does he really deserve where he's lined at rn based in what we know?

So you have to think in a vacuum, if Royval and Taira fought 10 times, how many matches would Royval win?  With his current line at 3.20, it says he's around 31% to win the fight...  Do you really think Royval would win just 3 out of 10?  I'm not sure what you think but I think it's prolly closer to 5 out of 10 which should make the line closer to a pick'em.  But at 3.20?  I think that's total value.

But then again, Taira could take Royval's back, SUB him, and make it look like Royval is sht.  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Experience of upsets, when underdogs wins or in a close fight someone throws a real surprise (like Edwards threw a highkick to Usman in fifth round or Volkov vs Lewis last seconds of last round KO) taught me that mathematics did not work with MMA Cheesy And hard to make those imaginary 10 fights, without knowing full fighting background of both fighters Cheesy Its like 3/10 or 5/10 but with huge pinch on random Cheesy Anyway, I will choose Taira as I want to see more younger guys in flyweight. The older is the fighter, the slowest he is in such weight division.
legendary
Activity: 3976
Merit: 1421
Life, Love and Laughter...
October 10, 2024, 04:01:56 AM
What is EV? I am dumb and under EV I know only Electric Vehicle Grin

About Topuria and Holloway. Do you think Topuria is going to make it as easy as against Volk? Could Topuria KO Max, who has never been knocked out in his career? Btw, I have recently read, that Max either never do sparring in his training (hard to believe), or never spar during camp (which might be more true, but also logical and illogical).

EV means Expected Value...  It's a term from poker, or at least it's where I learned about it, which could also be applied in sports betting as it also deals with probabilities.  On top of my head, the best way to explain a '+EV' bet in MMA is when the odds being given on a particular fighter is too wide than what might be based on how you think the match is gonna play out.  So with Royval, we know he's the better striker, a decent grappler, has good cardio and has fought really good guys.  Taira is young, a bit inexperienced and with his record, does he really deserve where he's lined at rn based in what we know?

So you have to think in a vacuum, if Royval and Taira fought 10 times, how many matches would Royval win?  With his current line at 3.20, it says he's around 31% to win the fight...  Do you really think Royval would win just 3 out of 10?  I'm not sure what you think but I think it's prolly closer to 5 out of 10 which should make the line closer to a pick'em.  But at 3.20?  I think that's total value.

But then again, Taira could take Royval's back, SUB him, and make it look like Royval is sht.  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 115
October 09, 2024, 12:58:43 PM
Alex Pereira remains the king of UFC light heavyweight division!
Rountree was holding good for first few rounds, but fight finished like I expected and it was finished in fourth round.
Next fight for Pereira could be against winner of  Ankalaev vs Rakic, or Prochazka, but I really want to see him against Jon Jones after that.

Perreria will move up to heavyweight, I don't know when that will be.
There are still a few fighters left at light heavyweight who need to fight. If he moves up to heavyweight, I really want a Jon Jones fight. Smiley
Khalil Roundtree was respected by many people because he was durable but after the 3rd round his conditioning was gone.

You should put a link to that statement for Alex Pereira getting into the heavyweight I would like to see him in that Division but for now, I would like to see him fight a wrestler like Magomed Ankalaev preparing to go against Jon Jones for sure that will be a great fight but right now he has said in the article that he is staying at 205 pounds after his fight on UFC 307 and he would really like to be in the Heavyweight someday that is why he is consistently having fights it is to fasten his route to go beyond and because of his age he got no time left he needs to fight more.

https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2024/10/ufc-307-alex-pereira-staying-at-205-pounds-but-heavyweight-one-day-third-title

Did you all know that Alex Pereira's camp revealed that Pereira was not feeling well in the UFC 307 he has multiple health issues he said "I had a fever, I had a bad throat, and a lot of things happened. Also, going back: when I was in Brazil, I hurt my rib. It was an injury that I had about a year ago, and it came back, so that was also something that I was dealing with" They even said that they are preparing to back out from the fight on UFC 307 so the possibility of having a Julianna Peña VS Raquel Pennington for a main event which is not good at all as that Main Event is a great treat for fans.

https://sports.yahoo.com/alex-pereira-reveals-overcame-multiple-111720442.html#:~:text=I%20had%20a%20fever%2C%20I,my%20throat%20was%20still%20bad.

Which link should I put, I just wrote my own opinion  Grin
I mentioned that there are a lot of fans who want to see him at heavyweight.
Also Ankalev is not a wrestler but a sambo player, that's true. But I think everyone would agree that his matches are boring.
The next card will feature Ankalev and Rakic. I don't think Ankalev will have much trouble.
legendary
Activity: 2478
Merit: 1492
October 09, 2024, 11:45:09 AM
What is EV? I am dumb and under EV I know only Electric Vehicle Grin

About Topuria and Holloway. Do you think Topuria is going to make it as easy as against Volk? Could Topuria KO Max, who has never been knocked out in his career? Btw, I have recently read, that Max either never do sparring in his training (hard to believe), or never spar during camp (which might be more true, but also logical and illogical).
legendary
Activity: 3976
Merit: 1421
Life, Love and Laughter...
October 09, 2024, 07:30:09 AM
What do you mean by "get beat by a vet at the top 5" ? That disrespected by bookies Royval is #1 of flyweight and beat former champ in his last fight Cheesy Bookies see him as an underdog probably due to Taira having 16-0 Cheesy But, most of those 16 wins are against so-so opponents. Royval seems to have a much stronger opponents in his career.

P.S. Another filler event. Another chance for Dana to visit Vegas and gamble Cheesy

Yeah total disrespect because if Royval is gonna make it a close match and with the line he's right now, that would be a +EV value bet in hindsight.  If so, then in a vacuum, the right move for this match up is a straight up bet on Royval everytime...  But let's see what's gonna happen this weekend.  Taira could make it look easy and we just throw our hands up and say the bookies were right again.  Lol.

Then again, from what I've seen the books get it wrong a lot more in making lines in the UFC than say the EPL.

Just say this vid.  Still can't believe Topuria did Volk like that.  Cheesy Cheesy  I thought Volk was value in that spot.

UFC Free Fight:  Topuria vs Volk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NxTQZq5XMuA
legendary
Activity: 2478
Merit: 1492
October 09, 2024, 05:26:48 AM
My bad. Was reading forum from mobile and probably missed that. Anyway, what I was trying to say, that it wasnt that Rountree happened to be so good and many misjudged him, but Pereira wasnt Pereira in that fight Cheesy I was actually confused a bit when his two sons helped him to walk out the octagon. It looked that they walked out like a family that hugs, but turns out sons helped him to feel balance.

I'd be very surprised if Pereira retires without ever moving to heavyweight.

I would not be surprised, if Aspinall retires as an interim heavyweight champ Cheesy

Have we discussed new Conor McGregor business? Notorious Cigars. The guy had whiskey, now beer and cigars. True athlete starter pack Cheesy The best things that are oriented for better health Cheesy
full member
Activity: 264
Merit: 102
October 09, 2024, 04:58:34 AM

My prediction on this. I reckon that after Jon Jones with his fried chicken legs has fought Stipe Miocic already, the UFC will declare Tom Aspinall as Jon's next opponent. However, only 1 week before this fight, Jon will announce that he has an injury during training. This will force the UFC to declare that the replacement is Alex Pereira. Poatan will certainly be very much happy for this because I predict that this will be his biggest purse from the UFC heheheheeh.

That will be a badass replacement but I think that Jon Jones will not be going to get injured intentionally in his fight against Stipe Miocic for me if Jon Jones fights a much more intimidating fighter like Tom Aspinall that will be the time he will get a UNO reverse card of getting injured for Poetan to replaced him this is a much-awaited fight that he wants but us UFC fans don't like it in my opinion, who here wants this fight to take place?

Well, if there are fans of Stipe Miocic here I surely respect you for getting mad at me but that is what I think with that matter Alex Pereira would surely settle 1st a big fight with Magomed Ankalaev or Jiri Prochazka I really don't like Jamahal Hill to take a spot in getting a title belt anymore.

Social media claim that Pereira had only 3 week camp before UFC 307. Pereiras coach say, that Alex had some serious health issues: that little toes injury continue worry him (as I remember he broke that in a fight against Hill), got ribs injury during camp, twice he had fever and had antibiotics courses, sore throat. Also he had American visa problems. I guess all that describes his unusually weak performance. Btw, it was even discussed with UFC to cancel and postpone the fight.

Yup! I already posted it here I think you have never seen it, but that is what his camp has said and I think he also has included it in his pre-fight interview we didn't understand what he said but here is the link

https://sports.yahoo.com/alex-pereira-reveals-overcame-multiple-111720442.html#:~:text=I%20had%20a%20fever%2C%20I,my%20throat%20was%20still%20bad.
legendary
Activity: 2478
Merit: 1492
October 09, 2024, 02:50:38 AM
Social media claim that Pereira had only 3 week camp before UFC 307. Pereiras coach say, that Alex had some serious health issues: that little toes injury continue worry him (as I remember he broke that in a fight against Hill), got ribs injury during camp, twice he had fever and had antibiotics courses, sore throat. Also he had American visa problems. I guess all that describes his unusually weak performance. Btw, it was even discussed with UFC to cancel and postpone the fight.
legendary
Activity: 3010
Merit: 1460
October 08, 2024, 11:13:13 PM
Alex Pereira remains the king of UFC light heavyweight division!
Rountree was holding good for first few rounds, but fight finished like I expected and it was finished in fourth round.
Next fight for Pereira could be against winner of  Ankalaev vs Rakic, or Prochazka, but I really want to see him against Jon Jones after that.

Perreria will move up to heavyweight, I don't know when that will be.
There are still a few fighters left at light heavyweight who need to fight. If he moves up to heavyweight, I really want a Jon Jones fight. Smiley
Khalil Roundtree was respected by many people because he was durable but after the 3rd round his conditioning was gone.

My prediction on this. I reckon that after Jon Jones with his fried chicken legs has fought Stipe Miocic already, the UFC will declare Tom Aspinall as Jon's next opponent. However, only 1 week before this fight, Jon will announce that he has an injury during training. This will force the UFC to declare that the replacement is Alex Pereira. Poatan will certainly be very much happy for this because I predict that this will be his biggest purse from the UFC heheheheeh.
legendary
Activity: 2436
Merit: 1561
October 08, 2024, 04:53:14 PM
Imho, that moment when he connected well on Pereira, was not because it was a strategy or that special secret that he was talking about on press conference. Its because Pereira was way to relaxed, unfocused, sleepy. If we compare Pereira year or more ago and now, we see him becoming more media person. If previously he was more shy (or a stone face), more hungry, maybe felt uncomfortable in front of cameras. Then look at him now, he is filming some funny shorts video, living expensive life, more media. And as the world is balanced, then if we see him more in media, then the gym sees him less. He used to be hungry, ready to rip off Izzy head. Now he has got money, fame, and allow himself to give 70-90% of himself in a training and fight. Who he would face next? Ankalaev? Not really a thread, so he can enjoy his life for 4-6 months more, do lazy trading, get a camp where he would only do 100% of he is able, beat Ankalaev, relax and think about retirement, as he is rather old for a being a prime.

Yup, I had the same thought even before the fight. It's like seeing a wild animal slowly getting domesticated, or like watching the Rocky III when he got civilised  Grin
I don't think getting comfortable with media and being active in promoting himself is the key problem. It's more of having his priorities right and keeping that edge and hunger up.

But going into the Heavyweight division might be farfetched for now I think he can manage to do so or maybe getting 3 belts in the UFC might be possible for him.

He definitely has the size for the heavyweight, and moving up the weight division is an old trick te extend fighters career a little bit, as generally the higher the weight class is, the slower the fighters are, and it's easier to maintain power than speed as one gets older.
I'd be very surprised if Pereira retires without ever moving to heavyweight.
full member
Activity: 264
Merit: 102
October 08, 2024, 03:00:19 PM
Alex Pereira remains the king of UFC light heavyweight division!
Rountree was holding good for first few rounds, but fight finished like I expected and it was finished in fourth round.
Next fight for Pereira could be against winner of  Ankalaev vs Rakic, or Prochazka, but I really want to see him against Jon Jones after that.

Perreria will move up to heavyweight, I don't know when that will be.
There are still a few fighters left at light heavyweight who need to fight. If he moves up to heavyweight, I really want a Jon Jones fight. Smiley
Khalil Roundtree was respected by many people because he was durable but after the 3rd round his conditioning was gone.

You should put a link to that statement for Alex Pereira getting into the heavyweight I would like to see him in that Division but for now, I would like to see him fight a wrestler like Magomed Ankalaev preparing to go against Jon Jones for sure that will be a great fight but right now he has said in the article that he is staying at 205 pounds after his fight on UFC 307 and he would really like to be in the Heavyweight someday that is why he is consistently having fights it is to fasten his route to go beyond and because of his age he got no time left he needs to fight more.

https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2024/10/ufc-307-alex-pereira-staying-at-205-pounds-but-heavyweight-one-day-third-title

Did you all know that Alex Pereira's camp revealed that Pereira was not feeling well in the UFC 307 he has multiple health issues he said "I had a fever, I had a bad throat, and a lot of things happened. Also, going back: when I was in Brazil, I hurt my rib. It was an injury that I had about a year ago, and it came back, so that was also something that I was dealing with" They even said that they are preparing to back out from the fight on UFC 307 so the possibility of having a Julianna Peña VS Raquel Pennington for a main event which is not good at all as that Main Event is a great treat for fans.

https://sports.yahoo.com/alex-pereira-reveals-overcame-multiple-111720442.html#:~:text=I%20had%20a%20fever%2C%20I,my%20throat%20was%20still%20bad.
hero member
Activity: 2800
Merit: 595
https://www.betcoin.ag
October 08, 2024, 12:29:00 PM
^  The main event looks like one of those ones when the young, upcoming prospect will get beat by a vet at the top 5.  I'm not really sure why Royval is lined where he currently is but it sure looks like he's disprespected by the books in this spot.

On the mat Taira has the advantage but not by much as Royval is also good on the mat.  On the feet it's Royval all day.

Here are a couple of replays.  Keep in mind that Alex Perez is already damaged goods.

Royval vs Moreno
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bL33gm1_7KU

Taira vs Perez
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kE4cup0PEKw

Royval vs Moreno is an entertaining fight, it is disappointing to see Moreno wasn't successful in giving a KO through that overhead punch. It's only in the later rounds that Moreno stands his ground. This will not happen with Taira, their fight might end early and he only needs Royval's carelessness to submit him.

Taira showed his skills in Perez's fight where he utilized gravity to pull Perez. Idk if he still could do this if he moves to 125 but winning this fight will probably give him a title shot.
legendary
Activity: 2478
Merit: 1492
October 08, 2024, 08:31:06 AM
But Ankalaev not much of a wrestler. 10/18 wins are by KO. His combat sambo as fighting style shows that his striking/wrestling skills are divided into 40/60 proportion when this character was created Cheesy Dont remember also that he wrestle a lot during fights. His stats in UFC card shows that he is more striker. Fight with Ankalaev, compared with other Pereira opponents, could only end differently Cheesy It would end by decision, but not by doctor check-up Cheesy
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 115
October 08, 2024, 07:19:57 AM
Does anyone knows story behind Khalils Rountree broken nose or scan on it? He has got that between his last fight and before UFC 307. It looked that it did not heal till the end, and any punch would open a bloody cut. It was so obvious that one jab would make a huge step forward to doctor stoppage.

Pereiras next opponent would be Ankalaev or someone else? What do you think? Because Dana did not say that Ankalaev will be 100%. He has told that he will be 100% next, if he wins and show "unbelievable performance". To bad that Ankalaev most likely will win, but in a boring manner Cheesy
The next fight should be with Ankalaev, even if there is no next fight, they will face Ankalaev.
Perreria has never fought a strong wrestler before, all of his UFC fights have been on the feet, he never fought on the ground.
There was only one fighter who could shake him on the feet, and that was none other than Adesenya. I think Ankalaev can turn him like a crocodile, this fight will be a good test for Perreria. Smiley
legendary
Activity: 2478
Merit: 1492
October 08, 2024, 07:01:07 AM
What do you mean by "get beat by a vet at the top 5" ? That disrespected by bookies Royval is #1 of flyweight and beat former champ in his last fight Cheesy Bookies see him as an underdog probably due to Taira having 16-0 Cheesy But, most of those 16 wins are against so-so opponents. Royval seems to have a much stronger opponents in his career.

P.S. Another filler event. Another chance for Dana to visit Vegas and gamble Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 3976
Merit: 1421
Life, Love and Laughter...
October 08, 2024, 06:53:11 AM
^  The main event looks like one of those ones when the young, upcoming prospect will get beat by a vet at the top 5.  I'm not really sure why Royval is lined where he currently is but it sure looks like he's disprespected by the books in this spot.

On the mat Taira has the advantage but not by much as Royval is also good on the mat.  On the feet it's Royval all day.

Here are a couple of replays.  Keep in mind that Alex Perez is already damaged goods.

Royval vs Moreno
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bL33gm1_7KU

Taira vs Perez
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kE4cup0PEKw
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