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Topic: The UFC Info and Prediction Thread - page 9. (Read 98679 times)

legendary
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November 16, 2024, 08:12:38 AM
And from the press conference, Jones said that he already told everyone what he thinks of Aspinall and a what he thinks about the UFC matching them up.  It looks like he wants Alex Pereira next.

Lets not forget that Bones was a lightheavy first and he was sort of a forced to gain. Wasnt UFC hyping (just hyping) about Bones vs Ngannou and forced him to gain. Then he won a heavyweight title in his heavyweight debut. Historically, he is still a LH champ, as he did not lost title but vacated it. His fight against Pereira is a perfect for hype. Pereira might become first triple UFC champ, or Bones could become active double champ. And hold it by not fighting anyone for years Cheesy
legendary
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November 16, 2024, 06:30:50 AM
^  Dunno...  But I feel like Jones is gonna drag the match to R5 and finish Miocic there.  Jones to win at R5 is at 17 rn at Stake.

After all the criticism he's facing from the fans for fighting Stipe instead of Aspinal, I'm almost certain he will want the fight to last at least 3 rounds.
Imagine if he were to finish Stipe in the first seconds  - he wouldn't get any praise for that, it would make him look pretty bad. There would be even more backlash for him beating a poor, retired old man who just wanted to earn his last bucks in the industry. It was Jones who pressed hard for this fight to happen, not the UFC.

Meanwhile, Tom posted a video response to Jon:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zFR_ngsnbc

It totally agree with what Aspinall said.  If Jones is really ducking a match up against Aspinall then I think it would be best for Jones to retire.  But then again if Jones is really playing some kind of mind game then Aspinall just took the bait.  What Aspinall should do is just fight whoever is next for him and worry less about Jones.

Anyway, what do you guys think of the Bo Nickal fight going over 1.5 rounds..?  It's at 2.30 right now.  Could be a good value bet as Paul Craig is a vet in the game.  He knows the only way to win the fight is to make it look close and to drag it along to a decision.

Jon didn't say anything when Dana said the winner would fight Tom. I doubt Pereira and him will really fight too so this is his last dance. Dana makes it sound like Jones is active all the time but yep I guess it's a cue that as long as he is active according to Dana, Jones is the GOAT.

2.30 for Bo. They can wrestle together and might struggle to fight the big guy like Craig.


Yeah...  But here's the thing, if Jones doesn't accept the UFC's proposal of him and Aspinall then we know Jones is dead serious.  But if he does accept the match up then we know it's just all mind games from Jones.  So we'll see.  I mean I they go at it and fight but I also wouldn't mind Jones vs Pereira or Aspinall vs Pereira.

Here's the last vid to watch before the event.  GL all you degens.  Grin

UFC 309:  Ceremonial Weigh In
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqVD1PkBXrA
legendary
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November 15, 2024, 05:58:45 PM
Jon didn't say anything when Dana said the winner would fight Tom. I doubt Pereira and him will really fight too so this is his last dance. Dana makes it sound like Jones is active all the time but yep I guess it's a cue that as long as he is active according to Dana, Jones is the GOAT.

There was nothing Jon could've possibly said in that situation. And Dana gave the only answer he could give. If the UFC was to allow Jones to fight anyone else than the interim belt holder and still keep his heavyweight belt, all the belts and rankings would be meaningless.


Apparently, there was some bad blood between Jones and Stipe. Jon blamed Stipe for saying something about his family and he refused to shake his hand during the first face-off. But they shook hands during the ceremonial weigh-in.
hero member
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November 15, 2024, 02:07:01 PM
^  Dunno...  But I feel like Jones is gonna drag the match to R5 and finish Miocic there.  Jones to win at R5 is at 17 rn at Stake.

After all the criticism he's facing from the fans for fighting Stipe instead of Aspinal, I'm almost certain he will want the fight to last at least 3 rounds.
Imagine if he were to finish Stipe in the first seconds  - he wouldn't get any praise for that, it would make him look pretty bad. There would be even more backlash for him beating a poor, retired old man who just wanted to earn his last bucks in the industry. It was Jones who pressed hard for this fight to happen, not the UFC.

Meanwhile, Tom posted a video response to Jon:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zFR_ngsnbc

It totally agree with what Aspinall said.  If Jones is really ducking a match up against Aspinall then I think it would be best for Jones to retire.  But then again if Jones is really playing some kind of mind game then Aspinall just took the bait.  What Aspinall should do is just fight whoever is next for him and worry less about Jones.

Anyway, what do you guys think of the Bo Nickal fight going over 1.5 rounds..?  It's at 2.30 right now.  Could be a good value bet as Paul Craig is a vet in the game.  He knows the only way to win the fight is to make it look close and to drag it along to a decision.

Jon didn't say anything when Dana said the winner would fight Tom. I doubt Pereira and him will really fight too so this is his last dance. Dana makes it sound like Jones is active all the time but yep I guess it's a cue that as long as he is active according to Dana, Jones is the GOAT.

2.30 for Bo. They can wrestle together and might struggle to fight the big guy like Craig.
legendary
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November 15, 2024, 07:09:11 AM
Yeah, that would be a nice bet though. Craig isnt a rug doll for showing wrestling skill, and Bo wasnt that good at striking (and even worse at defence, he is dangerously open). I think Craig has all chances to make the fight longer than first round Cheesy I would even try to carefully look on submission in second or third round bet. Craig should have skills to defence all attacks and not to fall down in first round. Most of Craig losses are either in after first round or <1minutes before first round ends Cheesy Taking into consideration his experience, and bad Bo striking, second round loss or later is a good bet Cheesy

Yeah... I saw the pre fight press conference face offs and it looks like Paul Craig looks like he won't allow himself to be pushed around by Bo Nickal.  But we'll see.  I could be wrong.  Lol.

And from the press conference, Jones said that he already told everyone what he thinks of Aspinall and a what he thinks about the UFC matching them up.  It looks like he wants Alex Pereira next.

Watch the vids here...

UFC 309:  Pre Fight Press Conference
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H54wGhBlTGc

UFC 309:  Jon Jones Media Day
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2BgF1LCqDoM

Official weigh ins in under a couple of hours folks...  Tune in.

UFC 309:  Weigh In Show
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0PgFvd4ySKE
hero member
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November 15, 2024, 06:06:14 AM
Anyway, what do you guys think of the Bo Nickal fight going over 1.5 rounds..?  It's at 2.30 right now.  Could be a good value bet as Paul Craig is a vet in the game.  He knows the only way to win the fight is to make it look close and to drag it along to a decision.
Craig often makes surprises with his unexpected win and this is something to watch out for and is quite worrying when want to take Nickal as favorite, on the other hand Craig has good resilience because several times he looked completely destroyed but still managed to continue his fight.
I would not bet on this fight but it is interesting to see if Nickal with his basic skills as wrestler can get another win like in his previous fights which always ended quickly by submission or KO.
legendary
Activity: 2520
Merit: 1496
November 15, 2024, 03:31:16 AM
Its funny that UFC fights are sometimes so unpredicted, that Bo will knock out Craig with high kick on the first seconds of first round, completely ignoring all logic, his usual behaviour and our predictions and thoughts Cheesy I've been failing with bets due random factor in UFC multiple times already. I make it way to complicated when trying to predict outcome. Sometimes I try to watch and compare behaviour of two guys, previous results, predict something, examine weak and strong points. But during the fight, its boom>knockout>lost bet performed by a wrestler grappler bjj artist against a top striker with stone chin Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 2436
Merit: 1561
November 14, 2024, 01:44:01 PM
(...)  But then again if Jones is really playing some kind of mind game then Aspinall just took the bait.  What Aspinall should do is just fight whoever is next for him and worry less about Jones.

I can't see any bait here. Aspinall is definitely gaining of the whole situation with majority of the fans jumping on his side.
To me, it looks like he was reserved and overly-respectful to Jon, but then said "f that" and went all in into calling him out. Now Jones is in the tough spot - he can retire after beating Stipe but it won't be a nice farewell, he would get a lot of hate from the fans, or he could take the fight with Tom and risk a loss.
BUT, if Jones actually wants to fight Tom and all this is just a way to hype it up, then well-played for him, it works perfectly.

Anyway, what do you guys think of the Bo Nickal fight going over 1.5 rounds..?  It's at 2.30 right now.  Could be a good value bet as Paul Craig is a vet in the game.  He knows the only way to win the fight is to make it look close and to drag it along to a decision.

Craig's master move is triangle choke from the back, and that's the way Bo lost his jiu-jitsu fight with Gordon Ryan, meaning it's possible Nickal could prefer to engage in a striking match (I think he might be slightly better striker than Paul). That, in turn, could make the fight last longer.
I'm not convinced Paul would want to take it to the distance as there's a risk judges would strongly prefer to give it the prospective rising star (if the fight is close). I think he'll be looking for submission instead, but probably it would have to be Bo who takes it to the ground and Craig will be looking to submit him from the defence, like he did plenty of times.
legendary
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Merit: 1496
November 14, 2024, 08:01:25 AM
Yeah, that would be a nice bet though. Craig isnt a rug doll for showing wrestling skill, and Bo wasnt that good at striking (and even worse at defence, he is dangerously open). I think Craig has all chances to make the fight longer than first round Cheesy I would even try to carefully look on submission in second or third round bet. Craig should have skills to defence all attacks and not to fall down in first round. Most of Craig losses are either in after first round or <1minutes before first round ends Cheesy Taking into consideration his experience, and bad Bo striking, second round loss or later is a good bet Cheesy
legendary
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November 14, 2024, 07:01:49 AM
^  Dunno...  But I feel like Jones is gonna drag the match to R5 and finish Miocic there.  Jones to win at R5 is at 17 rn at Stake.

After all the criticism he's facing from the fans for fighting Stipe instead of Aspinal, I'm almost certain he will want the fight to last at least 3 rounds.
Imagine if he were to finish Stipe in the first seconds  - he wouldn't get any praise for that, it would make him look pretty bad. There would be even more backlash for him beating a poor, retired old man who just wanted to earn his last bucks in the industry. It was Jones who pressed hard for this fight to happen, not the UFC.

Meanwhile, Tom posted a video response to Jon:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zFR_ngsnbc

I totally agree with what Aspinall said.  If Jones is really ducking a match up against Aspinall then I think it would be best for Jones to retire.  But then again if Jones is really playing some kind of mind game then Aspinall just took the bait.  What Aspinall should do is just fight whoever is next for him and worry less about Jones.

Anyway, what do you guys think of the Bo Nickal fight going over 1.5 rounds..?  It's at 2.30 right now.  Could be a good value bet as Paul Craig is a vet in the game.  He knows the only way to win the fight is to make it look close and to drag it along to a decision.

Edit:  Typos
legendary
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Merit: 1496
November 14, 2024, 06:14:26 AM
^  Dunno...  But I feel like Jones is gonna drag the match to R5 and finish Miocic there.  Jones to win at R5 is at 17 rn at Stake. 
After all the criticism he's facing from the fans for fighting Stipe instead of Aspinal, I'm almost certain he will want the fight to last at least 3 rounds.

Why do you think that the fight is going to last so long? Put on one part of scales G.O.A.T, and old and almost retired guy, who has said that he is having 24h work shifts. I agree with many, that Miocic will be there only to get a paycheck. And for Bones, why try to make fight last many rounds. There is always a chance of a lucky punch, judges can give warning for low activity, Bones can accidentally injure himself (lol, remember how Ortega injured his feet during warm out jumps before the fight, or Chris Barnett recently did the same on UFC 308).
legendary
Activity: 2436
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November 13, 2024, 05:22:42 PM
^  Dunno...  But I feel like Jones is gonna drag the match to R5 and finish Miocic there.  Jones to win at R5 is at 17 rn at Stake.

After all the criticism he's facing from the fans for fighting Stipe instead of Aspinal, I'm almost certain he will want the fight to last at least 3 rounds.
Imagine if he were to finish Stipe in the first seconds  - he wouldn't get any praise for that, it would make him look pretty bad. There would be even more backlash for him beating a poor, retired old man who just wanted to earn his last bucks in the industry. It was Jones who pressed hard for this fight to happen, not the UFC.

Meanwhile, Tom posted a video response to Jon:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zFR_ngsnbc
legendary
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November 13, 2024, 08:45:47 AM
I deliberately chose the word might in my previous message but I think I should have chosen hopefully for clarity. Anyway, Charles is one of the best in the division and moreover he has one of the most impressive stories in the UFC, the only unlucky thing is that he's in the same division with P4P Islam Makhachev. I think he will get a belt fight after this fight or after a couple of fights, I mean, before he ends his career, I have no doubt about that, but if he loses this fight I think we will be witnessing the end of a legend...
legendary
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November 13, 2024, 07:11:52 AM
^  Dunno...  But I feel like Jones is gonna drag the match to R5 and finish Miocic there.  Jones to win at R5 is at 17 rn at Stake. 

As for other value lines there's Chandler via KO at 4.80...  I was hoping for a decent line at Bo Nickal props but no.  No value everywhere.  Lol.  I also think Araujo vs Silva won't go the distance.  The former has bad cardio and with Silva's skills on the mat, she's gonna catch Araujo with something.  Fight doesn't go the distance is at 2.75, under 2.5 rounds at 2.95.

Still haven't checked the other lines...  Will post here on the spots I like once I do.
legendary
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November 13, 2024, 04:02:54 AM

You're right on the Miocic part. I'll just add (as someone pointed out) that he hasn't fought ANYONE from the current UFC heavyweight roster. All his previous opponents are already retired except Ngannou who moved to the PFL (and beat Stipe badly in their last fight).
I have no doubt that Jon could finish him within the first minute, but he'll probably go easy on him and let him swing a little just to make the fight look more legit.


Bones has finished Gane in 2 minutes, and at that time Gane was fast for his size or heavyweight, good at striking, looked very dangerous at that time. Miocic - old, probably chinny right now, never was considered as good at wrestling (even though he has some wrestling background and purple belt in bjj (actually not so cool)) comes after a huge pause. Imho there is a huge chance that it will all end in first minutes or after first attempt to takedown or to submit.
sr. member
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November 13, 2024, 12:09:05 AM
Guys, have you seen UFC 309 odds ? Cheesy Bones 1.15, Miocic 5.6 Cheesy How often do you see that formed champ has such low odds ?
Even the odds know this isn't a GOAT vs. GOAT fight. Miocic is well past his prime and has a legacy in HW as one of the GOATs, but not the GOAT of this era. Jones knows exactly what he has to do to keep his undefeated record intact and claim to have "beaten" the GOAT at heavyweight. I think anyone would bet for Jones in this fight. It would only be a miracle for Miocic to win.

As for Pereira - the guy is really big and would have no problems finding himself in the heavyweight. And let's not forget Jones also moved up from the LHV. But Jones has a really good wrestling, better than anyone Alex has ever faced, which would give him big advantage.
Yes I agree with you. Pereira is very unique because he has a very large body, maybe he can enter the heavyweight threshold but miraculously can enter the middleweight at the weigh-in. But I doubt whether Pereira can enter the heavyweight class at his natural weight? I mean like Adesanya who competes in the LHW class but I feel like it's "forced". Maybe by increasing the amount of food that is not like the usual portion. The result is he really can't hold back the dominance of Blachowiz which leads to a ground fight. Blachowiz's bigger body weight makes him unable to do anything when wrestling. Dropping weight to a lower division is hard enough, but gaining weight above natural weight is also hard.
legendary
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November 12, 2024, 04:13:55 PM
I agree with you. If Jon Jones insists on fighting Miocic saying that Miocic is the GOAT I think that is bullshit. Miocic is past his prime and he is no longer the Miocic he was when he was the GOAT. Jones knows that and he only picks opponents that he can beat. Fighting Pereira is also bullshit because even though Pereira is one of the greatest fighters in the middleweight division, he can move up to LHW but there is no way he can make weight and move up to HW. Most fighters who try to move up usually can't fight like they did in the main division. Maybe Jones can fight Pereira at LHW but then again I think Jones' best fight before he retires is against Aspinall to prove himself as the heavyweight GOAT or even one of the UFC GOATs.

You're right on the Miocic part. I'll just add (as someone pointed out) that he hasn't fought ANYONE from the current UFC heavyweight roster. All his previous opponents are already retired except Ngannou who moved to the PFL (and beat Stipe badly in their last fight).
I have no doubt that Jon could finish him within the first minute, but he'll probably go easy on him and let him swing a little just to make the fight look more legit.

As for Pereira - the guy is really big and would have no problems finding himself in the heavyweight. And let's not forget Jones also moved up from the LHV. But Jones has a really good wrestling, better than anyone Alex has ever faced, which would give him big advantage.
hero member
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November 12, 2024, 03:54:51 PM
Charles, who has lost his past fight, and a title fight if he wins Chandler, who has lost his previous fight also and was on a pause for two years? For me this isnt enough to be rewarded for a title fight. Some guys have 5-10 win streaks before they can have a title fight. However some get a title fight after beating two-three average guys Cheesy I like how Renato Moicano is performing right now. 4 wins, maybe one more win and he would get a title fight, despite those guys who are on top1-5 right now.

Seem usual now in UFC. The reason for Chandler was that he was waiting for the biggest payday of his career to fight Conor. That was really a waste of time for him. For Charles, I guess also sits on his rank after a loss.

But Charles vs Chandler sounds better than the main event they put on a show in their first fight, it deserves another. Both know its not an easy fight, if Chandler can make it to KO Charles, then its time to catch up.
legendary
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November 12, 2024, 10:27:49 AM
Charles, who has lost his past fight, and a title fight if he wins Chandler, who has lost his previous fight also and was on a pause for two years? For me this isnt enough to be rewarded for a title fight. Some guys have 5-10 win streaks before they can have a title fight. However some get a title fight after beating two-three average guys Cheesy I like how Renato Moicano is performing right now. 4 wins, maybe one more win and he would get a title fight, despite those guys who are on top1-5 right now.
legendary
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November 12, 2024, 09:51:50 AM
UFC 309



Date: November 17, 2024

Early Prelims: Sun, Nov 17 / 1:00 AM GMT+2
Preliminary Card: Sun, Nov 17 / 3:00 AM GMT+2
Main Card: Sun, Nov 17 / 5:00 AM GMT+2

Venue: Madison Square Garden

Main card (ESPN)
Heavyweight: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic
Lightweight: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler            
Women's Flyweight: Viviane Araújo vs. Karine Silva            
Middleweight: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig            
Lightweight: Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop      

Preliminary card (ESPN)
Bantamweight: Jonathan Martinez vs. Marcus McGhee            
Middleweight: Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders            
Lightweight: Jim Miller vs. Damon Jackson   

Early preliminary card (ESPN+ / UFC Fight Pass)
Heavyweight: Marcin Tybura vs. Jhonata Diniz            
Welterweight: Mickey Gall vs. Ramiz Brahimaj            
Welterweight: Bassil Hafez vs. Oban Elliot            
Women's Flyweight: Veronica Hardy vs. Eduarda Moura   

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_309


Bones is running away from Aspinall and his statements to the press make his escape even more comical. Jones said that I don't want to fight Aspinal because I don't think he will add anything to my legacy... :)

I see Charles Oliveira's fight as the more important fight at this event. If Charles Oliveira wins this fight, he might get a belt match, but if he loses this fight, we could see a legend slowly fade away. He has done it before.

"The champ has a name"
https://www.tiktok.com/@cago.mma/video/7400389123007155464
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