The UFC Info and Prediction Thread - page 8.

Hirose UK

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Quote from: tokeweed on October 21, 2024, 06:38:28 AM

Quote from: Hirose UK on October 19, 2024, 09:56:31 PM

Quote from: tokeweed on October 19, 2024, 06:16:26 AM

~snip~

Previously Michel Pereira had pretty good 8-win streak but on the other hand Anthony Hernandez also had 5-win streak, Michel Pereira advantage lies in his experience and his strong kicks and locks.
Hernandez who has background in Muay Thai and wrestling can have longer endurance with more guaranteed power performance, but I predict Michel Pereira can win by KO even though in the end it all ended with an unexpected surprise where Hernandez got the win by KO.
This was really unexpected and Michel Pereira had to accept defeat after series of wins that he had achieved.

But was it all 'unexpected' tho..? If you watched the match, it ended in one of the possibilities we discussed. That if Hernandez could take Pereira down then Pereira will be in all kinds of trouble. Hernandez could win via SUB or ground and pound him to oblivion... And he did and won via ground and pound. The guy is no joke.

Yeah I saw it and it was really unexpected, just look at Pereira putting some pressure in some punch combinations and also knees to Hernandez body but anyway in the 3rd round Hernandez indeed gave several dings which were followed by submission attempts and ground and pound, this was quite surprising because it looked like Pereira was really helpless.
You are right that Hernandez was not playing around and he was on top of Pereira with some pretty hard elbows to the face causing the fight to be stopped it was an embarrassing defeat for Pereira.

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Quote from: TopTort777 on October 25, 2024, 01:05:31 AM

Here is a nice motivational Friday video for you guys: https://www.tiktok.com/@ufc/video/7429359862032715039?_t=8qoid86cysj&_r=1

This is how the start is born. This is what follow to your dream looks like. The guy flew to UFC, found Dana attention and asked for a contract. https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/fighters/174724-dorobshokh-nabotov This is this guys profile. There is a continuation of this story. Chan Sung Jung (Korean Zombie) is organizing contender series for UFC in Korea on YouTube. Dana made this Nabotov have a fight there, and if wins, he will get UFC contract. Hope that Nabotovs dream finally comes true.

That was Mokaev in disguise Grin

But seriously, if that guy makes it, we'll see multiple guys like that begging for contracts in every press conference.

Quote from: tokeweed on October 25, 2024, 07:24:38 AM

It's the wrestling that matters imho. If Topuria takes down Holloway from the first round to the last and actually controls him on the ground then it's gonna be hell for Holloway. But Holloway has good TD defense, but then again that stat is because he hasn't fought that many pure wrestlers. So we'll see...

If Topuria's strategy is to take it to the ground, it'll be just a matter of time. Max won't be able to defend all the takedowns. Topuria looked really impressive against Bryce Mitchell, who then was 15-0 and was known for his good wrestling and submission skills, but got rag-dolled and submitted by Ilia. I don't expect Max to do much better on the ground.

The problem is that Topuria keeps announcing he will go into a striking exchange with Max and KO him. It could be a bluff rather than an actual strategy, but who knows.

TopTort777

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Better consider betting starting from "Topuria wont KO Holloway" kind of prediction Cheesy

He will either win by submission, or by points. I would give a 60% probability that such thing will happen, 30% that Max will win by points, and 10% that it will be one punch KO like against Gaethji Cheesy

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Quote from: TopTort777 on October 24, 2024, 08:19:45 AM

But Ortega is super-duper-cool in bjj. Ortegas bjj > Topurias bjj Cheesy

But fortune telling and math does not work for mma Cheesy

Anyway, my gaze will be riveted to Whittaker vs Chimaev and Ankalaev vs Rakic fights more than to main event. First of all, this is another great test for Chimaev who promised to KILLEVIRIBADI! Because there are lots of theories in media appears, that he fights only in UEA because sheiks helps him to win, and drops the fight as soon as a decent opponent appears. And Ankalaev vs Rakis will decide the future of Ankalaev. Will there be another title fight (and a loss:D) against Pereira, or he will be always second after the king Cheesy

It's the wrestling that matters imho. If Topuria takes down Holloway from the first round to the last and actually controls him on the ground then it's gonna be hell for Holloway. But Holloway has good TD defense, but then again that stat is because he hasn't fought that many pure wrestlers. So we'll see...

And for those guys who think Holloway is gonna finish Topuria, I'm not saying it can't happen.. Just saying it's hard. But if he does it, it will prolly be in R4 or R5 as Holloway likes to start slow then he builds up momentum as the fight goes. Holloway to win at R4 is at 28.00 and at R5 is at 35.00... I might put 10 bucks at each of those. Grin

Live weigh ins started 4 hours ago? Wtf... Early.

UFC 308: Live Weigh In
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klPof2UFEWs

Ceremonial weigh ins in 90 mins or so...

UFC 308: Ceremonial Weigh In
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mqp_AYbdOUY

Synchronice

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Quote from: TopTort777 on October 24, 2024, 06:46:18 AM

The way I see current situation. Topuria surprised everyone when he knocked out Volk and got his first p4p level skull. Many expected him to win, probably by decision. But that is only one huge win, and people now talk like he one of the best strikers and speculate how he is going knock out his next opponent. Imho people lover level of Holloway and have to high expectations from Topuria performance.

I dont agree with "Topuria x1.37 vs Holloway x3.10" odds. Max is to much of an underdog here. That 3+ means he has no chances. Look at Topuria opponents, and Max. Max hasnt been knocked out by prime Poirier, Volk. Oliveira did not choke him, Ortega failed to do that either. That x3.10 truly looks like a mistype of x2.10 Cheesy

And extra +1 is sort of an early Xmas present.

Volk shouldn't have taken fight against Islam the second time because he was very unprepared and he was also unprepared against Topuria because this fight was also scheduled very soon for him. He lost 2 fights for his stupid decision and I believe these two loses significantly affected him mentally.

I also think that "Topuria x1.37 vs Holloway x3.10" odds are very unfair. I don't know why bookmakers think that Holloway has such a low chance of winning, that's strange. I will risk today and make a bet on Holloway, I think that I can be lucky and win this bet. To be frank, I think that Topuria has a higher chance of winning in this fight but to my mind, it's 51%-49% (49% for Holloway).

I'll risk and my prediction will be: Holloway wins.

TopTort777

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Here is a nice motivational Friday video for you guys: https://www.tiktok.com/@ufc/video/7429359862032715039?_t=8qoid86cysj&_r=1

This is how the start is born. This is what follow to your dream looks like. The guy flew to UFC, found Dana attention and asked for a contract. https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/fighters/174724-dorobshokh-nabotov This is this guys profile. There is a continuation of this story. Chan Sung Jung (Korean Zombie) is organizing contender series for UFC in Korea on YouTube. Dana made this Nabotov have a fight there, and if wins, he will get UFC contract. Hope that Nabotovs dream finally comes true.

pawel7777

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Quote from: TopTort777 on October 24, 2024, 06:46:18 AM

I dont agree with "Topuria x1.37 vs Holloway x3.10" odds. Max is to much of an underdog here. That 3+ means he has no chances. Look at Topuria opponents, and Max. Max hasnt been knocked out by prime Poirier, Volk. Oliveira did not choke him, Ortega failed to do that either. That x3.10 truly looks like a mistype of x2.10 Cheesy

And extra +1 is sort of an early Xmas present.

There's no doubt Max is a better striker and if Topuria gets dragged into a striking match, he'll most likely lose. But Max hasn't really faced anyone with solid wrestling skills. I suppose Volk would be the closest thing to a wrestler he's encountered. In the UFC 251 Volk managed to shift the win in his favour by taking Max down multiple times quite easily.

Regarding Oliveira and Ortega - both are good in jiu-jitsu and submissions but that style does not emphasise on takedowns like the wrestling does. Plus, Max fought Oliveira in 2015, so that was the weak part of Charles' career when he was losing a lot of fights.

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Quote from: tokeweed on October 24, 2024, 07:30:18 AM

^ It's value for sure but I'm not as confident as the one with Royval vs Taira. And I don't many people thought Topuria could win that match, they prolly were thinking he had a chance tho. It reflected in the odds as Volk was the slight favorite.

Quote from: pawel7777 on October 23, 2024, 05:40:05 PM

Quote from: tokeweed on October 21, 2024, 06:38:28 AM

^ The bookies are giving nice odds for Holloway which is very tempting. If Holloway could keep his distance from Topuria same as Volk did in R1 of their match then Holloway could win with the volume upside.

Yup. The odds for Holloway are more than decent. But I wouldn't put my money on him in that fight. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Max has ever faced a really good grappler before.

He fought Brian Ortega back in 2018... But Ortega doesn't have the kind of wrestling that Topuria has so we can't really compare the two. Again if Holloway doesn't get too near Topuria for most of the time they're in the cage, he could win it.

Press conference is in 12 hours... This gonna be good. Wink

I like Holoway on the mic and there's Chimaev who's cringe and hilarious at the same time. Lolol.

UFC 308: Pre Fight Press Conference
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCr9zKiWUak

What I think Holloway needs is constant head movement. He is fighting a better boxer and what Topuria needs is just to find a way to get closer and hit the right spot. Holloway can utilize his height and reach advantage in this fight, he can lean back and he can already create a huge space between them.

Volk was doing good fighting Topuria until he stopped his head movement. Holloway can avoid getting KO'd by head movement and if he can avoid getting KO'd for several rounds, he'll frustrate Topuria when disappointment in claiming he is the first to KO Holloway sets in.

People are split in this Holloway vs Topuria fight really. This is because Topuria is just too good as well with accuracy and timing.

TopTort777

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But Ortega is super-duper-cool in bjj. Ortegas bjj > Topurias bjj Cheesy

But fortune telling and math does not work for mma Cheesy

Anyway, my gaze will be riveted to Whittaker vs Chimaev and Ankalaev vs Rakic fights more than to main event. First of all, this is another great test for Chimaev who promised to KILLEVIRIBADI! Because there are lots of theories in media appears, that he fights only in UEA because sheiks helps him to win, and drops the fight as soon as a decent opponent appears. And Ankalaev vs Rakis will decide the future of Ankalaev. Will there be another title fight (and a loss:D) against Pereira, or he will be always second after the king Cheesy

tokeweed

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^ It's value for sure but I'm not as confident as the one with Royval vs Taira. And I don't many people thought Topuria could win that match, they prolly were thinking he had a chance tho. It reflected in the odds as Volk was the slight favorite.

Quote from: pawel7777 on October 23, 2024, 05:40:05 PM

Quote from: tokeweed on October 21, 2024, 06:38:28 AM

^ The bookies are giving nice odds for Holloway which is very tempting. If Holloway could keep his distance from Topuria same as Volk did in R1 of their match then Holloway could win with the volume upside.

Yup. The odds for Holloway are more than decent. But I wouldn't put my money on him in that fight. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Max has ever faced a really good grappler before.

He fought Brian Ortega back in 2018... But Ortega doesn't have the kind of wrestling that Topuria has so we can't really compare the two. Again if Holloway doesn't get too near Topuria for most of the time they're in the cage, he could win it.

Press conference is in 12 hours... This gonna be good. Wink

I like Holoway on the mic and there's Chimaev who's cringe and hilarious at the same time. Lolol.

UFC 308: Pre Fight Press Conference
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCr9zKiWUak

TopTort777

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The way I see current situation. Topuria surprised everyone when he knocked out Volk and got his first p4p level skull. Many expected him to win, probably by decision. But that is only one huge win, and people now talk like he one of the best strikers and speculate how he is going knock out his next opponent. Imho people lover level of Holloway and have to high expectations from Topuria performance.

I dont agree with "Topuria x1.37 vs Holloway x3.10" odds. Max is to much of an underdog here. That 3+ means he has no chances. Look at Topuria opponents, and Max. Max hasnt been knocked out by prime Poirier, Volk. Oliveira did not choke him, Ortega failed to do that either. That x3.10 truly looks like a mistype of x2.10 Cheesy

And extra +1 is sort of an early Xmas present.

pawel7777

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Quote from: tokeweed on October 21, 2024, 06:38:28 AM

^ The bookies are giving nice odds for Holloway which is very tempting. If Holloway could keep his distance from Topuria same as Volk did in R1 of their match then Holloway could win with the volume upside.

Yup. The odds for Holloway are more than decent. But I wouldn't put my money on him in that fight. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Max has ever faced a really good grappler before.

Full UFC 308 odds:

Fakhretdinov x1.40 vs Miranda x3.00
Naurdiev x1.60 vs Silva x2.33
Basharat x1.15 vs Hugo Silva x5.50
Nzechukwu x1.14 vs Barnett x5.66
Magomedov x1.70 vs Ferreira x2.16
Rebecki x3.50 vs Orolbay Uulu x1.32
Neal x1.32 vs Dos Anjos x3.40
Aslan x1.96 vs Cerqueira x1.84
Magomedov x1.60 vs Petrosyan x2.36
Murphy x1.37 vs Ige x3.00
Ankalaev x1.27 vs Rakic x3.75
Whittaker x3.10 vs Chimaev x1.40
Topuria x1.37 vs Holloway x3.10

Quote from: TopTort777 on October 22, 2024, 11:49:00 AM

Guys, dont forget, that Topuria has turned into hell of a knockout artist, and his striking skills people have started to discuss only when he has knocked out Volk. Before that, we only knew that he is able to put people down, when he often submit people. On the contrast we have Holloway, who has been known for knocking people and being master of punches for since-I-know-him Cheesy

Just dont overestimate Topuria striking with that Volk knockout. Dont focus only on that achievement. In fact, no one has managed to knock Max out. So why think that Topuria will be first to do that.

I'm almost certain Topuria will try to take it to the ground. He might engage in striking exchange initially, maybe even for the whole round 1 (if Max doesn't get a significant advantage) but will start shooting for takedowns after that.
His wrestling is really good as proved by him outclassing Bryce Mitchell (who is also a very solid wrestler himself). So I can't imagine he'll throw away his biggest advantage and would be content to play Max's game.

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Quote from: cabron on October 22, 2024, 11:18:38 AM

Quote from: tokeweed on October 22, 2024, 07:11:22 AM

Uh if you're really betting on Holloway then there's no need to go on chasing for a better line by riding on the KO prop. His line straight up is good enough... At least that's what I think. Topuria is a tough dude too and hasn't lost a match yet. So how do we really know if Holloway could pull of a KO?

Holloway ducks his way out of the combinations he has the chance. Since Holloway lasted Gaethje's hard punches then I can see he will win by decision if his chin still manages to hold up while Topuria throws 3-4 combi.

We don't really know if he could make it happen but if I am just to bet $5-10, I'd rather be choosing that KO for the thrills especially if Holloway by KO is 5.00. We shall find out if Topuria is still tough against someone more prepared, not on short notice.

What is risky for Holloway is for him to point down the mat again to stay in the middle, this is risky because Tuporia can find a way to hit the right spot on the chin.

Such a bet was on my mind as well.
I definitely wouldn't take that risk with such a big amount of money anyway. 10-20 dollars for Max, KO. Dude, I won't hesitate and will put the bet there as this will increase my excitement even more. Cheesy

I know what a knockout artist Topuria is, I know how he KO'd Volkanovski, after all it's a game, if Max hadn't finished Justin off like that I wouldn't have even taken this bet.

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Quote from: Hanadawa on October 23, 2024, 09:45:56 AM

Quote from: TopTort777 on October 22, 2024, 11:49:00 AM

Guys, dont forget, that Topuria has turned into hell of a knockout artist, and his striking skills people have started to discuss only when he has knocked out Volk. Before that, we only knew that he is able to put people down, when he often submit people. On the contrast we have Holloway, who has been known for knocking people and being master of punches for since-I-know-him Cheesy

Just dont overestimate Topuria striking with that Volk knockout. Dont focus only on that achievement. In fact, no one has managed to knock Max out. So why think that Topuria will be first to do that.

As far as I know no one has ever knocked out Max. Topuria surprisingly knocked out Volk but I don't think he'll be able to do the same thing. Except for submissions, Max has faced many of the best strikers in the UFC and he's never slept. What Volk did was score a lot of points by landing punches that were devastating to Max. I bet Max would have won that fight. Topuria is a great fighter after convincingly beating Volk but it wasn't enough to beat Max. On the other hand I feel like Volk is a different fighter after his loss to Islam in their second fight.

And that was also on short notice to fight Islam. Volk was knocked hard and kicked on his head, which affected him mentally thus the result.

What they see is that Volk won over Max because Max finds it hard to deal with fighters shorter than him but can get close also and throw overhand and Topuria can bring the fight to grappling at the same time. Comparing what Volk did against Max and what Topuria may do can make a bettor thinks Topuria really has the chance. So if Volk can do it, Topuria may also make it.

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Quote from: TopTort777 on October 22, 2024, 11:49:00 AM

Guys, dont forget, that Topuria has turned into hell of a knockout artist, and his striking skills people have started to discuss only when he has knocked out Volk. Before that, we only knew that he is able to put people down, when he often submit people. On the contrast we have Holloway, who has been known for knocking people and being master of punches for since-I-know-him Cheesy

Just dont overestimate Topuria striking with that Volk knockout. Dont focus only on that achievement. In fact, no one has managed to knock Max out. So why think that Topuria will be first to do that.

As far as I know no one has ever knocked out Max. Topuria surprisingly knocked out Volk but I don't think he'll be able to do the same thing. Except for submissions, Max has faced many of the best strikers in the UFC and he's never slept. What Volk did was score a lot of points by landing punches that were devastating to Max. I bet Max would have won that fight. Topuria is a great fighter after convincingly beating Volk but it wasn't enough to beat Max. On the other hand I feel like Volk is a different fighter after his loss to Islam in their second fight.

tokeweed

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^ Yup. Lol. That's I was saying, Holloway's bet course of action is to keep his distance like what Volk did at R1. Volk made a mistake and gave Topuria a chance to get near him and he paid for it. Cheesy

And here's the thing... The weight cut to 145. I know Holloway hasn't had any problems before but could be more taxing for Holloway as he's kinda big for the weight class.

But yeah.. I like the line on Holloway but we'll see. If it goes above 3.50, auto bet Holloway. Grin

Even Ige at 3.10 looks tempting.

Here's the one where Volk got slept.

UFC Free Fight: Volk vs Topuria
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5TIENxxReI

TopTort777

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Guys, dont forget, that Topuria has turned into hell of a knockout artist, and his striking skills people have started to discuss only when he has knocked out Volk. Before that, we only knew that he is able to put people down, when he often submit people. On the contrast we have Holloway, who has been known for knocking people and being master of punches for since-I-know-him Cheesy

Just dont overestimate Topuria striking with that Volk knockout. Dont focus only on that achievement. In fact, no one has managed to knock Max out. So why think that Topuria will be first to do that.

cabron

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Quote from: tokeweed on October 22, 2024, 07:11:22 AM

Uh if you're really betting on Holloway then there's no need to go on chasing for a better line by riding on the KO prop. His line straight up is good enough... At least that's what I think. Topuria is a tough dude too and hasn't lost a match yet. So how do we really know if Holloway could pull of a KO?

Holloway ducks his way out of the combinations he has the chance. Since Holloway lasted Gaethje's hard punches then I can see he will win by decision if his chin still manages to hold up while Topuria throws 3-4 combi.

We don't really know if he could make it happen but if I am just to bet $5-10, I'd rather be choosing that KO for the thrills especially if Holloway by KO is 5.00. We shall find out if Topuria is still tough against someone more prepared, not on short notice.

What is risky for Holloway is for him to point down the mat again to stay in the middle, this is risky because Tuporia can find a way to hit the right spot on the chin.

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Quote from: cabron on October 21, 2024, 12:03:02 PM

Quote from: l99l on October 21, 2024, 10:35:30 AM

Holloway turns on immortality mode when it comes to standing combat. Holloway has a bad record with Volkonovski, so bettors are very likely to turn to Topuria.
I liked this risk, it's clearly a bit high odds and it sounds good because it's Max.
I also like to follow İbo Aslan progress in the UFC, I will bet on him separately, I hope he continues his winning streak.

Holloway is used to fighting tough guys and has never been KO'd but he can also KO Topuria. I think it's also worth taking that 3.15 bet on Holloway. Although Topuria is tough, Holloway could absorb his strikes just as he did with Volk. The odds are still not available, but it must be worth the wait. Holloway by KO might be 5.00.

If bettors leaning on Ilia, him winning by KO would be 2.20. These two are exchanging bible verses, an exciting fight to see.

Uh if you're really betting on Holloway then there's no need to go on chasing for a better line by riding on the KO prop. His line straight up is good enough... At least that's what I think. Topuria is a tough dude too and hasn't lost a match yet. So how do we really know if Holloway could pull of a KO?

Anyway everybody should watch Volk vs Topuria again and closely watch R1. If Holloway doesn't get finished and if he could just keep his distance, as I already said, he could win this one on volume. No need to go toe to toe vs Topuria.

Here's jeremypwr's Multi Master...

UFC 308: Multi Master Challenge
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/sportsbetio-ufc-308-multi-master-challenge-26-october-5514116

13. Ilia Topuria
12. Robert Whittaker
11. Dan Ige
10. Magomed Ankalaev
9. Shara Magomedov
8. Rafael dos Anjos
7. Myktybek Orolbai
6. Brunno Ferreira
5. Kennedy Nzechukwu
4. Farid Basharat
3. Rinat Fakhretdinov
2. Ismail Naurdiev
1. Ibo Aslan

But I feel like Holloway could win. Hopefully the Abu Dhabi fans pour more money on Topria so that Holloway's line goes up some more.

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Quote from: l99l on October 21, 2024, 10:35:30 AM

Holloway turns on immortality mode when it comes to standing combat. Holloway has a bad record with Volkonovski, so bettors are very likely to turn to Topuria.
I liked this risk, it's clearly a bit high odds and it sounds good because it's Max.

Even though Holloway has a bad record with Volk, it doesn't mean that Topuria can beat Holloway just because he won against Volk. What makes me support Holloway is because he is the best striker in UFC that I have ever known. Holloway's loss to Volk was via judges' scorecards so if he wants to beat Max I think Topuria has to be able to dominate Max with grappling or striking. Max's striking is absolutely insane. Even Justin Gaethje can be defeated via knockout. I think this fight is tougher for Topuria than his match with Volk.

Topic: The UFC Info and Prediction Thread - page 8. (Read 96818 times)